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acrashb

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  1. Like
    acrashb reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its why the games are without par.
  2. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So I finally took MFSF up and over this area:

    The punchline is that there is not a lot of good news for the Russians along this axis, if their goal is Slovyansk.  I found three rough options for something BTG size to try and break through that Severski-Donetsk River line and none are optimal but some are definitely better than other.
    Axis #1 - Swing north and come across as Seredenje as there is a gap between the Oskil River and that soggy mess to the south.  Possible crossing points right at Seredenji:

    It ain't pretty but it is the best of the bunch.  Problem here is that once you get to a town called Oleksandrivka :
    Welcome to the Black Forest, which one would need to bust through to get to a northern approach to Slovyansk.  Big problem here is then you are on the Izyum axis on advance = traffic jam.
    So then we take Axis 2 - The Russian Most Probable:
    And further up:

    This would be the land of those three bridges:

    So Axis #2 is a hellish landscape from a manoeuvre point of view.  This would be on the back side of Lyman and it is like this for along way north and south.  Worse, it is dominated by high ground pretty to the West and South:   
    Axis 2 will take the least imagination and is basically a frontal - so you know the Russians will pick it.  This is a very complex engineering problem and a major choke point where you are going to get hammered the entire way.  I suspect that the Russians already took a lot of losses back at the Zarichne/Torske choke point:

    Here looking east back towards Kreminna.
    And then there is Axis 3:
    Still pretty messy looking that way but if you swing a bit further south and east, thing open up a fair bunch:
    That is looking south.  Problem with Axis 3 is that one still has to traverse that wooded soggy bit and I could not find any major bridges.  The big advantage of Axis 3 is that it opens way op around the south end of Slovanyanks and you could set up a cut-off and break out further South.
    The Russian may try a combo of these but the long pole in the tent will be engineering support - shame they lost all that equipment in the opening of this thing.  None of these are easy goes, my money is on a Axis 2 & 3 combo as 1 is easier but it really does not lead to anything.
    Either way, a lot of CM battlefields here, heck there is an entire campaign in this.
  3. Like
    acrashb reacted to c3k in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia's options:
    I see Putin declaring a war (on May 9th) against the Nato-led and equipped proxy forces holding Ukraine hostage. It'll be a national crusade to free Ukraine, requiring additional effort and widespread sacrifice. It'll be hard, it'll be long, but like the GPW, victory will be theirs if Russia works and sacrifices enough. (Gotta be worthy, donchayaknow.)
    Next, on the battlefield, the frontlines will stagnate as he tries to consolidate what gains have been made.
    ...and I really can't see the next step.   Russia is behind the curve compared to Ukraine. Every day that gets worse. Economically, militarily, and every other -ly, Russia cannot win.  Putin needs to grab a face-saving opportunity, clothe his dignity in whatever shred he grasps at, and then exit.
     
    Meanwhile, back in reality-ville, with a stabilized front and Russian forces on the defense, it'll be Ukraine's fight to win. They'll start by shaping the battlespace. (<- That always sounds good. Need a powerpoint or three so I can give the General a cheesy "briefer's smile". Hell, if I were feeling cocky, I'd wink at him.) Long-range fires will begin to decimate the Russian artillery and LOCs. After a bit of that, then some accurate shelling of frontline hardpoints, followed by discrete but definite territorial advances.
    Where first?
    Cutting the land bridge to Crimea is ripe with opportunity. (About the time that's happening is when the bridge at Kerch needs to be dropped.)
    Ukraine needs to advance to the pre-2014 borders before stopping.
  4. Upvote
    acrashb got a reaction from Bufo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I thought so at first.  But if you look at the orange-painted tow ring, it's attached to the hitch on the truck and nothing else is. 
  5. Like
    acrashb reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Required possibly in an isolated fire base. Depends on the mission. 
  6. Like
    acrashb reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  7. Like
    acrashb got a reaction from gnarly in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I thought so at first.  But if you look at the orange-painted tow ring, it's attached to the hitch on the truck and nothing else is. 
  8. Like
    acrashb reacted to Vacillator in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Okay, you got me there (mental note, zoom in on any photograph before commenting 😬). 
    So @TheVulture probably has the answer as he described above.
  9. Like
    acrashb reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The extended part is indeed for towing. Not sure about the rear facing rods and little boresight looking thingy.
    Search for M777 being towed and you'll find some pics in towing mode.
    Dave
  10. Like
    acrashb reacted to Machor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And the M777 is not unique in this regard; here's the D-30 being towed:

  11. Like
    acrashb got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Armed forces swim in the sea of civilian culture.  My understanding is that Afghanistan as a whole has tribally-oriented loyalties, hierarchies, etc.  So setup for failure.  
     
