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Petrus58

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  1. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Zeleban is not a Russian troll. I have been following his posts for over a year and he seems like a really honest guy who just says what he thinks. I do not agree with a few things he said in the last few pages but in the grand scheme of things lets not forget he is actually living in Ukraine right now.
    He sees this war in a way us who just follow it on the Internet cannot, so lets give him a break for passionately voicing his opinions even if we do not agree with some of those opinions.
  2. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I recently presented a completely realistic scenario for Ukraine’s return to Russia’s orbit. Putin understands Ukraine much better than Western politicians and knows its weak points very well
    This is their 2022 statement. Today it's the other way around. Russia is demonstrating effectiveness at least at the strategic and operational-ta
     
    ctical level. They have clearly learned how to effectively use air support and are now outmaneuvering the Ukrainian generals. And yes, the West is really afraid of Russia (and after the defeat of Ukraine, this fear will intensify many times over) . At least Ukrainians have not laughed at “stupid Russians” for a long time.
     
    The same as in the answer I mentioned above about the “Russian orbit”
    This is happening literally before our eyes. Ukraine is becoming more and more toxic, even in the eyes of our closest neighbors such as Poland and Slovakia. I think there is no need to remind you about the blockade of the borders with Ukraine by these countries. This is also evidenced by the choice of the citizens of Slovakia of a clearly pro-Russian president
    Russia did not demonstrate weaknesses in NATO, it demonstrated the lack of a clear NATO strategy in response to the growing threat from the east. And of course, the lack of unity among NATO member countries. Hungary, Slovakia, Türkiye
    Well, let's not forget about the upcoming US elections and the most obvious presidential candidates in these elections. A significant portion of the US population also demonstrates that they do not believe in NATO
    This problem is closely related to my previous answer
    Russia is actively doing this right now, trading Ukrainian grain, as well as dismantling equipment from seized Ukrainian enterprises
    A very controversial statement. Haven't we discussed before that we are witnessing a crisis in the world order? If Ukraine is captured, there will be a change in the world order - a significant strengthening of the role of Russia in Europe and a weakening of the role of the United States in Europe
    This campaign has not failed, it is still in progress.
    A very controversial statement, given the growth in Russian energy exports. What difference does it make if Russia sells these energy resources directly to Western countries or through third countries? Still, the profit goes into the pockets of the Kremlin
    As we see, this is not the case. Energy resources remain a very effective weapon for the Kremlin. Through countries such as Hungary and Türkiye, Russia has the opportunity to influence EU policy
    This is wrong. After the end of the war, we will see a huge demand for simple and effective means of war, such as adjustable aerial bombs, Lancet UAVs, Orlan UAVs, Ka-52 helicopters, etc. Russian weapons are demonstrating their effectiveness right now on the battlefield
     
    This is hardly an addiction, rather a partnership. And by the way, quite effective partnerships, unlike partnerships between Ukraine and the West. We see an increase in Russian arms supplies to Iran. Su-35 aircraft, Ka-52 helicopters are from recent deliveries
    Instead of piles of old rubbish, Putin receives one of the most numerous and effective armies of our time. Now we are honing new methods and tactics for using the Russian armed forces on the battlefield. Who today still believes that armadas of old tanks are a necessary asset in a modern war, where armadas of drones dominate the battlefield?
    Nothing like this. I was especially surprised by the statement about “national pride.” Russia's national pride today is at its highest level in recent memory. Well, as we see the latest news, Putin has more than doubled spending on the army compared to 2021. This clearly does not indicate a decline in the economy.
    While the Ukrainian economy is on the verge of collapse. In the latest news, civil servants' salaries have been reduced by almost 40%
  3. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm not sure why you'd say "Russia is done".
    Russia is winning in all metrics they care about - they wanted a piece of Ukraine and they got it, they will get to keep it forever and try again in a few years after West pushes Ukraine to give up this round. They got to send thousands of prisoners, poor men from undeveloped regions and minorities to their deaths. They wanted to show NATO in particular and Western world order in general as a shams and the whole West as weak and corrupt, and they succeeded. They strengthened their relationships with similar regimes like China and Iran as well. Common Russians even get to bully Ukrainian refugees when they visit West for vacations.
    The only price they had to pay for that was some sanctions that do nothing, and that's about it.
  4. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As someone who grew up in east London I had good neighbours and school friends whose families came from Turkey, Greece, Ireland, New Zealand, Guyana, Iran, Iraq, Malawi, The Dominican Republic, Trinidad, Albania, Kosovo, Russia, Bangladesh, Ukraine, Nigeria, India, Pakistan, Israel, Ethiopia, Germany, Sri Lanka, China and Laos (and that’s the ones I can remember of the top of my head).  Between them they represented various different Christianities, Sikhism, Islam, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, Hinduism and Buddhism.  We all celebrate Xmas (or not) however we bloody want and oh dear god I don’t have the strength to do this again…
    I feel like there’s a lot of pent up fear, anger and frustration being vented on the board recently.  I guess that’s understandable from certain members at least but wow, are there some ridiculous things being said.
    Slava Ukraini.
  5. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.
    ...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):
    “Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”
    "We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”
    Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.
    Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.
    You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.
    In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”
     
