How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ukrainians are playing poker here. This ofensive is really bold move on their part as it may both weaken or actually strengthen Russian war effort. This is one of these examples in history where Cossack genes of our neighbours took over political decisions. Not many militaries would decide on something like that.

Not all politics/business/military decisions have to be perpetual risk avoiding. UKR is certainly playing poker and it might be considered a bold move; it takes some balls to take actively take risks.
But passively accepting 'in pocket' risks, or in poker terms be a 'calling station' until the river unfolds itself, isn't wiser compared to making a 'bold' move (if folding isn't an option). I'd call it good politicians (also a rare breed) instead of Cossack genes .

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Completely insane fight, which took place on 30th of April 2024. Two soldiers of 4th National Guard Rapid reaction brigade "Rubizh" defends own position near Spirne village (Siversk direction). In the first attack Russians could land into crater - during the skirmish most of them were killed and wounded, but one of UKR soldiers was also killed by enemy FPV. Single defender still fight with support of drones and rare mortar/AGS fire - they repelled four more attacks, when one Russian sqaud was landing by one and approaching to position until reinforcement arrived and cleaned the trench, were Russians already had a time to leak. 

Totaly 23 Russian soldiers were killed and 2 wounded (UKR drones dropped grenades and finished off survivors), one MTLB was destroyes, three otehr light armor were damaged. We lost one soldier Danylo Biliuk. In his honor 4th brigade issued now the video about this fight

This is very  complete video from start to finish, worth to watch as it is excellent example of small-scale actions that likely is reapeting itself by dozens along the frontline. Drones kill almost everything; note especially skillful drop at 2:50. A pitty brave defender didn't make it.

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

But passively accepting 'in pocket' risks, or in poker terms be a 'calling station' until the river unfolds itself, isn't wiser compared to making a 'bold' move (if folding isn't an option). I'd call it good politicians (also a rare breed) instead of Cossack genes

You need to  drink several times with those guys...;)

There is also military risk here; Ukranians start to lose quite a lot of vehicles and men there over last days (Giri ambush alone cost them almost entire company) from their carefully harboured brigades that were likely their strategic resource. Meanwhile Putin does not seem to be too eager to withdraw troops already assaulting on other fronts. Ukraine is literally try to squize any joule of activity from  passive golem that is Russian state and its dumb, disjoined military structure.

Edited August 14 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Not overlooked certainly, but from my POV the experience was 'Russia must be behind this' and some (not bad) sources were disqualified out of hand while pointing to Germanies kompromat potential becoming dependent on RU gas in the first place. 

I agree it is still no smoking gun, but the story about the boat and the divers which was valued as probably fantasy by (imo) several otherwise wise people, is getting 'more traction' if I may be un-Dutch indirect :). 

Certainly could still be a Russian directed operation, but it may also not be. That's a real contingency and better not to be surprised may such a thing turn out to be true; fortunately I think Germany has already stated whatever it was they still support Ukraine in it's fight against war of aggression. Anyway there will still be something to solve.

Edit: the new part of the story is that German authorities have independently verified information from foreign (and domestic) sources and came to the conclusion that there is enough hard evidence to send out an arrest warrant for an Ukrainian individual who is an experienced deep diver, who was/is living in Poland. However Poland stated Germany has made a mistake in issuing the arrest warrant and didn't supply it to the border guard equivalent, so now the individual has managed to flee from Poland to Ukraine. Ergo, PL doesn't seem to be very motivated to cooperate with the German fact finding / justice mission. Germany looks at it like it was an act of sabotage against critical infrastructure.
Being partly Dutch owned, we also have some looks but being pragmatics I guess we also feel that as it wasn't going to operate again anyway and not an attack against 'Dutch infrastructure' it doesn't really matter much anymore apart from being vigilant about the same thing not happening again by whomever.

