Hister

This is why we need new folks, they keep us on point by (re)asking the central questions. So what happens next?
No idea.  I have ideas, opinions and what my instincts are saying but I really do not know.  In my thinking the main effort here is to create a mental framework that allows us to understand what we are seeing, when it happens.  As we confirm phenomenon a lot of other realities die quickly.  For example, we knew about 3-4 days into this war that it was not going to be quick because all the observable phenomenon killed that reality, it collapsed into unreality and fantasy.  
So what am I looking for now?
Strategically - The major shift and re-framing of strategic ends by Russia clearly signaled a change in negotiation position.  Ukraine's increasing strength in dictation of the terms they will accept was another signal.  We should keep an eye on this as it will continue to evolve; negotiation positions are directly tied to viable options (which I have gone on about at length) and as options spaces collapse or expand negotiation positions shift.  Further it is a sign of confidence in those options, we have seen Russia shift its negotiation position dramatically in this war: hard-medium-softer-hard.  That last "hard" negotiating position was the last we heard, likely because Putin thinks his current offensive options will give him what he needs now that the political ends have been conveniently reframed.  So for the strategic, track the options and negotiation positions.
Operationally - There is an indicator here that we have not discussed much but for what is coming will be important: decisions.  A "decision" in military terms seems simple on the surface but it is in fact very complex.  Basically a "decision" is the "death of alternatives" or a collapsing point of options.  Germans lost at Stalingrad, Russians won = German strategic offensive options die in the East...forever (insert ironic trombone sound).  This is primarily how conventional operational military planning thinks, in terms of lines of effort/operations that link "decisions" together in a linked framework that creates a successful outcome - victory (yay!).  These are what I refer to as "positive decisions".
However, in the wacky world of warfare, there are more than "positive decisions".  There are at least two, maybe three more types: null, negative and strange.  A null decision is basically a "non-decision" or an undecidable condition.  It can be generated and projected.  Ukrainian defence has been a master class in the projection of null-decisions onto an opponent; the Ukrainian approach has left the Russian military machine unable to solve for X operationally.  The end result of all those unsolvable decision spaces, along with attrition, create positive decisions for the Ukrainian defence when the entire Russian operational offensive collapsed - so you can see how this can get complex fast.
Wait, there is more!  All human decisions are metastable, which is a fancy word for "semi-permanent but subject to review".  So it is possible to "undecide" something within human perception and cognition to very real effect.  For example, SOF's primary contribution to warfare is not primarily positive decision space, or even null -they contribute here but this is not home turf - they are at home in creating negative decision, or undeciding things.  Classic example is the SOE in WW2.  Its job was not to create positive decisions in Western Europe, it was to "undecide German victory and control" - in the minds of the home front in the UK, the populations in Europe and in the minds of the Germans themselves.  Through demonstration-thru-communication (e.g. raids) the SOE did a lot of damage to German reality in undeciding things.  I am not going to get into Strange but it speaks to a human ability to "remember the future" and relative rationality, but let's leave off that one.
So what? Well for the upcoming fight in the SE, I will be looking for decisions (all types) at the operational level.  The Russians need positive, the UA will likely project null and negative on that...right up to a moment when they think they can get positive ones of their own.  The playout of that decision space will be key in reading the operational flow of things.  Next question is "which ones", well that could fill a separate post but for the Russians is likely means a decisive use of mass to pull off this pincer movement they are lining up, and then resist the UA c-moves. However, we will likely see a lattice work of decisions form up, the shape of that will dictate how things are really going.
Tactical.  Steve covered off a lot of this already.  I will add:
- Russian Mass - will it start working again?  Because it has failed (erm) decisively, so far.   Is there a tipping point in this war where mass will still work?  I suspect yes, but can the Russians build it and project it effectively?  This includes some sort of re-invention of combined arms and joint integration, which Russia desperately needs to create any of those operational decisions I was talking about.
- Russian Fragility - A tactical warfighting unit, within a formation system is a complex beast.  It has redundancies built in but it takes years to build an effective tactical unit and minutes to destroy it.  The Russian war machine has been severely beat up.  Estimates are now circling 25% losses for the initial invasion force. Normally it would take months to re-constitute damage like this and Russia is going to make a run at fixing it in days/weeks.  This will mean the Russian machine going into this phase is more fragile than the first attempt.  What remains unknown is what offsets the Russians have been able to bring to bear for this, if any.
- Ukrainian Friction - What has been amazing to watch in this war is the Ukrainian ability to create and project friction.  This is a primary role in defence, along with attrition but the breadth and scope that Ukrainian defence has been able to project friction in all domains has been breathtaking. Ukrainian defence has been able to create friction across the entire length and breadth of the Russian offensive.   If they can keep that up tactically, they will likely simply grind this next Russian offensive to a halt.
- Ukrainian Mass - they have conventional mass in this fight but are using it judiciously.  I suspect the UA is waiting for its moment, and if it times it right, it will be spectacular.
Beyond these big ticket items, we should be looking out for shifts in equipment and vehicles.  More T90s (and T-14...everyone wants to see a tractor pull on that one) or T62s all start to show something.  Cannon fodder troops in front with the good ones in the back will likely be the order of march, massed dumb artillery fire across broad frontage with little precision.  All this sort of stuff adds up, along with mass surrenders and uncontrolled movements. 
Anyway, strap in because we should see at least a few more big muscle movements before this thing winds down, or falls apart on the Russian side.  How this goes will determine if a stalemate option is even on the table for Russia and what the end-game will look like.  I still consider this the "posturing for end-game" phase with Russia racing for some sort of stalemate and Ukraine not letting them.
Either way, we will be here doing this for the duration.

