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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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23 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

One German's point of view. Listening to it doesn't mean agreeing. I can see she influences a lot of European people. 

 

Mark my words, the Russians are paying that one, and her entire family.

 

Edited by dan/california
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2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Mark mt words, the Russians are payig that one, and her entire family.

Lots of Europeans share similar sentiments. At least I understand where the leaders of Turkey and Hungary come from. Sadly this war will continue for some time yet. 

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2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

One German's point of view. Listening to it doesn't mean agreeing. I can see she influences a lot of European people. 

 

She is a well-known pro-Russian disinformation source in Germany, part of the Russian effort to make the West "reduce escalation" and "encourage normalisation" which plays right in Russia's cards.

Nothing new, she has been doing this since Russia invaded Crimea.

In a sane world she would already rot behind bars for treason during wartime.

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2 hours ago, Carolus said:

She is a well-known pro-Russian disinformation source in Germany, part of the Russian effort to make the West "reduce escalation" and "encourage normalisation" which plays right in Russia's cards.

Nothing new, she has been doing this since Russia invaded Crimea.

In a sane world she would already rot behind bars for treason during wartime.

She is indeed well known for her pro-Russian position, basically since she was stationed in Moscow as a journalist 1987-1991. Do you have actual proof, though, that she is directly influenced or even paid by Russia? Unfortunately, people can and will talk nonsense without being paid by Russia...

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45 minutes ago, Butschi said:

basically since she was stationed in Moscow as a journalist 1987-1991.

Some variation of the Stockholm syndrome. You live for some time in a foreign place and forming a dialogue comes naturally. 

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12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are missing the key component of saying "Russia is running out of men" discussions.  Putin's government has clearly shown that they don't view mobilization as being viable, so if they run out of volunteers they are effectively out of men.  Because, obviously, they could mobilize a couple hundred thousand again if they absolutely had to.

Russia has definitely come to the end of their current supply of volunteers and came up with a new source.  But each source they went to cost them more than the previous one.  Costs matter, especially over time.

The North Koreans are no exception.  Russia is paying dearly by bartering away Russian assets in exchange for cannon fodder.

So yes, each time someone (like me) has said "Russia is running out of men" they are correct as it relates to the current pool.  Tapping a new pool confirms this.  The thing none of us know is when they will run out of new pools to tap into.  Seeing NK soldiers fighting for Russia indicates the manpower situation is very desperate for Russia.

I was refering to someone else😁 but Putin has shown he is quite hesitant towards it, because it does carry some risks towards both the economy and stability. Would it end him? I doubt it, but what does it matter if he can postpone it with little costs?

The wagner corpses are not getting paid, nor the mercenaries or D/LNR conscripts. The loss of low-educ/skill far eastern popularion can very well be compensated with chinese/NK workers in the future. Using the entire basket of society on the other hand damages far more, and leaves everyone exposed to grief. While a fairer approach, the cynical extermination of the weakest and poorest spheres of society carries less cost.

Maybe next year he pulls some chinese volunteers out of his hat, or NK expands its deployment. Maybe China will get some more natural riches for it in the years to come, it will not affect the war.

That russia is just starting to reaching the end of its volunteer base with these measures while Ukraine has long been past that means whatever arguments about rus economic/societal troubles more than double apply. I assume the russian population is less willing to suffer to the same scale, yet I assumed they would care about well more than half a million casualties and daily attacks, soaring inflation,.. and yet the zombies do little besides whine that their youtube and discord can be accessed only with vpn. The average russian family is not missing members, and that some rus village in nowhere is half empty moves the moscovite heart little.

Given the nonnegotiating position of putin, I would assume he is more than confident he is on the winning side in this attrition, what might change his mind is a shift in the support policies that go beyond status quo, running half a year+ behind the curve, to an actual winning plan that looks ahead, instead of responding to critical issues too late and too little. 

Edited by Kraft
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4 hours ago, Butschi said:

She is indeed well known for her pro-Russian position, basically since she was stationed in Moscow as a journalist 1987-1991. Do you have actual proof, though, that she is directly influenced or even paid by Russia? Unfortunately, people can and will talk nonsense without being paid by Russia...

Yes, but why do it for free when there's so much tasty Putin money available? We saw that some of those US 'influencers' were getting over $100k.  So if she's not getting paid she's really missing out.  Why shill for Putin's mass murdering land grab unless for profit?  

Love the hair, though.  Looks like a plastic helmet from a Flash Gordon sci fi show.  

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danfrodo, there are people who do it willingly and for free. I think it was Lenin who called them "useful idiots".

