dan/california

If there's a genuine value in Russia expending assets to prove that, I suspect that's indicative of much bigger problems.

Putin (and russians as a whole) thinks no such thing. He is perfectly aware of what NATO is. And he is perfectly aware that it's impossible to drag NATO into aggressive wars of any kind because of all the safeguards.
Furthermore russians are fully aware that no NATO country is interested in expansion because civilized world is all about trying to outrun other countries in money and money loves peace.
This all has to do with the fascist ideology of russians as a whole. Their ideology is that Russia is "a third Rome" (which is highly delusional in itself for oh so many reason), that their empire should spread to former USSR borders in the middle of Germany once again.
Likewise "Warsaw pact" was never any pact - USSR just couldn't say "this all belongs to us now" so soon after 1945 because they would look like an occupier, not unlike Nazi Germany, to the rest of the world and that's a bad idea in the aftermath of WW2. But make no mistake - all those countries were fully occupied.
So naturally NATO prevents the restoration of "former glory" (aka occupying half of Europe) and that's the only reason Russia opposes NATO. And that's why they wage wars since as early 1992, occupying parts of countries to use NATO safeguard about "countries with ongoing wars not able to join" against those countries.
And that's why they can't invade Baltic countries because those got protection.
With Ukraine it's an even more hardcore story, totally tied into faux russian greatness mythology, that was already discussed.
 

https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
Apparently Xi and Putin were thinking about a one two punch to put the West out of business.  The minute the Ukrainians run out of Russian vehicles to kill we need to start pumping them into Taiwan at at least same rate. Actually we need to help the Taiwanese set up their own production lines. Twenty thousand Javelins, and ten thousand stingers and the island is just not getting conqured . A bunch of the bigger vehicle mounted stuff too obviously.

On a lighter note... Can we have tankriders in CMBS? Oh wait! 😀
 

It is definitely going that way, sad to say.
But I'm also hoping that there are enough ethnic Russians fighting for the UA, so that the wannabe ethnic cleansers (which sadly may include some folks on here 😒) don't get to have their day, a la Croatia's savage retaliatory expulsion of Serbs (and Bosniaks) from the.... wait for it... Krajina region.
There is no future for Ukraine as an 'ethnic state' along the lines of the Baltics. Too many groups have crisscrossed, colonised and intermarried in that territory for too long. Federalism and (hopefully) stronger links to Central Europe, plus better government at home, must be the future; the alternative is disintegration and impoverishment, except perhaps in the Galicia zone and Odessa (?)
Thoughts, anyone else?

And soon followed by the quiet rumble of an approaching predatory John Deere...
*cue Jaws music*
 
 
 

If this is going according to plan? I wounder what that plan looked like? The destruction of Russias economy? The destuction of the Russian army elite divisions? Exactly what is going on as planed?

