How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap.  That's going to be interesting to see how the Russian economy handles that.  It's a huge increase on the very thing that (as just posted above) is causing the economy the most strain.  I'm not an economist, but I think this qualifies being put in the "not the best idea" category.

Steve

Perhaps the Russians expect to run out of Soviet stocks in 2025 and will start to finance the war out-of-pocket. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hey, OK, we all know that Russia invented the potato so they could invent vodka because they told us so. They have also told us they invented almost everything of any benefit to Humanity since the Stone Age because they said they did. How dare you question Russian claims on this?

In Polish the word for "to invent" is a cognate of the word "to find" and sounds very similar. This has spawned an entire genre of jokes how did the Russians "invent" a lot of useful devices - bicycles, cuckoo clocks, flushed toilets, radios etc. - in the basement of a house in Berlin. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

In Polish the word for "to invent" is a cognate of the word "to find" and sounds very similar. This has spawned an entire genre of jokes how did the Russians "invent" a lot of useful devices - bicycles, cuckoo clocks, flushed toilets, radios etc. - in the basement of a house in Berlin. 

In 1960 Peter Ustinov published a brilliant photessay called 'Ustinov's Diplomats' (my parents owned it). He is dressed the same in each photo but merely changes his expressions to reflect each of the national diplomats. A truly amazing actor!

Anyway, I can't find the specific photo, but the caption goes something like this:

RUSSIA: "May I remind you that Russia invented the German missile scientist, which America slavishly copied."

Edited 11 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

find

I suspect it depends on the prefix to give the meaning. Invent in Dutch is uitvinden. Vinden is to find something, uit as the prefix changes the cognitive meaning to invent. European languages are I think similar in this respect. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

I suspect it depends on the prefix to give the meaning. Invent in Dutch is uitvinden. Vinden is to find something, uit as the prefix changes the cognitive meaning to invent. European languages are I think similar in this respect. 

Indeed. In Polish also only the prefix differs,  znalezc (find) and wynalezc (invent).

 

[Silentkilarz]

BDA still ongoing but seems like its even worse for the Logitics guys than we thought.

[Lieutenant Ash]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/america-faces-its-biggest-war-threat-in-80-years-and-is-not-ready-for-it-commission-reports/ar-AA1r3Bi7?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=0ce979d6781a4ac894589b89428ec0a1&ei=95

Report on U.S. readiness (or lack of) on global threats.

[billbindc]

Folks should be very clear about this. Zelensky is going straight at the GOP ticket because the Ukrainian government has concluded that there is virtually no chance a Trump administration will not throw them to the wolves. There are 3.5 million Polish and 800,000 Ukrainian voters in the arc from Wisconsin to Pennsylvania and he is making sure they know the stakes. 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Lieutenant Ash said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/america-faces-its-biggest-war-threat-in-80-years-and-is-not-ready-for-it-commission-reports/ar-AA1r3Bi7?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=0ce979d6781a4ac894589b89428ec0a1&ei=95

Report on U.S. readiness (or lack of) on global threats.

What is BS on all this is that the same critics would have been barking like mad seals if the US were stockpiling for WW3 for the last 30 years. The Cold War ended and many thought that was it. We did not need to worry about major wars anymore. There were enough dumb schleps willing to go fight the small wars, and we did not need warstocks for those little dances in the dust. Defence spending as a portion of GDP was shaped by political realities of the 90s, 00s and 10s.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget

Since about 2014, we definitely should have started to shift. By 2017, it was damned clear we were entering a new game. But old habits die hard, and taxpayers are stingy as all hell. And the Defence spending we did have was not on peer-warfare capability or capacity. It was on big contracts aimed at creating jobs in places where the votes counted. All the while shifting manufacture to China and other parts of Asia to ensure better profit margins. 

So here we are in 2024 and the pundits are beating on drums "I told you so" but they really didn't. Nor do most academics, militaries, security agencies, or politicians really understand what this all means yet.  

