Commanderski

The floodgate between Kyiv reservoir and Irpin' river is open (or blew up?) The water gradually fill the valley of the river. Here is a map of flooding on 18th of March. The "big water" doesn't come yet to Hostomel area, where Russians can cross narrow part of the river
  

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...😀

Russians activated on NW and W directions from Kyiv after three days of relative lull. 
They are trying again to cross Irpin' river in it narrowest place near Moshchun village, also they shifted some accents to the north and now shell and atatck our positions near Liutizh village (the place of Liutizh bridgehead in 1943) - this is in 12 km from northern city limit. Some clases reported also around Bucha and Irpin'
Russian troops conducted some acrions NW from the Makariv - Borodianka line, there is knowingly about airstrike on Zabuyannia village in 15 km NW from Makariv, which controls UKR troops. 
Here the video of next attempt to cross Irpin' river
 

No to be too off topic here but just spent the last 5 days in the hospital for some unexpected surgery. There is no news channel that covers this war like this thread does. I sure missed it and glad to be back.
Battlefront.com, your complete honest news source...😀

No to be too off topic here but just spent the last 5 days in the hospital for some unexpected surgery. There is no news channel that covers this war like this thread does. I sure missed it and glad to be back.
Battlefront.com, your complete honest news source...😀

No to be too off topic here but just spent the last 5 days in the hospital for some unexpected surgery. There is no news channel that covers this war like this thread does. I sure missed it and glad to be back.
Battlefront.com, your complete honest news source...😀

dang that would skew the scales a bit more.  Current list:
MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division
General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev commander 8th CAA 
Guards Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky commander of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment 
Colonel Yuryi Agarkov, the commander of 33rd motor-rifle regiment (Kamyshyn, Volgograd oblast) of 20th Guard motor-rifle division
Colonel Alexander Vladimirovich Zakharov, 6th tank regiment commander
Colonel Sergei Porokhnya commander of the 12th separate guards engineering brigade
Colonel Sergey Sukharev, commander of 331st Guards Airborne Regiment (of the 98th VDV Division)
Colonel Igor Nikolaev Commander of 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment, the 3rd Motor Rifle Division.
Colonel Sergey Savvateeyev, Deputy commander of Rosgvardia SOBR
Colonel Nikolay Ovcharenko, the chief of engineer troops of Western Miliatary District.
Captain of 1st rank (=colonel) Andrei Paliy Deputy of Black Sea Fleet commander, 
Lt Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade
Lt Colonel Dmitry Safronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade
Lt.colonel Alexei Khasanov, deputy commander of 31st Fighter aviation regiment
Lt Colonel Mikhail Orchikov was deputy commander of a motor-rifle brigade 19th motor-rifle division
Lt.colonel Alexandr Pazynich, the regimental commander deputy for human resources of 14th Guard Fighter Aviation Regiment
Lt.colonel Renat Gaisin
Lt.colonel Ilya Piatkin, 38 years  SOBR
Lt.colonel Roman Ryabov, 50 years  SOBR
Lt.colonel (likely) Mikhail Rodionov, 46 years   SOBR
Guards Major Burlakov Andrei Petrovich, Deputy Chief of Intelligence Staff - Chief of Intelligence Regiment
Major Sergey Krylov deputy battalion commander from the VDV's 331st Airborne Regiment
Deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M) that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF...

Captured
Lieutenant Colonel Maxim Kryshtop: Deputy Commander of the 47th Aviation Regiment 
Lt. Colonel Astrakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich:  SOBR
 

