Petrus58

Hmm, my comment about the US soldier not speaking Ukrainian has sparked a discussion in a direction that was not intended at all.
What I meant is that I was surprised that he was so unprepared in the language department. He knew he was going to a foreign country where he likely needed to communicate with people who don't speak English. In highly critical situations where your life depends on it. 100 words, no grammar, will get you through anything.
This was not meant as a quip at US language education in general.

I want to add a clarification here, because I do not think that is a correct representation of the situation.
There is nothing that remotely resembles a "total Western blackout" on their economy.
Maybe you were thinking of the war economy, so military or dual-use goods, but even there it is not the case.
What the sanctions have done is reduce Russian export revenue - significantly. However, that affects only money. Money, however, is not a significant resource for a war economy because Russia can just force its population to work under threat of violence or make school classes build thousands of drones (as is happening right now) as a patriotic afternoon activity.
There are sanctions which are, probably, well observed. This includes things like *ponders list* the export of exotic woods from Belarus and the import of a specific sort of champagne older than 14.6 years from France to Russia (14.5 years is okay though)
Basically the entire rest of the civilian economy of Russia outside petro industries is completely excempt from sanctions, by design. That is why Western companies are the largest tax income contributors for the Russian state through business conducted within the territory of Russia. Whichever Western companies voluntarily reduced their engagement in Russia results in their personnel and machinery in Russia being seized and production continued under local management. A disruption of sorts, but not a significant one - especially since machine maintenance and SW support by Western companies usually continues.
This, again, affects money, which, as I admitted, is of limited importance and as I said, it is possible that when you said economy you specifically meant only the military-industrial complex.
Otherwise the material conditons of Russia for the war have improved.
Let me emphasize that for effect, because it might be something many people do not realise:
The material conditions of the Russian military industrial complex have *improved* since the beginning the war.
Let me explain: What Russia does not receive are ready-to-use Western weapons or systems, which they can just point at Ukraine and push a button. That is indeed a sanction which is being observed quite well.
Everything below that level is almost entirely accessible to Russia.
Russia receives more component materials now than before the war when it comes to electronics, chips and other parts. 
Yes, the cost per unit is increased because they have to route it e.g. via the Maledives and arrange payment via Switzerland. But the flow of material dual-use goods is entirely *unimpeded*. (asterisks for special effects). This flow, albeit rerouted, is *larger* in 2023 than it was before Feb 2022.
And in addition to that, the material and electronics import from China has *skyrocketed* for Russia, including production means and machines, and add to that some know-how and stuff from Iran and other smaller rogue states.
That's why I say that, material wise, the Russian war economy has improved its conditions,  even if the monetary situation has worsened overall (which I do not think is overly significant for the Russian society in its current state), and I think this should be kept in mind when analyzing the situation.

Not to provoke anyone with this statement but I currently see Russia winning.
Why? I'm not a Putin troll, I don't believe in the Russian Master Plan™ that has some 1 mio men waiting behind the Ural equipped with T-14 or similar nonsense. I also don't think the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed because they lost a few Leopards and aren't yet on the way to Moscow. (Edit: Oh, and of course, there is no infinite pool of bodies Russia can throw at Ukraine!) I see that the war itself isn't really going well for Russia.
It seems to me, though, yeah weird thought in one of the largest conventional wars of the last decades, that this conflict has become kind of asymmetrical in nature. Because, like in guerilla warfare, currently Russia wins by not losing while Ukraine loses by not winning.
As long as Russia somehow manages to stay in the war they win. And "stay in the war" could even mean Ukraine regained all their territory but the Russian army still remains a threat and there is no formal peace treaty. A smoldering or even a frozen conflict still means no NATO and/or EU membership for Ukraine. It also means no or reduced foreign investments to rebuild Ukraine. And I think (but maybe the experts can chime in) that is enough for the current regime to sell the ongoing war to the general population. Keeping the Nazis out of NATO or something. The part of the Russians that's not just apathetic seems to actually support the war. Sure, hard to tell in Russia but even many "Spätaussiedler" (people from Russia with German roots) who immigrated to Germany and other Russian immigrants here seem to be on board with that way of thinking.
On the other hand, we all think that Western support for Ukraine will eventually shrink especially if we don't see significant progress. There is also the uncertainty of the upcoming US presidential election. So while militarily time is on Ukraines side for now, overall I think Ukraine is running against the clock.
So, anything short of a regime change or a total collapse of the Russian army that makes it absolutely clear that Russia won't be a threat for the next one or two decades has the potential to eventually lead to a Russian "victory". Sure, Putin seems to have lost power but there is no guarantee that a successor would stop the war. We are also seeing cracks in the Russian armed forces but given that we've been speculating on a collapse soon™ for around a year now, that seems a bit too optimistic, too. We have also discussed direct Western interventions and (generally) come to the conclusion that this isn't going to happen for various reasons.
Sorry for this bleak outlook. You may now start throwing stones. Seriously, though, what am I missing?