Hell, I've seen people praising and apologizing for the Soviet regime in my country even though we were about 45 years under soviet yoke. Some of those people are about my age or even younger - and I was 4 during the Velvet Revolution, so there is no rosy retrospection involved.

It's just that people are stupid.

Edited by Vlad
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17 minutes ago, Vlad said:

danfrodo, there are people who do it willingly and for free. I think it was Lenin who called them "useful idiots".

Hell, I've seen people praising and apologizing for the Soviet regime in my country even though we were about 45 years under soviet yoke. Some of those people are about my age or even younger - and I was 4 during the Velvet Revolution, so there is no rosy retrospection involved.

It's just that people are stupid.

yes, Vlad, thanks for that.  I agree.  I am just asking why someone with influence would do it for free when they could be stupid and rotten for profit.

I've seen some the Stalin nostalgia, it's insane.  

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I just found out that our most openly pro-Russian politician, Ľuboš Blaha, who is a member of Fico's SMER party and a member of Europarliament is......5 years older than me. That human bin full of toxic waste is only a bit older than me. And that's someone who publicly praises Putin, countries like Cuba or China and that motherf****r took down a photo of our former president (Zuzana Čaputová) down and put there a photo of Che Guevara instead.

He got evaluated I think by CIA as very dangerous due to his public outreach and the crap he says, from our country he was on the top spot of pro-Russian scum. No ties to Kremlin have been revealed so far, so everyone assumes he's in it for the ideology. Human stupidity is indeed limitless.

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36 minutes ago, Vlad said:

I just found out that our most openly pro-Russian politician, Ľuboš Blaha, who is a member of Fico's SMER party and a member of Europarliament is......5 years older than me. That human bin full of toxic waste is only a bit older than me. And that's someone who publicly praises Putin, countries like Cuba or China and that motherf****r took down a photo of our former president (Zuzana Čaputová) down and put there a photo of Che Guevara instead.

He got evaluated I think by CIA as very dangerous due to his public outreach and the crap he says, from our country he was on the top spot of pro-Russian scum. No ties to Kremlin have been revealed so far, so everyone assumes he's in it for the ideology. Human stupidity is indeed limitless.

Sadly there are a lot of people who will support Russia purely to suit their own ends. We see this a lot with anti American / anti western viewpoints that just love to trumpet and champion the Russian cause purely because it serves their purposes, even when it is entirely contradictory in nature. 

Examples include certain Palestinian supporters who cant get enough of Russia, despite the irony of supporting a nation in the process of annexing and occupying another... 

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I think this might be the first on video fragging we have seen. Sources contradict what was going on here, as another source claims this was a tanker that had fired on their own troops by mistake.

Either way, you know its going well when your soldiers are killing each other with full intention. 

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Just like one can hopscotch and jump rope their way through history to promote peace, the same can be said of the promotion of war. It's just a shame that Gabriele Krone-Schmalz can't see that she is solidifying someone else's policy of violence and aggression by pointing the finger elsewhere.

I get people's desire to avoid conflict, particularly in Europe, but I will never understand the sacrificing of those who truly yearn for democracy just to achieve "peace".

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3 hours ago, Kraft said:

Given the nonnegotiating position of putin, I would assume he is more than confident he is on the winning side in this attrition, what might change his mind is a shift in the support policies that go beyond status quo, running half a year+ behind the curve, to an actual winning plan that looks ahead, instead of responding to critical issues too late and too little. 

I would not assume he thinks he is on the winning side.  It could very well be that he has locked himself into a box with little choice.  Same result, but the difference being there is little room to push him to a different position.  I think this is where the allied move that is more boiling the frog rather than kicking in the door stems from.  The Russian edifice is likely rather fragile and when it does start to fall it will hopefully not look like this.

When Building Collapse GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

Edited by sburke
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1 hour ago, Vlad said:

danfrodo, there are people who do it willingly and for free. I think it was Lenin who called them "useful idiots".

 

Yes but the modern media ecosystem make it very easy for the various Russian intelligence services to support the most useful of the useful idiots without even telling them what is going on. 

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10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yes but the modern media ecosystem make it very easy for the various Russian intelligence services to support the most useful of the useful idiots without even telling them what is going on. 

And said ecosystem can help track them down. I remember a German or Dutch journalist compiling a list of people who were paid by some Russian oligarch or someone close to him - it included people from several European states. I think you could find Marine LePen from France, IIRC someone from Germany was there, we had several people from Slovakia (including our "I'm not a Nazi" neonazis in suits) and quite a few other people. Of course here was no will for any pushback for our wannabe Quislings, but that's another story.

 

Edit: it was about two years ago, give or take.

Edited by Vlad
Grammar is hard
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