Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, acrashb said:

A well-regarded benchmark is 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore the… - Transparency.org (congrats to Denmark Finland, and New Zealand!).

Ukraine at #122 is at least somewhat comparable to Russia at #136.  it will be interesting after the war to understand why Russia's corruption has so hobbled their efforts while Ukraine's has not, or at least not so visibly.  Also, corruption in Ukraine has been gradually trending better since 2014, roughly the moment Russia's influence was curtailed, and if this trend holds or more likely accelerates - assuming Zelensky is interested in anti-corruption he'll have tremendous influence after the war - it could reach European norms in a relatively short time.

An interesting anecdote regarding corruption in the Ukraine: some time ago I was going to return a camera lens to a Ukrainian manufacturer for service.  I was told flatly to _not_ insure the lens (would have been slightly under two thousand dollars worth) because any package so marked would be held by customs until the recipient paid a bribe.  So I chose not to get the lens serviced, too much risk sending it uninsured.

Oh Dear a little off-topic  - I'm not sure how much value I'd place in metrics like that considering I'm a New Zealander and know of quite a lot of what would appear to be dicey stuff going on over the last few decades  . If you are rich the NZ government is more than happy to sell you a passport . You have the utterly repulsive Peter Thiel as a prime example of that . I'm sure day 2 day for the average Citizen corruption is  hardly anything you'll encounter in NZ - but  at the top end of the spectrum  the place is just as corrupt as anywhere else - Money Talks/ Screams  as it does everywhere .

Edited by keas66
spelling
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, acrashb said:

A well-regarded benchmark is 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore the… - Transparency.org (congrats to Denmark Finland, and New Zealand!).

Ukraine at #122 is at least somewhat comparable to Russia at #136.  it will be interesting after the war to understand why Russia's corruption has so hobbled their efforts while Ukraine's has not, or at least not so visibly.  Also, corruption in Ukraine has been gradually trending better since 2014, roughly the moment Russia's influence was curtailed, and if this trend holds or more likely accelerates - assuming Zelensky is interested in anti-corruption he'll have tremendous influence after the war - it could reach European norms in a relatively short time.

An interesting anecdote regarding corruption in the Ukraine: some time ago I was going to return a camera lens to a Ukrainian manufacturer for service.  I was told flatly to _not_ insure the lens (would have been slightly under two thousand dollars worth) because any package so marked would be held by customs until the recipient paid a bribe.  So I chose not to get the lens serviced, too much risk sending it uninsured.

Ukraine, UNTIL NOW, has been plagued by weak governments that NATO didn't really trust. But Zelensky was doing his best to clean it up before the war. He obviously succeeded beyond all reason in cleaning up the military and intelligence services or we would be two weeks out from Putin's Parade in Kyiv. Post war, If Zelensky is still there and has a country to speak of, he is going to have both the political support at home, and the economic support from abroad to attempt a complete reset. He will be the second coming of George Washington, but with bottomless access to EU money, and technical expertise. It will just be a completely different  country two years from now if it exits at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Russians activated on NW and W directions from Kyiv after three days of relative lull. 

They are trying again to cross Irpin' river in it narrowest place near Moshchun village, also they shifted some accents to the north and now shell and atatck our positions near Liutizh village (the place of Liutizh bridgehead in 1943) - this is in 12 km from northern city limit. Some clases reported also around Bucha and Irpin'

Russian troops conducted some acrions NW from the Makariv - Borodianka line, there is knowingly about airstrike on Zabuyannia village in 15 km NW from Makariv, which controls UKR troops. 

Here the video of next attempt to cross Irpin' river

 

Edited by Haiduk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast (under LPR control since 2014). Local twitter account reports that large column of 30 vehcicles vehcicles, mostly trucks with Chechen flags passed the city. "V" marking on vehciles. Looks like part of Kadyrov's troops were moved from Kyiv direction to reinforce LPR and Russian troops in the battle for Rubizhne - Siverodonetsk - Lysychansk agglomeration

Зображення

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast (under LPR control since 2014). Local twitter account reports that large column of 30 vehcicles vehcicles, mostly trucks with Chechen flags passed the city. "V" marking on vehciles. Looks like part of Kadyrov's troops were moved from Kyiv direction to reinforce LPR and Russian troops in the battle for Rubizhne - Siverodonetsk - Lysychansk agglomeration

Зображення

So are they attacking towards Kiev or moving out?  Do you have any idea?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The floodgate between Kyiv reservoir and Irpin' river is open (or blew up?) The water gradually fill the valley of the river. Here is a map of flooding on 18th of March. The "big water" doesn't come yet to Hostomel area, where Russians can cross narrow part of the river

  Зображення

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I've posted two or three days ago a list of our mayor+ losses. Mostly pilots. 

Pilots, sure.

But infantry officer losses would give us a good indication of actually UKR mudhumper losses as well as how "forward" middle tier officers are.

Where should we start?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Steppenwulf said:

What idea? For a CM campaign?

Yah, I'd a mini UKR campaign in progress about, jeez, two years ago, but life etc rather rudely interfered*. It revolved around a UKR battalion attempting to escape encirclement in the initial CMBS campaign senario. Very large maps, a LOT of Russian arty, most maps played in media res, rather than set pieces. 

*He's adorable but refuses to apologize. Ungrateful tyke!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com I'm going to have a stab at your idea... I've already a partial UKR Campaign that I'm now revisiting so this could be a really interesting 2-3 parter climax.

 

Cool!  Let us know how it goes.

The primary premise of my counter attack scenario is that the Russians aren't going to respond well to being shot at from the rear.  Soldiers don't tend to like this under any circumstances, but ones that are not happy with their lot in life tend to be even less so.

The overall concept is to kick enough Russians in the teeth in enough places that word gets around and further erodes the will to fight.  Collapse is not that far away from that point.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yah, I'd a mini UKR campaign in progress about, jeez, two years ago, but life etc rather rudely interfered

 

Nice! Me too - 16 square km of city of Luhansk - shame it's not figured much in this conflict.

There's certainly a lot of stuff going on in this conflict to inspire some really interesting scenario and campaign ideas for a long, long time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Pilots, sure.

But infantry officer losses would give us a good indication of actually UKR mudhumper losses as well as how "forward" middle tier officers are.

Where should we start?

I know about the death in the combat in Luhansk oblast of colonel Valeriy Gudz', I don't know his duty, until 2020 he was a commander of 24th mech.brigade. He was lost 13th of March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/20/ukraine-russian-generals-patraeus-sotu-vpx.cnn

Now, it's CNN, so yes, their idea of accurate is two inbred cousins away from the Russians, but it's Petraeus so worth a listen. 

Of course the standing bobble head babbling at him could be entirely cut out.

That numbnuts also thinks it's snipers taking them out, but I believe the majority have been arty strikes or SOF decapitation ops, correct?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...