  6. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course it doesn't, and yes it will be painful for them. But not terminal and not in a way that precludes significant and destabilizing future Russian menacing of the west. There are plenty of painful economic changes we in the west endure yet somehow we often come out of it stronger. Let's not get sucked into "Russia sucks" beliefs about this. We hooted and scoffed about the ruble collapsing, crippling sanctions, unmaintained planes falling from the sky, freezing of finances and corporate pullouts. And here they are, adapting as hardy humans do.
    Sure, but they will have the means--they will feel the brain drain and economic difficulties sure, but Russia is populous, resource-rich and has a heavier war industry than most other countries, and has a heavyweight financial sponsor to its east. Say what you will about demographic decline and economic projections; all I said is still true. We all know how anxious the current Ru military leadership is to squander opportunities, but for a country like this on paper, having been evacuated of their old tanks and legacy military equipment is practically an invitation to rebuild according to the new ways of war. The impact of losing 3000 tanks becomes almost a blessing than a curse. Very possible we see some shuffling of leadership to enable such rebuilding in the next 10 years, depending on how things go politically.
    I don't think history will remember the catastrophic losses and the dead peasants so much as It will remember that Putin looked on a map and said, "That's mine now." And so it was. It's a symbolic victory and a (im)moral victory of strategic significance. Despite the answers to your questions about whatever practical advantages Russia has won and at which cost, I believe the optics of history will above all capture the image of Russia taking what it wants. A strategic corridor no less.
    That would be a Total Victory, not just a strategic one. As when Hitler conquered France.
    I do not have your experience, education or analytical skill. I love reading your posts and thank you for them. This post is a manifestation of my deep wariness of those that keep increasing the tint of their rosy glasses (not saying you are). Hubris comes before the fall and our societies have become fat with it. I can only trust that our institutions are still staffed by talented and committed individuals like yourself, and are refreshing themselves adequately as times change and entropy takes its toll.
    I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, I'd say I'm advocating for sober and serious preparation.
  7. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The point is that the king still sits on gold even if the peasents starve.
    We are also far from that - so what exactly is this "punishment" of economic "isolation" /read this as a trade reduction in russias case, Russia still very happily trades with the rest of the world and vice versa, some companies pulled out, others made great profit there.
    All one can argue is that this economic reduction reduces Russias potential to build as many weapons as they could but a) they are maintaining the war good enough, b) judging by North Korea (which is completely isolated vs just the west doing - less trading - not nothing), which still hangs on after half a century and remains a threat to SK and the world.
    So how much does this "economic pain" really deter Putin, or other autocrats ? In my view, not at all. 
  8. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Ales Dvorak in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  9. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I get that you might be having a bad day but there is so much unwarranted angst in this post: absolutely nobody in “The West” argues that children should have the right to choose their gender.  No-one is emptying our churches (though there are many fewer people heading in) and less than nobody is “emptying churches so they can be turned into mosques”.
    Reconsider the merits of whatever media source has told you these things.  You rightly identify that we are in a collision of systems but make no mistake: it is the enemies of our Western system who promote misinformation such as what you posted above in order to foster the very division you warn against.   Seeing through that, being less angry about things that aren’t happening and therefore being a part of a secure Western system is the best way to maintain focus and win. 
  10. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Unfortunately, in the current conditions it is so easy to create a strong defensive line just with mines, trenches, drone operators, guns & Lancets behind and just a handful of people in the first line that even heavy losses in personnel do not really undermine the ability to defend in place. 
    People have been wondering why Russians are so stupid to waste infantry, tanks and IFVs just to take a slag heap at Avdieyevka. I am not sure if it is just stupidity or the Russian lessons learned from the Zaporozhe campaign. My hypothesis is that they concluded that in the current defensive paradigm: 1) any attack will require heavy losses and will be slow to progress; this has to be accepted; AND 2) on the contrary, defence can be set up using mostly low quality personnel in low to moderate numbers, provided that artillery & Lancet support can be ensured; THEREFORE 3) most of the manpower and part of the equipment (tanks, IFVs) is only necessary if one wants to attack, and otherwise will be superfluous; THEREFORE 4) it is better to use the soldiers and equipment up in attacks which will yield modest territorial gains, rather than forego any territorial gains, have the mobiks rot in the trenches and possibly go bolshevik out of boredom. This hypothetical line of reasoning, while very inhumane, is not without internal logic.
    Moreover, the slag heap near Avdieyvka is not such a bad terrain objective, if RUS command concluded that the days of big advances are over, and the desirable endgame for the Russians is just to keep status quo in Zaporozhe and Donbas. Eliminating UKR salient from which Donieck can be conveniently bombarded is as good an objective as one can reasonably find in this situation.
  11. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Ithikial_AU in Annual look at the year to come - 2023   
    Yes.  
    Please be aware that the Battle Packs are led and being made by volunteers who have day jobs/mortgages/bills/significant others etc. I can't speak for the others, so maybe they have less demanding jobs, are retired or have secretly won the lottery and are living an Armchair General's paradise I'm just not sure.  Just please be aware we aren't employed by Battlefront working full time on content creation.
    The first half of this year virtually nothing progressed because of my real life work skyrocketed, dominating my waking hours. If you can pull a 10-12 hr work day five days a week and then back that up with an additional few hours a night in the editor let me know.   Progress jumped ahead as I took much needed extra time off work in August. Two of three planned campaigns are now in the testing phase. My own testing for my vision of the Carentan campaign also didn't play out as expected. It just wasn't fun. I had to rejig that. It all just takes time.
    Maybe I'll be able to post a bone or two soon.
    I keep @BFCElvis in the loop on developments as they occur.
    My personal secretary trying to keep my life balanced and on schedule, seen here looking up at my monitor trying to work out the differences between a StuG III (mid) and StuG III (late).