Edited 6 hours ago by The_Capt

[A Canadian Cat]

On 9/22/2024 at 11:48 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I want to come back to this point sburke made after I stated that I didn't think the ammo strikes would impact the war itself.  To clarify, I meant the overall outcome.  I don't see these specific attacks having any specific impact on ending this war in whatever form it takes.

I get what you guys are saying but I would like to point out there is likely no silver bullet. This war will be won by an accumulation of effects over time that push one side to stop. This one action may not be *the* definitive action because there isn't going to be one. This action and others from the past few years and the more that are coming will add up to reach a point where this can end. Hopefully soon and in Ukraine's favour.

[A Canadian Cat]

On 9/23/2024 at 8:45 AM, Battlefront.com said:

On 9/23/2024 at 1:42 AM, Eug85 said:

I recently saw some videos of helicopters shooting down Ukrainian naval drones. So I think the Russians have come up with a tactic to combat these drones.

Certainly pulling their navy back to the coast of Russia (the real Russian coast!) provides a lot of time and opportunity to intercept surface attacks.  If there's a straight forward fix for something, Russia will eventually get around to do it.  But it usually takes a few disasters for it to happen

I love how you and @The_Capt and others are making this guys posts like like a fish out of water. 

Either pointing out the obvious more sensible alternative interpretation or showing actual status that show he's just full of it. Love it. I'm sure I'll get tired of it at some point but for now it's popcorn time. 

[mosuri]

16 hours ago, Butschi said:

 

First of all, generally I'd say that plot is meaningless without a source. For all we know it could be completely made up. I'll grant you that the author's cv suggests he might know what he is talking about. Let's, for the sake of the argument, take the plot at face value.

 

No need for to rely on the plot alone - data is publicly available.

Way too busy with work to do any number crunching myself now, but if anyone's interested knock yourself out here:

https://tilastot.tulli.fi/en/frontpage

https://tilastot.tulli.fi/en/tables/country-statistics

https://tilastot.tulli.fi/en/tables/statistics-on-logistics

Couldn't easily find an Excel that reports value both per category and per destination country, possibly it's somewhere as well, but would need to dig more than two minutes.

Edited 5 hours ago by mosuri
typo fix

[Eug85]

Review by Valegar of the captured Russian night vision device 1PN138 from the Ratnik kit. The device is surprisingly good quality, but the mount is poorly thought out.

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

If anyone wondered how did the Russians manage without mobilising more people, this is the answer.

It is hard to overstate how inflationary it is to dump that much money on very poor people. Every ruble, at least every ruble that is actually paid out, is going to be spent like it is on fire. And most of it will be spent on the stuff working class people buy, so the resulting inflation is going to be felt by those same people.

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In 1960 Peter Ustinov published a brilliant photessay called 'Ustinov's Diplomats' (my parents owned it). He is dressed the same in each photo but merely changes his expressions to reflect each of the national diplomats. A truly amazing actor!

Anyway, I can't find the specific photo, but the caption goes something like this:

RUSSIA: "May I remind you that Russia invented the German missile scientist, which America slavishly copied."

Funniest thing EVER!

2 hours ago, Silentkilarz said:

BDA still ongoing but seems like its even worse for the Logitics guys than we thought.

This extremely detailed BDA of the ammo dump strikes is worth your time. It makes it very clear that these facilities were not hit by one or two drones, but a large wave of them that were capable of penetrating concrete bunkers. This is brilliantly demonstrated by several probably empty bunkers with one neat hole in them. All the LARGE bases he goes over were at least an 85% total wipe, and they were huge. Furthermore they may have included facilities for reworking ammo. I am not kidding these things look like they were visited by a couple B-52s with a full load out of JDAMS. This represents a whole new level of deep strike for the Ukrainians. Even one operation a month like this is going to weigh pretty heavily on the scale if they can keep doing it. And we have previously discussed the cost of vastly more dispersal and other work arounds that now have to extend back past Moscow. 

