How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sross112]

I don't think I've seen it on here but if it was already pointed out I apologize. 

It appears that the 44th Artillery Brigade is one of the units that has received and is employing the M777s. There are a couple articles/videos on their facebook page that talk about them being deployed already. They say that the systems are well liked as they are light, easy to use and very accurate. Hopefully they will make a difference for the UA.

[Battlefront.com]

It seems Ukraine is starting to get ready for a significant push to clear the west bank of the Dnepr.  Vitaly Kim broadcast a message into Kherson to be patient and that help is coming soon.  Also there's more posters getting put up by resistance warning collaborators that the tide will turn so don't get comfortable.  RUMINT so far, but obviously at some point Ukraine will push back in that area.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's report of May 15th.  More insights into the desperate activity to get more men into depleted units:

Quote

Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that approximately 2,500 Russian reservists are training in Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts to reinforce Russian offensive operations in Ukraine. That number of reservists is unlikely to generate enough force to replenish Russian units that have reportedly lost up to 20 percent of staffing in some areas—to say nothing of the battalion tactical group that was largely destroyed recently while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River.[2] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.[3] Russian forces also deployed new conscripts from occupied settlements in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to maintain an offensive around Kharkiv City, likely due to the lack of Russian reserves.[4]

Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower.[5] Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crewmembers.[6] Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat.

 

[hm_stanley]

war is hard..

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

From ISW's report of May 15th.  More insights into the desperate activity to get more men into depleted units:

 

 

[Kinophile]

ISW:

Quote

• The Battle of Mariupol will, apparently and surprisingly, continue.

Love their one-eyebrow-raised style.

[dan/california]

Trying to hold the line to the north east of Kupiansk with DPR/LPR conscripts that were rounded up and shoved in the back of a truck a whole two days ago seems like a huge red flag that the Russians should just quit and go home. Because those poor bleeps are going to do one of two things, run like bleep, or surrender at the first airburst.

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting.  Ben Hodges, who has assessed things pretty well for most of the war, is speculating that the Russians are at least contemplating that they might have no choice but to "capitulate" (sue for peace).  It's not based on much more than a statement by the Russian Ambassador to the United States.

I think what he's keying off of is something like this:

"As part of our Special Military action our glorious Russian forces continue to purge Ukraine of Nazis and secure territory.  We will not surrender".

If you think you're doing such a hot job, why are you talking about surrender?

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

6 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

First time that I have heard of this South Korean sailor but I'm glad he's alive.

Also nice to see the CZ 805 BREN making its way into the right hands.

Likewise. And odd coincidence on the timing of the post, the MH17 reference earlier had me thinking of KAL007...

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a quick summary of what I've been able to figure out about the various bridging attempts.  There are five different locations identified so far:

Serebryanka - May 2nd the Russians got over the river and moved westward and northwestward with small forces.  On May 4th the bridge was destroyed and not reestablished, but possibly they tried to establish another bridge site May 5th.  This wasn't successful (before bridging started, I think) and could have prompted them to try Bilohorivka instead.  The two locations are very close to each other and are connected by the same trail system on the Russian side.

Shypylivka - May 5th bridge was partially established, but was hit with artillery before completed.  Several trucks with pontoon sections were knocked out.  Looks like maybe 3 tugs were destroyed.

Dronivka - not sure of timing as pictures are constantly stuck in with Bilohrivka descriptions.  Bridge was supposed to cross two narrow sections of river using a small island to shorten the span.  First portion was knocked out while being deployed.  Possibly 3 tugs and 3 BMPs knocked out (including a rare BMP-1 variant)  Three trucks with pontoon sections also knocked out.  A tracked engineer crane and tracked cargo carrier also knocked out.  Most vehicles have O markings, one BMP hastily painted Zs.

Bilohorivka - May 8th established first bridge (Yellow) established and some vehicles moved over to Ukraine side before getting knocked out.  May 9th established second bridge (Red) using some sections from Yellow, destroyed the same day but after a large quantity (~70 vehicles) moved over to Ukraine side.  The forces were waiting before moving out, discovered, and slaughtered by artillery.  May 12th established third bridge (Blue), to rescue whatever was left that couldn't swim (tanks and trucks).  Vehicles that could swim did so near Blue while it was being constructed.  The bridge was completed, but destroyed before much could be done with it.  Forces remaining on Ukraine side abandoned when clear they couldn't get back to friendly side.  At least 8 tanks were driven into the river and abandoned as they weren't able to swim (probably muddy bottom).  Some estimates are 100 vehicles knocked out or abandoned in total.

Pryvillya - May 11th or 12th.  Not much is known to me about this, but it does seem Russians were able to establish a bridge.  I've picked a likely place for it based on the description of NW of the town.  Fighting was reported on May 12, but as of May 14 there doesn't seem to be any Russians there.

