Sarjen

Borodianka town NW from Kyiv after yesterday battle. Russian bomb ruined the middle of house.

@Kinophile
I'm ok, thanks. About arty, I'm hearing it work somewhere  in our district. Several days ago that was 2S7 Pion, and now some less powerfull

To be honest I think a lot of people outside of A) the gaming space and B ) the professional (ie military) wargaming space dont really value the contributions of wargaming as much as they ought to I think. From my own field, academic history, I know a lot of historians who just totally dismiss wargaming as a toy or a distraction. I have only ever seen one(!) work of history which tries to incorporate war games as a source for its conclusions, it was fantastic IMO but it never got broad coverage. 
Not all war games are alike. Not all war games touch on the questions you want to ask. But if you mate the right games up to the right questions IMO there is a lot that can be learned from 'trying to do it' yourself. CMCW has changed how I view both American and Soviet doctrine, because at least I've tried it once right? I've seen some of the limitations and some of the strengths of each system and I've seen what both sides need to go right in a battle to win. CMCW has its limitations, as all games do, and is only a simulation of what would have actually happened. Nobody knows what would have happened in a WWIII situation except a lot of people would have died. But in terms of the tactical/battalion scale, CMCW offers an interesting and IMO important look into how the US and Soviets meant to fight. And I'd say the same about the other titles as well. 

I still cant get my mind straight to get a reason why Putin began the war now.
Nordstream2 was built and ready to transfer in short notice natural gas to Germany and the EU. Europe ignored for too long the consequences a possible cessation of all Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine to the EU would cause. Both in social as well as technical terms it would have heavily affected Ukraine. The upkeep for the pipeline in Ukraine is high and could have become financially unviable to operate once Russia would have ceased all gas transit. The pipeline is vital to Ukraine's chemical and heavy industry. And for Russia the geo-economic leverage the Ukraine had over them through its control of a share of Russian gas exports would have been gone. A subversion of the economic and social life of the  brother nation may, in fact, be a main function of the entire logistically and economically, in fact, unnecessary Nordstream2 project.
So why by all means did Putin rush to the war? And with a bad start too? Why did he not wait a bit longer for the economic downfall of Ukraine. Why didn't he use the normal way of subterfuge and propaganda to get a more cheap victory?

A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste

They might've. But they set their own forces to "Elite, Fanatic, +2 leadership, Fit" and they used "Conscript, Poor, -2 Leadership, Unift Uncons" for the Ukrainian opposition.

I don't know about you guys but the past days have played havoc upon my blood pressure. Never forget this, people, never forgive this.

Also do you know that this tower is directly across the street from the Babi Yar massacre memorial? 33,000 Jews were murdered and thrown in to a ravine not too far from there. Maybe 100k more were buried over the course of the war. The memorial there is totally interfaith, a monument to all the victims of the Holocaust. It even has a memorial cross built by Ukrainians in 1943 for their dead. But now because of his hissy fit, the great "denazifier" Putin stains the monument to the tragedy of hate with the blood of new martyrs. 
Absolutely disgusting. ****ing livid. 

Long time lurker who harkens back to the original beyond overlord days.
Thank you Steve and BFCElvis for letting this thread go on, and your reasonable moderation policy.  Thank you as well Steve for the insightful commentary; I find it a very useful and informed source of information -Your background in Soviet and Russian military history and the time spent beforehand in scoping out the backstory around CMBS which has turned out to be prescient.  Thank you as well for the countless hours of enjoyment I've had over the years playing your creations!
To the contributers -thank you as well for the information and commentary.  It makes for a good sanity check against the other sources of information that bounce around out there.
To Haiduk -I wish you all the best for success and safety in defending against this onslaught driven by one man whose actions right now do not seem rationale
To the people of Ukraine: Slava Ukraini!
To the people of the rest of the world -keep pressure on your governments to continue to help Ukraine with meaningul aid and punish Russia till they withdraw.
Finally to the people of Russia: I hope that Vladamir Putin's days as your leader are short and that you have a real democratic opening.  I think the west bears no ill will to Russian people.  I think most of the world would welcome a democratic and economically thriving Russia.
Chris
 

Here is the video where it was taken from. Seems legit. Even the patch of 1st CAV.
 

Who said they didn't try? In the first night they launched nearly a hundred missile strikes to take out airfields and air defenses (that's how I learned that an S-300 launch sounds like a salute pop and can be heard 30km away).
Most of those MISSED. Because russian precision munitions aren't precise at all.
Not to mention all our planes weren't there thanks to US intelligence and, quite possibly, are not operating from Ukrainian airfields.

The most detailed information on Russian forces involved that I have seen so far:
 

And now to something to get a smile on your face:
 
 

Hi everyone. Nikita here.
I'm still in Crimea. I have to be careful with every word, especially after being detained on 24th by police and FSB, so I will be brief. I am literally shaking as I type due to adrenaline, but we all need to be strong these days.
1) Ukraine will be free. The bastards will fail. I can clearly see it.
2) We witness an insane amount of heroism. Which is truly inspiring.
3) Thanks to Steve and other people from here who were kind to me in the past and took time and patience to communicate with me. It made a lot of difference in the end and made me a person who I am today.