So I think we are at the point that we can call it, I think the Russian strategic Offensive Phase of this war is pretty much at an end.  We went from Quick War, to Siege/Grinding War, to what is looking more like Balkan War as Russian forces appear to be 1) pulling back and consolidating and, 2) trying to assert control in the areas they do "control".  This does not mean we won't see offensive action at the tactical scale, in fact I suspect the Russians will burn assets and troops trying to take Mariupole and any other hub they can; however, the big red sweeps are likely over, at least for now.
So what happens next?  Or maybe what could happen next? 
- Strategic Pause.  The Russians almost look like they are trying to conduct a strategic pause, which is in effect and attempt to re-mobilize within political constraints/restraints.  Stories of troops being pulled in from the east and weird "contracts" are a possible sign that Russia is trying for a major re-org/re-boot before they would likely double down on Plan A.  Given how badly they have been chewed up this theory is not too far out there.  If Russia goes this way, it means they think they can sustain the war for months into the summer and make another run at Putin's Dream.  They will need to re-stock a lot of equipment and ammunition so there should be signals in strategic Russian production and pulling out of war stocks.  On the pers side we might see some sort of rumors of a Russian version of "stop-loss" as they start playing fast and loose with military contracts.  I don't think Putin has the backing to go full national mobilization (or he would have likely already done it), so this will be "as much as we can and still be able to call this a 'special operation' nonsense".
- Grab, Hold, Bargain.  More likely, but not exclusive of the Strategic Pause theory is that Russians are going to try to dig in and hold onto as much leverage as they can in order to shore up their position at the negotiating table.  This will likely see lots of medieval stuff to terrorize the UKR government into concessions.  We saw exactly the same ploys in the Bosnian War with Sarajevo (and Mariupole is starting to look worse than that).  The question will be how long this takes but it cedes the pressure back onto the UKR government in a typical extortionist/domestic abusers argument of "it is your own fault that I have to beat you". 
- Last Gasp.  Another option, and one I know favored by Steve, is that this is the beginning of the end for the Russian military in Ukraine.  What we are seeing is a lot of "scrambling for success" a the lower levels so that they can say "we did our part" while the higher levels are no doubt thinking about "alternative options".  The test as whether this is collapse or simply digging in will be how well the Russians can hold up to inevitable UA counter attacks.
So Whats?
    First off the Russian military has an enormous defensive problem, entirely of their own making.  By my rough measurements, by attacking along 4-5 separate operational axis of advance in an attempt to take the whole eastern part of the country, they now have a frontage of roughly 1400km+ to try and "defend".  That is roughly three times as long as the entire Western Front in WW1.  To make any areas they control even close to airtight, they are going to need hundreds of thousands of troops to do it.  Troops I am not sure they have, nor can equip, let alone conduct C2 for at this point.  If Russia is serious about Grab, Hold Bargain, they may have to simply wholesale abandon some axis and gains likely in the East in order to be able to create credible defensives and pressures.  We do know the UA has troops all along those 1300km frontage, they are either regular, hybrid, or resistance/territorial defence.  They know the ground intimately and are continuing to see a steady flow of weapons in from the west.  How the UA counter-offensive goes will be key to determining the actual situation of Russian forces.
    Second, without making the areas they defend "airtight" they will continue to be plagued by attacks along their LOCs.  The Russians might try to make ironclad support corridors but given the ranges of the UKR weapons systems this is a huge undertaking of interlinked strong points just to get the supplies to some sort of front.  This will make the logistics problem worse.  That, and defence still puts a lot of strain on logistical systems, but in different ways.  Ammunition, not gas becomes the central issue.  Field defence stores and landmines take a lot of truck space, so we should be seeing more of that, along with of course artillery and other ammunition.  That and now Russia needs a lot more manpower, which all need a lot more pers-based supplies such as food, water, clothing, sanitation (unless you want General Disease getting into the game) and medical.
    Third, C4ISR in the defensive is a bit of a nightmare.  Whereas in the offence you can prioritize your main efforts, in the defence you have to be able to see and coordinate fires everywhere at the same time.  Doing that along a 1300km frontage is...well, simply insane but hey here we are.  The UA, did a pretty good job of it but it was their ground, they had the HUMINT going their way, and very likely buckets of ISR feeds from the west.  The Russian architecture has not demonstrated they are set up for this.  Further, this is contested airspace so one cannot simply dig in and sit, they are going to have to keep high value assets moving, like artillery, all the time or it will get tagged and hit quickly.  This will mean that Russians will need to employ a dynamic manoeuvre defence, much like the UA did, and I am not seeing that within the Russian repertoire.
    The UA counter-offensive will be key.  I suspect they will stick with the game that has carried them this far and simply cut up Russian rear areas to isolate and then chop up slices piecemeal to keep making gains.  Their hybrid "sharp mass" has been extremely effective in the defence, we will see how it does in the offense but I give them good odds to be honest.  
   If the Russians can do a full Strategic re-set, a big ask, then we could see a Round 2 Offensive Phase of this thing but the odds of it success get worse everyday as the UA "beginners" are becoming veterans very widely.  Further they are likely refining C4ISR building on their successes and more and more lethal aid is pouring in from the west.  If the Russians cannot get back up and moving before that $800M from the US shows up, well they too deserve what happens next.   
   To be honest, if someone tasked me with shooting for a Russian Strategic re-set, I would tell them it is going to take years because whatever they came with in this "come as you are war" was a failure and we are talking about deep military reforms and training in order to re-build a force that could actually pull off what the aspiration of this thing.  In fact you might need to invent a military that does not exist on this planet.  In '03 the US had to advance roughly 500kms to Bagdad and they owned the sky and the sea, had set operational pre-conditions, massive C4ISR overmatch, and have some of the best military logistical systems on the planet.  It took the US 3 weeks to take Bagdad and they were fighting a eroded and beaten Iraqi military that had zero outside support.  The US did not try a 4-5 axis grab along a 1300km frontage because the military planners knew it was impossible with what they had, which was 2-3 times what the Russians brought to this fight (466K, over 500k with allies).  And, politics completely aside, Iraq '03 was not well thought of and still is not well thought of in professional military circles as it failed to secure the gains and led to a multi-year insurgency.  
   So as we proceed on this journey, I am wracking my brain to make a list of the "Dumbest Wars in History" but this one has to be on it and moving upwards rapidly.
 
