panzermartin

What? Did someone just mention "flares"?
 

Slovakian artist Rado Javor, illustrator of Total War games series issiued two new artworks about the war in Ukraine. Recently he has drew series "seasons in Ukraine" about war of 2014-2015.
Seasons:
Spring in Ukraine (fighting around Sloviansk)

Summer in Ukraine (Ukrainian July offensive)

Autumn in Ukraine

Winter in Ukraine (Donetsk airport)

Also two other artworks
Sunflower fields (tank ram of sen.lt Abramovych 12th of August 2014)

Winter war (campaign of winter 2015)

And new arts:
The general

Moskva

More his arts on history, military, game, sci-fi tematics you can find here: https://www.deviantart.com/radojavor

I assume tis because they have better thermals  (well, more of them) than the UKR armor/mech. I don't know how UKR are now, but in CMBS its a real problem as UKR v RUS. Avoiding long range spotting by RUS tanks is a big part of my "maneuvering" as UKR. I just get nailed so fast, its incredibly dispiriting ( I havent used oplots/BMs in a long time, just seems silly).
Funnily enough, I'd gotten to the point of avoiding moving heavies until later in the fight, when I sorta knew sightlines and oppo placements and using them as infantry killers, not Tank v tank. I used ATGMs for that.
 

Indeed the news are not confirmed, although they are still circulating in major news sites. I won't be surprised if this happens in future though given the increasingly russian influx. And we shouldn't trust russian words right? 
Honestly, about the NATO bases in Turkey , whatever I have read indicates a nearly idle situation and I haven't heard any major operation from Incirlik, contrasted to the past years which was very active. A lot has changed since. The Syria campaign, the coup against Erdogan with many in Turkey blaming some degree US involvement. The epicenter of US operations has shifted towards Greece with the new Alexandroupoli base and existing Suda Bay base. https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_us-military-base-turkey-has-uncertain-future/6180061.html
On the 1974 while you are correct, it was practically a pretext like what caused Russia to intervene in Donbas, though people here would prefer the word invasion. That doesn't change though the impression that Turkey has the attitude to act on its own against international law and its own alliances and getting away with it. Whatever measures the West took they simply weren't enough to punish Turkey for killing and displacing thousands of people and occupying 40% of the island for half a century now. It's an ongoing disgrace if you ask me. 
Ps. I want to add that I'd love one day all this hostility would belong to the past. We are very close as people. I have turkish friends that have fled the country because of Erdogan. Like in case of Russia there are mainly poor, rural areas that are mainly feeding support to the regime. 

Between this and @Huba's thread, seems a lot like there were (shocker here) some serious shortcomings with the way the ship was handled. Anyone want to bet the ammunition detonation was the result of poor maintenance or mismanaged handling?
This quoted thread suggests the AD systems were inactive during the attack, probably only the main tracking radar was powered up and tracking the incoming TB-2. Some failure led to an ammunition fire in the front of the ship. A lack of proper damage control let the fire spread out of control allowing a magazine to catch fire and explode. Then the captain (or one of his subordinates if the captain was indeed killed during the initial stage of the recovery effort) ordered his crew to abandon ship. If you believe the analysis of Huba's thread, seems like this order was given prior to the ship being in extreme danger of sinking, ie too early. Probably thats what were seeing in these photos and what really caused her total loss. By the time anyone got her under tow or decided to put out the fire it was just too late, the damage too significant. One might compare this to the USS Stark attack. Indeed the famous photo of the Stark doesn't look that far off in terms of list or fire. Maybe the Stark got 'lucky' and was hit on the superstructure, maybe the Moskva was hit directly in the magazine or in a missile tube that started the initial fire. No way right now to know. But on the Stark the crew rallied and salvaged the situation long enough to recover the ship and minimize losses. but here the exact opposite seems to have occurred. 
Suggests that, yet again, the Russian military is suffering from extreme and significant systemic issues including bad training, low on the ground (deck) standards, low morale, bad combat AND support doctrine, and a command level that doesnt care about much beyond their own skin. And this situation just reinforces that indeed its effecting every branch and every level of service. 

