How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

All this is fun, but after delving into the current situation it becomes sad. Western aid has noticeably decreased compared to previous years. Anti-Ukrainian forces in the West feel increasingly confident and receive more and more support from the population. The number of volunteers willing to defend Ukraine is steadily decreasing, and the effectiveness of mobilized Ukrainians is low, which greatly affects the combat capability of Ukrainian units. Personally, I do not find much reason to be cheerful.

This reminds me of the old American saying:

Examination of a multi-side, multi-domain conflict without looking at the other side is not very useful.

So yes, objectively things are pretty tough for Ukraine right now and, in some ways, it's been getting progressively worse since Feb 2022.  However, the fact is things aren't going well for Russia either and have been getting progressively worse since Feb 2022.  In fact, any objective analysis of this war shows something similar to the vehicle loss trend lines that TheMonkeyKing just posted.  Which is that Russia's losses continue to be far higher than Ukraine's in absolute terms, but also are continuing to trend higher than Ukraine's.

We've been saying for a very long time that this war will end when one side is exhausted.  We just don't know which side will exhaust first.  Frankly, both Ukraine and Russia have shown a surprising ability to keep going.

Steve

[Artkin]

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

an FPV using fiber optics is not gonna fly 10 km.  it is also gonna trail a fiber optic cable leading back to the operator.  That really doesn't sound like a technological advantage.  

Jam-Proof Fiber Optic Drone Testing In Ukraine

 

Aug 2, 2024 — Six miles of cable weighs about three pounds

[Artkin]

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

an FPV using fiber optics is not gonna fly 10 km.  it is also gonna trail a fiber optic cable leading back to the operator.  That really doesn't sound like a technological advantage.  

Jam-Proof Fiber Optic Drone Testing In Ukraine

 

Aug 2, 2024 — Six miles of cable weighs about three pounds

[Eug85]

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

source?  anything?  "on the internet" is about the worst source statement one can use these days.. especially if one doesn't provide an example.

Today I won the lottery.  I know it is true cause it was on the internet.  I posted it.  Where is my damned money!

an FPV using fiber optics is not gonna fly 10 km.  it is also gonna trail a fiber optic cable leading back to the operator.  That really doesn't sound like a technological advantage.  

I'm not even going to bother looking up the tweets of these Ukrainian soldiers. I'm sure the issue of drones on fiber optics will soon be on everyone's lips.

[Eug85]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This reminds me of the old American saying:

Examination of a multi-side, multi-domain conflict without looking at the other side is not very useful.

So yes, objectively things are pretty tough for Ukraine right now and, in some ways, it's been getting progressively worse since Feb 2022.  However, the fact is things aren't going well for Russia either and have been getting progressively worse since Feb 2022.  In fact, any objective analysis of this war shows something similar to the vehicle loss trend lines that TheMonkeyKing just posted.  Which is that Russia's losses continue to be far higher than Ukraine's in absolute terms, but also are continuing to trend higher than Ukraine's.

We've been saying for a very long time that this war will end when one side is exhausted.  We just don't know which side will exhaust first.  Frankly, both Ukraine and Russia have shown a surprising ability to keep going.

Steve

Well, time will tell. I wish I was wrong

[danfrodo]

54 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

Very simply, it is the ability to produce more weapons than your opponent. During the Second World War, the Russians produced more weapons than Germany (the numbers of tanks produced are impressive). Today, Russia produces more weapons than Ukraine. In my opinion, this is obvious. Russia has an advantage over Ukraine.

Well, this is definitely a brilliant analysis bringing in all the competing factors that go into victory.  Everyone here is quite thankful I am sure.  Except.....

Doesn't it seem that RU attacks are more and more and more often just mostly meat?  With much less armor & artillery than was the case even 6 months ago?  So producing more but then burning it up at a much higher rate than production means that a side with less production but much lower losses could actually be in much better shape, no?  

I think you might be kinda new here, Eug85, but simple blanket statements, such as this, in a community such as this, are kinda like asking to be pushed about a bit.  This war is waaaaaaay more complex than the very superficial bits you've been posting.  

Pay attention to posts by Steve, TheCapt, and some others about the complexity of what's going on -- TheCapt laid out the layers from strategic down to tactical for you today.  Have to look at it all when making statements about 'winning' & 'losing', which defy even basic definition in this complex situation.

[Lethaface]

39 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

Well, time will tell. I wish I was wrong

Fishy, fishy, fishy, from where comes thy smell.

Edited 1 hour ago by Lethaface

[Bil Hardenberger]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah!  Well, yeah duh.  He has a moderator badge.  Turns out we gave that to him and Bil in 2020 because of Cold War related activities.  I don't think either he or Bil ever used those special powers, for good or evil, so I rescinded them.  They are now mere mortals as far as the Forum software is concerned.

Steve

I know I used it to pin and unpin topics in both the beta and outer boards, and there were supposed to be no take backs.  