To get the campaign ribbon you have to read all 500 pages.  Good luck.

For me, that sums it up nicely 😉
I will also add the spectacular destruction of the Orsk (Russian Landing Ship) at Berdiansk, which is one of the images of the week

Seems like the Russian operational concept (the deep battle-style offensive) is totally spent. Havn't seen much in the way of broad-frontage attacks in weeks. Strong indications now that the Russian army is switching over to defensive warfare and is digging in everywhere. The key exception is Mariupol, which the Russians have encircled and besieged. In the last few days they have been like the snake slowly squeezing the city to death. Ukrainian defenders have held out stubbornly and as far as I can tell are fighting for just about every block. Russian troops are continuing to gain ground however, and things are looking bleak for the city. Some scuttlebutt suggests a potential Russian 'out' (one that the west nor Kyiv will surely accept) is the annexation of Kherson, Mariupol, and the Donbas back to Russia. 
Regarding the UA, things continue to go well for them. However the counterattacks that I have seen have so far remained tactical in nature. Vigorous action has kept the Russians from encircling Kyiv like they did with Mariupol, and potentially in the future we will see this transition into much broader pushes against Russian positions. Some here think that the UA will fight well against Russian defensive positions thanks to their knowledge of the terrain, western ATGMs, and of course the tremendous ISR advantage they have thanks to drones and the west. Potentially this would allow them to map out Russian positions in greater detail than either the Russian commander is aware of and then attack and destroy them. Like I said, I personally haven't seen any signs of anything quite like that happening. Yet. 
I would describe the last few days as both sides having reach a general operational equilibrium. Russia can no longer push forward and seize substantial amounts of ground, the UA for various reasons has not yet. Given how it looks like this war is going, I dont think were quite ready yet for a cease fire. I've read some talk that basically Russia is still non-serious re: terms. So the fighting will continue and we shall see which side is able to break this short term equilibrium. Re: Signs of collapse? I think many of the indicators remain that Russia is on the brink of a bad place. But IMO they have neither move closer nor further from the edge. They are, however, slowly grinding themselves into a find powder. Collapses are one of those things, before they happen its all so theoretical and subjective. Nobody can really say 'collapse today.' But once it happens then everyone will turn around and look at the road weve traveled and say 'see, I told you!' Right now were still, unfortunately, looking forward. 
To everyone whose been reading through, how'd I do? 

The high points of my recollection:
"They sunk my landing ship". A decent sized RUS naval transport got "burned to the waterline" in port, probably while unloading.
More RUS generals got geeked.
The southern advance towards Odessa has pretty much been called off, and UKR might even have pushed back towards Mikolayiv.
In the Kyiv area, there are reports that a handful of RUS combat groups are pocketed NW of the capital, and further reports of territorial gains for UKR some 70km NorthEast(ish) of Kyiv.
Mariupol refused to surrender, is now fully invested and being bombarded into rubble.
The Belarusians continue to prevaricate.
The Donbass separatist areas are calling up lots of people they shouldn't have to, and feeding them into the meatgrinder. Russia is bringing in troops from other hotspots and recruiting Syrians to fill up their depleted ranks. It doesn't seem to be doing much good. 
All in all, the general prospects for UKR look about how Steve and the Capt. called it a couple of weeks ago, and the cracks in the RUS war machine are becoming more evident as time passes.
One UKR tractor has been disabled by a landmine. The war is over.