From what I remember there was a Russian ship in the area that was being tracked by the Finns.  That ship was a type that could have done such an attack.  I also remember experts discussing about the quantity of explosives that would be needed and the conditions for making such a deep dive.  Doing this from a small rented boat doesn't seem feasible.

As for the arrest warrant, it's nothing that impresses me.  The story about the opposition for Poland also doesn't impress me.  The reason is because we have, at the very best, heard "one side of the story".

Until there is some solid information that explains who was behind this, it is all speculation.  It would be interesting to know who damaged the pipeline, of course, but just that.  Knowing who did it doesn't change anything, even if we found out 100% evidence that Russia did it.

Steve

[riptides]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

.....

I firmly believe it will work just fine to start digging in at some point soon, and make the Russians take it back EXPENSIVELY. And they will be wrecking Russian territory while they do it, instaed of Ukrainian land.

This is a simple yet harsh truth for the Russians,

Russians bombing and wrecking Russia.

The repercussions are yet to be understood for this.

[Degsy]

Exclusive footage of the liberation of the Kursk region, from Ukrainian soldiers' GoPro cameras.

A Ukrainian recce element from the recce company of 80th Separate Mech Brigade identify an abandoned Russian T80 BVM near Sudzha. A small HUMMV mounted patrol goes over the border to inspect and recover it, clearing some mines in the process. The mines have simply been laid on the road and have no anti handling devices, so they're just dragged out of the way. The video shows the landscape around Suzha, and the border post which was badly shot up either during the invasion or shortly afterwards.  It all happens in daylight and they're happily motoring along roads there and back, so they clearly don't regard enemy  drones as being a problem.

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

This is very  complete video from start to finish, worth to watch as it is excellent example of small-scale actions that likely is reapeting itself by dozens along the frontline. Drones kill almost everything; note especially skillful drop at 2:50. A pitty brave defender didn't make it.

Indeed it is (and insane as Haidruk desribed it), just watched it entirely. I was wondering what exactly was happening at 5:55, seemed a bit like the two guys hiding in the shellcrater tried to get away from the dismounts like they were some 'encourage' type of unit right when the vehicle is struck. Then a bit later they all seem to advance to the rear, or at least where the vehicle came from.
So many lonely vehicles carrying meat getting hit on the road to nowhere, with the occupants later reliving the same story but then on foot. 

 

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

You need to  drink several times with those guys...;)

There is also military risk here; Ukranians start to lose quite a lot of vehicles and men there over last days (Giri ambush alone cost them almost entire company) from their carefully harboured brigades that were likely their strategic resource. Meanwhile Putin does not seem to be too eager to withdraw troops already assaulting on other fronts. Ukraine is literally try to squize any joule of activity from  passive golem that is Russian state and its dumb, disjoined military structure.

Let's see if we can have that Odessa beach party and put those genes to work!

But indeed there is risk and certainly it's not casualty free. Modern war can produce a lot of casualties very fast by just being a tad unlucky.
At the same time, doing any combat mission with those carefully harboured brigades is going to bring risks. Keeping them stationed far away from the front is relatively risk free but also doesn't bring anything to the table. Sending them into the grind in Donbass etc is probably a more 'safe' decision to sell, but does not necessarily harbour less risk to exhaust their combat power for little to none 'return on investment'. 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

From what I remember there was a Russian ship in the area that was being tracked by the Finns.  That ship was a type that could have done such an attack.  I also remember experts discussing about the quantity of explosives that would be needed and the conditions for making such a deep dive.  Doing this from a small rented boat doesn't seem feasible.

As for the arrest warrant, it's nothing that impresses me.  The story about the opposition for Poland also doesn't impress me.  The reason is because we have, at the very best, heard "one side of the story".

Until there is some solid information that explains who was behind this, it is all speculation.  It would be interesting to know who damaged the pipeline, of course, but just that.  Knowing who did it doesn't change anything, even if we found out 100% evidence that Russia did it.