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

Jam-Proof Fiber Optic Drone Testing In Ukraine

 

Aug 2, 2024 — Six miles of cable weighs about three pounds

so an extra 3 lbs, not so bad.  How about the trailing fibre optic cable that is liable to get snagged along the way.  I once did an install back in my Bell Atlantic days for the Naval Underseas systems command in Arlington.  This was around 1989.  yeah I'm old.  I got a job over at GW University as quick as I could cause the idiots in my crew were snapping that cable about every 10-15 ft. 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Eug85 said:

I'm not even going to bother looking up the tweets of these Ukrainian soldiers. I'm sure the issue of drones on fiber optics will soon be on everyone's lips.

really?  dang that I didn't expect.  I figured you'd post something.  At least show that there were in fact tweets.  Now we have to accept your word that not only is someone talking about but that soon everyone will be talking about, but not actually anything to show anyone talking about.  Don't get me wrong, they might very well have them, but it still doesn't answer the question as to whether that is really a technology leap for the reasons I noted which you didn't answer.

So do you think it is a good idea to fly a drone with a cable behind it trailing back to the operator?  Accepting the weight suggestion from Artkin, do you think it is a good idea to have a trailing cable liable to get snagged along the way if one has to go any distance.  Here is a physical concern - the best terrain for deployment is also the terrain most likely to reveal the trailing cable.

The Haitians in Springfield OH are on everyone's lips too.  Way more than Russia fiber connected drones and yet....

Edited 54 minutes ago by sburke

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

The Haitians in Springfield OH are on everyone's lips too.  Way more than Russia fiber connected drones and yet....

I really don't like our cat.  Wish I had some Haitian immigrants here.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Eug85 said:

Western aid has noticeably decreased compared to previous years.

A good example why hit feeling is not  the best proxy for actual truth.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker

Yeah, US aid for Ukraine had a troublesome phase but it is back to where it was last year now. European aid has been pretty much constant.

Edited 35 minutes ago by Butschi

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

A good example why hit feeling is not  the best proxy for actual truth.

damned facts.  how dare you.

[Sojourner]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I really don't like our cat.  Wish I had some Haitian immigrants here.

DIY. Invite your neighbors over, just don't tell them.

 

[sburke]

my apologies for making that reference, I didn't think it through.  

[Eug85]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

really?  dang that I didn't expect.  I figured you'd post something.  At least show that there were in fact tweets.  Now we have to accept your word that not only is someone talking about but that soon everyone will be talking about, but not actually anything to show anyone talking about.  Don't get me wrong, they might very well have them, but it still doesn't answer the question as to whether that is really a technology leap for the reasons I noted which you didn't answer.

So do you think it is a good idea to fly a drone with a cable behind it trailing back to the operator?  Accepting the weight suggestion from Artkin, do you think it is a good idea to have a trailing cable liable to get snagged along the way if one has to go any distance.  Here is a physical concern - the best terrain for deployment is also the terrain most likely to reveal the trailing cable.

The Haitians in Springfield OH are on everyone's lips too.  Way more than Russia fiber connected drones and yet....

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3886

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3841?single

A couple of posts from the Ukrainian REB guru Sergey Flash. This is so that you understand what a drone on fiber optics looks like. The drum under the drone is spring-loaded and washes away excess wire, preventing it from clinging to objects on the ground. Thus, the wire is constantly taut. By the way, the price of a drone on fiber optics is $ 1,200. More expensive than a regular FPV, but the benefit of resistance to REB is significant.

Here is an example of the Russians using FPV on fiber optics. You can evaluate the image quality without video signal interference at low altitude.

[Silentkilarz]

Drones on wires, kinda the same reason the TOW still uses a wire correct? Can't really jam a wire I suppose.

[Eug85]

20 minutes ago, Butschi said:

A good example why hit feeling is not  the best proxy for actual truth.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker

Yes, but your graph clearly shows that Western aid in 2024 is less than in 2022 and 2023. The graph curve is noticeably downwards, if it were not for the supply failure from December 2023 to March 2024, the decline in aid would be even more noticeable.

In any case, it is stupid to argue with the fact that Western society is tired of the war in Ukraine. I think you have noticed this in your own countries. People are much more concerned about internal problems in their countries than about a distant war in little-known Ukraine. So it is not surprising that the topic of financial aid to Ukraine is becoming less and less popular with Western politicians.

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Fishy, fishy, fishy, from where comes thy smell.

How should I understand your post? Are you trying to insult me?

[Eug85]

52 minutes ago, sburke said:

The Haitians in Springfield OH are on everyone's lips too.  Way more than Russia fiber connected drones and yet....

It is very witty to compare the mortal threat to Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines with a political farce

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

It is very witty to compare the mortal threat to Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines with a political farce

not about wit.  It is about how well you can believe something based on internet traffic.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

It is very witty to compare the mortal threat to Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines with a political farce

All good, Eug85.  Gotta have some laughs here sometimes.  

On the war, I can't even really get a grip on what winning & losing means, outside of one side collapsing.  If lines froze as-is and there's a cease fire & (absurd) treaty, does that mean UKR won because they weren't destroyed?  Does RU win despite wrecking their economy and killing hundreds of thousands  and becoming a pariah state for many years to come?  So even with a simple to state outcome, who is the winner?