 

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...😀

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...😀

Uncommon loss. The military ID of captain Konstatntin Druzhkov. Judging on the blood on the paper he was either KIA or WIA. He was radar asset engineer of m/u 40213 - this is 338th radiotechnical (means radar) regiment (Rostov-on-Don and Novocherkask) of 51th AD division of AeroSpace Foces

Two Stugna-P launches (truck and some armor)
 
 

Now we are talking towing 😄 All these Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com) can now be supplied to the Ukrainian army, by the farmers 😃
 
Unfortunatly, I still not having any likes to give. So you get +1 here instead!

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...😀

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...😀

Every time I see a tractor in any situation I instantly hear Ride of Valkyries in my head.

SOF ambushed small convoy with IEDs.
 

Something for the russian general staff to study

I have seen one reportage about Polish mortars, but I don't know were its could go. We have on armament three typed of 60 mm moratrs. First appeared in the end of 2016 and that was M57, bought in Bosnia-Herzegovina (licensed US M2) - and looks like guys on the video shot with such mortar. Further Ukrainian developments of two different manufacturers appeared - MP60 and M60-16 "Kamerton". But they had many design defects, especially M60-16. First of all 60 mm mortars have SOF, probably they also in air-assault troops (probably in recon companies) and in mountain-assault troops (but I don't know were). Maybe in recon battalions and comnapnies too.
What is Bar?

Now would be a good time for China to take back some of it's disputed territory. Vladivostok used to be Qing dynasty's Manchurian homeland named Haishenwai but was annexed by Russia in 1860 after China's second opium war defeat. 

Now would be a good time for China to take back some of it's disputed territory. Vladivostok used to be Qing dynasty's Manchurian homeland named Haishenwai but was annexed by Russia in 1860 after China's second opium war defeat. 

How many NIMH battery cells do you need for a russian "kamikaze" drone?
 
 

Incredible combat footage from inside a BTR-4. Close range street fighting against T-72 ? and BMP-1 + dismounts in Mariupol with autocannon.

Regarding yesterday news about artillery strike on 200-vehicles column in Melitopol area. Looks like this can be true. Today was claimed that ESTIMATED losses of enemy is about 50 vehicles.
Also here SIGINT interception of Russian soldier, which calls to own familiar in Russia and tells how their column was hit by artillery. He tells other column of his unit, which was deployed and started movement from Zelenchuk village (20 km west from Melitopol) was destroyed and only 3 man left. He tells HQ of 58th Army hurries them "go, go, go, move forward faster!", but there is lack of supply and there no any recon, so they suffered from UKR artillery - so they scatetred on small groups to hide in the steppe and fields. Their senior commanders abandoned them and they don't know what to do. They also tells, 205th motor-rifle brigade, where he served recently lost about half of personnel. There is unknown what data of this interception