  12. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Please, guys, it's bad enough this thread has been dallying with conspiracy theories about how Russia invaded Ukraine because of Canada or something. I don't think it illuminates much about what's happening in Ukraine right now to theorize about how a conflict happening thousands of kilometers away - one which has been happening for decades longer than either Russia or Ukraine existed in their current incarnations - is actually all masterminded by Putin in order to... elect Trump?! I love political thrillers and spy stories too, but sometimes stuff around the world just happens, it doesn't all need to be connected to a sinister grand plan. For sure everything that happens everywhere in the world is connected in some way or another because that's the nature of human civilization, but that's a less interesting insight than I hope for given the expertise of people on this thread.
  13. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In fact, the Iron Duke's other remark at Waterloo may be motto for the rest of the Ukrainian war:
    "Hard pounding this, gentlemen. Let's see who pounds the longest"
  14. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I’m not going to get too involved in the US political discussion but I will say it’s hard for me not to laugh every time I hear American people refer to “the far left” of the American political establishment.  I’m sorry but by the standards I’m familiar with American politics really doesn’t have a left wing to speak of.  From an external point of view American politics starts about as far to the right as exists in any western country and finishes with “the squad” somewhere around what would be considered the centre or maybe centre-left anywhere in Europe.
    Are attempts to appeal to the US “centre” maybe failing because the political “centre” has in fact drifted so far to the right?
  15. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I just finished listening to a long interview with Andrei Kozyrev, Russia’s first foreign minister from 1990-1996. He was pretty interesting to listen to. Two things that he said are interesting to mention:
    He actually ordered his staff to search the archives from the previous years looking for any evidence for an agreement or treaty or even a discussion about an agreement or treaty with NATO to prevent or restrict its expansion.

    No surprise to anyone here, there were none. At the time it was just not seen as a pressing issue to discuss. The story that one existed is made up out of whole cloth. But we knew that.

    I know that's boring I just thought it was interesting hearing from an insider.
      He said the West is needlessly tying itself in knots over escalation. Not pushing hard and committing to promises risks escalation. Giving Ukraine what it needs does not. I'm not sure how perfect his analysis of that is but I have to respect his point at least some what.