Summary... they tried to bridge in at least 6 different places within a week's time.  1 site didn't make it to bridging stage, 2 sites were knocked out before bridges established.  1 site was successful until being knocked out.  And then we have 1 site, Bilohorivka, that was bridged 3 times before abandoned.  In total Russia lost the equivalent of enough pontoon sections to bridge the river 7 times and lost most of the trucks that transported the pontoons.  They also lost at least 6 tugs.  Personnel losses were in the hundreds for sure, but not known how many swam back to the Russian side.

This was a huge effort.  It is likely that 3 BTGs were rendered combat ineffective by the end of the attempts with one likely being wiped out nearly completely.

Interesting note... the heavy forest on the Russian side did not offer many good choices for bridging.  In at least 2 of the sites followed power line lanes, the rest used existing roads which appear to have used ferries to cross at one time or another.

 

 

[Taranis]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a quick summary of what I've been able to figure out about the various bridging attempts.  There are four different locations identified so far:

Serebryanka - May 2nd the Russians got over the river and moved westward and northwestward with small forces.  On May 4th the bridge was destroyed and not reestablished, but possibly they tried to establish another bridge site May 5th.  This wasn't successful (before bridging started, I think) and could have prompted them to try Bilohorivka instead.  The two locations are very close to each other and are connected by the same trail system on the Russian side.

Shypylivka - May 5th bridge was partially established, but was hit with artillery before completed.  Several trucks with pontoon sections were knocked out.  Looks like maybe 3 tugs were destroyed.

Dronivka - not sure of timing as pictures are constantly stuck in with Bilohrivka descriptions.  Bridge was supposed to cross two narrow sections of river using a small island to shorten the span.  First portion was knocked out while being deployed.  Possibly 3 tugs and 3 BMPs knocked out (including a rare BMP-1 variant)  Three trucks with pontoon sections also knocked out.  A tracked engineer crane and tracked cargo carrier also knocked out.  Most vehicles have O markings, one BMP hastily painted Zs.

Bilohorivka - May 8th established first bridge (Yellow) established and some vehicles moved over to Ukraine side before getting knocked out.  May 9th established second bridge (Red) using some sections from Yellow, destroyed the same day but after a large quantity (~70 vehicles) moved over to Ukraine side.  The forces were waiting before moving out, discovered, and slaughtered by artillery.  May 12th established third bridge (Blue), to rescue whatever was left that couldn't swim (tanks and trucks).  Vehicles that could swim did so near Blue while it was being constructed.  The bridge was completed, but destroyed before much could be done with it.  Forces remaining on Ukraine side abandoned when clear they couldn't get back to friendly side.  At least 8 tanks were driven into the river and abandoned as they weren't able to swim (probably muddy bottom).  Some estimates are 100 vehicles knocked out or abandoned in total.

Pryvillya - May 11th or 12th.  Not much is known to me about this, but it does seem Russians were able to establish a bridge.  I've picked a likely place for it based on the description of NW of the town.  Fighting was reported on May 12, but as of May 14 there doesn't seem to be any Russians there.

Summary... they tried to bridge in at least 6 different places within a week's time.  1 site didn't make it to bridging stage, 2 sites were knocked out before bridges established.  1 site was successful until being knocked out.  And then we have 1 site, Bilohorivka, that was bridged 3 times before abandoned.  In total Russia lost the equivalent of enough pontoon sections to bridge the river 7 times and lost most of the trucks that transported the pontoons.  They also lost at least 6 tugs.  Personnel losses were in the hundreds for sure, but not known how many swam back to the Russian side.

This was a huge effort.  It is likely that 3 BTGs were rendered combat ineffective by the end of the attempts with one likely being wiped out nearly completely.

Interesting note... the heavy forest on the Russian side did not offer many good choices for bridging.  In at least 2 of the sites followed power line lanes, the rest used existing roads which appear to have used ferries to cross at one time or another.

 

 

Because we can't like yout post, thank you Steve for this great summary

[Huba]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a quick summary of what I've been able to figure out about the various bridging attempts.  There are four different locations identified so far:

Serebryanka - May 2nd the Russians got over the river and moved westward and northwestward with small forces.  On May 4th the bridge was destroyed and not reestablished, but possibly they tried to establish another bridge site May 5th.  This wasn't successful (before bridging started, I think) and could have prompted them to try Bilohorivka instead.  The two locations are very close to each other and are connected by the same trail system on the Russian side.

Shypylivka - May 5th bridge was partially established, but was hit with artillery before completed.  Several trucks with pontoon sections were knocked out.  Looks like maybe 3 tugs were destroyed.