I will leave it to Steve and BFCElvis to determine what is, or is not, acceptable on their own forum. 
I can only judge Col (or is it LCol?) Macgregor on what he presented, which was "different" to say the least.  His assessment that "Russia has already won" is definitely contrary to most mainstream military assessment, or media for that matter.  However, Col M argues that Ukrainians are "cut off" and "in cauldrons", near a total collapse tipping point.  Further he argues that the Ukrainians are only capable of "pin pricks" against the Russian offensive.   His noted reason for the slow Russian advance is based on strict ROEs from Putin to "avoid/limit damaging Ukraine" as much as possible, so humanitarian bascially .
So, ok, that is one point of view.  I am left wondering where Col M is getting his information to build this picture because it clearly does not match what we have been seeing - the "so what?" here is that clearly either he is very wrong or mainstream analysis/assessment is very wrong, not a lot of middle ground here.  Thoughts:
- We have a very bad habit of "lack of accountability" for what gets said on the internet.  Once the smoke clears on all this I can only hope that credibility of sources are held to account (faint hope).  We have politicians who have said things, pundits who have said things and that needs to be remembered and assessed after this is over.  If Col M is correct, or even just mostly correct, then we clearly missed some big signs or were totally taken astray, and by "we" I mean just about every mainstream venue.
-  Based on what we have seen on social media, a steady stream of open source information, Col M's thesis appears the total opposite to observation.  If this is all "fake news", then it merits as one of the largest and most thorough disinformation campaigns in human history.  If the Ukrainians, who are according to Col M on their last legs, have managed to create enough "fakes" to show over 1500 lost Russian vehicles, and Russian damage to civilian centers rivalling the invasion of Poland, this is an incredible feat of information warfare and I am talking one that dwarfs Chinese capability.  There is "fake news" and then there is mountains of "fake news".
- If Col Ms assessment of Russians adhering to strict ROEs to the point that they have delayed operational advances to the amount we have seen, then the Russian military is likely be best disciplined military force in human history.  They have literally violated almost every doctrinal principle of warfare in order to meet the demands of the political level.  For a professional military, in the middle of a major invasion, to delay offensive action - particularly against an opponent on their last legs - is one of the most breathtaking displays of military discipline I have ever heard of.  The military risks associated with doing this are extreme, not the least of which is allowing time and space for a western-backed resistance to arm and organize.  Many Russian soldiers will die because of this "restraint".  Problem here is that the Russian military does not appear well disciplined; egregious attacks on civilians, videos of looting, abandoned vehicles, radio intercepts and "lost" PWs point the exact opposite way - unless of course this is also "fake news", and we are back to "how the hell did the Ukrainians pull that off?!".
So these are just a few of Col Ms points that I walked away with and I gotta say that if he is correct well we know that this has been a war changing use of information warfare on the part of the Ukrainians, and the Russian military is nearing Spartan levels of control and discipline.  However, I have to quote Carl Sagan here "the weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness" and one retired Col's "say so" is not enough to go on.
Finally as to "why Ukraine matters?"  Well I am not going to get drawn into a country-specific political debate; however, the simple reasons are 1) it is inhumane; however that is a little to "hippy dippy" for some, 2) there is no more "over there" in a globalized world and 3) Russia has fundamentally challenged the global system that has made all of us in the west, rich, powerful, entitled and frankly "dumb and lazy". 
Let's explore that last one.
The global system that our grandparents/great-grandparents fought and died for and despite all its inequities -there are many- it resulted in massive and persistent stability (crazy but true) and economic, population and technological growth orders of magnitude higher and faster than any point in human history.  This did not happen because a god(s) in heaven ordained it, or weird racial theories that still float out there, it happened because we built it and defended it.  Russia's actions in Ukraine are a threat to security because they challenge that system, they got out of line and they are (or at least were) a global power.  Such actions do nothing for all that stability I mentioned, in fact they act as a global disruptor, and that is definitely a threat to us all.  If anyone is too ignorant or thinks this is some sort of political leverage issue, they frankly deserve what happens next if we let this slide. And what happens next is a new global order being written by someone else while we most likely stand around and blame each other for it.
 
 

General Roman Gavrilov, deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia Unit, has been arrested - reasons for his imprisonment unclear.

Head of the Russian Central Bank. Elvira Nabiullina has resigned after arguing with Putin over the devastation on Russian economy caused by sanctions.

Early evidence that Putin's 'Special Operation' failure is now transmuting into a domestic crisis?
 

This article (via an Indian think-tank) is quite didactic
https://www.vifindia.org/article/2020/december/04/why-drones-turned-the-tide-for-azerbaijan-an-analysis
From the piece
Another point very conspicuous to note is the near absence of anti-drone weapons in the arsenal of the Armenian air defence forces. Following points are made as regards anti-drone arsenal:-
Drones throw two challenges to conventional air defences:- Their RCS is generally too small to get detected by conventional air defence radars be it early warning, fire control or missile guidance radars. Being extremely low-cost, these demand low cost kill means. There is no point of killing a few hundred dollars drone with a million dollar missile. This ratio becomes further skewed if the opponent is a swarm drone, off which the best of SAMs worth millions can take out only a few. RCS=Radar Cross Section
The thinking of countries like India, Indonesia, Vietnam is interesting to follow, as it offers the point of view of those that need to "buy smart". 
@LukeFF is the flight sim expert, but a ground attack Sukhoi with its cannon could be quite effective to take down bigger drones like the TB2.

Yes, Kamil is a fantastic strategist and historian, but is less sound on pure military stuff, so YMMV....
His tweet threads have become popular and so many get bombed midway through by the usual Twits.
So for those interested, here are links to the 'unrolled' versions (although these don't have most of the images he puts in the tweetstorms).
Not in order of posting:
Russian demographics 1: geography
https://kamilkazani2.substack.com/p/how-did-russia-get-so-big?s=w
 
Russian demographics 2: the southern 'ganglands'
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493602653586264076.html
 
The Russian economy 1
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501360272442896388.html
 
The Russian economy 2
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499855858456567809.html
 
The rise of Putin
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496711906412933121.html
 
Dormant Russian institutions
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499048492358111235.html
 
Russia's State Security State
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496506490202513413.html
 
Putin's elite
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495790874235744258.html
 
Kadryov's Chechnya: Putin's warlord vassal
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612331953577991.html
 
Political institutions of the Mongol Golden Horde 
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492164056962195457.html
 
Assabiyahs: Russia's autocracies over time
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492549093771694082.html
 
Why doesn't the Russian Army rule Russia any more?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493968165717561346.html
 
The decay of the Russian Army
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502673952572854278.html
 
Russia didn't launch a war, but a 'special operation'
 
 
Crisis and Jubilees: barons vs courtiers
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503430216554795014.html
 