And now to something to get a smile on your face:
 
 

And now to something to get a smile on your face:
 
 

And now to something to get a smile on your face:
 
 

And now to something to get a smile on your face:
 
 

I think for the West, especially Europe this is a decisive moment. If we back up now, we're lost. And betray all our ideals, where many people died and suffered for. As I said before, we have to DO something. So yes, a corridor, a NOFLY-zone and no fear for nuclear threats. The future and freedom of Europe and the rest of the free world is at stake.
“Though much is taken, much abides; and though We are not now that strength which in old days Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.”
Alfred Lord Tennyson
 

Wow, what a crazy weekend!
So I figure I might be able to add to the discussion on the whole state of things, people normally have to pay for this but I like you guys so much you can have it gratis.  
We are currently in a human social singularity and have been since the beginning of the pandemic.  Historians may very well point out that 1991 to 2022 was one big singularity.  By that I mean the coin is literally in the air and there is no real way to tell how it will land.  So here we are all spinning in a massive uncertainty and trying to cling onto certainty, very human.  The best we can honestly do right now is enhance our strategic agility and collective resilience because no one really knows how this thing will unfold (trust me). Predictive assessment and projections are about as accurate as throwing dice in these situations so I really encourage everyone to avoid getting to attached to any one version of reality.
So that all said, here is what we can say:
War, all war, is a human social activity that is defined by a collision of certainties.  It is a theory with primary components of: a version of reality, communication, negotiation and sacrifice, all laid overtop a foundation of culture/identity and power.  Right now this is a three way war (at least): Russia, Ukraine and the West (for want of a better word).  I include the West not only for the material and volunteer fighters but the incredible amount of information warfare being waged all pretty much in the direction of Russia.  Further the West also has a vision of reality and certainty stake in all this.
So what?  Well the versions of reality by all parties is pretty clear by now, Russia's is a still a little vague but it is hard not to see an overall aim here.  Communication is literally happening live on YouTube and Twitter in all its forms. Negotiation is ongoing in so many dimensions it would be impossible to see them all.  Sacrifice, which is more than the obvious tragedy of loss of life it is what each side is willing to lose in order to win, is largely unknown outside of some really big rocks (e.g. The west is not willing to sacrifice New York for Kyiv).  This war is definitely existential for Ukraine, maybe for Russian and very impactful for the western based view of the world order.  In summary this system is still in collision and it is almost impossible to tell where it will land; if you want to know how a war ends, you have to fight it first. 
So what can we tell so far?  Well for that I take a look at the deeper power frameworks:
If we take Power as Will, Strength, Relationships and Opportunity (there are other models but this one works):
- Opportunity.  The options spaces for a short sharp war, which probably served Russian ends, is pretty much closed.  And here I mean for all sides.  Ukraine has dug in and I am not sure they would listen at a local level if the Ukrainian government begged them to put down arms.  Russian military operations have not gone according to plan.  There is too much evidence of stalls, logistical screw ups and frankly disturbing losses (mins/dis information caveats accepted - some of this equipment being towed by Ukrainian tractors are Div level assets).  The Russian quick definitive war options spaces have likely collapsed unless they are willing to escalate to the WMD level.  The West has swung the other way, dramatically.  Soft support and kinda weak signals have been galvanized in a manner I find shocking to be honest.  This, and the fourth party in this fight, the people of the global community, is also something I am not sure anyone was ready for.  So what?  Opportunity-wise Russia is facing one of two spheres of options: negotiate a "just enough win" or dig in for a long hard grind.  Ukraine is looking to "just lose enough" or pretty much "hey Russia go f#ck yourself" and wage a hybrid war for the history books (we are talking Iberian Peninsula "war to the knife" type stuff).  There have been zero signs of regional Ukrainian splits beyond the Donbas (and even there), so while Balkanization is likely on the table there is a lot of space between initial bargaining positions.
- Relationships.  This could not have gone better for Ukraine if they actually sat down and workshopped it as a movie script.  Russia is isolated and villainized to a point I am not sure even the most optimistic western planner could hope for.  China and India are basically staying out of this as far as I can see, while Russia's allies are Belarus and...?  I mean if its true, the freakin Chechens (modern day Cossacks) said "no thank you".  Only the most delusional Russophile could describe this as anything but a total relationship disaster for Russia and enormous victory for Ukraine, at least so far.
- Strength.  Well this is a deep rabbit hole but I am pretty sure most experts will (and are) saying that Russia still has an enormous military advantage (even subtracting the nuclear equation).  Their economy is crashing a lot faster than many thought so unless those "military contractors" on the Russian side are being paid in USD, it is going to hurt eventually.  But Russia is a big machine that will take a long time to choke out economically - at least that is the theory, I am beginning to wonder.  So if this turns into a long grinding war we will likely see urban sieges (wow that takes me back) and a brutal insurgency that is really not good for anyone.  Russians will bleed, heavily and Ukraine will take decades to recover.  In the end, neither side is showing an inability to muster and project military power, at least for now.
- Will, the church of warfare, and it definitely applies here. Whose will break first?  Not the West, our stakes are much lower and we are pretty much all in for the little guy, plus we are not hurting.  Putin really has only one option space wrt to western Will and that is nuclear war; however, he will likely suffer a 9mm headache if he tries to go that far.  Ukrainian Will, well one can only go on online video and open source here but it seems pretty clear that Ukrainian will to fight has escalated in the last 5 days, not diminished.  Compare the Ukraine to the Afghan National Army vs Taliban last Aug if one wants a stark contrast of the concept of Will.  
Russia, hoo buddy, lets sit down and have a conversation.  So things have definitely not gone according to any sane plan.  The Ukrainians are really pissed off and are digging in hard, they own the ground and are being supplied by the best the west can give them and that cheque is pretty close to blank.  So, how bad do you really want the Ukraine? I mean really want it?  This is making that little misadventure to Afghanistan back in 79 look pretty benign.  You can probably "win" this militarily but it may very well break your nation trying to do it.  Russian Will is right now the center of gravity for this whole thing and time is not on its side.  I am not sure the Russian people have the stomach for a months long siege of Kyiv (In 16-17, it took 115k Iraqis with western support and all the airspace 9 months to take Mosul from about 12k ISIL fighters), so what does next Christmas look like for Russians, cause I suspect Ukrainians are already planning for it. 
Anyway, just keep watching but I do recommend that we take mental health breaks too because this is still got room to be one crazy ride.  Oh and remember while you are at it that there are those, even on this forum, who cannot take mental health breaks, this is not theoretical for them so try and keep that in mind too.
 