Steve

I don't want to give too much attention to the subject, it's a side issue but an interesting open question imo. So yes part of it is still in the speculation ballpark (but much of what we discuss lives near there ), but some deductions can be made. 

The Russian ship in the area can certainly not be ruled out to be involved (in this and other pipeline/cable mishaps), but (apparently) the traces of explosives aboard the rental ship do actually match traces of the explosives used.
There is various other evidence, one of which was an intelligence source about such an attack being planned by Ukrainian individuals. 

Anyway without summing the whole thing up again, that rental boat with linked/now wanted Ukrainian individuals was either involved in some deception/cover activities, or more directly involved, seems to be a safe conclusion.
One explanation for only hearing from one side is that there might be only one side interested in finding out who was behind it. That's also the title for that article I posted. Which is an interesting observation in itself, imo.

For the connection of those individuals and or who directed them / orchestrated the sabotage, there are only rumors published so far afaik. 

Concluding with, Germany certainly took their time investigating stuff and coming to the conclusion that this issue isn't ripe to be put to bed. Let's see if that individual can be found in the near future and how/where.

Edited August 14 by Lethaface

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

This is all true, but only if the Ukrainians have the forces, and the logistical capability to keep playing the game. If they have really have the forces, they need to start hooking towards Belgorod, or preferably just behind it. But would probably take ten times the forces they have committed so far, and I don't think they have that much, or anything close to it. I would love to be wrong, but as Steve just brought up the risk over extension are quite high.

I firmly believe it will work just fine to start digging in at some point soon, and make the Russians take it back EXPENSIVELY. And they will be wrecking Russian territory while they do it, instaed of Ukrainian land.

They don't have to do a Barbarossa, but just work the border regions, and not even particularly deep. It's more about keeping  RUS forces off balance and disjointed in response that actually conquering territory. 

RUS has already gone the expensive grind and are essentially strategically - > tactically formatted for that. Sure it's expensive but it's also expensive for UKR, and enormously destructive to their morale, political capital and resources. But Putin doesn't care about damage to RUS lands and people, only to his political prestige.

Fluid warfare far more suits UKR than RUS in terms personnel losses, stacked effects and political benefit.

The moment UKR dig in theyll have to start fighting like RUS, which is exactly what RUS/Putin needs. 

Don't repeat Donbass, create an entirely new AO with a warfare type that RUS would be lagging in right off the top. 

Absolutely a logistics cost to fluid warfare - but so what? There's already a cost in Donbass. Arguably it's worse because of the static nature, as RUS can more easily watch the approach routes and staging areas. With a fluid phase that becomes far more difficult. Witness the few hits by RUS OTH on rear areas of the Kursk operation. 

Last - drones. Pushing to contact zone to a full 10km wide with dispersed UKR teams working within it pkays to the nature and strength of UKR drone units. Sitting in place just let's the ****ty RUS ISR actually be effective and pile on their assets into clear, and static targets. 

Static war is death to the UKR war effort, and while fluid is death to RUS. 

In WW2 Germans could only hit and control by LOS and feet on the ground. Space was the killer of the German effort. But Drones and Western ISR flip that, for UKR - so long as they don't push too deep and stay mobile. 

Case in point:

 

Edited August 15 by Kinophile

[sburke]

2 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

To give you just a rough idea of how far Ukraine could actually be in certain regions that have not been registered on the map yet. This progress is truly incredible. 

Unless there is another Vnezapnoe, this is only 5km over the border.  Interestingly combined with the post previous about the F16 CAS mission it does indicate some kind of pressure on the bulge in support of the offensive around Sudzha.

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Degsy said:

Exclusive footage of the liberation of the Kursk region, from Ukrainian soldiers' GoPro cameras.

A Ukrainian recce element from the recce company of 80th Separate Mech Brigade identify an abandoned Russian T80 BVM near Sudzha. A small HUMMV mounted patrol goes over the border to inspect and recover it, clearing some mines in the process. The mines have simply been laid on the road and have no anti handling devices, so they're just dragged out of the way. The video shows the landscape around Suzha, and the border post which was badly shot up either during the invasion or shortly afterwards.  It all happens in daylight and they're happily motoring along roads there and back, so they clearly don't regard enemy  drones as being a problem.

Second captured tank so far. Cool

[ArmouredTopHat]

Seems hilarious to me that the Russian government is cracking down so much on social media and other forms of communication when these are often used by military units and thus suffer accordingly. Not to mention getting a lot of civilians potentially hurt too because 'everything is under control'. 

Truly a failed state.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Seems hilarious to me that the Russian government is cracking down so much on social media and other forms of communication when these are often used by military units and thus suffer accordingly. Not to mention getting a lot of civilians potentially hurt too because 'everything is under control'. 

Truly a failed state.

The even bigger problem is that this kind of total information restriction CAUSES panic. It might make things slightly better in the Moscow suburbs to just not know. But in the areas that border Ukraine the feeling that you are flying completely seems like it would make people more likely to just flee. Of course there is a pretty consistent argument that the the Putin regime could give a flyin fig about anything more than hundred kilometers from Moscow or St Petersburg.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The even bigger problem is that this kind of total information restriction CAUSES panic. It might make things slightly better in the Moscow suburbs to just not know. But in the areas that border Ukraine the feeling that you are flying completely seems like it would make people more likely to just flee. Of course there is a pretty consistent argument that the the Putin regime could give a flyin fig about anything more than one kilometer from Moscow or St Petersburg or Putin's dacha.

fixed that for ya

[sburke]

Mideast oil powerhouse bans Russian 'shadow fleet' vessels that seek to undermine sanctions (msn.com)

The United Arab Emirates has pushed back on Russia’s efforts to circumvent Western sanctions through a "shadow fleet" by refusing entry to its port for any ship from the African country of Eswatini. 

"Using a ‘shadow fleet’ to smuggle oil while concealing its origin, in order to circumvent Western economic sanctions has been part of Putin’s playbook of sanction-proofing Russia’s economy," Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer and author of "Putin’s Playbook," told Fox News Digital. 

"Moscow anticipated U.S. sanctions prior to the invasion of Ukraine," Koffler said. "So, Putin has been sanction-proofing the Russian economy with several measures since 2014, when the Russian forces took over Crimea."
"The vessels comprising this dark fleet are typically aging, lack proper safety standards, lack insurance, hence they present a threat to maritime security as they can create a hazardous situation at any time," she added. 

A list of ships published by the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure names Eswatini as the latest country to which no services from any UAE ship agents or maritime company should be provided as they "are not complying with this circular to avoid legal accountability." 

 

The flags of Eswatini started showing up this year, with ship broker Clarkson Research Services Ltd. reporting zero ships in 2023 registered under the Eswatini flag even as 26 such ships now sail the seas. 

 

Edited August 15 by sburke

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

fixed that for ya

True....

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

This is bound to get the drunk lunatic especially mad. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/?xmt=AQGz7jz71rX0-0gG9pppZVwM9W1DSsmeAM-vFUkK8_R8lvI

On the first day of the offensive in the Kursk region, the Armed Forces advanced so quickly that the Russian military often mistook Ukrainians for their ownAccording to officer Volodymyr, one of his units occupied the 2nd line of defense of the Russians on the first day.Soon after, 2 Russian military trucks arrivedAbout 100 soldiers got out of the trucks & moved toward our position.They didn't know that their 2nd line was already our first ...