I have dropboxed my new Bénouville building skins and Kohlenklau's mod-tagged Horsa model and skin to Shane to u/l them to the FGM Mods Warehouse. As soon as that is done I will upload my first two OperationTonga scenarios (Operation Coup de Main historical and Operation Coup de Main - What If?) to the Scenario Depot. The scenarios need the building skins and Horsa mod for an authentic look.

Here is Kohlenklau's Horsa glider integrated into my "Operation Coup de Main" (the original name for Operation Deadstick) and with his icon enlarged and recoloured.

I recall, when doing research for CM Cold War, I stumbled on a US Pentagon estimate that they expected to lose some 30% of their ground attack aircraft within the first two weeks of a 'hot' war. What would follow those losses I assume would have likely resembled current aircraft use over Ukraine today. Look back to reports on this thread of the staggering losses of Russian aircraft and crews over Ukraine the first third of the war. Each lost SU-27 cost approx $30 million USD. Overflying enemy airspace is an expensive proposition. And that was before Patriot showed up. I'm reminded of horrific US helicopter losses over Vietnam in the 1960s. After your 5,000th helicopter got shot down you might want to rethink your 'combined arms' theories.

Apparently the West's 'boil the frog' strategy has been so successful even some of its own citizens haven't noticed how much they've committed...
Russia crossed a red-line on February 24th, 2022.  It's been discussed on this board that, despite the obvious failings in the Russian invasion plan, they probably would have eventually succeeded if they has been fighting against Ukraine alone.  Historic levels of Western support have turned that into what will almost certainly be a crushing defeat for Russia.  What about that makes you think Russia are getting away with anything at all, here?  What exactly do you think the Russians have control of?  They are still humans, they still have agency of their own and they do not seem to be in the mood to compromise.  They will therefore continue to do stuff we don't like for a while, yet.  That's life.  No stopping it.
Fixed that for you.
EU membership is not a prize owed to anyone.  That's not how it works.  If you want to join you have to meet all the strict economic entry conditions, regardless of which war you just fought.  Being a good friend isn't enough; just ask Turkiye.
And I must have missed the bit where someone belonging to either NATO or the EU argued that we should let any warcrimes slide...?
 
Seriously, I get that the war is frustrating and we'd all like it to be over tomorrow but that just isn't going to happen.  Please, unless we have specific, realistic ideas to add to the discussion can we dial down the daily temper-tantrums and lashing-out at the West for not snapping its fingers and making the bad man go away?
 
Also, as a genuine aside, has anyone else noticed that parties who are accused of being "spineless" in almost any context often seem to end up winning?