Dronivka - not sure of timing as pictures are constantly stuck in with Bilohrivka descriptions.  Bridge was supposed to cross two narrow sections of river using a small island to shorten the span.  First portion was knocked out while being deployed.  Possibly 3 tugs and 3 BMPs knocked out (including a rare BMP-1 variant)  Three trucks with pontoon sections also knocked out.  A tracked engineer crane and tracked cargo carrier also knocked out.  Most vehicles have O markings, one BMP hastily painted Zs.

Bilohorivka - May 8th established first bridge (Yellow) established and some vehicles moved over to Ukraine side before getting knocked out.  May 9th established second bridge (Red) using some sections from Yellow, destroyed the same day but after a large quantity (~70 vehicles) moved over to Ukraine side.  The forces were waiting before moving out, discovered, and slaughtered by artillery.  May 12th established third bridge (Blue), to rescue whatever was left that couldn't swim (tanks and trucks).  Vehicles that could swim did so near Blue while it was being constructed.  The bridge was completed, but destroyed before much could be done with it.  Forces remaining on Ukraine side abandoned when clear they couldn't get back to friendly side.  At least 8 tanks were driven into the river and abandoned as they weren't able to swim (probably muddy bottom).  Some estimates are 100 vehicles knocked out or abandoned in total.

Pryvillya - May 11th or 12th.  Not much is known to me about this, but it does seem Russians were able to establish a bridge.  I've picked a likely place for it based on the description of NW of the town.  Fighting was reported on May 12, but as of May 14 there doesn't seem to be any Russians there.

Summary... they tried to bridge in at least 6 different places within a week's time.  1 site didn't make it to bridging stage, 2 sites were knocked out before bridges established.  1 site was successful until being knocked out.  And then we have 1 site, Bilohorivka, that was bridged 3 times before abandoned.  In total Russia lost the equivalent of enough pontoon sections to bridge the river 7 times and lost most of the trucks that transported the pontoons.  They also lost at least 6 tugs.  Personnel losses were in the hundreds for sure, but not known how many swam back to the Russian side.

This was a huge effort.  It is likely that 3 BTGs were rendered combat ineffective by the end of the attempts with one likely being wiped out nearly completely.

Interesting note... the heavy forest on the Russian side did not offer many good choices for bridging.  In at least 2 of the sites followed power line lanes, the rest used existing roads which appear to have used ferries to cross at one time or another.

 

 

So I was thinking how the situation will turn out when Ukraine will take to offensive and will have to cross the river in opposite direction? They will face the same terrain, however it might be easier cause:

- the initial infantry infiltration can have much more decisive effect because of the aforementioned forests. With terrain like this, moving heavy equipment north would probably be done only after infantry battle is won decisively 

- it is much easier to approach the river from the south and thanks to this, pick less obvious crossing point - on the flipside, it is near to impossible to move the vehicles after crossing, except by few aforementioned roads.

- as long as Ukraine holds Lyman, the most difficult part, i.e. holding to newly established bridgehead is already taken care of. Setting up crossing would probably be done only after control of the river shore was established by forces moving from the town.

BTW, I wonder how is Lyman supported after all the permanent bridges were blown - some pontoon bridge is probably in place already. The same goes for Severodonetsk region (with less chance of significant counterattacks from UA side in foreseeable future ). 
I recall Russian sources claiming that they destroyed some UA pontoon bridges west of Izium a bit of time ago, and that one of these bridges was build to be submerged, and therefore not visible from the air - does anybody have an idea how would they achieve this with pontoon bridge?

Edited May 16, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Gossip (for now), but a gamechanging development if proven true:

 

[Offshoot]

Talking of blowing bridges.
Translated from the Telegram page:
Details: The 8th Special Forces Regiment, together with the NGU and the 15th Main Directorate of the UVKR SBU, in order to stop the offensive of the Russian armed forces in the direction of the cities of Severodonetsk and the city of Lisichansk, Lugansk region, destroyed the railway bridges captured by the enemy in the key communication between the city of Rubizhne and the city Severodonetsk, Luhansk region.
 

 

[Huba]

 

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

BTW, I wonder how is Lyman supported after all the permanent bridges were blown - some pontoon bridge is probably in place already. The same goes for Severodonetsk region (with less chance of significant counterattacks from UA side in foreseeable future ). 

Not all of the bridges have been dropped - these were reported as still up about a fortnight ago at the time when a stack of other bridges were reported as being dropped:

Intact Bridges.kmz

[Huba]

30 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Not all of the bridges have been dropped - these were reported as still up about a fortnight ago at the time when a stack of other bridges were reported as being dropped:

Intact Bridges.kmz 701 B · 0 downloads

Were they? I thought that both were dropped (railway one with a train on it, reportedly by Russian Air Force). Any case the crossing on this nearby dam has to still be up, I forgot about this one.

Edit: here's the info on the railway bridge @Combatintman:

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Huba

[Combatintman]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Were they? I thought that both were dropped (railway one with a train on it, reportedly by Russian Air Force). Any case the crossing on this nearby dam has to still be up, I forgot about this one.

