How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hey, OK, we all know that Russia invented the potato so they could invent vodka because they told us so. They have also told us they invented almost everything of any benefit to Humanity since the Stone Age because they said they did. How dare you question Russian claims on this?

Saw a sign yesterday

The potato gave us French fries, chips and vodka.  It is like the other vegetables aren't even trying.

[Vet 0369]

On 9/21/2024 at 1:59 PM, The_Capt said:

You are being batted around like an interesting mouse in a room full of cats.

 

YUMMY, did you say CATS? Thanks, now I’m hungry!

[LongLeftFlank]

10 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

YUMMY, did you say CATS? Thanks, now I’m hungry!

 

I laughed! I cried! I'll see it again and again.

Edited 6 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

Russian companies desperately looking for staff, but are not paying enough (msn.com)

Russian companies are desperately short of workers in a labor market skewed by the above-average salaries offered by the military and the war industry. It may sound surreal, but Russia’s unemployment rate of just 2.4% in June — the lowest since the demise of the USSR in 1991 — is actually a serious problem. The economy has overheated, there is runaway inflation, and companies are unable to find staff even by offering higher wages. In desperation, a new business culture is blooming, with programs being introduced whereby employees are paid a bonus for referring people they know to company bosses, a system widely used in the reviled United States.

This approach increased by 30% last year, with 26% of new staff hired this way, according to a survey by Russian classifieds giant Avito. Employees recommend acquaintances to their company when they believe they can adapt to their requirements. According to the portal, this reinforces “loyalty” and saves on recruitment costs.
However, these recruitment programs do not reduce the high staff turnover in Russia, caused by low salaries and the measly bonuses offered. According to job portal HeadHunter, 40% of employees last less than one year in their job, and another 28% barely last three years. “Given what they pay, it doesn’t matter if you leave your job if you are tired of it, because you will find something else,” Andrei, who works in a state-owned enterprise in Moscow and whose salary is far less than €1,000 ($1,112) a month, tells EL PAÍS.

According to the Russian statistics agency Rosstat, 55% of the population earned less than €550 ($610) a month in 2023, and only 11.2% earned more than €1,000. The army, however, pays more than €2,000 a month and an enlistment bonus of around €19,350 though, of course, this is only good if you survive to take advantage of it.

Avito estimates that 48% of all Russian companies asking staff members for recommendations offered a bonus of less than €200. This would explain why the tendency, though growing, has so far only caught on among 13% of Russian companies. According to Forbes, in the U.S., 80% of companies depend on this recruitment strategy.

But Russian consulting firms believe this is the right way to go for companies. “It improves the quality of hiring and enhances employee engagement,” according to Platrum. “The initiative demonstrates that the company values the opinions of its employees and is committed to creating an environment that encourages their participation in its growth.”

Russian consulting firm Akra estimated last March that the country needs at least 750,000 more workers to reach the break-even point where worker shortages are not pushing up inflation. This point would be reached with around 4% unemployment: below this level, companies are forced to compete in a race of unrestrained wage increases.

The president of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, has repeatedly warned against the overheating of the economy and has aimed several jabs at the Kremlin, whose war industry she blames for the huge internal imbalance. “The high level of interest rates is a response to overheated demand, but all other factors push to expand it,” Nabiullina said after the Central Bank raised rates from 16% to 18% in July. But even such high interest rates may have fallen short because it raised its inflation forecast in the past few days from 6.5% to 7.3% in 2024.

[Vet 0369]

On 9/21/2024 at 4:46 PM, Silentkilarz said:

Well, Putin better go buy a couple more horses for Kim.

Ain’t gonna happen. No more virgin mares left any where in Russia!

[Vlad]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hey, OK, we all know that Russia invented the potato so they could invent vodka because they told us so. They have also told us they invented almost everything of any benefit to Humanity since the Stone Age because they said they did. How dare you question Russian claims on this?

I know that you meant it in jest, however some parts of the "alternative" movement try to push some spiritual nonsense (and interestingly enough, they are pro-Russian - who would've thought...). Including so-called Slavic-Aryan Vedas (trying to mix some Hinduist crap with old Slavic religions) and claim that the Slavs are the oldest nation in the world who invented many things and are a force of good and that the other nations are trying to take them down, because of course they do. You can even buy books about it.

And the funniest (or saddest, depending on your PoV) thing is that quite a few people believe this stuff, at least here in Slovakia. And those people believe in their superiority, because "'Murricanz r dumb". I wish I was making this up....

[Butschi]

15 hours ago, Eug85 said:

Unlike a number of Western countries, Finland seems to be seriously considering a blockade of Russia. Deliveries of Finnish goods to Russia and Central Asia, which is a gasket between Russia and the West, are steadily declining, while other countries are rapidly increasing these deliveries.

