How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

41 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I have to agree with and support LLF in this. I personally can’t stand either one and won’t be giving my vote to either one! I think Trump is a Tyrant and I’m terrified that Kamala will ignore the text of the U.S. Constitution even though she has to swear the save oath to “Preserve and Protect the Constitution from all enemies both foreign and Domestic” that all Federal employees have to swear. I am a Constitutional Originalist. Does that put me in in the MAGA camp also?

Hey Vet, we were asked by Steve to drop this particular topic, so we should probably keep doing that. You made your own view clear, maybe let's move along. (And yeah, it'll keep coming up anyway)

[Battlefront.com]

Yes, please!  With sugar on top and Vacations on the bottom.

It's quite annoying when the thread gets derailed.  It's double annoying when it gets derailed by the same thing just after getting back on track.

More cluster bombs, less political posturing that has nothing to do with this thread.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/

Surprise.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his military had received around 140,000 drones in 2023 and that Moscow planned to increase this number tenfold this year.

"Whoever reacts faster to demands on the battlefield wins," he told a meeting in St Petersburg about drone production.

****

Also, the shattered ruins of Vuhledar are falling into Russian hands under a blizzard of rocket fire (Nork Katyushas, I would guess). Little to no activity reported (by OSINT) up by Pokrovsk, looks like they threw it all in down here.

I think that's the last of the 2014 Ukrainian border forts, correct? So this 'Battle of the Frontiers' took Russia what, 2-1/2 years to complete?

'To the green fields beyond', now?

Edited 22 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, Vacillator said:

Location - the clue was in the name for @billbindc .

OSINT, FTW.

[dan/california]

Seems significant...maybe.

[dan/california]

 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Seems significant...maybe.

Wow, this is fascinating.  Plus the very stern language by German and UK foreign ministers at the UN, seems like might be significant.  For several years the west has been avoiding telling Putin that we have red lines, at least in public.  Now making very public statements.  very interesting.  

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

 

Flying WiFi... long discussed, first time I've seen evidence of either side using it.

The physics folks here might be able to chime in on detection.  My layman's perception is if this thing primarily receives signals and transmits straight up to a sat then it's not going to be all that easy to detect and/or triangulate electronically.  Thoughts?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Wow, this is fascinating.  Plus the very stern language by German and UK foreign ministers at the UN, seems like might be significant.  For several years the west has been avoiding telling Putin that we have red lines, at least in public.  Now making very public statements.  very interesting.  

Let's not forget the Danes.  I posted an interview with the PM and she was talking explicitly about NATO needing to have its own red lines.

Me thinks there's some coordination here!  Perhaps based on some intel that Russia might be signalling a specific means of escalation.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's not forget the Danes.  I posted an interview with the PM and she was talking explicitly about NATO needing to have its own red lines.

Me thinks there's some coordination here!  Perhaps based on some intel that Russia might be signalling a specific means of escalation.

Steve

So you are saying it's an anti-russia conspiracy by the decadent western criminal regimes?  

But seriously, I think you are probably right.  Western intel getting signals that Putin looking to put more pressure on the west via some sorts of skullduggery.  That's my bet.

[CHARLIE43]

Russia installs Starlink on Shahed drones: Defense Express named purpose of upgrade

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-installs-starlink-on-shahed-drones-1727284106.html

Not sure about triangulation but,

"Journalists showcased relevant photos showing the satellite antenna, which still bears a serial number that will help trace how the terminal ended up in Russia."

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So you are saying it's an anti-russia conspiracy by the decadent western criminal regimes?  

But seriously, I think you are probably right.  Western intel getting signals that Putin looking to put more pressure on the west via some sorts of skullduggery.  That's my bet.

High time to take the gloves off. We're already at war and escalation is inevitable. I know Europe is waiting for the US elections, which is understandable, but we must be prepared.