No, Ukraine isn't just a separatist Russian province...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495469553136066572.html
 
Geography shapes Ukraine's history
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495200579919958021.html
 
Ethnopolitics in Ukraine (and Russia)
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1494334415446577153.html
 
A short background on Russian expansionism
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492960693737463813.html
 
So who are the 'Nazis' anyway?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497306746330697738.html
 
"Z" Russia has gone full fascist
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500495309595725831.html
 
Should we be 'giving Putin a way out?'
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503053699798769666.html
 
Napoleon's 1812 error: deescalation
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503768312236421120.html
 
How Putin 'derussified' East Ukraine
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504103672019513345.html
 

A great example of how lots of firefights actually work. There’s a ton of gunfire, you never actually see the enemy (I don’t think you can see any Russians in the video?), and every now and then someone gets hit by a random bullet. 

Secret Russian General Staff planning session. Although it might be giving them too much credit.

Secret Russian General Staff planning session. Although it might be giving them too much credit.

Secret Russian General Staff planning session. Although it might be giving them too much credit.

Secret Russian General Staff planning session. Although it might be giving them too much credit.

Secret Russian General Staff planning session. Although it might be giving them too much credit.

Think again.

They have fought like Spartans but smarter. Just saw a credible report that the French Foreign Ministry thinks the Russians are not negotiating seriously. I wonder if Putin's on generals know that, I wonder if the colonels do. Because the upper midlevel command on the ground must have pretty good idea how badly they NEED to be negotiating. The four dead generals and twenty odd other senior officers being exhibit A. the Ukrainians need to start putting it out there that the first couple of senior officers to surrender their whole units get an apartment in Brazil, a Ukrainian passport, and some cash.

More UA artillery turkey shoots against densely packed RA laagers (2 parts).
I can't get the left hand map to show showing all the strung out Russian column/LOCs, but comparing it with the stonk video (and so many others like it in prior days), it gives one a sense of how completely and utterly roadbound the Russian army remains.
In 1983 -- yup, 39 years ago -- I remember asking an Afghan mujahideen what he thought of the Russian soldiers and he shrugged and said:  we have no idea, they never get out of their vehicles.
Plus ca change.
Also, one would think that in a properly functioning logistical effort, most of those trucks would be rolling back and forth, busy as bees, ferrying shells and whatnot for the 'big push'.  Not just sitting there waiting to be pulverized.

They have fought like Spartans but smarter. Just saw a credible report that the French Foreign Ministry thinks the Russians are not negotiating seriously. I wonder if Putin's on generals know that, I wonder if the colonels do. Because the upper midlevel command on the ground must have pretty good idea how badly they NEED to be negotiating. The four dead generals and twenty odd other senior officers being exhibit A. the Ukrainians need to start putting it out there that the first couple of senior officers to surrender their whole units get an apartment in Brazil, a Ukrainian passport, and some cash.

Can you imagine the pressure Zelensky is under. He is 96% percent sure he is winning, but he can't be sure how many days/weeks it will take to actually win. Everyone of those days probably cost a thousand civilian lives with 100 of them children, every day is at least another 100,000 refugees, and, and...  And he soldiers on acting like a sane person. If He has made bad call since the Russian tanks rolled I don't know what it was. Just incredible!

okay so this whole thing about us only seeing one side of the battle.. who's fault is that?  Folks here are avidly combing ANYTHING they can get.  There was a post a while back where the Russians were showing off a couple items they'd captured.  There has been some analysis of the UKR retreat from around Kherson.  The problem is there is a huge dearth of decent info/video from the Russian side.  We get our best info on Russian successes from Haiduk and radio intercepts of freaking out Russians. Oh wait yeah that doesn't reflect successes.  Nor does the 4 count em 4 dead Major Generals.
Want to guess why that might be the case?  It is 20 days now since the Russian Blitzkrieg launched an attack from the Belarus border towards Kiev which is 60 freakin miles away and they still aren't there.  Putin just keeps saying they are still on plan.  Which f'n plan is that?  last I'd heard the plan was to be in Kiev in 3 days.
Brovary is only 13 miles away so if the Russian plan is just to build up an arty park, they are already in range.
Let's stop pretending like the fog of war is hiding the possible truth that the war is going Russia's way even if slowly.  I am not sure Ukraine has enough tractors to haul away the whole Russian army, but they are making a pretty heroic effort.

Unreal, but given what we’ve learned about the over centralized nature of the Russian military, lack of secure communications, GPS, NVG and other equipment the West takes for granted, the Russians may be bunching up to maintain command and control…they have no choice and can’t adapt quickly.

This has to be sign of near complete failure of the Russian force structure doesn't it? Over, and over we keep asking how they can be that incompetent? Gloriously happy this guy is alive and free, can't imagine bigger propaganda win for the Ukrainians, and that is saying something.