I agree with the author that the main reason for trade with Russia is the lack of political will in a number of countries.

Giving the "The West is Weak Sermon" again?

First of all, generally I'd say that plot is meaningless without a source. For all we know it could be completely made up. I'll grant you that the author's cv suggests he might know what he is talking about. Let's, for the sake of the argument, take the plot at face value.

Ok, now, as @The_Capt pointed out, it is actually only the exports to Russia that have gone down. Exports to Central Asia haven't. Hard to estimate exactly but to me it looks like exports to Central Asia have actually gone up. So, that invalidates your statement that exports to Central Asia are "steadily" declining. The author indeed only says there is no export boom which is an entirely different statement. Even that is a rather strong statement, given that the blue bars after '22 seem to be a good deal larger on average than the ones before.

But, again, hard to estimate. All the more, if the author was interested in discussing facts not pushing his opinion - which becomes very clear looking at his other posts on X, he would have provided the actual numbers before and after '22 and had made the plot in a way that makes the small bars that his whole argument hinges upon easier to compare.

That's not all, though. What do the numbers even mean? They say nothing about what is exported. For all we know the red bars could be dual use engine components while the blue bars mainly consist of Finnish Salmiakki.

Ok, let's ignore all that for a moment. Then still the author's (and your) statement that it is all about political will is wrong. Politicians can only do so much and frankly that is a good thing. Contrary to Russia, our politicians don't own their economy. We have sanctions against Russia. The politicial will is there.

Even compliant companies will not always be able to stop their products getting into the wrong hands for the wrong purpose. Hell, exports of washing machines to Central Asia boomed at one point because of the chips inside. How do you recognize that as going around sanctions? It's a small market to begin with so a small increase in absolute numbers makes a huge relative increase. Don't get me wrong idealistic me wants that stopped. I'm realistic enough to know that completely water tight sanctions don't exist in a globalized world, though.

Lastly, at the end of the day, the nasty truth no moralizing on your side gets around is this: Sanctions are always a trade-off between hurting the target economy and hurting yours. If I am able to completely seal off my economy, then - and only then - I can make sure nothing that might remotely help Russia reaches Russia. That will obviously kill any export oriented economy, though. Ok, fine, but at least it hurts Russia. Or does it? Probably not because all the aid we send to Ukraine (and that really hurts Russia) is paid for by taxes. No tax money, no aid. So, good sanctions hurt Russia while not hurting us enough that support for Ukraine is jeopardized. Reality sucks but there it is.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Giving the "The West is Weak Sermon" again?

First of all, generally I'd say that plot is meaningless without a source. For all we know it could be completely made up. I'll grant you that the author's cv suggests he might know what he is talking about. Let's, for the sake of the argument, take the plot at face value.

Ok, now, as @The_Capt pointed out, it is actually only the exports to Russia that have gone down. Exports to Central Asia haven't. Hard to estimate exactly but to me it looks like exports to Central Asia have actually gone up. So, that invalidates your statement that exports to Central Asia are "steadily" declining. The author indeed only says there is no export boom which is an entirely different statement. Even that is a rather strong statement, given that the blue bars after '22 seem to be a good deal larger on average than the ones before.

But, again, hard to estimate. All the more, if the author was interested in discussing facts not pushing his opinion - which becomes very clear looking at his other posts on X, he would have provided the actual numbers before and after '22 and had made the plot in a way that makes the small bars that his whole argument hinges upon easier to compare.

That's not all, though. What do the numbers even mean? They say nothing about what is exported. For all we know the red bars could be dual use engine components while the blue bars mainly consist of Finnish Salmiakki.

Ok, let's ignore all that for a moment. Then still the author's (and your) statement that it is all about political will is wrong. Politicians can only do so much and frankly that is a good thing. Contrary to Russia, our politicians don't own their economy. We have sanctions against Russia. The politicial will is there.

Even compliant companies will not always be able to stop their products getting into the wrong hands for the wrong purpose. Hell, exports of washing machines to Central Asia boomed at one point because of the chips inside. How do you recognize that as going around sanctions? It's a small market to begin with so a small increase in absolute numbers makes a huge relative increase. Don't get me wrong idealistic me wants that stopped. I'm realistic enough to know that completely water tight sanctions don't exist in a globalized world, though.

Lastly, at the end of the day, the nasty truth no moralizing on your side gets around is this: Sanctions are always a trade-off between hurting the target economy and hurting yours. If I am able to completely seal off my economy, then - and only then - I can make sure nothing that might remotely help Russia reaches Russia. That will obviously kill any export oriented economy, though. Ok, fine, but at least it hurts Russia. Or does it? Probably not because all the aid we send to Ukraine (and that really hurts Russia) is paid for by taxes. No tax money, no aid. So, good sanctions hurt Russia while not hurting us enough that support for Ukraine is jeopardized. Reality sucks but there it is.