    He said we should not back Ukraine for as long as it takes to win but instead back them so they win as soon as possible! It was a super line. His point is that Putin wants the war to drag on and for Western support to waver. Instead we should get more weapons systems in their hands faster and push harder to give the Ukrainians everything they want and need to get this job done as quick as possible. You can listen to the interview here:
    https://www.aei.org/podcast/the-insiders-perspective-with-minister-andrei-kozyrev/
  16. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't really follow this logic. What makes you think that having a weapon that theoretically could crack a big dam is going to stop an authoritarian government from its expansionist goals? The CCP has proven time and time again that they are willing to suffer huge economic hits and lose tens of millions of lives in pursuit of their political objectives. And the people of China have spent almost a century living under this regime, developing a fatalist worldview that sounds similar to how Russia watchers on this thread describe the people of Russia.
    There is no critical mass of disgruntled citizens sitting on a knife edge, just waiting for a single catastrophic event to have them storm Zhongnanhai and boot out their great leader. Protests in the country are small and localized and rapidly squashed. News of them - or any kind of activity that undermines the party line - is suppressed. Dissent is largely kept behind closed doors, expressed only in close social circles. The focus for most people is staying under the radar, trying to get rich (but not so rich it will attract attention) and - for some - to get their family out. Anyone who legitimately cares about the broader success of the country and not just their own personal advancement has necessarily bought into the current political structures and thus will not challenge them in any significant way.
    My current feeling is that China definitely under Xi, and probably under the CCP more broadly, is going to push Taiwan till the very end. I do not see any face-saving escape hatch at this point. Even if they cannot win the war, if they start it, they will keep fighting it, just as Russia appears to be doing in Ukraine. But for Taiwan the pre-war status quo is worse, because nobody formally recognizes it as the independent country it clearly already is, so it's already excluded from being an active player in global affairs, thanks to the overwhelming economic pressure China is able to apply to the rest of the world. Is there any wunderwaffe Taiwan could point across the Strait that would nullify that pressure? I don't think so.
    In standing up to China, I think the pen will be mightier than the sword. But, of course, the CCP knows that, which is why they have invested so much into controlling the public discourse and exchange of ideas - not just in the country they govern but increasingly around the rest of the world too.
  17. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I see that Shapps has now backed out of both of these ideas on the quiet. 
    It's Conservative Party annual conference time in the UK, so this is now looking a lot like "announce loudly, gather the plaudits, slink off quietly" to try and boost his standing within his party.
  18. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have been of this view since mid 2022. This labels me as a pessimist on this forum, although I have very badly wanted the Russians to hit their 'Uncle' point first, and quit, as they did in A'Stan, then Eastern Europe and then the USSR itself.
    Unfortunately, the Arsenal of Democracy doesn't exist any more. There are probably as many or more cheerful Ukrainian Vikings capable and interested in becoming skilled machinists (or CAD draftsmen) than North Americans today, at a 10x population delta.  (And those in N.A. who do try to go into these fields are overwhelmingly Asian immigrants).
    ...The frat boys I went to uni with in the '80s who (unlike me, no I was the 'smart guy', too clever for all that) went to the elite banking jobs on Bay Street/Wall Street, and then on to private equity. Pretty much everyone else in our age group who chose a different profession has either struggled to prosper in a world shaped by these sh*theads, or basically become one of them, or served them. Time has done the rest, most of the folks who could recreate and manage the world we lived in as of Desert Storm 1991 are retired or dead.
    And they shipped all that Making Lotsa Stuff Better Faster Cheaper capacity and knowhow offshore, piecemeal and then in huge chunks, first to Mexico and then to China, the moment e-commerce made it possible to do so (c. 1998-2003, depending on sector), with the active support of pretty much ALL political parties. Took them about 15 years to bleed out the industrial base of the US of A (of which Canada is merely region 5 or 6 on most corporate logistical maps).
    Short of a mortal danger (i.e. invasion!) to North America, that capacity ain't ever coming back, no sense dreaming about it. Why would the finance bros give a rats, still less tolerate all the dot.Gov meddling, if they can't model 15% EIRR, with exit margin compression door-to-door returns of 24% within 2 years of FID? Lame!
    So we must pray that our Ukrainian brothers can maintain their qualitative edge long enough to break that "Russian Will", before waves of cheap-and-cheerful-made-in-China clones of last-year's tech takes 2024 to a Passchendaele level of bloody for both sides.
    I would love someone to convince me I'm wrong about any of the above, cuz I haven't found anyone, here or elsewhere.
    So I'm left praying for Russian weakness, or some hidden reserve of common sense, reasserting itself and ending this thing.
  19. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to NPye in Combat photography: Photos from the front..   
    On the beach... Vierville Draw

    Looking towards the Vierville draw, the troops are held up by 3 wasp nests, which are tough to crack as not many tanks have landed to deal with them...

    A close up of WN 72...

    Troops huddle in craters or anything that offers some cover from the constant mortar fire and the hated MG fire...

    The troops fire at the WN with little effect...

    Some troops are panicked and try to retreat to the cover of the Hedgehogs and destroyed landing craft...

    The situation is the same to the left of the draw and progress is slow... but another wave of troops are soon to land and hopefully they may do better?

    Eventually small groups of Infantry and Rangers attempt to get to the sea wall... if they don't death is almost certain...
    “Two kinds of people are staying on this beach—the dead and those who are going to die.” — Colonel George A. Taylor

    This musters the troops and with hate for the enemy they move off as fast as possible in a sprint to the sea wall...
     
     
  20. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Show me on the map where the Russians touched you."
  21. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to George MC in Tank Tactical Problem Series (German)   
    EDIT
    Thanks to @Monty's Mighty Moustache who picked up a briefing error in TTP No2. This has been amended and the attached zip file below has the updated file.
    This series of three missions is very loosely based on several of the ‘Tank Battle Problems’ detailed in the Nafziger publication ‘the German Tank Platoon in WWII: Its Training and Employment in battle’.
    Whilst the series of ‘problems’ outlined in the book appear to be pre/early war I have updated the fundamental concepts to a later period in the war i.e. 1944.
    The key intent of these tank tactical problems is to give the player new to using German armour an opportunity to use them in a more doctrinally ‘correct’ manner within the limitations of the Combat Mission game engine.
    This series complements the German halftrack (SPW)/panzergrenadier training lessons in the CMRT Battlepack 1 where the main focus is on using SPW in Combat Mission.
    For the tactical problem series the German player uses Panzer IVs. This tank was used in significant numbers during the war and though starting to become outclassed by 1944 by the Soviet T-34/85 was still a significant part of the tank strength of most panzer divisions. Though Panthers were slowly starting to form the main panzer strength in the panzer regiments. The player cannot rely on superior armour/armament to bully through this series as the Panzer IV’s armour is comparatively speaking, inadequate. 
    All the missions are best played as German Vs Soviet AI. 
    There are NO German AI plan. 
    Each tactical problem has a ‘Tactical Top Tips’ at the end of each briefing (under ‘notes’) which may help the player new to using tanks in Combat Mission get the most out of them.

    Plan is when done to convert them to Soviet versions so players can contrast.

    If you get a chance to give em a whirl I'd appreciate any and all feedback thank you.



    You download  https://www.thefewgoodmen.com/tsd3/cm-red-thunder/cm-red-thunder-add-ons-scenarios/cmrt-german-tank-tactical-problems/
     
     
  22. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to MikeyD in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The threatened government shutdown is a hostage situation where the hostage takers don't have a clue what their backmail demands actually are. Its a performative farce. If the House is going to put on an annual pantomime they should be obliged to dress up as Punch.
  23. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Bil Hardenberger in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My day job is developing wargames for the USMC, and I wanted to address the bolded part above. Computer simulations are great, but they do not answer all the objectives of professional wargames, in fact many time the result is not even that important, many times the discussion and insights learned from going through the process are all that we are after. Computer sims also have a way of stifling this conversation, trust me when you have 50 professional Marine, Army, and/or Navy officers in a room, a table top game is the best tool for the job if you want to invite conversation and in-depth topic discussions.
    There is also a dopamine hit players get from the tactile nature of a map and counter wargame and rolling dice that you rarely get from a computer simulation. That also has a value to get player buy-in, interaction, and enjoyment.  
    Simulation based professional wargames are great when the results are important, testing a new tactical organization, weapon system integration, etc., but they usually turn into a series of in-depth planning sessions with a simulated vignettes occuring for flavor. There is also a stovepipe mentality with these types of games with different player cells huddled around their machines that is absent in table top games.
    I've seen it all and there is value for all types of wargames in the professional setting and which is used depends on the objectives and research questions we are trying to answer. Table top games in professional wargames will not be going away anytime soon.
    Bil
  24. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Doc844 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ooh before I forget, couple of things, I didn't want to comment on these earlier because I was way behind the thread.
    Bayonets.  Bayonet drill is still very much taught in the British military, well in all infantry units it is.  Firstly its a good beasting, erm sorry not allowed to use that term anymore.  It's a good exhaustion exercise.  It is absolutely knackering but you are expected to keep your tempo and aggression levels up all the way through it.  It is also a good way to teach controlled aggression, to keep awareness even while your knackered and slavering like a wild dog.  Lastly its bloody good fun.
    In general, I would rather have than have not, as someone previously stated, bayonets don't run out of ammo.  Also what may not be quite well known is that the British bayonet can also be used as wire cutters.  How cool is that, you can either kill someone with it or cut fences. ✂️ 
  25. Like
    Petrus58 reacted to Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

    An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

    He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

    I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

    Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

    Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

    Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

    Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

    A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

    On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

    One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

    Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
    https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

     
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