But think about this level of destruction starting to rain down on oil refineries and chemical plants...

36 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat said:

I get what you guys are saying but I would like to point out there is likely no silver bullet. This war will be won by an accumulation of effects over time that push one side to stop. This one action may not be *the* definitive action because there isn't going to be one. This action and others from the past few years and the more that are coming will add up to reach a point where this can end. Hopefully soon and in Ukraine's favour.

No but a huge qualitative and quantitative leap Ukrainian deep strike capabilities is not nothing.

[Eug85]

Footage of the liberation of the Volchansk Aggregate Plant by a special unit of the GUR. This plant was captured at the beginning of the Russian offensive on Kupyansk and was held by a Russian unit that was surrounded for several months. Food and ammunition were delivered using drones.

[dan/california]

NEW PERUN!

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Reducing the RRR is intended to stimulate the banks to give out more loans. Basically an alternative to printing money. When the economy weakens, do you need cheaper credit or more robust banks? No idea. That's the question that they pay better money to answer to smarter people than I.

Oh, I'm sure it's MUCH worse than printing more money.

First, this gives banks an incentive to make loans that previously were deemed "too risky".  It's like telling the auto makers "you know all those safety things we require you to put in that you complained were expensive?  Well, if you want you can start leaving them out".

Second, this is decentralizing the risk at the state (Russian) level into the hands of individuals who are tasked with their own (corporation, personal compensation, status, etc.) selfish needs.  That's like a bus driver saying any random person can drive the bus for everybody, including someone who wants to take the bus in a different direction.

Third, this increases the chance of any one institution failing, but it also increases the chances that more than one will fail.  If the largest one fails then it probably doesn't matter how well the others are managed, the effects can be catastrophic.

Fourth, WHEN banks fail, guess what?  The government will need to bail them out.  That requires money and that means printing more if there isn't enough available.  Which means you wind up with crashed financial institutions AND more printed money.

Steve

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I'm sure it's MUCH worse than printing more money.

First, this gives banks an incentive to make loans that previously were deemed "too risky".  It's like telling the auto makers "you know all those safety things we require you to put in that you complained were expensive?  Well, if you want you can start leaving them out".

Second, this is decentralizing the risk at the state (Russian) level into the hands of individuals who are tasked with their own (corporation, personal compensation, status, etc.) selfish needs.  That's like a bus driver saying any random person can drive the bus for everybody, including someone who wants to take the bus in a different direction.

 

Steve

Essentially this is what happened to the US.  They packaged mortgages into assets that were increasingly risky bypassing safeguards that were meant to make sure banks would be solvent.  This then incentivized them to make even more risky loans as they figured they'd pass them off.  In the US this was done under the table.  Seems in China they didn't learn from us and have been given the go ahead by the state.

[kimbosbread]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, the FT correspondent is drinking with Roepcke or something.

...

Second, 'military briefing'? Please. Do words actually mean anything any more, even to the Brits?

It’s a Japanese newspaper now, so maybe they are trying to install a sense of urgency in the US? Witness the only oiler in the middle east running aground just now.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Folks should be very clear about this. Zelensky is going straight at the GOP ticket because the Ukrainian government has concluded that there is virtually no chance a Trump administration will not throw them to the wolves. There are 3.5 million Polish and 800,000 Ukrainian voters in the arc from Wisconsin to Pennsylvania and he is making sure they know the stakes. 

Mate, I know you and most of the Americans active on this thread are Blue Check Democrats (and are living in your own echo chamber, please understand that). But this is frankly a dreadful error of judgment on the part of Zelenskyy. It is an existential gamble for him, and an unforced error.

....In the event that Trump IS in fact elected (which remains entirely possible btw, our own various opinions and Deep Feelings of All The Feels in the matter notwithstanding), the continued support of the US in this war, in any form, will now become contingent on his timely removal as leader of Ukraine.For Donald John Trump, who is not in fact a 'fascist' -- that would require actually holding and articulating some coherent form of ideology -- but more akin to a feudal warlord (possibly worse), the political is ALWAYS personal. That is how that particular human being rolls. That has been obvious since The Donald became a public figure in the 1970s.

....So a foreign leader openly declaring himself his Enemy is a step that will never be forgotten, or forgiven.

I'm sorry guys, this is absolutely terrible news.

Edited 2 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

33 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Mate, I know you and most of the Americans active on this thread are Blue Check Democrats (and are living in your own echo chamber, please understand that). But this is frankly a dreadful error of judgment on the part of Zelenskyy. It is an existential gamble for him, and an unforced error.

....In the event that Trump IS in fact elected (which remains entirely possible btw, our own various opinions and Deep Feelings of All The Feels in the matter notwithstanding), the continued support of the US in this war, in any form, will now become contingent on his timely removal as leader of Ukraine.For Donald John Trump, who is not in fact a 'fascist' -- that would require actually holding and articulating some coherent form of ideology -- but more akin to a feudal warlord (possibly worse), the political is ALWAYS personal. That is how that particular human being rolls. That has been obvious since The Donald became a public figure in the 1970s.

....So a foreign leader openly declaring himself his Enemy is a step that will never be forgotten, or forgiven.

I'm sorry guys, this is absolutely terrible news.

Now sir, I think you know me a little better than to think I'm getting my political takes from the folks chumming it up at Cafe Milano. Trump is clearly going to screw Ukraine and has made that point clear. Just in the last few weeks has said he will lift all sanctions on Russia, that he will 'end the war' forthwith...which we both know means that he will capitulate to Putin's demands. Trump also explicitly refused to say he wanted Ukraine to succeed in the debate...not just once but twice: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/trump-ukraine-foreign-policy-approach-00178595. It is not in a bubble to think Trump will screw Ukraine...it's a Pompeo generated bubble of wishful think he won't with or without Zelensky at the helm.

And that brings us to the current imbroglio:

The Ukrainians have plenty of bipartisan folks hard at work on the Hill building support. They are in and out of almost every office on both sides on a weekly basis and what they have been told by their *Republican* friends is that the analysis above is correct. That means quite literally that Ukrainian success in this war is down to Harris winning and her chances go way up if Polish and Ukrainian supporters come out strong for her. That's it. That's the ballgame and anyone telling you Trump will save Kyiv is selling you snake oil.

Edited 2 hours ago by billbindc

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Mate, I know you and most of the Americans active on this thread are Blue Check Democrats (and are living in your own echo chamber, please understand that). But this is frankly a dreadful error of judgment on the part of Zelenskyy. It is an existential gamble for him, and an unforced error.

....In the event that Trump IS in fact elected (which remains entirely possible btw, our own various opinions and Deep Feelings of All The Feels in the matter notwithstanding), the continued support of the US in this war, in any form, will now become contingent on his timely removal as leader of Ukraine.For Donald John Trump, who is not in fact a 'fascist' -- that would require actually holding and articulating some coherent form of ideology -- but more akin to a feudal warlord (possibly worse), the political is ALWAYS personal. That is how that particular human being rolls. That has been obvious since The Donald became a public figure in the 1970s.

....So a foreign leader openly declaring himself his Enemy is a step that will never be forgotten, or forgiven.

I'm sorry guys, this is absolutely terrible news.

 

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Now sir, I think you know me a little better than to think I'm getting my political takes from the folks chumming it up at Cafe Milano. Trump is clearly going to screw Ukraine and has made that point clear. Just in the last few weeks has said he will lift all sanctions on Russia, that he will 'end the war' forthwith...which we both knows means that he will capitulate to Putin's demands. Trump aslo explicitly refused to say he wanted Ukraine to succeed in the debate...not just once but twice: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/trump-ukraine-foreign-policy-approach-00178595. It is not in a bubble to think Trump will screw Ukraine...it's a Pompeo generated bubble of wishful think he won't with or without Zelensky at the helm.