Probably the easiest process for you going forward is to "follow" posts by:
@Haiduk for videos, confirmation of events/units
@The_Capt for analysis and overview 
@Battlefront.com for analysis and compare/contrast with expected events v. Actual v. CMBS 
@sburke for lists of RUS officers squished
Me because I'm fecking hilarious (screw you guys I am).
 

Update on the mystery Croatian Tu-141 drone crash from the Wikipedia summary
 

Thats it. Pack it in. When youve Arnie turns against you thats it. 
(Sorry if this was posted before) 

You missed the point.  A coup represents Ukraine not being a successful democracy.  Democracies don't settle political discussions with military coups.  For Russia the failure of democracy is EXACTLY what they want in Ukraine.

The help of our ancestors. It's became knowingly, several days ago Russian forward groups, searching the ways couldn't overcome ancient Serpent Ramparts (ukr. Zmiyevi valy) near Bilihorodka village,west from Kyiv. Theese ramparts were built in 10-11th centuries against steppe nomads attacks on the base of more early fortifiacations.
They girds Kyiv outskirts from the west to southern east in several lines. This was huge alot of work in that times. Now many of them plowed up, but theese save itself and came useful again since 1000 years
   

Ha, they must have been playing Spintires/Mudrunner games where one can often get out of such muddy predicament and thought it will be all swell in the end.

Here's my analysis:
Wikipedia lists the following details
Taking that speed and those timings, that's about 35km through Romanian airspace, 470km through Hungarian and 80km through Croatia, ending at Zagreb. The Tu-141 has a range of around 1000km, although that looks rounded off and is also going to depend on weather conditions etc.
Taking all that at face value, 1000km in a straight line doesn't put it anywhere inside Ukraine that Russia could have launched it. Vinnytsia is about as far into Ukraine. Since it is essentially a cruise-missile it doesn't have to travel in a straight line though, but obviously that gives it the furthest range. Transnistria might just about be a possibility if you definitely want it to be a Russian launch, but it looks far more likely that it was Ukrainian.

There is an opinion that was confused objectives for this UAV. It had to fly in Yarun village area in Zhytomyr oblast, but probably in its navigation system were mistakingly eneterd coordinates of Jarun town in Croatia. UAV flew through two countries, WAS NOT SPOTTED BY NATO AIR DEFENSE (or spotted, but without reaction) and fell after the fuel was wasted. Which Tu-141 could belng is an open question. There is no good photos of wreck with markings. Reportedly locals say there was somesing like red stars painting fragments, but there is no photos.
Russia also is operator of Tu-141, but I don't know they really in service (this UAV is good SAM training target, imitating the cruise missile) or in reserve. 

Personnaly, I think it is a russian or LNR/DNR action. It could be captured UAVs and used for intels and testing the NATO defenses. Or also a threat to eastern Europe countries. A way to say, "we can hit you when we want". Isn't false flag attacks a speciality of the russians ? It also could be a way for russians to say "you see ukrainians are poor allies", it's ridiculous but everything Russia do since the beginning is ridiculous (eg laboratories, warcrimes, rush, bad logistic etc).

Yes great interview. The very end where she is asked how dangerous Putin is right now is pretty scary.

@Hister, thank you. That's an incredible interview.

Well, the catch is you winch your truck out of mud in Spintires / Mudrunner (which is obviously way more comfortable on your PC than irl), or get another truck to tow you out. As discussed by a US veteran in the thread below, the Russian military is simply abandoning vehicles in running condition once they get stuck, which is something they deal with all the time even in peacetime:
This thread also made me appreciate the importance of recovery AFVs, which get overlooked when playing with the 'glory boys' in CM.

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.
I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.
 
Also, what is the consensus of you guys - was the soviet era unmanned survaillance plane that crashed in Zagreb, Croatia, owned by Russia or Ukraine? 
 

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.
I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.
 
Also, what is the consensus of you guys - was the soviet era unmanned survaillance plane that crashed in Zagreb, Croatia, owned by Russia or Ukraine? 
 

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.
I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.
 
Also, what is the consensus of you guys - was the soviet era unmanned survaillance plane that crashed in Zagreb, Croatia, owned by Russia or Ukraine? 
 

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.
I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.
 
Also, what is the consensus of you guys - was the soviet era unmanned survaillance plane that crashed in Zagreb, Croatia, owned by Russia or Ukraine? 
 

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.
I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.
 
Also, what is the consensus of you guys - was the soviet era unmanned survaillance plane that crashed in Zagreb, Croatia, owned by Russia or Ukraine? 
 

This is a superb walk through Putin's regime. Julia knows her stuff and has a lot of contacts in the Russian government. Really quite good.

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next:
 

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next: