Sarjen

As Steve said early on UKR only needs to "keep kill Russians".   And Putin looks like he's gonna keep sending worse and worse troops in.
Funny all this LOTR stuff.  I am on my 3rd re-read right now this time via audiobook, I do it every 10 years.  Currently in 3rd book w attack on Minas Tirith coming up.  I think the orcs et al have a better army than RU.  RU can't even seem to get Osgiliath (Mariupol).  They both lost badly at Helm's Deep (Kyiv).

Ahah, thanks, you make me blush ) I would be a hero, if did this from Chernihiv or Kharkiv, but Kyiv was relatively safe place, despite heavy sounds of artillety and MLRS and sometime missiles booms in the sky 

Wow, hard to believe that was only 40 days ago.  I would caveat that this is a descriptive theory, not a prescriptive one.  Descriptive theories assist in orientation and allow us to better understand "what we are seeing", while prescriptive ones offer "rules for successful execution" and offer some predictive qualities (e.g. Clausewitzian attacking centers of gravity).  I have never really bought off on prescriptive military theory to be honest as it either has to be so broad as to be nearly inapplicable (see Clausewitz), or it is narrow and misses large pieces of the picture.  Descriptive theories provide a better observation reference but are not designed to predict or prescribe, we are left to figure that out on our own.
So 40 days later and what have we seen?  Well obviously both sides have been communicating across multiple mediums and in many ways.  Violence is the most obvious but we can see there are many forms of communication beyond violence in this war, narratives for example.  Even the atrocities committed by the Russian forces is a form of communication, one that I think the world has heard and understood very clearly; this will not be a clean war, because clean wars do not exist.  I think we forgot that fighting in far flung parts of the world but this one is hammering it home very clearly.  
What is interesting is the negotiation.  This is more than between the parties engaged in the war.  It is between a party and itself, and the reality it perceives in front of it; we negotiate with the future in war, an extremely uncertain future.  In the last 40 days the level of negotiation by all parties has been fascinating. 
We have watch the Russians have to renegotiate their entire envisioned end-state as the northern operational axis have collapsed.  We have watched the Russian political level negotiate with its own people by building a pretty weak argument resting on a ever increasing lattice work of falsehoods and lies.  Putin had better hope that Stalin was right about the size of the lie because even though the "first casualty of war..." and all that, the reality is that there is constant negotiation between the political and the people (Clausewitz nailed that one) but it is a highly bounded one.  As has been mentioned, culture plays no small part in framing that ongoing negotiation; however, in Russia's case the framework of lies keeps getting larger and larger, it is  matter of time before a counter-narrative starts gaining traction, much like it did during the Soviet-Afghan War.  So while Putin has had to re-negotiate his reality, he now has to try and re-negotiate that reality with an entire nation as more and more Russian soldiers "go missing" or come home in boxes.  Again, descriptive theory but where I come from this is not a particularly strong strategic position, particularly when you might need to mobilize your nation in order to pull off a weak draw by this point.
The Ukrainian negotiations have been no less startling.  I think there was a level of shock in those first four days and I would not be surprised if the Ukrainian government had a much more open position to ending this thing.  Now they have completely re-negotiated their reality and envisioned end-state:
From ISW: "Ukraine will not resume negotiations with Russia until Ukrainian and guarantor state negotiators finalize meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian atrocities in Ukraine and Kremlin efforts to falsely blame Ukraine for these atrocities have reduced the willingness of the Ukrainian government and society to reach a peace agreement less than total Russian defeat"
This is not the negotiation position of warring party that is worried about losing that certainty I spoke of initially, in fact it has been reinforced.  Further, the Ukrainian government is not negotiating with its people from a position of weakness, it is one of extreme strength.  The Ukrainian people are galvanized more now, than they were back on Feb 28th.  They have sacrificed thousands and now the Russian atrocities are coming to better light they know that they are "all in" for the next decade if need be.  Further, based on what I have seen on social media, this resistance has taken root at a cultural level and I cannot describe how powerful (and dangerous for the Russians) that is.  The fact that killing Russians is being elevated to a near religious calling that will likely be taught to grandchildren is about as bad as it can get for an invader, trust me we found that out the hard way in Afghanistan.  
So what?  Well the communication will continue, now in context of re-negotiated end-states.  Negotiation is continuous and is constantly in contact with the other four elements.  What I am looking for are more signals of what that negotiation looks like.  I will say that it is never simple, it has twists and turns the longer this thing carries on.  Signals of negotiation on all levels, the texture and nature of those negotiations, what influences negotiation?  These are all things I will be tracking.
Finally on sacrifice.  Both sides have sacrificed and will continue to do so, the real question of Will comes down to "how much?"  Here Ukraine clearly has got miles of depth before they will accept "too much", particularly as more civilian massacres turn up; what is the point of "tapping out" when they are going to kill you anyway?  The Russians nearly the opposite position: "how close to the edge are they?"  I do not believe for a second that Russia has signed up for a total war but they really close to an unintended one.  The level of sacrifice to win it could soar to the hundreds of thousands as this rate, is Russia willing to pay that blood price?  The economic damage and diplomatic damage are heading to total but it will take months for them to see that in full, let alone believe it.  But the continued bleeding for a few meters of dirt in Ukraine, all projected across social media and on the internet forever is a growing cost that I am not sure the Russian government can negotiate its way out of.
Finally the West.  Well we also have to come to terms with the future and it is not the one we thought it was going to be.  We continue to communicate through proxy means, and negotiate militarily through proxy, while directly through economic and diplomacy means; however, we still are not "getting it":
https://www.reuters.com/world/un-vote-suspending-russia-human-rights-council-over-ukraine-2022-04-07/
These mechanism matter to us, not Russia or other powers like China that want to re-write the rules.  This is a laughable gesture by a creaking global order that has its head so far up its own...well you get the idea.  I have said it before, this war is terrible and costly, they all are and I don't want to downplay that, but it is the beginning of an era of "power being power" we are entering into, a Season of Mars (not Venus) that has been a long time coming.  That is bigger than this war, it has implications for the next ones.  This elevates this whole thing beyond "a local border disagreement" -as some have posited- and towards a strategic "black swan" or shock.  The implications span from the tactical through to the geopolitical, that kind of thing is rare.