You'll have to show me the report about the RuAF attacks then.  I admit I was away for a week and wasn't tracking it closely in my absence but nothing stood out in terms of reporting that suggested the bridges had been subsequently dropped when I spent about four hours doing catch up reading on this thread.

[Haiduk]

16 hours ago, akd said:

Larger version:

 

Last one right through open hatch.

All, what remained...

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I’m going to play Devil’s Advocate here, as a user of proprietary DOD hardware and software, there is absolutely something to be said for the simplicity and usability of using COTS systems. A lot of soldiers I’ve talked to would agree. It certainly seems to work for Ukrainians.

The key thing here is Russia claimed this is "Research and development works were carried out by dozens of Russian defense enterprises". I bet huge budget was stolen on this "unparalleled breakthrough equipment", which indeed turned out old tablet. The same like with Russian R-187 Azart radio. it's claimed "completely Russian forward development", but actually, commercial structure, close to MoD bought cheap Chineese solution, but for Russian army theese radios (in other box and with Azart name) were sold in 5 times more cost. 

Russians say Azart quite good radio, but enough complicate for low-educated soldier. The same thing with Strelets complex. I read on Russian forums, this equipment uses properly only in spetsnaz, recon units and in some "elite" ground forces units. In most of other this equipment just was stored because commanders afraid incompetent not enough educated soldiers can break high-priced devices, so they would be f...d by their higher military chiefs and different committees.   

[akd]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

ISW:

Love their one-eyebrow-raised style.

Azovstal, May 16, 2022.

Edited May 16, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

Firmly in the rumor category, but at least some indication Putin might not be done digging yet. 

Usual reservists gathering, I think. Without official declaration of war, they havn't juridiacal right to mobilize anyone at the war. All what they can do - to call reservists and brainwosh them about "enemy at rhe gate! We must fight with nazi, puppets of US" and offer big salary for participation. Of course they can find people, which will agree to sign contracts or even to go at war as volunteers in composition of some units, which sponsored by different oligarchs like Maloffev or around-Kremlin patriotic organizations.

[akd]

Captured documents with 1st Guards Tank Army losses through March 15:

 

[Cederic]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  Ben Hodges, who has assessed things pretty well for most of the war, is speculating that the Russians are at least contemplating that they might have no choice but to "capitulate" (sue for peace).  It's not based on much more than a statement by the Russian Ambassador to the United States.

I think what he's keying off of is something like this:

"As part of our Special Military action our glorious Russian forces continue to purge Ukraine of Nazis and secure territory.  We will not surrender".

If you think you're doing such a hot job, why are you talking about surrender?

Steve

That wording is amusing. I'm not sure even Ukraine are demanding the surrender of Moscow. They'll settle for their own country, the return of forcibly transported citizens and agreement to hand over war crime suspects.

[Cederic]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

one of these bridges was build to be submerged, and therefore not visible from the air - does anybody have an idea how would they achieve this with pontoon bridge?

Not sure about pontoons, but submerged bridges were used by Soviet forces in WW2  - see https://www.lonesentry.com/articles/ttt07/submerged-bridge.html for a reference that includes how quickly they can be constructed.

It may be even easier for the Donets, if it's shallow enough to just sink pre-fabricated sections to the river bed that provide enough clearance to keep vehicles from flooding and provide the firm base needed to avoid sticking in the river mud.

I'll defer to former army engineers on whether intentionally flooding a pontoon section (or the whole bridge, after constructing it) would be a very quick and easy way to achieve that.

[Taranis]

 

"Ukrainian patrol in a village recaptured from Russian forces in the north of Kharkiv, Sunday May 15, 2022. MSTYSLAV CHERNOV / AP"

Quote

McDonald’s annonce se retirer entièrement de Russie
Le groupe américain de la restauration rapide McDonald’s, qui avait fermé ses enseignes en Russie au début de mars, a annoncé aujourd’hui se retirer du pays et vendre toutes ses activités en réaction à l’invasion russe de l’Ukraine. « Nous sommes engagés envers notre communauté mondiale et devons rester inflexibles quant à nos valeurs », a déclaré le PDG du groupe Chris Kempczinski, cité dans un communiqué de l’entreprise. « Le respect de nos valeurs signifie que nous ne pouvons plus conserver les Arches [le logo de McDonald’s] » en Russie, a-t-il ajouté.

McDonald's announces complete withdrawal from Russia
The American fast food group McDonald's, which closed its stores in Russia at the beginning of March, announced today that it is withdrawing from the country and selling all its activities in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "We are committed to our global community and must remain adamant about our values," Group CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a company statement. "Respecting our values means we can no longer keep the Arches [McDonald's logo]" in Russia, he added.

Freedom fries?