And that brings us to the current imbroglio:

The Ukrainians have plenty of bipartisan folks hard at work on the Hill building support. They are in and out of almost every office on both sides on a weekly basis and what they have been told by their *Republican* friends is that the analysis above is correct. That means quite literally that Ukrainian success in this war is down to Harris winning and her chances go way up if Polish and Ukrainian supporters come out strong for her. That's it. That's the ballgame and anyone telling you Trump will save Kyiv is selling you snake oil.

 

Trump put his cards on the table when he picked Vance for VP. I assume Zelensky did this now, because A) he has had responses to his attempts to engage with the Trump campaign that were at the very worst end of the spectrum and B ) Now is the moment where him weighing in can have maximum political impact. The most important battle of the Ukraine war since the Russians had to retreat from Kyiv is the U.S. election on November 5th. Zelensky has flaws but stupid isn't one of them. He looked at his cards and decided he had no choice but to play them. For what is worth Netanyahu is doing the same thing but in favor of Trump.

And yes the election is close, and Trump could win. All time winner for reasons to drink more and sleep badly...

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Trump put his cards on the table when he picked Vance for VP. I assume Zelensky did this now, because A) he has had responses to his attempts to engage with the Trump campaign that were at the very worst end of the spectrum and B ) Now is the moment where him weighing in can have maximum political impact. The most important battle of the Ukraine war since the Russians had to retreat from Kyiv is the U.S. election on November 5th. Zelensky has flaws but stupid isn't one of them. He looked at his cards and decided he had no choice but to play them. For what is worth Netanyahu is doing the same thing but in favor of Trump.

And yes the election is close, and Trump could win. All time winner for reasons to drink more and sleep badly...

I means seriously folks...if Ukraine winning is your issue than there is only one ticket you can vote for: 

 

[LuckyDog]

45 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

unforced error.

Respectfully disagree - IMHO Trump's thinking is that there are two types of people in this world: those who love him and those who are against him. I don't see any respect for those in the middle or people who are not strong. Now Zelensky is an enemy but an enemy who has shown strength with something he wants - those votes. Trump has a history of finding a way to align with people who previously vexed him, most notably, in this case, his VP pick.

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  He picked Vance solely to help him win the Rust Belt. Vance's actual Opinions on anything whatsoever will not amount to the proverbial bucket of warm piss in a Trump Admin reboot, until the point at which Trump clearly shows (I mean, to Republicans) his mortal expiration date (the man is what, 79?).

2. Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a map with both hands (you seen what I did there?). He gave exactly zero effs whether Ukraine or Ukrainians lived or died except inasmuch as it fed his own Donald agenda. The only reason it even entered his vocabulary was that he saw a chance to use [Outer Bu******istan] as a stick to beat Joe Biden with, via Hunter.

3.  So in other words, until a couple of days ago he was perfectly happy to see Ukraine win, preferably so long as TRUMP brand Art of the Deal(r) could be claimed to be behind it.

4. That has all changed now, irrevocably. And it has now made things vastly more difficult for the majority of American 'conservatives' (in the old fashioned Reagan sense) who have been on the Ukraine side all along.

....You are living in the DC Big Blue Bubble, bro. Everything gets filtered through the lens of OrangeManBad. Whether or not that's objectively true could become a moot point on 6 November 2024.

And evidently, so too is Vlodymyr Zelenskyy. He's about to find out there's an external world that, for better or worse, still has a vote in these matters.

Again, while I am no fan of the Kambot either, it gives me NO pleasure to say any of this, so take a hard pass on the ad homs. You should know better by now, in any case.

Edited 2 hours ago by LongLeftFlank