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Sarjen

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  1. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Baneman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm, notice how the CM spotting model is NOT broken ! 😲
    The first and 2nd vehicles drove past that ambush position which is no more than 10 AS's from the road and covered by only spindly trees and saw nothing !
  2. Like
    Sarjen reacted to db_zero in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We may be approaching an inflection point where the main objectives are in play.
    IMO the Russians are probably going to go the siege route. The gritty and costly nature of urban combat will be too risky. Putin has already authorized the payment of huge sums of rubles for families of soldiers killed or wounded and even tyrants have limits placed on the number of young men they can send to the meat grinder.
    I would guess If the decision is made to assault urban centers it will be after a long siege and those foreign fighters from Syria and other places, however many their true number is, will be sent in first to wear down defenders and make the defenders use ammo and other supplies before Russian forces are used...
    I was surprised when it was mentioned the US Army doesn't have any guide to urban warfare. That may have changed. A while back though I did see a write up about how the Pentagon was allocating money to train in subterranean warfare so that may be changing.
    For those interested in the nuts and bolts of what may face the Russians should they decide to take urban areas by direct assault here are some interesting links.
    https://mwi.usma.edu/the-eight-rules-of-urban-warfare-and-why-we-must-work-to-change-them/
    https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/
    https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/MCWP 3-35.3.pdf
    https://www.army.mod.uk/umbraco/Surface/Download/Get/11772
    https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/03/08/russia-doesnt-train-troops-urban-warfare-its-about-learn-consequences-ukraine.html
    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/urban-warfare-ukraine-russia
    A couple of good books on the subject:
    Concrete Hell: Urban Warfare From Stalingrad to Iraq
    Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities
    I've yet to find a good sim that models urban warfare in great detail. Its probably a very difficult thing to do anyway.
     
  3. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Probus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its the leased aircraft fleet that gets seized that is worrying to me.
  4. Like
    Sarjen reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    yeah regardless of what you might have been told, there is a moment where you fire your weapon, drop that bomb, fire that rocket where you KNOW you are hitting a non combatant.  At that moment if you haven't realized you have committed a war crime, someone needs to point it out to you.  Hopefully permanently.
  5. Like
    Sarjen reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Air-dropped cluster tractors.
  6. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Already rehearsing it mate - sneak preview image ...