See, this is what worries me.
Russian commanders and troops refusing bad orders is bad for Ukraine.
The incompetence of the MoD is a big factor of why the war has been going like it has been going.
Dead Russians is the current measuring stick for deoccupation efforts. 
When Russian soldiers refuse meat assaults, but instead stay on the defense, this makes the Ukrainian job harder, not easier. 
When Russian soldiers abbandon soviet-style "obey the written letter" military planning, this makes the Ukrainian job harder, not easier.
This is not a 1917 situation, with disillusioned, hungry Russian soldiers wanting to get home.
It is disillusioned, hungry Russian soldiers beginning to refuse orders so that they can stay in Ukraine longer and kill Ukrainians better. 
Of course, disruptions of official chain of command is not a net positive for an army. But in this particular case of today's Russian Army, it might not be a net negative either.
The most dangerous formations on the Russian side are volunteers who modernise, teach, fundraise, build drones and act with initiative. With the authority of the MoD eroding, these volunteers will gain influence, not lose it. 
This is the difference between that one Russian throwing a jammed gun away while defending a trench and having a gun that works. And some guys with FPV drones that fly into the Ukrainian attack squad. Yes, most of the Russian platoon is still useless and cowers in the dugout. But it is nonetheless a possibility for accumulated small improvements.
To clarify, because that seems to have been the impression from my "paranoid post", I am not saying this will suddenly turn the Russian Army into a vastly improved fighting force and makes them suddenly win the war and parade through Kyiv in 2024.
I think this will draw the war out. It moves the needle more towards standstill. It costs more Ukrainian lives - even if the overall outcome down the line is not significantly changed.

Word. It'd be nice if Starmer would keep him as Defence, when the Tories cave at the next election (to leave Labour or a Coalition holding the nasty, badly-cared-for crack baby that the economy will be by then) but that simply isn't going to happen.  
Stupid party politics.
 

One would think that totalitarian empire keeping largest mechanized force on this planet in constant readiness for 45 years, with only one goal in mind- offensive (preferably over nuked battlefield), would be enough to convince some people Russians indeed were/are a threat to the West as well. This studio even made entire game about it.
Just to give addendum to previous discussion about validity of muscovite danger. Since perhaps many viewers of this forum not reading Russian are not familiar with state of collective current Russian psyche, as expressed in myriads of their TV channels, internet discussons on media platforms as well as in private conversations, it is worth to reitorate how things stand now:
1. Large swath of population seems to be convinced they already wage kinetic war with NATO, but limited in scope to Ukraine. Kinetic, not just proxy- NATO officers and special forces are everywhere in banderistan, according to them. This notion is far more widespread than just core nationalists; it is common among less literate strata of population, probably a minority but still large, maybe 20-40% overall (no hard and undisputable sociological data make assessment difficult). But surely many more than 50% are at least convinced this is purely defensive (= rightous or even holy) war ont heir behalf that West started, though. For quite many Russians hot "war with NATO", even if geographically limited*, wouldn't be totally new quality, but just formalization of current state of affairs. Many would probably even be relieved in that case- mental blocks nurished by propaganda of Great War for motherland, heroic soldiers, imagined social solidarity would finally fit in right place. It is minority of population, but growing.
*Yes- basically CMBS setting.
2. I don't even enumerate soft actions like spy attacks, use of nerve agents on foreign soil (let's count this as "Whoopsie..."), countless provocation by planes and ships, political meddling, etc. Many of them in other historical context, and with actors less patient than the Western states, could lead to war by themselves.
3. They made artificial flood on largest river in Europe, stationed tanks in the centre of Chernobyl zone and are possibly not far from considering blowing another nuclear power plant.
4. Western Europe in popular Russian imagination (especially older generations) starts on Elbe, not even Odra river. Just a reminder for our German friends. Reason? Beginning of this post. ^
5. Again, perhaps many people are unfamiliar with Russian media (or understandably unwilling to dive in this sewer)- potentiall use of WMD was long ago inernalized and is opnely being discussed daily. To the point they have special programms in public TV (with folks who claim to personally dine with the Tsar) dedicated only to this issue of "preventive" nuclear attacks, with real specialists discussing potentiall fallout, how many nukes would be needed to blow off Amsterdam, Hague ("Hehe, you know why..."  as Skabaieva once giggled joyously with her guests) or London. Highest Russian officials, including twice the president of this country, routinely throw their nuclear phantasies publically. Public, sory for words, intellectual mastrubation with Cossacs drinking their horses in Paris 200 years ago or Soviet Army soldiers "teaching German women proper behaviour" in 1945 are part of very normal, mainstream discourse now.
Now of course this is internal game and a pose to bargain something, one could say; they surely really don't mean it, right? Perhaps. But sole fact that nuclear devastation became a casual topic they are very proud upon, touched even during morning breakfast with kids or being shared by Russian teenagers with girlfriends in chats, should make us much more worried of Russia than we did for last 30 years. I am pretty sure many professional people dealing with MAD in Washington and other places are scratching their heads how to proprely assess what is real in this nev environment, and how to differentiate between real and token danger. Muscovia AD 2023 is much less predicatble even than late Soviet Union in this respect. Especially after we saw how its internal system of power is vulerable in last months.
So yeah- even if you live in charming Provence countryside, well-connected commercial megalopolis like Amsterdam/London/Berlin or some Greek island- it doesn't matter, Russian madness and never satisfacted urge to being proper Empire can reach you in various ways.  Don't fool yourself folks; there are many more ways to do this than just conventional military power.
 
