Brink of civil war in Lebanon

[hellfish]

From SCG Incident Report:

LINE 1 - TIME OF REPORT: 21 NOV, 0950hrs (EST Local) 1450hrs (GMT)

LINE 2 - UNIT / ORGANIZATION: Lebanese Phalange Party Leadership (anti-Syrian Parliamentary Majority in Lebanon)

LINE 3 - TYPE OF INCIDENT: Assassination

LINE 4 - TIME OF INCIDENT: 1300 GMT 21 NOV 2006

LINE 5 - LOCATION: Jdeideh, a Christian neighborhood on the northern edge of Beirut, Lebanon

LINE 6 - CASUALTIES: 1 killed

LINE 7 - NARRATIVE: Prominent anti-Syrian Christian politician Pierre Gemayel was assassinated while standing outside of his vehicle in the Christian neighborhood of Jdeideh, a suburb on the northern edge of Beirut on Tuesday. He was rushed to a nearby hospital where he was pronounced dead.

LINE 8 - ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS: Saad Hariri, leader of the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority, broke off a televised news conference after hearing that Gemayel had been shot.

LINE 9 - ASSESSMENT: Gemayel, the minister of industry and son of former President Amin Gemayel, was a supporter of the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority, which is locked in a power struggle with pro-Syrian factions led by Hezbollah. He was named for his grandfather, who founded the Phalange Party in 1936 to exert Christian power in Lebanon. It dominated Christian politics for decades after Lebanon's independence from France in 1943. During the civil war, the Phalange had the largest Christian militia that fought Muslim forces and Palestinian guerrillas. The death of the senior Pierre Gemayel in 1983, the shrinking Christian community and internal dissent have seriously weakened the party, which could not get its own leader elected to parliament in 2000. Amin Gemayel served as Lebanon's president from 1982 to 1988. He was elected by parliament after the assassination of his brother, Bashir, who was chosen president but was killed a few days before he was to take office.

LINE 10 - ADVISORY: SCG advises clients to avoid unnecessary travel to the affected area.

LINE 11 - REPORT NUMBER: OCONUS LEB 21112006- 0024

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So you've got six pro-Syrian Hezballah ministers resigned and one anti-Syrian minister assasinated and somethink like 8000 UN troops in country.

Sounds like CMSF may have to bump the Marines from the first module in favor of Euro forces.

[Abbott]

Yeah, this is not good.

[Speedy]

Syrian assasination squads still doing business I see.

[Abbott]

Originally posted by Speedy:

Syrian assasination squads still doing business I see.

Yeah and if you get a chance to see the vehicle note the small arms impact pattern. The guy was well trained.

[Peter Cairns]

I'd say Hezbollah, rather than the syrians, as they don't want a strong Lebonese government that can disarm them. The Syrians got there fingers burnt badly with the last assasination.

Oh course the conspiracy theorists will have a field day and probably point the finger at both Israel and the CIA, in an attempt too destablise the Lebanon and create a civil war as a way to take out Hezbollah.

I don't buy at as it's just too high risk and difficult to pull off in a place like Beruit. So i am for Hezbollah and it might even just have been some bunch of jerks who saw a target and thought he's one of them.

It can happen in these situations, sort of the cock up theory of history.

Peter.

[Peter Cairns]

Looked at the BBC website that has pictures on it.

The first have a tight grouping on the drivers window, and the second what looks like where the bulllets stopped on the passenger door.

Given the angle that suggest that the killer was either standing within 10ft, in which case it's hardly great marksmenship, or a lot further away on the first or second floor, in which case it's good shooting with an automatic weapon.

BBC News.

Peter.

[Abbott]

Well Peter from what I have been able to gather the guy first rammed the man's vehicle, then he calmly stepped out and and executed the guy. If that is how it happened (or not) the fact that the man is dead clearly speaks for itself. Any operation of that nature requires more then being able to use small arms effectively. If you don't think that it takes excellent training from any range, I don't know what to tell you.

[ November 21, 2006, 02:17 PM: Message edited by: Abbott ]

[Peter Cairns]

Abbott,

Greece.

Italy.