Yes the timing is not particularly good. Although Turkey is gaining many points in all fronts, at least this is the picture now. The last time we followed allies against the russians, it backfired with the minor Asia disaster in 1922, where they helped Ataturk and an ancient thriving communty since 2000 bc was lost in flames...(our foolish leaders helped too of course). 
But since Steve, you haven't relaased any CM game in the aegean (although it would be interesting with terrain and mixing russian/NATO equipment ) i it is a good first sign this ain't gonna happen 😁

Yes the timing is not particularly good. Although Turkey is gaining many points in all fronts, at least this is the picture now. The last time we followed allies against the russians, it backfired with the minor Asia disaster in 1922, where they helped Ataturk and an ancient thriving communty since 2000 bc was lost in flames...(our foolish leaders helped too of course). 
But since Steve, you haven't relaased any CM game in the aegean (although it would be interesting with terrain and mixing russian/NATO equipment ) i it is a good first sign this ain't gonna happen 😁

If anything, I'd expect current events to make conflict over Cyprus as *less* likely, not more. The Turkish government is a minority one, propped up by hard-right "neo-ottomans", but the line that the ruling party has taken is one that's an intermediate one between Russia and the west. Those scales have likely shifted quite a bit over the last few months...

Turkey-Russia relations are complicated though (as are US-Turkey relations). They have conflicting interests in Syria and in the Caucasus. An in the black sea as well for that matter. In Ukraine, Turkey has called the situation a war and therefore closed the Dardanelles to Russian ships (and Ukraine's, for what that's worth).  But at the same time they also have points where their interests align.
But I have a hard time seeing anything where Turkey is going to stick its neck out to support Russia in any meaningful way. There's nothing in it for them that would be worth antagonising the rest of NATO (of which Turkey is still a member - for now).  The EU and USA make up a large chunk of Turkey's foreign trade, and the financial kicking they would get for supporting Russia would be crushing. Plus having the whole of NATO unequivocially supporting Greece in its territorial disputes with Turkey in the Agean. There's nothing Russia can offer it that's worth even a fraction of what it would have to lose.
 

That's grotesque 

That's grotesque 

Eerie how the mind sees patterns that are so fitting.  The tank turret looking like a skull is quite striking.  I could see a scaled version of this becoming some goth jewelry pendant.

That's grotesque 

I don't understand the tone sorry. The refugee crisis is a humanitarian disaster since the West decided to  violently intervene in Middle east and Afghanistan but without really investing in a long term plan for the day after. 

I don't understand the tone sorry. The refugee crisis is a humanitarian disaster since the West decided to  violently intervene in Middle east and Afghanistan but without really investing in a long term plan for the day after. 

I don't understand the tone sorry. The refugee crisis is a humanitarian disaster since the West decided to  violently intervene in Middle east and Afghanistan but without really investing in a long term plan for the day after. 

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is squaring  off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  
So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:
On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"



These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:
 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:
These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 
Ok so what? 
- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 
- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 
- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  
- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.
- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.
- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 
Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.
#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.
This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 
Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

I don't understand the tone sorry. The refugee crisis is a humanitarian disaster since the West decided to  violently intervene in Middle east and Afghanistan but without really investing in a long term plan for the day after. 

Yes I agree, I was partially joking because we are so spoiled with the non stop feed of battle footage.

Maybe, but based on Russian reactions I am thinking the UA pulled it off.  Why not show video?  Any number of OPSEC reasons.  For example, it could be that it wasn't a Ukrainian Neptune missile but a western missile system that we have not "declared" or how the film would show how the UA pulled it off.  Remember that most of the social media we have seen is from irregulars and territorial defence, the conventional UA is pretty tight on this stuff.

There is a World War going on at the moment, some of us find this more interesting to discuss than the actual game. It's history in front of our eyes and we try to decode it with our, truth is, limited knowledge. For the developers I'm sure they are studying and absorbing all the insane amount of info that will make the game engine even more realistic in the future. 
I also personally don't feel like playing the game right now, when we have seen so much grim real world footage...

There is a World War going on at the moment, some of us find this more interesting to discuss than the actual game. It's history in front of our eyes and we try to decode it with our, truth is, limited knowledge. For the developers I'm sure they are studying and absorbing all the insane amount of info that will make the game engine even more realistic in the future. 
I also personally don't feel like playing the game right now, when we have seen so much grim real world footage...

A country devastated, dead people in the tens of thousands and all you think about is to play a game? 
Are you serious?

+1 because I have no reactions left 🙂

It wasn't a german initiative to push things in the East and ignite the mess we are in today. They are certainly not happy, they have deep bonds with Russia. It was Nuland who said on the phone f*** the EU. 
And if it's WW3, Europe will pay the price again and the ones that lead the situation across the Atlantic will once again thrive over our ruins. Does Germany really want to get dragged by US and UK, the centuries old imperialists that they were always at war with and burned their cities to the ground? And if this happens , they will have to first clear from their memory the last time they marched eastwards