Sanctions are good, and I think there are great many additional things that could and should be done. But sanctions the world economy can survive are not going to win this war. What would at least help win the war is real, targeted attacks on the Russian militaries supply chain. There has recently been a demonstration in the news. Taking out the hardest to replace machine tools, or putting bad chips in three months of Iskander production would make a difference. I have seen very little evidence we are trying to do this at any scale.

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

or putting bad chips in three months of Iskander production would make a difference. I have seen very little evidence we are trying to do this at any scale.

in fairness, we might never know if that happens.  Unless of course Russia fires off a half dozen and they all veer off towards the Kremlin.

[Fenris]

More fun with robotic dog drones - second clip, testing dropping off via mothership.  I wonder if this is all PR or whether they're actually being used/useful.  I suppose they don't make the noise of a rotor drone and can (probably) go into wooded or urban terrain. (clip is a little loud)

 

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Many cultures raised and ate dogs, so why shouldn’t  they eat pussy cats?

You eat what the cat ate. Maybe the reason dogs and pigs are haram in Islam. Ardennes ham was only prepared after a long time in the marinate barrel before the wild boar could be trusted. Jewish people have Kosher very particular about fish 'Schellevis' Fish must have white meat and scales. I was brought up on eel dad used to catch them near the port. Cats maybe the better option as they don't scavenge as much as dogs do. My rant for the day. 

[sburke]

Russia plans to increase military spending by quarter in 2025 (msn.com)

Russia plans to significantly increase military spending in 2025, allocating 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in the corresponding budget category, according to Bloomberg.

According to Russia's three-year draft state budget, military spending in 2025 is expected to increase by nearly 3 trillion rubles ($32 billion). In 2024, 10.4 trillion rubles ($106 billion) were allocated for military expenditures. This means the military budget will grow by more than 25% next year.

In 2025, spending on national defense and internal security will account for about 40% of Russia’s total budget expenditures, surpassing the combined spending on education, healthcare, social policy, and the national economy.

Additionally, classified expenditures could rise to 12.9 trillion rubles (around $132 billion) in 2025, up from 11.1 trillion rubles (about $113 billion) this year, according to the budget draft. Part of these funds could be directed toward continuing the war against Ukraine.

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Fenris said:

More fun with robotic dog drones - second clip, testing dropping off via mothership.  I wonder if this is all PR or whether they're actually being used/useful.  I suppose they don't make the noise of a rotor drone and can (probably) go into wooded or urban terrain. (clip is a little loud)

 

It amounts to at least a first pass at a smart mine, I think. Go park in a bush beside the road and wait for a high value target.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia plans to increase military spending by quarter in 2025 (msn.com)

Russia plans to significantly increase military spending in 2025, allocating 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in the corresponding budget category, according to Bloomberg.

According to Russia's three-year draft state budget, military spending in 2025 is expected to increase by nearly 3 trillion rubles ($32 billion). In 2024, 10.4 trillion rubles ($106 billion) were allocated for military expenditures. This means the military budget will grow by more than 25% next year.

In 2025, spending on national defense and internal security will account for about 40% of Russia’s total budget expenditures, surpassing the combined spending on education, healthcare, social policy, and the national economy.

Additionally, classified expenditures could rise to 12.9 trillion rubles (around $132 billion) in 2025, up from 11.1 trillion rubles (about $113 billion) this year, according to the budget draft. Part of these funds could be directed toward continuing the war against Ukraine.

Holy crap.  That's going to be interesting to see how the Russian economy handles that.  It's a huge increase on the very thing that (as just posted above) is causing the economy the most strain.  I'm not an economist, but I think this qualifies being put in the "not the best idea" category.

Steve

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap.  That's going to be interesting to see how the Russian economy handles that.  It's a huge increase on the very thing that (as just posted above) is causing the economy the most strain.  I'm not an economist, but I think this qualifies being put in the "not the best idea" category.

Steve

Puti has clearly decided that he just can't lose this war, or at the very least he is trying very hard to give that impression. I think virtually everything the Russians do and say before Nov 5 is an attempt to influence the election. We won't have the slightest idea where things are going until after that.

[Fenris]

Thread with hi-res before/after shots of the arsenals around Toropets.  Places have been wiped clean.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Thread with hi-res before/after shots of the arsenals around Toropets.  Places have been wiped clean.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Thread with hi-res before/after shots of the arsenals around Toropets.  Places have been wiped clean.

 

Judging by the pre-strike rail yard, they left a lot of ammo sitting out just begging to be hit.  It's like having a fortress and leaving the door open.

Once again we see that blast berms are only good for protecting against fragmentation near misses or to minimize a single direct hit causing a chain reaction.  Not good against a massive explosion and fire.

I do feel bad for the trees.

Steve