Battlefront.com Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Fenris said: Have we noted this? (sorry don't know how to do the thread) I wonder how correct this is, anyone else seen this to verify? I think I've seen the commander mentioned before. Yes, we've seen this information before. However, oddly enough there wasn't much commentary about the implications. It was pretty clear that VDV took heavy losses on the western side of Kiev. The distinct VDV vehicles made this easy to see. It was also clear that the unit was repeatedly suffering significant losses in many separate engagements. So much so that I (and others) were prompted to wonder when we'd stop seeing new wrecked BMD-2 based vehicles simply because Ukraine zapped them all. As we've discussed generally, it seems that Russia's best units have taken some of the heaviest % of casualties. I wouldn't be surprised if the 331st lost more than 30% of its personnel and equipment up to this point. Knowing that both the CO and Deputy CO were killed in recent days tells me that estimate is probably not far off. It also tells me that if the remains of the 331st continue to be in the frontline they are not going to be participating in any large scale offensive activities. Maybe they could put together a company sized force, but beyond that they are now static infantry. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 6 hours ago, dan/california said: Ukraine, UNTIL NOW, has been plagued by weak governments that NATO didn't really trust. But Zelensky was doing his best to clean it up before the war. He obviously succeeded beyond all reason in cleaning up the military and intelligence services or we would be two weeks out from Putin's Parade in Kyiv. Post war, If Zelensky is still there and has a country to speak of, he is going to have both the political support at home, and the economic support from abroad to attempt a complete reset. He will be the second coming of George Washington, but with bottomless access to EU money, and technical expertise. It will just be a completely different country two years from now if it exits at all. While I admire Zelensky's balls of steel I think it goes a lot deeper than this. Ukraine's military knew it would have to fight Russia. that sense of urgency I think has motivated the army deeply. I am sure there are still issues, but overall the military has geared up for this fight. Even in the worst case, the withdrawal from Kherson- though disordered and retreating, the Ukrainians did not surrender. I think Zelensky has added to that in the political spectrum and helped forge a level of unity between the nation and the army that Putin couldn't even dream of. I think you are spot on in terms of the opportunity here to take that moment and will power to build a Ukraine too strong for Russia to ever threaten again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: It also tells me that if the remains of the 331st continue to be in the frontline they are not going to be participating in any large scale offensive activities. Maybe they could put together a company sized force, but beyond that they are now static infantry. Steve Or just pallbearers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 hour ago, dan/california said: Speaking of VKontakte, apparently people with connections to the Russian military are connecting the dots about what the parade of funerals foe senior officers means for the rest of their units. Thread above has translated comments. An interesting read, thanks. It includes some further info relating to the losses in the 331st regiment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, akd said: Russia just doesn't seem to understand what they have created. sow the wind, reap the whirlwind 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 4 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said: Nice! Me too - 16 square km of city of Luhansk - shame it's not figured much in this conflict. There's certainly a lot of stuff going on in this conflict to inspire some really interesting scenario and campaign ideas for a long, long time. We should talk.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) double post Edited March 21, 2022 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 I love the laconic ISW descriptions: "The General Staff reported the Russian Black Sea Fleet is replacing 130 insubordinate soldiers in the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade with paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Assault Division – a measure highly likely to cause greater unit cohesion problems". Yah no ****. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSarge Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, sburke said: Russia just doesn't seem to understand what they have created. sow the wind, reap the whirlwind Russia is the dog that caught the bus! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 50 minutes ago, sburke said: While I admire Zelensky's balls of steel I think it goes a lot deeper than this. Ukraine's military knew it would have to fight Russia. that sense of urgency I think has motivated the army deeply. I am sure there are still issues, but overall the military has geared up for this fight. Even in the worst case, the withdrawal from Kherson- though disordered and retreating, the Ukrainians did not surrender. I think Zelensky has added to that in the political spectrum and helped forge a level of unity between the nation and the army that Putin couldn't even dream of. I think you are spot on in terms of the opportunity here to take that moment and will power to build a Ukraine too strong for Russia to ever threaten again. Absolutely the Army played a role. Its push for professionalism, crucially supported and encourged by NATO et all, gacve it the moral and intellectual cachet to improve everything possible. The threat of Russia, and the fact that the UA took it utterly seriously helped motivate others in the political sphere to support them, or at least to not **** with them. Putin leaving the Donbass as a festering wound was intended to undermine and destabilize UKR society - if it allowed itself to be. But the missions of the veterans (both military & civil) of that war gained from the ongoing casualties. They were constant reminders that Russia had not gone away and would return. Nothing concentrates a society's mind like the possibility of political, cultural and military annihilation. Still, as I've said before, Russia handed this current "win" to UKR. It could easily have gone the other way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSarge Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, BletchleyGeek said: Also: a bit of a misnomer. Wouldn't it rather be a "peacemaking" rather than "peacekeeping" mission? Personal opinion of mine: the Polish government at times seems to be to be quite klutz when it comes to apply logic. There isn't a peace to keep ATM. I don't think this idea will sell with the general NATO membership, but leaving the idea on the table might keep a guessing game going on for Minsk and Moscow. I can see some value in Ukraine using it as a bargaining chip in negotiations. Edited March 21, 2022 by OldSarge 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Quote "The Ukrainian General staff reported Ukrainian forces have cut off the fuel and food supplies of Russian forces near Brovary". I'm really curious how Russia will respond. This is logistical kettling, and very Sun Tzu in its concept & execution. Russia doesn't seem to have the reserves to form even localised RRFs, let alone army level. I hope Brovary is repeated in multiple locations and isn't just a once off. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machor Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Belarus seems to be a 'go' - they've got invasion marking: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machor Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) Aaron Stein told what's shooting down the TB2s - are you here? - It's the Su-35: Edited March 21, 2022 by Machor punctuation led to unintended emoji 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machor Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: If I were in charge of establishing Ukrainian counter offensive operations I would do the following: I am interpreting your idea as a 21st century digitized version of the Chinese short attack in the Korean War. Am I way off? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Machor said: I am interpreting your idea as a 21st century digitized version of the Chinese short attack in the Korean War. Am I way off? Sounds right. The key difference is the level of back-forth communication integration up the command and fires chain. My impression is the Chinese attacks in Korea were a very tactical approach, with very limited operational support and at a far remove (in response time) from actual battlefield events. Once the UN forces stabilized their C2 they were able to inflict horrible costs on the Chinese, who didn't really have the heavy units that could take the punishment (or dish it out to prevent the C2 stabilization process in the first place). I think, with Steve's plan, the tactical and operational would operate not quite simultaneously but extremely closely in sequence, made possible by the speed of locating, fixing enemy assets and communicating that up the chain within minutes, not hours. Its the speed of communicating back & forth, with the lighter units at the sharp point being able to implement orders/react on own initiative quicker because they're lighter. That will give UKR the edge. This will allow an attack to kick off in a very sudden manner, overwhelming the Russian response by being immediately and inherently ahead of their operational command decision loop. UKR would be operating off minute increments (5/10/15) while Ivan is waiting a hour for HQ to receive, assimilate, decide & issue orders - which then need to be transmitted down and digested at various levels. But UKR will already be all up n their basez, owningz their spawnz, as the young 'uns say. @Battlefront.com accurate read of your approach? Edited March 21, 2022 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Lots of very interesting "tea leaves" in the latest ISW report. Here's another some others: Quote Russian forces face mounting casualties among officers and increasingly frequent desertion and insubordination. This is consistent with the looting and murdering behavior that's been widely reported. Undisciplined troops tend to be, well, undisciplined. Especially when they think they're going to die. As I've been saying for a couple of