Hister

Excellent Kamil thread about actual and potential unrest in Central Asia. He seems to think there is a non zero chance of a near complete melt down

Since we are almost 1000 pages in, I was wondering if a few guys could post some links to previous posts in this thread that are:
The most important/informative The most predictive of what would or did happen Those of strategic importance  I ask because some folks have recently joined us here and may need to do some catching up. 1000 pages is A LOT of catching up to do. Please upvote if this would be useful to you. 
Thanks a bunch!
Probus

russians leaving Snake Island as an "act of good will" is unfortunate.
We wish they'd rather stay.
Our HIMARS crews need training.

Nevzorov is an imperialist, who 'made' putin by working as his trusted propagandist for more than a decade and also running his elections campaigns from time to time. In fact Nevzorov said he owes putin as much for saving his life in the 90s.
So as a major state propagandist - he's directly responsible for every single russian war since 1991 and in case of Ukraine - directly responsible for all the dehumanization of Ukrainians before 2014, and even after - as he was working on ORT as Ernst's advisor up until at least 2016.
Now he just runs that "good russian" psyop we all know and don't love.
(Also he's a war criminal in Lithuania for that little thing he did in Vilnius in 1991 together with other red army soldiers)
Him getting our citizenship is thus very disgraceful and is the result of that internal struggle where the pro-russian lobby* I mentioned before scored a win. He will certainly lose that citizenship after the war's won.
* In Ukraine we still have a strong corrupt lobby that doesn't want EU/NATO and would instead have close ties with a "reasonable" Russia and they see it as one being run by people like Nevzorov, which is, of course, a huge delusion based on not wanting to change - and such delusions die hard.

This is a translation of that tweet thread?
Lot to unpack here and I am not sure I agree with all of it - for example we have no idea what the Russian losses around Severodonetsk have been, so “minimizing risk for gain” could be way off.
One thing I do not see on the Russian side is an actual strategy.  For example, if the strategic end is to “take the Donbas and declare victory”, what is the Russian plan for the very real possibility that Ukraine won’t let them hold it?  Russian strategy has been and continues to be in this war, entirely in isolation of reality and largely based on hope.
Do they hope Ukraine has had enough and taps out?  Do they somehow figure they can call the Donbas “mother Russia” and go nuclear?  The reality is that it is taking just about everything the Russian have to take very small chunks of ground right now.  I do not think they will be able to actually take the Donbas, Luhansk maybe, but not Donetsk; however, even if they do will they have broken the will of Ukraine to resist?  The West?
The West cannot not allow Russia to gain from this in anyway.  Russia at a min must be economically punished, back to 2014 lines or better and with new internal power structure, one we can actually negotiate with, in place. If we cannot do that the western global order has failed…and China is watching. 
Ukraine has all the hallmarks of a nation that has embraced a war to the point it is now part of their culture.  You do not defeat a nation in this state by taking a few hundred square kilometres of real estate, you would need to break their backs and shatter that unity or completely exhaust them.   So long as the West keeps supporting, Ukraine will keep fighting…and we have reason to keep supporting.  
So back to Russian long game…and we have been over this.  How do they defend what they have taken while Ukraine continues to mobilize and modernize, and they are heading in the opposite direction?  How does Russian defend an extremely long front without enough troops against a very motivated opponent with increasing capability?  Beyond that, how does Russia renormalize to remove sanctions, scare Sweden and Finland away from NATO, get NATO national to not spend trillions on defence and wipe humanities memory of their complete gong show so they can re-emerge as a great power?
Short answer is that they cannot.  At best, the Russian government may convince or cow enough domestic population in order to stay in power and basically get to sit at the same lunch table as North Korea for the next 25 years.  That or we fail and the global order and all it pays for is at risk - and for the record, this is what happens when you let things slide.  We failed in 2014 and here we are, we fail again and what does 2030 look like?

It did happen, they were going to Kyiv with russians, but when the first shots started flying - Belarusian army turned tail and ran away. They didn't expect a shooting war, just a safe ride to Kyiv (like wha-?). Apparently Lukashenko himself didn't expect it will be so serious, as he himself stated at one point that the war will last hours. They did treat us as just being there for the taking.
But very small amounts of belarusian soldiers did remain and took part in committing war crimes near Kyiv.

Russian propaganda pearls:
23rd of June. In red circle a number of destroyed UKR artillery/mortar systems

24th of June.

3002 - 2088 = 914 artillery systems for one day!
 

This is the first time I've seen a thread with over 1 million views.  Amazing conversation, amazing and insightful contributors.  Must be the best non-professional source on the war online.

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

There are 35 Yugoslaviam made BVP M80A's on their way to Ukraine from Slovenia. These were Yugoslavian knockoffs from Soviet BMP -1's. In exchange US gave Slovenia founds to buy military material from them. Good bussiness for both countries (dependance on spare parts).
Up to 50 Yugoslavian made and upgraded T-84 tanks are in the pipeline to be sent too. Not sure how thise would compare to Oplots. 
Slovenia already sent lots of kalashnikovs, helmets, bullet proof vests and other military equipment to Ukraine but I am now really happy we upped the ante. 
I personally delivered lots of medical equipment to Ukrainian embassy here. Now I am at peace.
 
 

This portion of his latest post is worth a read:
 

So it seems Putin's plan is to get the little bit of Donbas that hasn't been taken so he can declare victory, then attempt to freeze the status quo.  He'll talk about wanting cease fire, peace, etc, and will hope that bribing enough politicians and influencers in the west will sway public opinion to a negotiated settlement w RU keeping all their stolen land. 
Then he'll go return to his ongoing efforts to subvert democracy in the west (via social media and bribery) as he's done for a long time now, which is certainly cheaper than war and has nearly zero risk. 
 

I am not Steve and for sure I can be wrong but:
According to famous rant of Murz published at the beginning of June the greater part of available fighting-capable RU infantry is either killed or wounded... Within month or two [means July-August] either Mobilization starts or there will be shameful peace...defeat.
Given stated losses normal country would already start to retreat in May as per Steve prediction. But Russia is a pressure cooker. It will stay visibly intact longer than other countries. Then it is going explode. Given Murz statement it should be July-August.
 
 
 

I don't see it happen, but hopefully Steve and the other experts are right.

Some frontline news:
Mariupol. After a time of next ultimatum has gone Russians hammered Azovstal with FAB-3000 from Tu-22M3 and heavy artillery (maybe 2S4 240 mm siege mortars too). Azov command made a statement the plant territory almost all ruined, they try to take out survived people, dead and wounded from ruins. Russians at this moment don't advance forward. About 1000 civilaians hide in plant undergrounds   
Zaporizhzhia axix: Russians throughout the day desparately attacked our troops in Huliaypole area to establish better conditions to the entering in the battle rest of forces, but hadn't sucess.
Velyka Novosilka axis (JTO south): Russians decided outflank our troops west from this settlement and to breakthrough between Huliaypole and Velyka Novosilka. They advanced from Liubymivka to the line of ponds and the dam near Temyrivka village
JTO: Russians could take Maryinka under own control, but our forces after regrouping counter-atatcked and retaken the settlement. In Rubizhne all attempts of enemy to move further where repelled. Now Russians and separs control about half of the city. Calshes around Kreminna.
Kherson oblast: Russians launched attack on the north of Kherson oblast to take back positions, lost in previuous weeks, but hadn't success
Kharkiv oblast: multiple attempts of small armored battlegroups to infiltrate through our positions and find the hole in our defense - no success.