Bulletpoint

Usually I ignore most of articles in WP/ NT about Ukraine, because many of them had been written by authors, who worked in Russia or had any relations with Russia and this is not journalistic, but sort of influence on public opinion and to sow scepticism. 
But this is article, despite had been written by "anonimous sources among UKR battalion and company commanders" (if I see "anononimous source", this is 50/50 BS) in whole reflects probably more significant problem, than artillery sjells shortage - the crictical lack of pesonnel in "line units" - those who hold positions and should go forward. Problems with mobilisation and failed information policy of the state in this sector led to army receive too few replenishment. And many of infantry, who come from Ukrainian tarining centers have very weak training. (My addition - existing 151st training center, established by volunteers and saved in endless wars with old soviet dumbs top brass from GS anD MoD gives very food training, but can't reterain more that 2-3 batatlions for one cycle)
In conditions, when units have 30-40 % of personnel, which have no normal rest, we can't think about any offensives, And if this not be solved in short perspective, this with addition of probable US aid termination can lead to very bad consequences
   https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/

This is very sad, but looks like Avdiivka battle comes to the end and, alas, not in our favor (not counting about two divisional vehicle sets, which Russians lost here). 
During last three days Russians captured quarry area on the NE of the town and gained foothold in dachas and first streets of northern part of Avdiivka. Yesterday they broke through overpass bridge in front of coke plant. Also reportedly for last two days Russians dropped on Avdiivka about week amout of gliding bombs. 
110th mech.brigade, defending the town itself is completely exhausted, drone operators almost don't sleep by days - FPV attacks and Mavicks maintaining resistance in conditions of artillery shells shortage. But bad weather in last days limited their flights and this immediately gave opportunity to the enemy, having overhelming advantage in manpower. Russians continuously replenish own troops with fresh meat, they go forward, die and next meat come behind of them, death conveyor is working, but Russians achive own goals in this way. 
Our artillery near Avdiivka keep almost full silence already four days - no shells. So 110th brigade command moved to positions as riflemen almost all rear services soldiers, because no more opportunity except FPVs and contact clashes to hold this horde. 
But not only ammunition shortage led to this situation. 
- OTUV "Tavria" command (gen.Tarnavskyi) again repeated all mistakes of Bakhmut defense. Expecting that Russians will assault stronpoints (like factories in Bakhmut and coke plant in Avdiivka) directly, when they use enough flexible tactic and after first fails attacked on flanks, made many bogus small assaults to confuse about real attack directions
- passivity of OTUV "Tavria" comamnd, as far as before October, when Russians recently captured Krasnohorivka and began to fill this northern "balcony" above Avdiivka with troops. 
- no reserve fortifications on flanks of Avdiivka. Only when Russians crossed railways, we started to establish some positions, but in conditions of unstable weather when frosts change themeselves with rains and mud it was belated idea
- manpower lack and fatigue. 110th brigade two years fights in this place and never was rotated for rest in full composition. Other units, who were moved here from Zaporizhzhia front also weren't rested and replenished after summer clashes, when Russians continously were replenishing own units. 
- weak air defense capabilities. For whole Avdiivka battle Russians lost only one aircraft. 
The map of northern part of Avdiivka for 5-6th of Feb. Avdiivka is on 90 % is private 1-2 storey cottages, only on the south east from coke plant there is small "Khimic" ("Chemestrian") micro-district with multistorey urban type buildings for coke plant employees. These are so-called "Old Avdiivka" and "New Avdiivka"
 

Honestly, I don't know if I would call it "anxiety" but I have had nights where for hours I have been awake thinking about this war.
I understand how important this war is for the direction this world can go, and I will keep following it until it is finished and will keep supporting the good guys in this war no matter how long it takes.
Personally I do recommend once in a while disconnecting from the internet and spending some time with family, go on a hike in the woods or something.
But ultimately compared to Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, I really have nothing to be anxious about.
 

Today we had next missile strike.
Kyiv form 6:00 to 7:30 of morning was under attack too. about 20 missiles were shot down over the city and on approaches. Alas, fragments of one missile hit residental buulding, causing death of four people and wounding of 36.
Two more were wounded in other place, where allegedly newest 3M22 "Zirkon" hypersonic missile hit the ground between two malls. This is in 5 km from my house. In result power lines was damaged, and part of our district was cut off from electricity and heating for several hours (but not our residental area)
The palce of "Zirkon" (ot its fragments) impact - Air Force Command didn't claim intercepted ballistic missiles today, but also didn't mean about "Zirkon" strike.

Allegedly "Zirkon" fragment with 3M22 marking, fouded near the crater. But this marking made like by hand and we have too few information about "Zirkon", so nobody now can't say for shure what type of missile it was. "Zirkon" is newest Russian sea-launched hypersonic missile with probable range 1000-1500 km and 400 kg warheed. It's not adopted yet, but reportedly first usage in Ukriane was on 29th Dec 2023, when it hit Zaporizhzhia. Some later the similar missile hit Dnipro. Curerently unknown what Russian ship on balcj sea or submarine could launch it. Russians tested it with new frigades pr. 22530M "Admiral Grigorovich" and nuclear submarine "Perm' ", but this vessels are from Northern Fleet. Allegedly "Zirkon" can be launched from upgraded launchers for "Onyx" and "Kalibr". Probably it was launced from the ground. 

 Kharkiv also was under attack. Initially all five missiles were claimed as S-300, but later two of them were identified as N.Korean KN-23. 

Mykolaiv. Kh-22 missile hit on the street of private houses. In result of impact 70 houses were damaged, 2 killed, 20 wounded.
 
Result of AD work today (morning info, while weren't clarifications of N.Korean missiles and allegedle "Zirkon"):
20 Shaheds - 15 shot down
29 Kh-101 - 26 shot down
3 Kalibr - 3 shot down
4 Kh-22 - no interceptions
3 Iskander-M - no interceptions
5 S-300 - no interceptions

Exactly one year after the first announcement, the project is now finished. In order to avoid
misunderstandings on the part of the company Battlefront.com, I chose the name CampaignPack 😎.
The pack (as described in former threads) consists of 5 campaigns in which the player is thrown
into the events of the summer of 1944 in the sector of the German Army Group Center.
In total you will play minium 52 single missions, maximum 55 single missions (depending on one
branch). To avoid technical problems, I didn't add any mods to the campaigns. But I can, for example,
highly recommend the excellent work of @JM Stuff, especially his extraordinary mod collection of vehicles
and wrecks 👍
I recently visited the forum regularly to stay in touch with people who wanted to register. However, I have
asked the people at Battlefront.com several times to delete my profile.  This request has not yet been
granted to me, so as a quasi "undead" I will always stop by - but I will no longer take part in any discussions
or answer any questions in the forum. To get in touch with me, please write to me at:
E-Mail: f-s-zbg@web.de.😎
Of course, I can still send the campaign pack to anyone interested.
 
So all I can say is:
It was a great pleasure for me to finish this project and share it with many people.
I hope you have as much fun playing as I did creating it 🙏
 
Best regards
Mr.X 

And if it gets shot down on the way, it will double as a coffin.
A big part of why drones are so successful is that they are so small that they are almost impossible to spot and hit at range. This one, not so much.

Thank you for the well thought out reply. 
#1 As your map suggests. Avdiivka is the closest and it's not out of the question to fire a shell or two into Donetsk. Being that close allows for shorter range to guns or drones to conduct fire missions.
#2 Doesn't matter whether they are new or not. Currently Ukraine can tie up a much greater percentage of Russian manpower with comparatively fewer forces. The question is how dense are the fortifications behind it. If there are none or few behind Avdiivka then Ukraine now has a section of the front that must be much more heavily manned. 
#3 Here's a few examples. These were from a quick google search. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/21/ukrainian-shelling-donetsk-shopping-area
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/21/russia-says-at-least-25-killed-in-blast-at-donetsk-market#:~:text=At least 27 people have,Tekstilshchik on the Ukrainian military.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Donetsk,_Russia
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-shelling-russian-controlled-donetsk/32676019.html
#4 Even the US argued that Ukraine should leave Bakhmut. Multiple Ukrainian officials have lamented that Bakhmut should have been given up earlier to spare manpower.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html
I don't bring these up to celebrate one side or the other just to challenge viewpoints here. I've enjoyed reading the responses even with the insults. 

And if it gets shot down on the way, it will double as a coffin.
A big part of why drones are so successful is that they are so small that they are almost impossible to spot and hit at range. This one, not so much.

And if it gets shot down on the way, it will double as a coffin.
A big part of why drones are so successful is that they are so small that they are almost impossible to spot and hit at range. This one, not so much.

I don't really buy this narrative.
1. It's close enough to the heart of Donetsk to shell/send drones from. This restricts the Russians ability to move and transport supplies up and down the line.
2. The most heavily fortified part of the entire line. You won't find such a large concentration of concrete bunkers after this until you reach the new line they're building farther to the west.
3. The Ukrainians have shelled civilian areas regularly from Avdiivka. As long as it stands the DPR and the civilian population will question Russians commitment to their cause.
Finally, I have a hard time believing Russia is the only one suffering during this battle. It's pretty easy to geolocate equipment losses but what about infantry hit farther behind the line with artillery, thermobarics, glide bombs, FPV drones. This is a fire sac surrounded on three sides.
Whether it's worth it I don't know but we have to stop assuming Russians are stupid. It's counterproductive. If they are spending this much blood and treasure and we don't understand why then there must be something they know that we don't.
 

Brother try to kill brother we live in crazy world . This war have to finish asap 

I have some thoughts about this news, but you'll have to wait a few months until I post them.

We should all be hopeful russia manages to scale up their failing, not just in Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the last stronghold in Donetsk, but failing beyond - that will win the war.
Maybe after losing the battle for Avdiivka, they should lose the battle for operationally insignificant Kupyansk, its only 5km until russia can fail there too.

Despite massive casualties, the Russians keep inching closer to encircling Avdiivka. They are now less than 1 km away from the main road into the city.
To my eyes, the situation doesn't look good. Not sure how the Ukrainians can keep supplying their positions in the fields east of Avdiivka even now.
Time to pull back, or am I overlooking something important here? Apart from the huge Russian losses.

Unfortunately I think it’s further confirmation Avdiivka will eventually be lost. It’s Bakhmut all over again, the Russian advance is slow, and their losses heavy, but they’re consistently gaining a little more ground day by day, and unless Ukraine launches counterattacks to retake lost ground (likely a costly strategy given their materiel inferiority) then the result is inevitable.
It’s honestly painful to watch. The Ukrainians are fighting like lions to defend their country, but unfortunately we happen to live in a time where courage is about as important as the supply of 155mm artillery ammunition. And somehow North Korea is better at helping out the Russians in this way than Ukraine’s western allies…

I am also a bit underwhelmed.
I use CM to experiment with the engine, explore game mechanics and use it as a TO&E reference. As such scenario packs are useless to me.
The new expansion is very close to a scenario pack with how little units it adds.

To be honest, I find myself somewhat underwhelmed by this expansion. The content I have tried so far is fine, but it falls short of expectations in terms of scale.
What it is missing is that "big thing" that gets you excited about it. In Fire and Rubble that was the Volkssturm stuff, which was completely new to CM and really unique. Downfall is a big content upgrade to Final Blitzkrieg, but in terms of the Combat Mission series as a whole, it does not actually add that much new stuff, with most of the formations and assets being ported over from other game families. Sure, the Volkssturm guys are still cool, but certainly not new anymore and frankly, I find it a bit weird that Downfall leans so heavily on those scenario and campaign wise, considering that they tended to surrender or go home on the western front, compared to the east.
Obviously there is not much new stuff you can realistically do with the Germans, but if you had asked me about this module before it came out, I would have bet that the new "big thing" was amphibious vehicles and river crossings, the capability of which exists in the engine, with various LVTs, maybe footbridges and campaigns at Walcheren and during Operation Varsity to use these new systems. That would have been cool and exciting and, at least to me, the obvious direction for the game to take. All of this is completely absent though. I guess the Schwimmwagen was added, but no allied amphibious gear? This timeframe would also be perfect for adding Commandos and Rangers (which already exist in Italy BTW).
There are the new super late war vehicles and weapons like the Pershing and Comet, but even in that area there is lots of unused potential that would have made the module feel way more unique and interesting. Just from the top of my head: Sherman Tulips, Sherman Crocodiles with fuel trailers (used at Juelich, another river crossing), Super Pershing... personally I am more of an infantry guy, so for those few of us: Why not add M1 Carbines modified for full auto capability, a common field modification, with kits being shipped officially?
I could even think of some more German stuff that could be used to spice those up a bit, like the PAW-600 AT gun that was actually used at the Aller against British forces. In a similar vain, heavy AA gun formations that the allies overran (anti bomber positions), 10.5cm, 12.8cm AA guns... Maybe the 8.8cm improvised AT guns made from unused Jagdpanther guns, used at the "Düren belt"? And of course, since the MP40 was being phased out of production, some Beretta M38/42 for the Volksgrenadiers.
Anyway, my point is, the module feels light on exciting new content and like more could have been done with the scenario.

Forbs article claims Russian Lancets attacks were significantly reduced since September 2023, presumably because of August explosion on Zagorovskiy optic&mechanical factory, which produced cameras for Lancets.

I think the only real advantage shells still have is that they have much longer range than the average small drone.

After reading this, I think Zelensky would be a fool to dismiss him.

"avoid"?

Well the market is shrinking for them with this 10 year old engine. Their call.

That's not true at all.
What actually happened was that there was initially some quite polite discussion about how it should work, both from a historical and gameplay perspective.
But then very quickly, MikeyD stepped in and said uncontrolled air support in Normandy was actually an unintentional change in CMBN. It was then quickly reverted to how it used to be with a patch.
 
 
 

@Bearstronaut:
Of course 👍🏻
There will be a last (small) delay of maximum 1-2 weeks🙏🏼 Sorry for that, but reworking some missions costs more time than expected and I want to give you high quality content. 
 
Regards 
Mr.X