weeks now, all the elements for large scale collapse are present. This is just a sign that it's starting to be noticeable to intel services. Speaking of which. One of the many problems Russia and Ukraine have with each other is the number of people on each side that are spying for the other. I think if the Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) is sharing with us is true and there's a lot more that they know which they don't want to leak yet. Quote The Ukrainian MoD reported that forced mobilization in the DNR has demoralized Russian proxy forces, with many refusing to fight and accusing Russian leadership of forcing them into combat to find Ukrainian troop positions. This seems to explain why Chechens have been diverted to the DLPR front instead of being concentrated in Mariupol or Kiev. The Chechens seem to have the sort of bravado, alpha male thing that makes them think they will succeed where others have failed. We'll see what happens to them after they get bloodied. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) Latest Jomini of the West update (mostly for the maps): Edited March 21, 2022 by akd 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kinophile said: I think, with Steve's plan, the tactical and operational would operate not quite simultaneously but extremely closely in sequence, made possible by the speed of locating, fixing enemy assets and communicating that up the chain within minutes, not hours. Its the speed of communicating back & forth, with the lighter units at the sharp point being able to implement orders/react on own initiative quicker because they're lighter. That will give UKR the edge. Yes, that's it exactly. The key factor to success is the low morale of the Russian forces. A unit with high morale might put up a fight under adverse conditions, but a low morale unit that has no faith or communications with its parent unit? Ripe for panic. The concept I've outlined relies upon this more than anything else. Think about it. When an individual soldier, who is scared and disillusioned with the war around him, has twigs snapping and dirt flying from small arms fire coming from a direction he isn't expecting... do you think he's going to say to himself, "well, it's just light infantry. No tanks, no fear!" or do you think he's going to think "I'm going to die here, tank or no tank, unless I surrender/run"? There is no way dug in Russians will put up the sort of fight that proved so costly to attacking US forces in both WW2 Pacific or Vietnam. Those situations required massive amounts of firepower to keep friendly casualties low. I don't see the Ukrainians having to do more than spray a bunch of small arms fire to get a positive result. But not just yet. I don't think we've arrived at this point. Close, but not quite there yet. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Even a cursory reading of northern Ukraine/Belarus maps shows the railway spine goes EAST-WEST, Poland to Kiev. Not good for Belarus (I'm assuming it has the same logistical underpinnings as the Russian Army). Belarus will probably need to attack close to the main Russian effort west of Kiev - better rail net available. But still, that is some bad country to be fighting across, against a ready, prepared, well supplied and very angry defense force. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, Kinophile said: But UKR will already be all up n their basez, owningz their spawnz, as the young 'uns sa All your base are belong to us. The above is actually 30 years old originally but got wide spread use with the second Gulf War. You don't have to be that young. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 The Lukashenko's army doesn't have any underpinnings, they haven't bought a new piece of equipment since 1989. I doubt their maintenance practices are much better than the Russians either. To the extent the have done, or been trained for anything it was as backup riot police. They don't like Lukashenko because he let the Russians in and made them second class citizens, among many other reasons. If they make make it over the border, which I would not by any means guarantee, I predict the biggest problem they cause the Ukrainians is having to build a bunch of POW camps, and then keeping them from sneaking into Poland. Since it would be an unambiguous act of war it would also let the Ukrainian special forces go after the road and rail network in Belarus like they mean it. It manages the considerable feat of being a worse idea than the rest of this so called campaign. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, dan/california said: It manages the considerable feat of being a worse idea than the rest of this so called campaign. Just when the ideas couldn't get any worse, Putin...along you come with another one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing 88's Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) R'oh.... this smell's funny, no pun. ELINT News @ELINTNews · 37m #UPDATE: Governor of Sumy in eastern Ukraine reports a ammonia leak at the Pat Sumykhimprom chemical plant as clashes continue in the area. The affected area is 5km wide and is classed as dangerous due to the leak Edited March 21, 2022 by Blazing 88's 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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