 

The only way this isn't REALLY bad down the road is if the Russians quit and go home. The Ukrainians are fighting as hard as anyone ever has, near as makes no matter. The Russians are starting to use MLRS systems against populated areas, next they will start in with one of their fuel-air atrocities. Before this is over Ukrainian teenage girls are going to be blowing themselves up at Russian checkpoints to take a few Russians to hell with them, unless the Russians GO HOME. Bleeping Bleep people this is an awful mess to make over one old guys delayed midlife crisis. It is a god awful tragedy for 99.999% of Russians, too. Real value of Every asset in Russia is off by 80% this morning, By Friday it might be 95%. FOR WHAT?

So the consensus here is that Putin will up the weight and contribute the next 1/4 of his forces to get Kyiv and Charkiw. He will start to attack the cities with artilley and cruise missiles while sending the army of Belarus to the west of Ukraine to cut them from supplies of the west.
What do you think will the West do, once the civilian casualties of the population become intolerable? Do you think NATO, EU or independent nations that border to Ukraine will act to hold a relief corridor open? Or declare the western half of Ukraine as a NOFLY-zone to protect the evacuees? Or do you think they will do nothing in fear of nuclear retaliation?

The irony is that you are making a large issue about someone who might lose his job because he doesn't speak out about the war (and it's not that he is dirt poor and needs those couple of EUR to feed his children). 
But on the other side of the coin are heavy Smerch MLRS cluster munitions targeting densely populated civilian area's, which you don't seem to have an issue with.
I think what we're seeing in Europe is that all those who were looking at both sides of the coin, have now seen that one side favors aggressive war under false pretenses with megalomaniac claims about 'one people, one empire' while the other is defending their country against the aggression.

 Ukraine is a country with a lot of corruption among other issues, but that doesn't make them deserving of being invaded and occupied; they haven't invaded any parts of Russia so the talk about self defense / security is just simply BS.
Your moral compass seems to have been lost long ago. If you feel for the orchestra director, send him some money. Ours will go to the Ukrainians defending their country against his dictator friend.

Very interesting twitter thread here relating to Aleksandra Dugin who has apparently been a big influence on Putin's ideology/philosophy . 
https://twitter.com/TobyVenables/status/1497916322469928960?s=20&t=KzqCcXBuSmZk5cIOLfX35w

The ruble, which was already at a historic low, down almost 30% so far. Russia's central bank is pushing back trading several hours ahead of what is likely an even bigger crash. We are truly in uncharted territory here.
I can't overstate how unprecedented this is. The ruble was at 25 to the dollar pre-2014 and 60 after the oil crash that year.
Most Russians don't have savings. 20m are in poverty. Migrants send remittances to Central Asia. It's ordinary people who will really suffer.
Russian bank is offering dollars at the rate of 166 rubles. The 120 ruble rate they had last night, or 130 ruble rate they had 45 minutes ago, was a steal by comparison

Well. I think I got that right. Ukraine is "one of us and we want them in the European Union,” Ursula von der Leyen has told Euronews.