 

Edited 17 hours ago by Aragorn2002

[Carolus]

Regarding Starlink, apparently there is now so many internet satellites beaming straight down, that you can detect something moving and interrupting the beams for potential military purposes.

https://spacesecurity.wse.jhu.edu/2024/09/22/chinese-researchers-claim-to-detect-stealth-aircraft/

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Carolus

[Eug85]

2 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Russia installs Starlink on Shahed drones: Defense Express named purpose of upgrade

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-installs-starlink-on-shahed-drones-1727284106.html

Not sure about triangulation but,

"Journalists showcased relevant photos showing the satellite antenna, which still bears a serial number that will help trace how the terminal ended up in Russia."

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3963

Sergey Flesh says that these photos are from tests in Yelabuga and that Starlink is not yet being installed on drones in series

[Eug85]

Soldiers of the 23rd separate rifle battalion wrote an open letter to the commander of their battalion, where they demand his resignation and express their distrust in him. The worst thing about this is that they are forced to make it public in order to use public pressure to get the bad commander removed. Senior management did not respond to their dissatisfaction. This letter was posted on Twitter by one of the officers of this battalion.

Open letter

servicemen of the 23rd OSB
to the battalion commander

Kombat, we express our distrust and demand your resignation. You are unworthy of the position of commander of our battalion for the following reasons:

1. During the year of your position as the battalion commander, you were not personally in any combat position and in any place of residence of the personnel of the battalion entrusted to you. Your deputies were never interested in this either.

2. For 8 months, you ignore the numerous reports of deputy company commanders about the unsatisfactory moral and psychological condition of the soldiers of the rifle companies. The first of these reports was submitted back in January 2024.

3. Ignoring the reports of the deputy commanders of the rifle companies about the unsatisfactory morale and psychological state of the personnel in August and ignoring the message in the signal of the deputy commander of the 2nd company (that the creation of the Koryn-8 Observation Post does not make sense and can only lead to unjustified losses), you planned and ordered offensive actions on September 5, 2024. As a result of your disregard for the officers opinion and careless planning of the combat operation, the battalion suffered significant losses among its best fighters and practically lost combat capability.

4. You ignored the reports of the commanders of the rifle companies dated September 16 that the personnel do not have the strength to carry out combat tasks in the future and need long-term recovery, and issued an order to occupy new combat positions.

5. You, through the company commanders, conveyed threats to the personnel that, if they continued to insist on being withdrawn for reconstitution, the battalion would be disbanded, and the soldiers, sergeants and officers would be scattered among the various units.

6. During the 4 days of our stay in the rear villages of the Kharkiv region, you did not come to any location of personnel, for personal communication and to study the mood among your subordinates.

7. You require completely physically and mentally exhausted fighters to continue performing combat tasks. This can lead to unnecessary losses caused by fatigue.

8. By sending exhausted soldiers on combat duty, you risk losing not only people, but also the positions themselves, which in turn can affect the defense capability of the entire front in a certain area.

Based on all this, we express our distrust in you, and demand your resignation from the position of commander of the 23rd separate rifle battalion.

Our volunteer battalion in spirit and in fact deserves a better commander.

 

To date, 89 servicemen have given their consent to sign this open letter, both those who are currently in the battalion and those who have transferred to other units or retired from the Armed Forces in 2024

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

High time to take the gloves off

I know you are probably talking about Europe more specifically when saying West, but its kind of sad and funny, that closing in on 3 years and I still read stuff like this

Quote

25. September 2024

Pentagon has recommended giving white phosphorus shells to Ukraine, but White House keeps saying no.

Senior Pentagon officials have recommended that the U.S. provide Ukraine with white phosphorus munitions for use on the battlefield, but the White House has rejected the idea several times, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the planning

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/pentagon-wants-white-phosphorus-shells-ukraine-white-house-says-no-rcna172504

Edited 14 hours ago by Kraft

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/

Surprise.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his military had received around 140,000 drones in 2023 and that Moscow planned to increase this number tenfold this year.

"Whoever reacts faster to demands on the battlefield wins," he told a meeting in St Petersburg about drone production.

****

Also, the shattered ruins of Vuhledar are falling into Russian hands under a blizzard of rocket fire (Nork Katyushas, I would guess). Little to no activity reported (by OSINT) up by Pokrovsk, looks like they threw it all in down here.

I think that's the last of the 2014 Ukrainian border forts, correct? So this 'Battle of the Frontiers' took Russia what, 2-1/2 years to complete?