You don't need to be Special Forces or Secret Service to pull off this type of attack, it's well within the capability of most terrorist groups.

Peter.

[Abbott]

Originally posted by Peter Cairns:

Abbott,

Greece.

Italy.

You don't need to be Special Forces or Secret Service to pull off this type of attack, it's well within the capability of most terrorist groups.

Peter.

Well Peter you don't have to be Special Forces or Secret Police to be well trained, many terrorists train regularly. As a matter of fact I personally know two men who began their training in Lebanon at the ages of 12 and 13. And to top it off they were both Americans.

[Peter Cairns]

Abbott,

I've know doubt your right, I am just saying that it doesn't make sense for the Syrians, and Hezbollah seems to have more reason and easily the capability.

In addition given the fragmentation in lebanon, the order doesn't have to have come from the top. What we see from Iraq is that where as they all have similar motives there really is no one in control.

Of course given the Italy case I mentioned, I suppose we could look at Iran, If it takes the heat off them, and Syria carries the can, They could at least have known about it.

Peter.

[akd]

Originally posted by Abbott:

Well Peter from what I have been able to gather the guy first rammed the man's vehicle, then he calmly stepped out and and executed the guy. If that is how it happened (or not) the fact that the man is dead clearly speaks for itself. Any operation of that nature requires more then being able to use small arms effectively. If you don't think that it takes excellent training from any range, I don't know what to tell you.

The Hariri assasination and others were executed with sophisticated bombs. This is on a much lower order.

WARNING GRAPHIC

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanese Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, an outspoken critic of Syria, was assassinated near Beirut on Tuesday, security sources said. Blood is seen in a car from Lebanon's Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel's convoy, near Beirut, November 21, 2006. REUTERS/Georges Maroun

Bikfaya, LEBANON: Lebanese soldiers secure an area in the Christian mountain town of Bikfaya, northeast of Beirut, after supporters of assassinated Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel destroyed cars of supportres of the Syrian Nationalist Social Party, 21 November 2006. Gemayel, 34, was gunned down in a Beirut suburb, the latest victim in a spate of attacks on anti-Syrian politicians, and angry voices quickly blamed Damascus. AFP PHOTO/ANWAR AMRO

[ November 21, 2006, 03:01 PM: Message edited by: akd ]

[Abbott]

The Hariri assasination and others were executed with sophisticated bombs. This is on a much lower order.

I am not sure what you're point is here AKD . But if by "much lower order" you mean it was easy for anyone to accomplish, I strongly disagree.

[rudel.dietrich]

You are seeing Syrian special forces in action.

I am almost positive this was a hit carried out by them.

Most likely by members of the Al-Sa'iqa regiment carried out the attack.

[akd]

Originally posted by Abbott:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> The Hariri assasination and others were executed with sophisticated bombs. This is on a much lower order.

I am not sure what you're point is here AKD . But if by "much lower order" you mean it was easy for anyone to accomplish, I strongly disagree. </font>

[Abbott]

Originally posted by akd:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Abbott:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> The Hariri assasination and others were executed with sophisticated bombs. This is on a much lower order.

I am not sure what you're point is here AKD . But if by "much lower order" you mean it was easy for anyone to accomplish, I strongly disagree. </font>

[akd]

Originally posted by Abbott:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by akd:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Abbott:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> The Hariri assasination and others were executed with sophisticated bombs. This is on a much lower order.

I am not sure what you're point is here AKD . But if by "much lower order" you mean it was easy for anyone to accomplish, I strongly disagree. </font>

[Abbott]

Originally posted by akd:

No way.

LOL, talking apples and oranges. Nowhere have I seen a semi-automatic weapon mentioned, other then by yourself. I guess you think the guy got up that morning and thought heh, I am going to go out and kill sumfink. Then in Hollywood fashion sprayed em dead, yep real low tech. No problem, enjoy.

[Sixxkiller]

This doesnt seem to be a clean professional type hit. I dont think this was a Syrian hit, even though if it was Hezbollah, then the Syrians may have had a hand in the planning or the training of the group that did.

