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The_MonkeyKing

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  1. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  2. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  3. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor;
    Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority)
    I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg".
    In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians.
     
    illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic:

    image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU
  4. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor;
    Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority)
    I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg".
    In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians.
     
    illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic:

    image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU
  5. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor;
    Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority)
    I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg".
    In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians.
     
    illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic:

    image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU
  6. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)
    [EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:
    Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us] The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us] Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us] Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us] RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us] Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us] AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us] AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us] RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us] RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us] Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us] Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us] The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us] Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]
  7. Upvote
  8. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". 
    The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.
  9. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". 
    The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.
  10. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would think Congress might care when the budgets they approve starts living their own life by tens of billions 💸
  11. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No one is claiming the U.S. is run better than Finland, no really we do NOT make that claim. It is just that this rambling wreck of a system has produced the worlds most powerful military, and I simply don't care what budget shenanigans the President has to pull finish beating the Russians in Ukraine. Doubly so when Putin is actively manipulating and funding the worst people in our system.
  12. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Richi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What the is going on here? 
    There are many ways to count the aid value sums. Write-off value on the accounting books, what it cost when it was new, or the cost to replace the given capability. 
    Now the US is changing how it calculates the value. At the start did the US want to exaggerate the aid given for some reason and now thanks to US internal politics they hope to avoid going to legislative to increase the total aid budget? So they start counting in the most "cheap" way.
    In my country, it would be a very big thing when tens of billions of money's appear or disappear from anything government related.
     
  13. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Retired NOAA guy, his maps have maps. A lot of detail worth thinking about. There are even maps of where the roads were before the dam, Which might matter.
    Many, many maps.
  14. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    New toy it seems to be. Here:
     
     
  15. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


    source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20
  16. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


    source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20
  17. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


    source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20
  18. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


    source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20
  19. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.
  20. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from kluge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    or just regular blurred missile
  21. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bearstronaut in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    or just regular blurred missile
  22. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For 4-5 days. Today at 19:00 General Staff again claimed Ka-52 was shot down. The fifth. But still no evidences. Russian TGs like FighterBomber and other tied with helicopters also keep silence
  23. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    News on the possible Merkava deal
     
     
  24. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.
  25. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would guess it is not worth it to hit those helicopters with the current munitions available. 
    Those helicopter bases must be anti-air hardpoints and the helos are dispersed(in the satellites) 100m apart so it would be 1 storm shadow = one destroyed helo + what it takes to penetrate AA.
    The target lists must have lots of higher priority targets for these low-availability high-demand deep strike assets.
    Now GLSDB that would be nice. But still, the copter will just move 50km further back when these arrive to the theater. 
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