    The Afghani armed forces and other security forces took maybe 92000 casualties from about 2001; many fought bravely, but overall were let down by their society and political structures.
  12. Like
    acrashb reacted to LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes, this is a textbook example of how casualties are to be treated and evacuated under fire - drag the casualty out of the danger zone and provide as much cover as possible, through the form of covering fire, smoke grenades, etc. Videos like this show that this unit isn't your typical group of cannon fodder shoved into the line with insufficient training - it's pretty much the same way a US military unit would perform a battlefield evacuation.
  13. Like
    acrashb reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Aye, the political structures in Afghanistan were riddled with corruption to the same extent as (or even more than) the structures in Russia, so even if there were progressive, nation-loyal recruits, the treasure to support them got diverted, and tribal leaders spent it on other things, including troops who were "loyal" to them. Ghost formations were widespread and most of the formations that might've fought for the idea of Afghanistan as a nation that we'd recognise were under-resourced.
    Ukraine was the polar opposite: the concept of nationhood had been being strengthened by an existential threat and the national structures were overwhelmingly supportive of the effort to defend the nation.
  14. Like
    acrashb got a reaction from billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Armed forces swim in the sea of civilian culture.  My understanding is that Afghanistan as a whole has tribally-oriented loyalties, hierarchies, etc.  So setup for failure.  
     
    The Afghani armed forces and other security forces took maybe 92000 casualties from about 2001; many fought bravely, but overall were let down by their society and political structures.
  15. Like
    acrashb reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Albert Pierpoint's words "They will die, and they will pay the price and they will have a proper funeral. This was the case for this man. Albert Pierpoint hanged some of the worst war criminals. 
  16. Like
    acrashb reacted to riptides in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the smoke was more for in distress/casualty spotting on behalf of the men under fire.
  17. Like
    acrashb reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes, indeed. They just have to see them for their strengths and flexibility and not expose them needlessly. As stated, there are many tasks that they can help with, that don't involve going toe-to-toe with 20mm auto cannons or worse. I agree with the sentiment - if thee choice is a civilian 4x4 or a M113, guess which I'm going with?

    Dave
  18. Like
    acrashb reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Lend-Lease was passed by the United States House of Representatives.
  19. Like
    acrashb reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suppose it all comes down to whether one wishes to drive around a hot area in a brightly colored kia mini SUV or an M113.  I would take the M113.  It's obsolete against BMP, BTR, etc, but why wouldn't I want it as a battle taxi if they only other choice is a civilian vehicle?
  20. Like
    acrashb reacted to Machor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Claimed to be a TB2 shot down 70 km inside Russia in Kursk, and speculated to have participated in the attack on Bryansk (no missiles):

    You may want to check out what's happening up north here. 
  21. Like
    acrashb reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A slightly relevant personal experience:
    The assembly plant where I work used to get a large number of the HDPE mouldings we attach to the units from one factory. But then it burned down. All of it. It took three months before we started getting any more mouldings that hadn't already been en route. That's simple plastic mouldings. Imagine how long it would take to find a supplier for precision or high tech parts and get them ramped up to standards and volume for large war-scale production.
  22. Like
    acrashb reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    and a ton of their high-tech workers are fleeing to better pastures.....
  23. Like
    acrashb reacted to Bearstronaut in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The LT I yelled at went and told the range OIC what I said to him after he got off the range. The OIC pulled me aside later and said “you were right to correct 1LT Snuffy but maybe next time use a bit more tact, SGT.” 
  24. Like
    acrashb got a reaction from Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The range officer can chew on anyone   And that saves lives.
  25. Like
    acrashb reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Su-25 and I kind of doubt its ukrainian, is possible but unlikely.
    Both are throwing flares, afraid of IR missiles, which over ukrainian soil the Ukr jet doesnt have to worry about if it were on the tail of the rus plane. 
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