 

When they approached about 60 meters, our soldiers opened fire, the officer saidBy evening, a Russian tank arrived.The tank was not ready for battle, Volodymyr said. The tankers also did not know that this territory was already under our control.The tank drove towards the forest where the Defense Forces were digging trenches. A tanker got out & asked them:"Guys, where is the best place to park?" The Ukrainians answered: "Get out, you have already parked"The tank was captured, crew taken POWs

 

 

[Offshoot]

The spoils of war:

Ukrainian Military Seizes Volnorez EW System with Documentation in Kursk Oblast
 

Quote

 

In the Kursk oblast, the Ukrainian military seized a Russian Volnorez electronic warfare system with documentation.

Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov, who posted a video of this electronic warfare system, said that the system was found in its original packaging.

These systems were first reported in Russian forces last autumn...

It is designed specifically to combat FPV drones.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

 

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

When they approached about 60 meters, our soldiers opened fire, the officer saidBy evening, a Russian tank arrived.The tank was not ready for battle, Volodymyr said. The tankers also did not know that this territory was already under our control.The tank drove towards the forest where the Defense Forces were digging trenches. A tanker got out & asked them:"Guys, where is the best place to park?" The Ukrainians answered: "Get out, you have already parked"The tank was captured, crew taken POWs

The FoW impact is likely a major factor in Russia's losses.  It is ALWAYS dangerous to move up to a frontline, even when it is static, because you can never be absolutely sure where the line is at that moment.  But approaching a frontline that is in motion is especially dangerous.  And if you're a military that has a long tradition of piss-poor communications and timely planning, it's just downright deadly.

Back in the old days competent militaries understood how much they didn't know.  Generally speaking a counter attacking force would set up well to the rear of where they thought the breakthrough was, allowing the attacker to come to them instead of the other way around.  Sure, you might lose some ground in the process, but you were less likely to get ambushed while in march formation.  Even then, things often went poorly due to imperfect information.

Russia has gotten very used to the front being static everywhere they themselves weren't attacking.  Putting incompetent/inexperienced units directly into the fight is just dumb for all the usual reasons Russia Sux™ at fighting wars.  Smart leadership would have deployed further back and formed a brand new line, allowing Ukraine to swallow up more territory today in exchange for getting none tomorrow.  Fortunately, that's not what happened!

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

Nordstrem? The Nordstream lies in like 50 meter depth that requires specialized diving equipment to get to? The nordstream that was based on the damage and seismic records got blown up but hundreds of kilograms of explosives?

What is more likely?

1. Some Ukrainians rented a charter yacht in Poland and somehow snuck hundreds of kilograms of explosives and specialized diving equipment on it (in a recreational boat marina) and hid it in a cabin. Then they executed a complicated diving operation that includes dropping those hundreds of kilograms of explosives in the right spots in the middle of the night and managed to find the divers and leave.

2. The Russian ship equipped with for underwater works - with strong underwater lights, cranes, large cargo hold, the ability to hold position (because ships continuously drift in wind and sea currents and diving operations ships need specialized autopilots to "hold position" for the divers to come back) and other equipment, that is stopping in commercial harbors where crates of explosives and deep diving equipment would not get noticed at all - that was seen hanging around with transponder turned off did it.

Like 1 is barely possible while 2 is exactly the type of operation that this ship is built for?

Honestly, it feels like this whole "Germany thinks Ukraine did it after investigation" feels like Russia signalling "look at us, we control German law enforcement and journalists". Maybe some old school Stasi guys that still report to Moscow are running this investigation.

[Lethaface]

36 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Nordstrem? The Nordstream lies in like 50 meter depth that requires specialized diving equipment to get to? The nordstream that was based on the damage and seismic records got blown up but hundreds of kilograms of explosives?

What is more likely?

1. Some Ukrainians rented a charter yacht in Poland and somehow snuck hundreds of kilograms of explosives and specialized diving equipment on it (in a recreational boat marina) and hid it in a cabin. Then they executed a complicated diving operation that includes dropping those hundreds of kilograms of explosives in the right spots in the middle of the night and managed to find the divers and leave.

