How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[db_zero]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think this matters much during a conflict.  Like everything else for the past 50+ years, you can only count on what you have in hand.  Protracted occupation type conflicts are a different beast.

The real impact of resource restrictions is on a country like Russia or North Korea where their ability to produce or procure the high tech stuff is greatly restricted.  In this case they go to war without it.

Steve

I just saw an article and the head of Army procurement said we can boost production so likely congress is going to get a request.

I think they should ask for more than what was handed out.

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, sross112 said:

We've seen quite a few videos of RA prisoners the last couple days. Does anyone know of a source that would have good numbers on POW's? Haiduk or Kraze?

 

Ukraine has been keeping these numbers close to its chest.  I only once saw a number released from an official Ukrainian source and that was... hmm... going into Week 2?  I don't remember, but it was likely a major under count.  I think it was somewhere around 1200.  It's posted in this thread somewhere, but that's like finding a needle in a haystack.

I'd guess Ukraine has probably taken at least 600 prisoners at this point.  This is based on an estimate of 20 per day for 30 days.  We've certainly seen prisoner events of 30+ at one go.  The American who just started posting to Twitter said they took 159 prisoner on their own, so I could be under estimating by a lot.

I expect the number of prisoners taken per day is going to go up dramatically on a daily basis this week.  Pressure is building towards total collapse scenarios at least within isolated areas (e.g. NW of Kiev)

Steve

[Greup]

4 hours ago, Commanderski said:

Just saw this: Swedish Air Force jet deployed over Belarus border in threat to Putin.

It wasn't a fighter jet but it was a Swedish Air Force jet. The article said that Sweden is now also supplying some weapons to the Ukrainians.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1586623/Swedish-Air-Force-Korpen-jet-deployed-Belarus-border-Poland-Putin-Ukraine-NATO-war-latest

Oh, that’s a scoop, right? So the express.co.uk is a reliable source now? LOL. It’s rather the tabloid of Internet news AFAIK. 
Sweden did send 5000 AT4s a week or two ago to Ukraine and this week they decided to send 5000 more (putting them on Putin’s “unfriendly” countries list). It’s not exactly breaking news. 

Regarding jets: So what country/organization would a Swedish fighter jet belong to if not the Swedish Air Force? The Swedish Mad Fighter Jet’s Association? ROFLMAO, but  I guess express.co.uk have inside news unbeknownst to the rest of the world. Anyways, a signals intelligence airplane is not really a threat to Putain (French spelling), is  it? And it would not be over Belarus but close to the Belarus border if anything. Whatever. 

Just try to be as sane as possible and don’t refer to tabloid media as some kind of objective truth, will you.

Cheers, 
Greup
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

More from that Azov NG unit:

Would be interesting to know when this particular footage was taken.

For me, this is the first video I've seen of company sized infantry forces on the Ukrainian side.

Steve

[akd]

Another segment from Vilkhivka:

 

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, sross112 said:

We've seen quite a few videos of RA prisoners the last couple days. Does anyone know of a source that would have good numbers on POW's? Haiduk or Kraze?

 

Officially three days ago was reported about approx 570 POWs, but this is only registered and placed to places of detain. But this number can be much more. Also this number not include LDPR POWs

From our side reported about 92 known Ukrainian POWs. There was first official exchenge 10 for 10. But also there were unofficilal - in the first days of war in Sumy oblast captured Russian officer was changed for five captured territorial defense fighters. Further for one body of dead Russian we change for 2-3 our captured soldiers, but this was not often practic 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Would be interesting to know when this particular footage was taken.

This is 25-26th of March, our troops liberated two villages Vilkhivka and Mala Rogan' east of Kharkiv

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Advancing and taking prisoners near Sumy:

 

[Cogust]

22 minutes ago, Greup said:

Regarding jets: So what country/organization would a Swedish fighter jet belong to if not the Swedish Air Force? The Swedish Mad Fighter Jet’s Association? ROFLMAO, but  I guess express.co.uk have inside news unbeknownst to the rest of the world. Anyways, a signals intelligence airplane is not really a threat to Putain (French spelling), is  it? And it would not be over Belarus but close to the Belarus border if anything. Whatever. 

It is a Swedish SIGINT plane flying along the Belarus border in Polish airspace, it has been confirmed by the Swedish Airforce. It usually flies over the Baltic Sea very close to Kaliningrad, but I guess they want to be able to listen real stuff instead of the usual routine.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

Advancing and taking prisoners near Sumy:

 

This is not Russians, just separs conscripts.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Officially three days ago was reported about approx 570 POWs, but this is only registered and placed to places of detain. But this number can be much more. Also this number not include LDPR POWs

Thanks for that!  Looks like my estimate of 600 in my previous post (note, I had an extra zero by accident that is now edited out) is not that far off.