     
  7. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm also a Cold War kid, and I must admit that this feels different. The whole MAD doctrine is based on both actors being rational.
    Two questions: How crazy is Putin really? Could he launch if he wanted to?
  8. Like
    Sarjen reacted to rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Me too. Just the mention of going full nuclear brought back childhood fears, nightmares and the looming threat of total annihilation. I can’t turn those emotions off even as an adult.
  9. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You're not doing your country any favors by insulting the West and belittling the impressive sanctions and arms deliveries the West (and not only the UK) has implemented in an amazingly short period of time. A Kremlin troll couldn't do any better. Food for thought.
    2022 or 2025, fact is that we have to deal with the biggest nuclear power of the world. That's something to think about carefully.
    The corruption and chaos in Ukraine has done as much against it becoming member of EU/NATO, as the caution of the West. Perhaps even more so.
  10. Like
    Sarjen reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    😏 this is getting kind of old now.  You recall something about Javelins?  $350 million in weapons and supplies delivered in less than a week? Any supplies the US has been giving for a couple years now?  Massive sanctions beyond anything with the possible exception of those against Iraq when it invaded Kuwait?
    The West is doing a balancing act.  We are giving as much equipment as we can without providing Putin with any pretext to widen the war which frankly would play well for him at home and give him an out better than having to say the UKR kicked his ass.  We appreciate you'd like us to just go all in and crush the Russian military.  That isn't going to happen.  Poland jumped the gun here and likely made a hash of the plan.
  11. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well EU had to make itself dependent on someone, at least until we could get enough renewable energy up and running and gas was supposed to be at least not as bad as oil or coal. So, Russia and the US were candidates.
    Now, you really have to understand just how much trust both George W. Bush and Donald Trump shattered over here. During G.W. Bush's presidency German chancellor Schröder laid the foundations for our even further commitment to Russian gas. And Mr. Trump openly tried to blackmail the EU. Several times. Up until now, while everyone knew that Putin is far from being the "Flawless Democrat" former Chancellor Schröder once called him, he never tried that (with the EU). Also worth mentioning (something that came up over here quite often), the Soviet Union and later Russia was always a reliable supplier. Did we trust Putin? Not really. Trump & Co showed us, however, that the USA also were far from being the reliable partner they supposedly used to be.
    Personally, I still have trouble believing that the USA support Ukraine because they are a democracy defending western values and not because Ukraine is of geostrategic interest against one the (at least nuclear) superpowers undermining US dominance.
    Last but not least. At least German foreign policies was based on Change through Trade. It worked rather well back in the 70s and 80s and so somehow we tricked ourselves into thinking that through trade we could slowly kind of change the autocratic countries around the world towards our values. And also make money while we are at it...
  12. Like
    Sarjen reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Obviously NATO budgets need to increase so that future versions of CM will have more gear for us to play with.  Why else?
  13. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My fear for a long time has been that our societies are completely infiltrated by moles, traitors and bought politicians, at an unprecedented scale. It will be very hard to flush them out. The new God nowadays is money and a lot of people are for sale.
  14. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Nope, you are wrong. NATO will defend all it's members, including the Baltic states. If Ukraine would have been a NATO member, NATO would have gone to war. Period. The fact that NATO isn't 'ready' is no matter in that respect. NATO will and can fight AND WIN if necessary. Although I emotionally understand you and would like to see military action from NATO, I rationally know that it's the right decision not to intervene military.
    I also resent your remark about 'the little indirect help NATO provides'. NATO is doing all it can, except going to war. It's sending impressive arms deliveries and does everything to weaken the Russian war economy. Even if NATO was fully prepared for an offensive ground war, it would be extremly dangerous to do so and risk a nuclear escalation.
    Apart from that NATO/EU is doing all it can to help the millions Ukrainians who are fleeing their country. And the West is risking it's economy in order to discourage and punish Putin for his aggression.
    Again, I understand your emotions, but a little gratitude towards your only friends is in order.
  15. Like
    Sarjen reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's kinda my point.  Anyone can make a claim to Ukraine, and it's all totally irrelevant to what's happening now because it's all just a pretense for a violent land grab.  F-ing Mongolia once ruled Ukraine also.  None of this matters.  I am not some dumbf-k just off the turnip truck.  My point is that this is all completely and utterly beside the point.  The vast majority of Ukraine doesn't want Russian rule, and are willing to risk death to avoid it.  Putin initiated a violent overthrow of 30-year established Ukrainian sovereignity, and what happend 70, 100, or 400 years is all just piss in the wind relative to that.
  16. Like
    Sarjen reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    At the rate the war is going....
  17. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Freyberg in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Give John Kettler some respect.
    He is a CM legend - you loudmouths don't own this forum and you haven't earned the right to slag off at him.
  18. Like
    Sarjen reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hey all, there's so many posts that it's easy for someone to miss something.  So there's some duplication.  But multiple posts duplicating complaints about multiple posts then me saying let's not worry about posts about multiple posts takes up more space than simply ignoring multiple posts and posts about posts about complaining about multiple posts. 
  19. Like
    Sarjen reacted to SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Currently a vehicle of the Bundeswehre is considered not operational if a turn signal is not working because every vehicle has to comply with the rules of the civil Road Traffic Licensing Regulation, the so called Straßenverkehrsordnung.
  20. Like
    Sarjen reacted to cyrano01 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This; when I saw the RPG gunner heading back to the same spot I was mentally shouting, 'noooo, he will  have rotated his turret, he will see you easily.'  CMBS would appear to be a harder teacher than the  Marshal Rodion Malinovsky Military Armored Forces Academy.
  21. Like
    Sarjen reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This visual guide to the first ten days of the war is illustrated through videos recorded by ordinary people, and verified by @Cen4infoRes – an independent, volunteer-led organisation set up to combat disinformation
    Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map by Cen4infoRes · MapHub
  22. Like
    Sarjen reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My rational mind thinks you are quite right, Bulletpoint! 
    But I am completely enraged at this and am tired of cowering from despots who use the "watch out, I'm craaaaaaazy!" threat to intimidate others.  So I want a safe zone declared in western Ukraine, protected by NATO land and air forces (I think this is not an insane idea).  And I want US drones to start attacking Russian columns (this might be insane).
  23. Like
    Sarjen reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    wow, what amazing coverage of this war.  Definitely better than anywhere else. 
    So, what does Putin know?  does he see these videos of entire columns captured, mostly intact?  Does he know that all that fancy equipment that parades past him in Moscow doesn't actually exist in the field?  My point is that he might actually only be hearing what he wants to hear.  When upper management (in this case, Putin), trains an organization over years that he wants to hear good news, that's what will be provided.  So does he actually have a realistic idea of what's going on?  I am sure he does at home level, but does he see these videos? 
    On the fighting side of things, it seems that while russians advance along main roads, their supply/support tails are being attacked since the advance bypasses so much terrain.  So the russians don't have enough troops to both advance and to actually pacify the areas they advance through.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are getting nicely supplied by taking all the stuff that's supposed to feed the enemy advance.  This is amazing.  And it works because the Ukrainians aren't giving up once their area has bad guys driving through it, as would normally be the case for most people.
    And so now he bans facebook, et al, in desperate attempt to keep folks in the dark.  But anyone w half a brain would know that doing this means Putin is covering something up.  So here's to hoping there's a lot of folks w more than half a brain.
  24. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course, And false video of our General Staff with Turkish TB2 strikes as if Ukrainian is the confirmation. I suppose, somebody ass got kicked and such stuff will be impossible in future.  
  25. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We have Igla and Igla-1 on armament, not old Strela 2/3, and they can hit aerial targets on minimal height in 10 m
    Thanks for support! My familiar now in Krakow and tell my the same
    Jesche Polska nie zginela ! (sorry, I havn't installed Polish keybord to write proper letters  )
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