'To the green fields beyond', now?

More from Kastehelmi.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1838304397043925164.html

This position has reached its sell-by date. It has now extracted the necessary quantity of Russian blood and charred wrecks; hopefully at a 5x multiple of Ukrainian blood and charred wrecks.

The terrain in the area is flat, so there are no decisive natural obstacles which could help the defender. The main supply road is on FPV range.

Again, trying to grok the operational nature of terrain in a 'transparent' FPV world. What does that 'flat open countryside' behind do to the 1940s Russian army that must now advance across it, a day's walk/30 mins drive away from the Donetsk railhead?

I mean, it's not like the UA front is now unhinged and the road to Kramatorsk or Dnipro suddenly lies wide open to Vatutin.

[Carolus]

23 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I know you are probably talking about Europe more specifically when saying West, but its kind of sad and funny, that closing in on 3 years and I still read stuff like this

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/pentagon-wants-white-phosphorus-shells-ukraine-white-house-says-no-rcna172504

Aren't these mostly used for smoke generation? 

I wonder what the concern is, but I also don't think Ukraine has a great need. Germany provided a bunch of smoke shells as part of their 155mm deliveries (apparently not using phosphorus). I don't think they made any Ukrainian artillery battery jump up and down with thankfulness, but they probably have their use.

[Aragorn2002]

26 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I know you are probably talking about Europe more specifically when saying West, but its kind of sad and funny, that closing in on 3 years and I still read stuff like this

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/pentagon-wants-white-phosphorus-shells-ukraine-white-house-says-no-rcna172504

You're one of those people who don't appreciate the effort Europe has made and is still making to support Ukraine. Nothing sad or funny about  that. When I'm talking about gloves off, I'm in the first place talking about those endless provocations, threats and intimitations Vlad and his thugs are harassing Europe with.

Sad, although not in the least funny, is that hundreds of thousands of your countrymen are refusing to defend their homeland.

Edited 13 hours ago by Aragorn2002

[CHARLIE43]

1 hour ago, Eug85 said:

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3963

Sergey Flesh says that these photos are from tests in Yelabuga and that Starlink is not yet being installed on drones in series

Flash doesn't seem to question the validity of the photos or whether Starlink was indeed on these drones, but merely states that the reconnaissance capabilities. ie; cameras, modems etc have not yet been recovered. I don't see where he mentions Yelabuga either, although I don't know what Ebalugi refers to or means.

[Kraft]

17 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Sad, although not in the least funny, is that hundreds of thousands of your countrymen are refusing to defend their homeland.

You're dutch right?

Quote

Would you be willing to fight for your country: 36% of Dutch 16- to 29-year-olds said yes

Maybe dont risk confrontation with putin, saying yes in a survey does not equal going to fight when they've seen the videos of those who went being dismembered by endless drones.

https://www.economist.com/international/2024/04/17/would-you-really-die-for-your-country

 

Edited 13 hours ago by Kraft

[Kraft]

17 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I wonder what the concern is

My guess would be potential human rights abuses by firing them into civilian centers, atleast thats what the article hints at. Since this didnt happen with the millions of cluster shells, I dont see it make much sense though.

Quote

apparently not using phosphorus

Oh I did not know that

Edited 13 hours ago by Kraft

[Butschi]

23 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Sad and funny is that hundreds of thousands of your countrymen are refusing to defend their homeland.

Come on, now. I think we arm chair generals who have no real stakes in this whatsoever have no right to pass judgement on these people. There are people who generally like to live more than they like to die.

 

Edited 13 hours ago by Butschi

[panzermartin]

Gets to my nerves when I see armchair generals with back issues who never fired a rifle in their lives to demand some foreign young people to go and die so they can drink their morning coffee feeling victorious. If this is truly a West survival war you can all go and volunteer and not expect Ukrainians to do the dirty job for you.

Even chosen one Israel is recruiting african asylum seekers (a disgrace if you ask me). I see everyday many israelis fleeing to my country, buying homes etc, so yes, even in a favorable odds war most people don't really want to risk their own lives.

 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by panzermartin