[Imperial Grunt]

"Sounds like CMSF may have to bump the Marines from the first module in favor of Euro forces. [smile]"

And do what with them? The UN does not let them do much. The Euro forces in Afghanistan seem to be having some friction getting along (Germans refusing to fly at night, etc...) and they are operating more as a miltary combat force there than they have in any time since WWII. NATO calls for reinforcements fell on deaf ears.

Regarding the hit, in my opinion it was not Hezbollah but Syrian SF or Mukhabarat operatives. This is my reasoning:

1) A well executed vehicle stop was used which takes planning and practise. It was not a driveby shooting.

2) Hit was done in a Christian neighborhood where target probably felt a degree of safety and familarity.

3) Team did the hit and got away quickly and completely.

4) Use of silenced automatic weapons, something that is not used alot by Hezbollah and other Islamic miltias.

5) Dumping 10 rounds is single burst at point blank range does the job fast through a glass window. Going for a single shot or double tap to the head through glass is not a sure thing. So at that range, blast away. After the glass is gone and significant damage to the target is done, fire a single round to the target's head and then go. Even a professional sniper cannot guarentee a killing headshot through glass without multiple rounds being fired.

It would be interesting to see what kind of automatic weapon was used if that is every discovered/revealed. A hit like this is actually much more sophisticated than the car bomb routine in my opinion. The bomb is amateur level assassination technique compared to this.

All of this is just my take on the event from a long way away though. Just my hunch.

[C'Rogers]

I guess you think the guy got up that morning and thought heh, I am going to go out and kill sumfink.

Let's not put words in his mouth now, that is one quick way to bring a discussion down. I think you are seriously misrepresenting his argument.

[akd]

Originally posted by Abbott:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by akd:

No way.

LOL, talking apples and oranges. Nowhere have I seen a semi-automatic weapon mentioned, other then by yourself. </font>

[Sixxkiller]

Timed bombings are quite a bit more sophisticated than what this was. So much more to take into account to successfully hit the correct target.

[Battlefront.com]

You guys are all arguing about nothing. Kinda like arguing someone's dad is tougher than someone else's dad. It is clear that this latest assassination was extremely well planned and well executed. As Imperial Grunt outlined, it was also extremely brazen. Who cares which took more nerd power than the other? If I was in charge of the operations and I thought I could do it up close and personal, therefore ensuring my team hit the target, you bet I'd opt for an attack like today vs. a bomb attack. It wouldn't bother me a bit that some guys on a wargame forum would find it "unsophisticated".

The facts are facts. Someone wanted this guy dead and acheived that goal, including getting away clean. It was highly sophisticated and not amateurish in any way, shape, or form. It is also the type of assissination that is inline with dedicated professional killers, not militant religious fanatics. Whether it was actual Syrian operatives or Hezbollah's own elite killers TRAINED by the Syrians, we can't say which at the moment. But there is no way dout in my mind that Syria wasn't directly or indirectly involved in this. They want back into Lebanon and the only way in is with a Hezbollah take over of the government. Plain and simple.

Steve

[John Kettler]

The shot pattern on that window goes way beyond spray and pray. Whatever person or persons did the shooting knew how to handle the weapon or weapons used. I see no evidence that shots hit anywhere other than the window, and save for a couple of strays, the pattern is very tight and controlled, systematically blasting the space occupied by the person behind the window.

Any word yet on the weapons used? I agree that the hit, based on what I've seen at least, to include a segment on local news, was well planned and professionally executed. Further, I concur that Syria's got blood on its hands. Again! Maybe it's time for another set of massive protests?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Imperial Grunt]

Originally posted by John Kettler:

The shot pattern on that window goes way beyond spray and pray. Whatever person or persons did the shooting knew how to handle the weapon or weapons used. I see no evidence that shots hit anywhere other than the window, and save for a couple of strays, the pattern is very tight and controlled, systematically blasting the space occupied by the person behind the window.

Any word yet on the weapons used? I agree that the hit, based on what I've seen at least, to include a segment on local news, was well planned and professionally executed. Further, I concur that Syria's got blood on its hands. Again! Maybe it's time for another set of massive protests?

Regards,

John Kettler

I think the UN should write President Bashar al-Asad a really angry letter. More angry than the last angry letter.