Battlefront.com Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Saw this rather interesting hit. It appears to be an ATV that was hauling fuel, it got hit by something (mine?), and kept on going for a while. A visual indication of how delicate supplies have become where even a very small, light vehicle carrying relatively little (compared to a truck) is having difficulties getting through: Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Just remembered suddenly the guy writing about the old Marine who supposedly dated back to Tet and was now fighting in Ukraine with an apparent ability to discern strategic truths from shrapnel on the North side of a tree and the state of the Russian army by the stains on a mobik's combat smock. Out of curiosity, what ever happened to that fabulist? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kraft said: Theres ~3 hours of guaranteed electricity per day in Kyiv, with 60-70% of the infrastructure gone at this point. It is worse in regions closer to the frontline, I'd say the goal is nearly complete, so they are going to the next lowest priority which is hospitals. Interception rate has been decreasing since 2024, the last attack was roughly 50% interception. In winter there will not be enough generators to supply every town and village with one and these local gathering spots will be a big target for russian strikes. Well maybe we worry less about which million dollar platform to throw at this problem and start thinking home heating and power generation. And add to that, reconstruction as a general theme. Edited July 9 by The_Capt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Not surprising, but if true it is at least a reinforcement of what Russia is trying to do this year... wait out Ukraine's ability to defend itself. This from a leaked document sent by Orban to the EU after his visit with Putin a week ago: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/orban-sends-secret-letter-to-eu-leaders-after-meeting-with-putin-details-revealed/ar-BB1pEQpi?cvid=d14aca50c03a4c11b3ce23ff06f25ef6&ei=39 Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 The Economist is reporting that Russian casualties may be higher than 500k, but are unlikely to be significantly less: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/more-than-all-losses-since-world-war-ii-the-economist-calculated-russia-s-casualties/ar-BB1py1Rf Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Well, what do you know. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Not surprising, but if true it is at least a reinforcement of what Russia is trying to do this year... wait out Ukraine's ability to defend itself. This from a leaked document sent by Orban to the EU after his visit with Putin a week ago: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/orban-sends-secret-letter-to-eu-leaders-after-meeting-with-putin-details-revealed/ar-BB1pEQpi?cvid=d14aca50c03a4c11b3ce23ff06f25ef6&ei=39 Steve This really smacks of keeping the boss isolated from the truth. I am betting Putin has no idea how bad things are for the RA as reports get scrubbed and spun up the chain. Hell, his generals might not even know. They have convinced themselves that Ukraine are on the ropes…which may also explain the terror attacks. They are looking for some willpower tipping point they are convinced is very close. This smacks of the WW1 “just one more push” narratives. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 I need to pushback the notion that Russia is a rabid dog. The Russian bombing campaign consists of calculated actions designed with specific goals in mind. I am in favor of the Capt stating that Russian clownery is a clutch, but I do think hes not able to grasp Russian mindset on terror and brutality. Maybe a example of Western arrogance. 1. Let's think about the terror mindset. Russia was able to wage hospital bombing after bombing in Syria to very little concrete pushback. We see now still that Russia continues to bomb and inflict pain on civilians in Ukraine to western nonresponse. Oh sure, more air defense. But mind you, while air defense is important, things like the collapse of electric production clearly indicate some Russian drones and missiles get through despite the defense. So for Ukrainians to watch this occur without Western offensive support increasing or permission for offensive protection of Ukraine is a morale draining situation. Consider also the essence of brutality, the lashing out of brutality on Ukraine serves a purpose, sure it may just smooth the Russian soldier and civilian to balance the defeats but end of the day these things tie into morale and morale ties into the strategic and political dimension of the country at war. Regard also the idea of escalation and de-escalation. A idea circling around is the idea that Russia does what it does because no one stops them. That flies in the face of Russia warning about nuclear escalation right? That Russia may be forced to escalate. The idea proposes that Russia, knowing that the West is scared of escalation, plays on it to illustrate Western impotence and ineffectiveness. So I open up the can of worms to warn that actions like Russian bombing of hospitals are intended as acts of terror, as expressions for their disregard for notions of "illegality", and as assertions of the futility of western support. Therefore for the west to refrain from allowing Ukraine to strike Russian military targets in Russian territory raining down missiles on civilian targets is not a deesculatory move, but a legitimation of Russian escalatory moves. A country worried about escalation would not be tossing IHL in the trash, a country worried about inviting their suffering on their civilian population would not be so quick to attack civilian targets, the fact they do so is to emphasize Western weakness. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 minutes ago, The_Capt said: This really smacks of keeping the boss isolated from the truth. I am betting Putin has no idea how bad things are for the RA as reports get scrubbed and spun up the chain. Hell, his generals might not even know. They have convinced themselves that Ukraine are on the ropes…which may also explain the terror attacks. They are looking for some willpower tipping point they are convinced is very close. This smacks of the WW1 “just one more push” narratives. Quote https://www.politico.eu/article/international-olympics-committee-chiefs-fury-russia-vladimir-putin-allies-top-jobs-shamil-tarpischev-yelena-isinbaeva/ Olympics chiefs face fury over Putin allies in top jobs Kremlin cronies holding senior Olympic positions “is an official recognition of Russia’s triumph against international law,” Lithuanian PM told POLITICO. On one level the Olympics is an irrelevant distraction from more or less everything. And the Chinese are cheating even harder than Russians. At same time the fact that, with the Olympics being held in Paris this year, that some Russians still have jobs with IOC, and other Russians will be able to attend the games, is a big part of why Putin can lie to himself. I still go back to the visa ban issue, it has gotten harder for Russians to travel, but not nearly hard enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 33 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Well maybe we worry less about which million dollar platform to throw at this problem and start thinking home heating and power generation. And add to that, reconstruction as a general theme. The west seemed to do a pretty decent job of this last year with supplying generators, so there is that at least. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethaface Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 (edited) I have been busy so only able to partly lurk the updates overhere and elsewhere. I have an observation on the whole tank is dead topic (linked to the infantry screening, density and Russia's CA capability assessments) which I felt like sharing. Not to light a fire under it again, but imo there are separate area's of interest which keep continuing to mingle in discussions. A) One has a perspective of analysis in order to explain the current war and how things happened the way they did -afterthoughts and analysis which will continue for a couple of decades when more info becomes available. B - Another has a perspective of 'where to go next' and how to get there (policy and vision development, incl doctrine & procurement). Lets call it future strategy. C) The last perspective is operational as in what to do with what we have now / are doing at the moment? Do you throw all tanks in the bin and send the crew home, replacing them with what exactly? This is perhaps not a complete or completely accurate list, but the answer to 'the tank is dead' isn't going to answer any of the problems in those area's of interest. A) doesn't decide that. And while A B and C should ideally be 'in sync' chronologically, we are now in a quantum position where everything is happening at the same time and that causes friction. Interesting friction, but it's good to keep in mind that the answer to whether 'the tank is dead' might be different for all area's but not necessarily logically incoherent. The correct question to ask oneself is 'what issue is actually on the table?'. Imo the 'battlefront doctrine' is mostly inside B spectrum. Edited July 9 by Lethaface 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 No change yet in policy, but that strike on the children's hospital might just be the nudge that is needed. Missile attack on Ukraine: Biden's administration discusses whether to allow strikes on Russian airfields (msn.com) Quote The US will not rescind Ukraine's permission to strike Russian territory near the state border, states John Kirby, the US National Security Council's coordinator for strategic communications. "There's been no change in our policy. You saw the president several weeks ago gave guidance to Ukraine that they can use US supply weapons to strike targets just over the border. That's still the case," he said. However, Kirby did not provide a clear answer to the journalist's question about whether the US could allow the Ukrainian Air Force to strike military airfields deep inside Russia where hostile strategic aviation is based. Massive missile shelling of Ukraine on July 8 On Monday morning, July 8, Russia launched a large-scale missile strike against Ukraine. The aggressor simultaneously released 40 missiles of various types from multiple directions. The attacks targeted Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. In particular, in Kyiv, one X-101 missile destroyed the building of the largest children's hospital, Okhmatdyt. Over 50 people, mostly medical staff, were injured as a result of the hospital shelling. According to recent reports, 27 people, including two children, have died in the capital, with 82 others injured. Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will eventually receive permission to strike Russian bombers at Russian airfields with Western weaponry. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Western countries should allow Ukraine to attack Russian military targets with Western weapons. This move could disrupt the aggressor's large-scale offensive operations. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Not surprising, but if true it is at least a reinforcement of what Russia is trying to do this year... wait out Ukraine's ability to defend itself. This from a leaked document sent by Orban to the EU after his visit with Putin a week ago: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/orban-sends-secret-letter-to-eu-leaders-after-meeting-with-putin-details-revealed/ar-BB1pEQpi?cvid=d14aca50c03a4c11b3ce23ff06f25ef6&ei=39 Steve This fits pretty well with the recent "Putin gaffe", when he let slip that Ukraine suffers a ludicrous 50.000 casualties per month while Russia suffers "only 15.000", so therefore it's all dandy. I think there is a good chance that he actually believes that or something very close to that based on falsified reports by scared people in the reporting hierarchy, and as @TheCaptainpointed out, this actually gives some method to the madness of the terror attacks. He thinks that Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar are Ukraine's Verdun, and that the other side is being bled white, Falkenhayn style. It does not sound like a man who is aware that his tank reserves are slowly approaching the number of MBTs operated by Poland. Edited July 9 by Carolus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 34 minutes ago, FancyCat said: So I open up the can of worms to warn that actions like Russian bombing of hospitals are intended as acts of terror, as expressions for their disregard for notions of "illegality", and as assertions of the futility of western support. Therefore for the west to refrain from allowing Ukraine to strike Russian military targets in Russian territory raining down missiles on civilian targets is not a deesculatory move, but a legitimation of Russian escalatory moves. A country worried about escalation would not be tossing IHL in the trash, a country worried about inviting their suffering on their civilian population would not be so quick to attack civilian targets, the fact they do so is to emphasize Western weakness. Well said. The West is more ok with Russia hitting Ukrainian children hospitals than with Ukraine hitting Russian military bases. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Short update from Mashovets: https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2020 Quote In the Kupyansk direction, it seems, a crisis is brewing, similar to the "Ocheretin breakthrough"... From the enemy's advanced positions in the area of the village of Peschanoye to the Oskol River there are "as the crow flies" just over 10 km left... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ts4EVER Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 18 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: Short update from Mashovets: https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2020 Peschanoye, huh? That was a focal point of the initial assault during the second battle of Kharkov. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 23 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: Short update from Mashovets: https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2020 I don't know what to make of this. Mashovets is not an alarmist, but we've heard about the Kupyansk front collapsing for well over a year. Just about since the front stabilized after Ukraine's infamous counter offensive. For sure it's been a pressure cooker most of that time, but is it really on the cusp of a Russian breakthrough of any significance? Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 44 minutes ago, Lethaface said: The correct question to ask oneself is 'what issue is actually on the table?'. That's the question that we keep asking and it's why the TankIsDead™ topic quickly resurfaces. "What issue is actually on the table" is probably best boiled down to "the ability to conduct offensive ground operations". Not just "maneuver warfare", but any form of warfare that leads to seizing territory. So "attritional warfare", "combined arms", "full spectrum", etc. are all having a tough time showing viability right now. The TankIsDead™ comes up fast because the manueverists argue that there is a way to restore the tank's traditional role and once that is accomplished maneuver warfare is viable again. The side that thinks that isn't realistic have concluded there isn't anything to restore it's role and therefore the whole concept of maneuver warfare needs to be revised into something else. Furthermore, the TankIsDead™ discussion gets at the other doctrines being in trouble because if one can't revive the accepted primary offensive doctrine of the past 80+ years, most of the other doctrines are in trouble since they are generally based on some assumptions of maneuver warfare. Attritional warfare kinda does too, but not necessarily and is in big trouble for a bunch of reasons, some of which are the same as the challenge of maneuver warfare. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 hours ago, billbindc said: Just remembered suddenly the guy writing about the old Marine who supposedly dated back to Tet and was now fighting in Ukraine with an apparent ability to discern strategic truths from shrapnel on the North side of a tree and the state of the Russian army by the stains on a mobik's combat smock. Out of curiosity, what ever happened to that fabulist? I should've signed up to help Ukraine also, given my experience at Belleau Wood, Normandy, Inchon and Hui. On the subject of UKR electricity crisis, perhaps this is a good example of what to expect meaning "the drone always gets through". If you throw enough drones & missiles at the highly distributed infrastructure, the defense simply gets overwhelmed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, FancyCat said: Regard also the idea of escalation and de-escalation. A idea circling around is the idea that Russia does what it does because no one stops them. That flies in the face of Russia warning about nuclear escalation right? That Russia may be forced to escalate. The idea proposes that Russia, knowing that the West is scared of escalation, plays on it to illustrate Western impotence and ineffectiveness. No I get the brutality part…kinda hard to miss. It is the reason for the brutality. I do not fully subscribe to brutality just because they are Russia line - although there are days. My point is that brutality has to have an objective and it is very hard to discern exactly what the Russian objective is. The risks it takes are obvious: western anger and resolve to continue to support goes up (which is bad for Russia), our