Sorry for long post. As a bonus, clip of Kornets bouncing off of Leopards 2A6 :
 

Yeah. Brexit and Trump presidency (and the following stuffing of US Supreme Court with political candidates) were both Russia's misinformation handiwork and caused untold damage to the impacted nations and rest of the West.
Russia is lucky to have their nuclear weapons, otherwise the Kremlin wouldn't be standing right now, given how little the US invaded places in the past.
ETA: also if we're looking at how Russia always invaded places to defend itself, I'd like to add how Russia was savagely attacked by Czechoslovakia in 1968 by horrible weapon of liberalising the regime a little bit.

Is your argument that Western European nations in World War 2 were simply too nice to fight against the Germans and that their more-or-less united stance against the use of DPICM today is a further display of the same 'lack or moral fibre'?
Really?
Is it just for convenience that you omit the fact that the only nation to fight Nazi Germany for the entirety of the war was Western European, as well as the fact that the same Germany that most of Western Europe simply 'couldn't bring themselves to fight against' now also opposes the use of DPICM?  Not to mention anything of the myriad nuanced reasons behind individual nations' reasons for surrender in 1939/40 (hint: none of them surrendered because fighting the invaders 'wouldn't be nice').
Sorry mate, some of your points are useful but this is the closest to trash you've posted for a while.
Imo.
 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2023/jun/27/steve-bell-on-prigozhins-armed-mutiny-against-vladimir-putin-cartoon

Cirillo is a lot like some of the foreigners wound up fighting for the Republican side in the Spanish civil war. She was sort of trying to figure out what to do with her life, and perhaps not doing a great job of it. But I have to give her absolutely 10,000% credit, she took one look at what Putin was trying to do too Ukraine and signed the bleep up. First she was doing some extremely hardcore war reporting from Kharkiv, in fact reading her stuff in the first few months of the war I fully expected to read about her being killed or worse. Then she signed on the dotted with the AFU, and appears to have served honorably since. We should all salute her.

12:30
https://telesco.pe/bolshiepushki/4397
Claim - another Wagnerite units is crossing the border
12:39
https://t.me/dva_majors/18924
Claim - Video Tanks are moving toward Moscow [probably RU MOD]. Tanks in Moscow is a very sensitive topic for RU.
12:40
https://t.me/horevica/12823
Claim Voronezh Oil depot was attacked by KA-52
12:42
https://t.me/elite_rezerve/21856
Claim exchange rate for dollar 1 to 90, Euro 1 to 100 (exchange rate with three digits  is very sensitive topic for RU)
12:46
RU Nats are discussing that both Prig and Putin live in their own realities
12:50
https://t.me/juchkovsky/3705
Claim  that kadirovci indeed started to move toward Rostov. Not very smart move for Kremlin
.https://t.me/natalia_maximus_ZOV/17528
Claim - Rostov support Wagnerites. They help Wagnerites with water nad food
 
I am off for some time

Somewhat ironic that a group called Wagner is trying to pull a operation Valkyrie

A wee something I put together.
This video showcases content from the Combat Mission Red Thunder Battlepack 1 released by Battlefront.com.
It's a brief overview of each scenario, what it's about and the main intent; it also covers the campaigns (including a brief summary of the main campaign branches).
There are NO spoilers in the video chapters.
https://youtu.be/wyrRX4bP2mM
 