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

From our side reported about 92 known Ukrainian POWs. There was first official exchenge 10 for 10. But also there were unofficilal - in the first days of war in Sumy oblast captured Russian officer was changed for five captured territorial defense fighters. Further for one body of dead Russian we change for 2-3 our captured soldiers, but this was not often practic 

There is also apparently some local exchanges happening.  There was a video report where Ukrainians brought 10 bodies of Russian soldiers to the Russians in exchange for some live Ukrainians (I forget the number).  I am sure events like this are not being carefully tracked by higher command.

Steve

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been thinking a lot about this in the past couple of weeks:

If I had a choice between unlimited UAVs or unlimited ATGMs, which would I take?

The more and more I see from this war the more and more I think I'd opt for UAVs.  Both are force multipliers for sure, but there are multiple alternatives for dealing with armored vehicles that don't involve fancy ATGMs.  The amount of ways you can foook up the enemy if you know where and when he is has far greater impact than fancy boomsticks.

Steve

Nah. Looking at him won't hurt him.

But liquid jet of molten copper up the wazoo will... And unlimited ATGMs means essentially distributed defense in depth,. So SOMEONE 8s gonna see him.

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Cogust]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is not Russians, just separs conscripts.

What are separatists doing in Sumy, isn't that awfully far away from Donbas? I think the red tape is not exclusive to LPR/DPR-troop, I think that some Russians units use them as well.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Cogust

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

Advancing and taking prisoners near Sumy:

Looks like 8 DLPR guys captured.  What the heck are they doing all the way up there?  That's quite a way from where they should be.  Or maybe these are Rosgvardiya?

Steve

[akd]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like 8 DLPR guys captured.  What the heck are they doing all the way up there?  That's quite a way from where they should be.  Or maybe these are Rosgvardiya?

Steve

No, as Haiduk notes, probably dudes conscripted from separatist areas.  Red arm bands and ragtag uniform.  The Rosgvardia troops are very much Russian “regular” forces, sport the usual white bands, and often have good equipment, sometimes better than Russian Army.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Nah. Looking at him won't hurt him.

No, but the artillery you accurately rain down on him will

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

But liquid jet of molten copper up the wazoo will... And unlimited ATGMs means essentially distributed defense in depth,. So SOMEONE 8s gonna see him.

Drones mean you know where the enemy is before he knows where you are.  You can hit them with artillery or mortars loooooooong before any of your ATGM guys would even know something is coming.  You can arrange "welcoming parties" with regular AT weapons.  You can drop hurt on their artillery before it can hurt you.  You can neutralize things that you might not otherwise encounter, such as EW, CP, and other assets.  Not to mention knowing where the enemy's trucks are.

Nope, you'll have to do better than that to convince me to take ATGMs over UAVs

Steve

[dan/california]

Have the Russians used the separatist conscripts as sacrificial roadblocks while the better units ran?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

No, as Haiduk notes, probably dudes conscripted from separatist areas.  Red arm bands and ragtag uniform.  The Rosgvardia troops are very much Russian “regular” forces, sport the usual white bands, and often have good equipment, sometimes better than Russian Army.

That's what I figured, but they are way outside of their range.  I figured the called up conscripts were going to be fed into the traditional DLPR fighting zones.  Having them up by Sumy is a surprise.

Well, I think this is definitive proof that Russia is prepared to lose the northeastern part of its frontline.  Once that happens the forces NE of Kiev had better hope Belarus remains friendly or they will be instantly pocketed.  The forces NW of Kiev are already screwed.

Steve

[dan/california]

If one side has 152/155 with ammo and drone feeds, and the other side doesn't it isn't even a real fight anymore. The side with a working kill chain will just obliterate the other guys assets in order of priority and/or detection. So the entirety of the fight that matters is to put yourself in that position.

[Kinophile]

Rezantsev (49th CAA C,/O) was at  at Chornobaivka airbase - y'know, where all those helos were safely landing and taking off...

I wonder if he moved forwards to stiffen defensive resolve and chose THE MOST PERFECT SPOT on the entire front line.

 

[DesertFox]

A wasted generation. So young...

 

 

[TheVulture]

Here's some light comedy for you all this afternoon / evening:

 

 

[BletchleyGeek]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I don't think I have seen this posted yet, apologize if it was.  Pretty even handed:

 

That was an excellent talk, thank you for forwarding it.

Definitely a procurement & planning guy, the joke about Robert McNamara was really funny.

[DesertFox]