red lines get shifted - now with easy justification, and Ukraine digs in deeper because you cannot make a reasonable peace deal with a nation that kills sick children. Your logic does really follow to be honest. If Russia “knows” the West is all afraid of escalation, then why continue to push us towards it? Are we somehow going to tap out because Russia is bombing children’s hospitals? Are we going to back off if they decide to do a WMD release because of children’s hospitals? And if the play is to somehow shame us, that is counterproductive as our answer is to keep pushing support, not go “ok, we are weak…you can have Ukraine.” A demonstration to the West of how brutal they are is counter to their objectives of getting the West to back off. Let alone renormalization, which is simply never going to happen now. A demonstration for Ukraine is putting a hat on a hat..they already know. A demonstration for their own people may get some traction but it may also cause blowback. A demonstration for their allies really doesn’t make sense. A demonstration for other nations in Russia sphere…maybe? But again, they kinda blew all that up by screwing up the initial invasion so badly. So out of all of that, maybe doing this for their own people or some weird hope that Ukraine is about to fall and only needs a good push makes sense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 (edited) Calling the bluff of the Russians has worked before it should be said NATO have been far too lenient imo when it comes to the constant airspace violations that the Russians love to perform for instance. The moment Turkey shot one down and made it clear it was not to be tolerated in their airspace, they stopped doing so (To Turkey) We should always be cautious of escalation, but at the same time the constant violations performed by Russia should not be ignored or accepted either. Such a view should be taken if the Russians try to down another drone over international waters in the Black sea. One could argue they should be demands to stop the massive amounts of Jamming coming from Kaliningrad as well, that's not doing much outside of disrupting a lot of civilian air traffic. Still a flagrant violation of borders all the same. Edited July 9 by ArmouredTopHat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 3 hours ago, FancyCat said: I need to pushback the notion that Russia is a rabid dog. You reminded me of this meme @FancyCat 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 (edited) Hey folks, after long break and only occasional lurking nice to come back to this forum, hoping I can post more often now. 2 hours ago, The_Capt said: A demonstration to the West of how brutal they are is counter to their objectives of getting the West to back off. Let alone renormalization, which is simply never going to happen now. A demonstration for Ukraine is putting a hat on a hat..they already know. A demonstration for their own people may get some traction but it may also cause blowback. A demonstration for their allies really doesn’t make sense. A demonstration for other nations in Russia sphere…maybe? But again, they kinda blew all that up by screwing up the initial invasion so badly. So out of all of that, maybe doing this for their own people or some weird hope that Ukraine is about to fall and only needs a good push makes sense. So, entire airstrike on Kyiv facilities (there were two independently targeted) seems to be connected to Orban's visit in Moscow. He was first EU leader to do so, and alone it is big deal in Putin's eyes; worth to note that on 1st July Hungary also took its rotational lead in EU. Hungarian PM spread a cable that roughly enumerated his reasons and views and gives some glimps into Putin's brain, even when imperfect and coloured by Orban's own agenda: https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-letter-european-council-charles-michel-vladimir-putin-war-in-ukraine-russia-kremlin/ Orbán wrote, in point eight, that he believed a cease-fire and peace talks were still possible, but added that “in the next two months we will see more dramatic losses and military developments on the frontlines than ever before” if the war doesn’t come to a halt. So what Putin promised, he did basically next day Orban left. Russia has little conventional military options left in reality, so again resort to negotiations by terror; good proven method of kicking to show one's determination- but it isn't sign of desperation, opposite actually. There are naturally also high expectations as to influence of strikes on energy sector and elections in USA. Overal, Kremlin does seem to be pretty confident over last year and sees winter as perhaps deciding period in this war. Btw. worth to read entire letter even autotranslated: https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/17f655b584276917/07ec81ce-full.pdf Putin seems to believe Ukrainiasn take 40-50k casualties a month. Edited July 9 by Beleg85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 hours ago, billbindc said: Just remembered suddenly the guy writing about the old Marine who supposedly dated back to Tet and was now fighting in Ukraine with an apparent ability to discern strategic truths from shrapnel on the North side of a tree and the state of the Russian army by the stains on a mobik's combat smock. Out of curiosity, what ever happened to that fabulist? You can still read about what he's up to, if you like: https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/ He's still there in Ukraine, reportedly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: You can still read about what he's up to, if you like: https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/ He's still there in Ukraine, reportedly. Last post was from almost a year ago. Maybe he simply rode into heaven on a fiery chariot pulled by a couple GMLRS. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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