2. The Russian ship equipped with for underwater works - with strong underwater lights, cranes, large cargo hold, the ability to hold position (because ships continuously drift in wind and sea currents and diving operations ships need specialized autopilots to "hold position" for the divers to come back) and other equipment, that is stopping in commercial harbors where crates of explosives and deep diving equipment would not get noticed at all - that was seen hanging around with transponder turned off did it.

Like 1 is barely possible while 2 is exactly the type of operation that this ship is built for?

Honestly, it feels like this whole "Germany thinks Ukraine did it after investigation" feels like Russia signalling "look at us, we control German law enforcement and journalists". Maybe some old school Stasi guys that still report to Moscow are running this investigation.

Sometimes unlikely doesn't mean that the inverse must be true.

I have posted enough about it, but I think it will get more attention.

Ps If you think RU controls the German court system at such a level that it can steer this by a Stasi agent in 2024, is more likely in this story, I don't know what to say really

 

[Haiduk]

Yesterday special forces of SBU captured Russian company strongpoint and have taken 102 captives of 488th MRR and several "Akhmat" fighters, obviously their "supervisors". Most of captured are young conscripts. Reportedly their officers abandoned them and personnel has decided to throw a white flag. It was a position with reinforced blindages prepared to defense with proper stock of ammunition

Russian captives in the hangar

Reportedly the quantity of Russian POWs so large so far, that it already interferes to operation, because we have to distract forces to guard them and transport to evacuate them on Ukrainian territory

[Butschi]

32 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Honestly, it feels like this whole "Germany thinks Ukraine did it after investigation" feels like Russia signalling "look at us, we control German law enforcement and journalists". Maybe some old school Stasi guys that still report to Moscow are running this investigation.

Honestly, and no offense meant, it feels like you want it to be the Russians and so can't accept evidence that points in a different direction.

Re your point 1: At least one member of that team was a specialist in diving to these depths.

Thinking that so many people in the German judiciary system plus the journalists from at least three different news outlets are all on the Russian payroll is quite ridiculous. Try to see it from a different point of view: Evidence pointing towards Ukraine is really inconvenient for our government, especially with a bunch of elections coming up that sees the Putin supporters in front. I know, Scholzing and all but we did send a lot of money and equipment to Ukraine. Learning that Ukrainians blew up the pipelines - possibly even with support from the Ukrainian military - would put the government into a difficult position. Well, an even worse position than it is in now. In addition, aggravating the Polish government would have been kind of satisfying when it was still PiS, I guess, but we really don't want this to happen with the new government.

So, whatever the truth will turn out to be in the end, I think it is very unlikely that this arrest warrant would have been sent if there wasn't solid evidence to back it.

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yesterday special forces of SBU captured Russian company strongpoint and have taken 102 captives of 488th MRR and several "Akhmat" fighters, obviously their "supervisors". Most of captured are young conscripts. Reportedly their officers abandoned them and personnel has decided to throw a white flag. It was a position with reinforced blindages prepared to defense with proper stock of ammunition

More clips here:

This will create interesting case, as Kadyrov will likely push for exchange of his (Caucasus custom) while Russians so far refused to cooperate with Ukraine on the matter. There was already lot of noise and complain among Russians in the past about special privileges kadyrovtsy gain during such swaps.

[mosuri]

More satellite imagery about Rostov-on-the-Bottom:

 

 

[zinz]

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yesterday special forces of SBU captured Russian company strongpoint and have taken 102 captives of 488th MRR and several "Akhmat" fighters, obviously their "supervisors". Most of captured are young conscripts. Reportedly their officers abandoned them and personnel has decided to throw a white flag. It was a position with reinforced blindages prepared to defense with proper stock of ammunition

Russian captives in the hangar

Reportedly the quantity of Russian POWs so large so far, that it already interferes to operation, because we have to distract forces to guard them and transport to evacuate them on Ukrainian territory

The amount of Russian prisoners makes this operation feel different to the ones before. Well might have knock on effects in other areas as well with more Russians willing to surrender