Are we sure we observe the same genocidal, simple war of conquest? If you are so afraid of "undermining" Russia, here is you adress of complains and source of all of the fuss : http://www.en.kremlin.ru/contacts
You are not rightfully criticizning, you get whacked by arguments and are now doing another virtue signalling, while clearly parroting Putin propaganda matrix you saw on some Russian forum. And you don't even get that- that's btw. how propaganda of this type works. Its victims are always people who think of themselves as freethinkers, outside constraints of mainstream media, but who are in fact mentally not equipped to properly build their own worldview that would be anchored in both political realism and some basic ethics. Ukrainians and "American overlords" guilty of Larissa rail accident, USA building bases to "force" others to watch Micky Mouse, poor bombed Nazis in WWII etc. These are the same, unmistakeable symptoms of reducing everything toward symetristic bull*hit.
I am more and more inclined to believe that if world in 1939 would have internet and contrarian keyboard warriors, whole Europe would be foocked royally, divided between Brown and Red totalitarian empires up to this day, doing whatever they want.
Ok, I have enough of this, so where was this mute button...

And really disgusting to see all the pants-wetting over UKR losing some vehicles, incl some nice new NATO ones.  WTF do these people expect?  And one mistake by one group in one field suddenly means all UKR army is incompetent?  Geeeeeeez, some folks out there need to get a grip.  The 'game' is just starting and we've got the much much better team.

Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

There would be blood in the streets?

About attack on Moscow. Brilliant blow, which had not military sence and not such moral punch, but an action to grow more "uncertainity" and to cause more cracks both between influent figures and inside Russian society.
Here is a map of drone crashes and impacts
 
In yellow square is a location of Putin's residence in Novo-Ogariovo. Also many impacts were in elite suburbs of Moscow - Rubliovka, Barvikha, Greenfield were lives "fat of the land". Many of Russians adore Putin, but have "class hate" on oligarchs and very rich inhabitants of theese elite suburbs, where average check in local restaurant can be more than month salary of usual Russian citizen somewhere in province. 
So we have:
1. GUR fueled much more the withstanding of Prigozhyn and MoD. Now Prigizhyn in very brutal manner has spoke out not only about stupid generals, who passed this UAVs, but also against authotity officials , "who are doing nothing and just sit in own comfort armchairs on theit asses, smeared with expensive elite cremes" 
2. Reaction of usual Russians on the strike on elite "oliarch" suburbs was mostly malevoilent. This reaction was so mass, that Solovyov was forced to scold own compatriots for such position
 
 
Average-class elite cottage in Rubliovka, hit by drone
 
3. Most of Russian (so-called) liberals, follwers of Navalnyi, completely showed own imperial inside covered with exclaims "why us?". Who had illusions, but they obviously agaist Putin, but they are the same chauvinists and imperialists. 
From other probable targets: 
Reportedly the distillery was hit in Ostachevo, suburb of Moscow
Russian ballerine Volochkova, posted a storys where told she heard explosions nearby her home, where military unit is located. OSINT community has found this place near Nikolo-Uriupino town - this is m/u 11105-2 - the base and stores of one of battalions of 1st engineer-sapper brigade (deployed in Murom city) 
 
And about "attack on innocent civilans". These "innocent civilians" voted for Putin and all pro-Kremlin parties or where just indeifferent ("we are out of policy"). But indifference of millions born dictature of one. But all they - "vatniks and enough number of "indiffernet liberals", all they wanted a "small victorious war" to feel own imperial "greateness". They wanted "to repeat" and reach Berlin and Atlantic as they have seen this in stupid TV-animations . So, time to pay bills. This is even not allied carpet bombing of German cities, settled by "innocent Germans" in WWII. This is just an opportunity to feel the snickering Moscow, what feel Ukranians in own cities, when they hear almost each night explosions in the sky or on the land. 

yeah no.  Actually, making a different point.  The psychological effect on Moscow is reflected in your reaction.  Ergo for Ukraine - mission accomplished.
This wasn't a terror bombing.  The residential buildings weren't "attacked" rather the drones collided with them. The explosives didn't detonate.  Whatever the target was, it wasn't civilians.  So unless you are saying Ukraine has no legitimate reason to target locations in Moscow, I don't get your point other than.  "Oh my god the Ukrainians did... whatever ... " the freakout is now.