Some facts:
UK left the EU not NATO. EU has 27 members. NATO has 30 members. The EU has no say on what weapons member states' supply Ukraine.  
  Last fact:
     5. Increased bureaucracy for UK, that has created "friction" with moving goods around EU, is a direct consequence of Brexit agreement with EU. Friction would not exist without occurrence of Brexit.

Denying present and past Russian (beginning to have dificulties with even typing that word) war crimes (mass rape is a trade mark for the Russian army, always have been, even in Eastern Prussia 1914 and Afghanistan), a picture of NKVD thugs in your profile (those bastards practically invented war crimes), 'threatening' with a world war, as your beloved leader likes  to do....Personally I don't understand why you haven't been removed from this forum a long, long time ago.

The russian federation invaded another country, vast numbers of human beings are now dead, maimed, traumatised and/or refugees.  This wouldn't have happened to any of them if the russian federation had not invaded.
Q.E.D.

Initially when confronted by the war crimes Russia was committing in Bucha, I was reminded of stories of the Katyn Forest massacre in WWII, murders of Polish cadets to undermine the future leadership of Poland. But with the increase in attacks on civilian populations that have no military value, I'm reminded more of the Japanese behavior in WWII...an officer enforced brutality to keep troops in line and also encourage ruthlessness on both sides so no one can expect mercy. Maybe the point is to enrage Ukrainians to shoot prisoners on sight and keep Russia's low morale conscripts from surrendering. Or maybe they really are just orcs.
 
I don't have any answers, I guess I'm just trying to understand this pointless sadism that doesn't assist in any military goals. Hollywood can't write bad guys this horrible.

Torture chambers.  Mass rape.  Genocide.  Threatening their neighbors.  More and more I have to admit this old sailor from the cold war is coming around to the fact that maybe we need to call Ivan's bluff and enter this.  I know it means world war and further the threat of Nuclear war.  I lived through that era and spent 5 years on an aircraft carrier preparing for it and am well versed that there are no winners in that.  But at some point the red line has to get crossed and the world has to say no more.  When the Soviet Union fell I had honestly hoped in the modern world we had seen all the evil that humans could preperatrate on one another, but the reports coming out of "occupied" Ukraine the last couple days have brought me to tears and filled me with so much anger I can hardly control myself.  If I was younger Id already be there doing something carrying the wounded and help the civilians (as I was no soldier) but god damn how much more can we see before we raise our fists?
There has to be more we can do.

and to think the Sherman got a bad rap.

