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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thank you for that!  And when a river crossing starts badly, it usually ends badly.

When researching Soviet/Russian amphibious vehicle capabilities all of the factors you mentioned were discussed.  You can clearly see in the big Soviet/Russian exercises that they carefully choose well prepared crossing points.  That is not what happens in real life!

Two other problems commonly mentioned are maintenance and currents.  A poorly maintained vehicle is likely to sink and even a successfully floating one has limited abilities to fight currents.  The wider the river, the stronger the current, the less likely the vehicle will hit the exit point on the other side.  And as you say, it's not like a random spot is likely to work.

I have always viewed the swimming aspect to be more strategic in nature than tactical.  What Russia needs now is tactical crossing capabilities and that seems to be bridging.

Steve

Looking to this photo again, I have a feeling Russian light armor maybe crossed the river afloat - looks like both banks suitable for entrance and exit (see next photo), but something happened, when they exited on the bank. AT-mines? I don't see too much craters from arty fire, which could made this stockpile of scrapped metal. 

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And much more photos of this crossing to the hell

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Edited by Haiduk
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5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Looking to this photo again, I have a feeling Russian light armor maybe crossed the river afloat - looks like both banks suitable for entrance and exit (see next photo), but something happened, when they exited on the bank. AT-mines? I don't see too much craters from arty fire, which could made this stockpile of scrapped metal. 

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And much more photos of this crossing to the hell

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DPICM?

On that first one, I think I see small impacts.

Edited by The_Capt
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Here's an article I read a few weeks back but never got around to posting.  It describes Ukraine's pre-war struggles to properly fund and structure a true professional military.  You will note that many of the problems cited are similar to Russia's problems, except it seems Ukrainians want to serve.  The evidence for that is money was not amongst their top complaints.  Someone who is motivated to join only for money is not likely to put pay below all the other things.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukraines-military-strive-for-long-service-contracts/

Also while you're there, check out this very good article on Moldova as of a few days ago.  Nothing new, just good background information.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/transnistria-becomes-potential-hotspot-in-russias-war/

Steve

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Looking to this photo again, I have a feeling Russian light armor maybe crossed the river afloat - looks like both banks suitable for entrance and exit (see next photo), but something happened, when they exited on the bank. AT-mines? I don't see too much craters from arty fire, which could made this stockpile of scrapped metal. 

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And much more photos of this crossing to the hell

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looks like an entire BTG destroyed.  Wow.  unbelievable. 

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6 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

Impressive, so we need a SPAA system attached to what, every company, platoon?  The accountants will have a cardiac.

Whatever the solutions are, they will have to be very low level as it is unlikely that some sort of "umbrella defense" system will work.  This system is too big and costly for that.  It seems Rheinmetall is pitching this to fixed installations, such as oil refineries, ports, military bases, etc.

Steve

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29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Whatever the solutions are, they will have to be very low level as it is unlikely that some sort of "umbrella defense" system will work.  This system is too big and costly for that.  It seems Rheinmetall is pitching this to fixed installations, such as oil refineries, ports, military bases, etc.

Steve

Agreed, doubly so since for the armoured units you'd need to stick it on tracks, we could call it son of Gepard.  So what we need is a mobile, forward deployable, relatively low cost system with a wish-em-dead capability against multiple, small, potentially stealthy targets up to a few thousand feet and operable by the average infantrymen. Should be pretty straightforward.

Edited by cyrano01
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Very interesting read. What caught my attention is the statement that the border with Russia is not relevant anymore, as there are Russian forces concentrated in Belgorod, and RU artillery shells Ukraine from there. It sounds like preparing ground for over the border incursion to me.

 

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9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

NATO 155 airburst? Instead if the 152 digging huge holes in the ground? A few point detonation rounds for the bridge itself?

Based on how many of those vehicles caught fire and cooked off, I am betting HEAT and DPICM could do that, theoretically.  That or a whole bunch of Switchblade 600s.  Or an air strike, but again no crater.

Obstacle crossing is one of my areas of expertise and at some point I do want to jump into that conversation.

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41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Based on how many of those vehicles caught fire and cooked off, I am betting HEAT and DPICM could do that, theoretically.  That or a whole bunch of Switchblade 600s.  Or an air strike, but again no crater.

Obstacle crossing is one of my areas of expertise and at some point I do want to jump into that conversation.

A little known fact is that Poland produces 122m DPICM rounds, both rocket and tube type. Apart from their own stock, Ukrainians probably got at least some with Polish 2S1 and BM-21 deliveries.

Edit: Would it be possible that holes in pontoons were caused by falling cargo rounds bodies? I'm happy to be corrected on this, but I think DPICM would be too small to rip what seems to me more than 1x1m holes in the steel sheet, and any actual artillery round would just rip those to shreds while exploding (unless those were just duds?).

Edited by Huba
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So once again it looks like UKR is working to cut off RU forces instead of frontal assaults.   They are moving toward that Belgorod rail line NE of Kharkiv -- maybe they'd even make an incursion into Russia to cut it.  If they are in artillery range they can really cut it and keep it from being repaired via intermittent shelling of section that's been cut via arty or air or special forces behind the lines. 

The Izyum salient is in danger of being cut off at the same time that units that would protect the salient are being sent NE of Kharkiv.  And losing ~1 BTG per day.  What a mess!

And now they remove their big fancy theater commander.  Things are looking good for Ukraine so far this week.

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