I, long ago, while being a peace keeper in Bosnia in '93 where I had front row seats to ethnic cleansing and had my mind and soul seared during the six months of hell myself and other Canadian peace keepers went through, came to a realization - we are fundamentally savages.  Intellectually as a species, we evolved to put a man on the moon and do all sorts of uplifting things.  But the savage in each and everyone of us is still there and we had far too many wars where the savage in each of us is stirred and we do terrible things to to other human beings - The holocaust, Stalin's atrocities to his own people and other ethnic groups, Rwanda, Bosnia, Cambodia, Sudan, Yemen, Ethopia.... etc.  All that in the last hundred years - never mind that this savagery had gone on for thousands of years.
We have no better angels.  We are not enlightened people, evolving out of our savage tribal roots.  We are savages with the trappings of a technological society.  We have guns, missiles and tanks instead of spears, clubs and bows.
Just pointing out what sometimes is getting missed.   What is happening in Ukraine is normal human interaction of the worst type.  If we grew out of our savage origins, humanity would have given up war and atrocities as a form of social interaction long ago.    

looks at pic... starts crying because it has curved roads...

Because it (almost inevitably) appeared elsewhere:

All Info - S.3522 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress
 
 

Just a bright ginger cat inside all this devastation... Apocalypse now.

I'd love for this topic to be about the war and not a coffee house academic discussion about the differences between the political Left and Right. 

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think anyone is trivializing the holocaust.  I think what we are hearing is a relative comparison of the impact on the Ukrainian people regarding German versus Russian fascism.  Now given what we are hearing from some Russian nationalist forces one could say those folks attitudes towards Ukraine mirror the Nazis views and final solution for Jews.  (stated goal to exterminate etc) but I don't believe anyone is trivializing. Unless we are saying that one can never do a comparison to the Nazis when someone is talking about exterminating your own people.
My point was the Russians are clearly exhibiting extreme fascist behavior so can we move on?

An interesting take on China`s relationship with Russia:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2022-04-05/next-sino-russian-split 

I think we can quit with the biggest fascist awards.  Anybody even competing is on the other side.  Doesn't matter if they are the worst or runner up worst.

The commander of the Panzerlehrbrigade 9 and and chief of the Situationroom Ukraine in the MoD Germany on the situation of the war including tank warfare and the future of tanks. In german language but english subtitles with automatic translation are available.
 

The commander of the Panzerlehrbrigade 9 and and chief of the Situationroom Ukraine in the MoD Germany on the situation of the war including tank warfare and the future of tanks. In german language but english subtitles with automatic translation are available.
 

I'd lay strong odds we'll soon see (in 5 years) overwatch drones slaved to the tank targeting & acquisition systems, that will be sent up and constantly be tracking with and above the tank, providing heavily increased range of awareness both to the tank and nearby units. Probably two drones per tank - one up and watching, one down and recharging. 

Einsatzwert (operational value). Gefecht der verbundenen Verbände (combined armes). And the age of the tank is far from over. Very interesting, Sarjen. Thank you. 
This German commander expects another grinding war in the East of the Ukraine, in which numbers will be decisive. Problem is the attacker can chose his Schwerpunkt and achieve local superiority. Nothing new there, but worrying nevertheless. Will Russia be able to regroup on time (preferably before the real mud is coming) and achieve local superiority?

I think it's pretty clear that the massacres of civilians in Ukraine are a tipping point in how people around the world are viewing things.  Last night my wife said two things I could never imagine her saying:
"he needs to die.  someone needs to kill him" (putin)
"why can't we send the american army to kill them?" (meaning kill the russian army
Strange times indeed.

The commander of the Panzerlehrbrigade 9 and and chief of the Situationroom Ukraine in the MoD Germany on the situation of the war including tank warfare and the future of tanks. In german language but english subtitles with automatic translation are available.