How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

here has been a fair amount of evidence from this war that senior Russian flight officers fly MORE than their juniors, simply because the juniors have never gotten the flight hours to be competent.

 

Like this guy, he is a fat forty odd if he is a day, and the Russians had him flying combat missions until his number came up. My read is that they do this because once upon a time he went through a real training program that Russia is to broke, corrupt, and incompetent to run any more. In the U.S. a guy like this would naturally rotate out to some sort flight instructor position, probably as a contractor with that waist line. But that is because we HAVE real training programs.

As I said previously, “Not Necessarily,” which means that your statement might be accurate, but that it could also be “coincidence.” You are correct in the length of time it takes to train a pilot. For example, the initial flight training for fixed wing airplanes is about six months. I don’t know if rotorcraft pilots go through that initial fixed wing training, but the rotorcraft pilot goes through two years of training before being posted to a “combat capable” Squadron. That is why I say it is possible (also in my estimation probable) that the loss of the Col. was because of, but not necessarily due to lack qualified/trained pilots.

[dan/california]

Whereas Russian morale...they don't have any.

[dan/california]

Ukrainian counter battery advantage is just grinding the Russian artillery out of existence.

[dan/california]

Dmitri is on it today, and the The U,S. should have started shipping cluster munitions a year ago. We ought to start shipping M26 rockets TODAY. The deletion of a few grid squares is exactly what Ukraine needs to move the offensive along.

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

This concludes my twitter crawl for the day.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Haiduk]

UKR troops after conducting stabilizing actions on Borova direction could more push back Russians to the east. Villages Nadiya and Novoyehorivka came to grey zone (other info says UKR controlled these villages again). Indeed all three captured villages are very small per 50-100 inhabitants (pre-war info). Red dotted lines mark maximal Russian incursion on 24th of July (DeepState depeicted even worse situation, but it was recognized wrong and unconfirmed)

Here is a story from Russian side, from participant of 15th motor-rifle brigade, how developed their offensive from 20 to 24th of July, when Russians achieved most success on this direction.

In Russian news recent tactical success of Russian army is known as "Karmazinovka offensive", though main strike was conducted from Kovaliovka village, which almost merge with Karmazinovka, but situates some to north on the bank the same Zherebets river.  Units of 2nd CAA of Central military district since October 2022 settled defense positions along Zerebets river. The river itself lіes in lowland on 100 m above sea level. Estern bank, which we seized has heights 150-160 m above sea level, the western bank, where the enemy has 160-170 m. All terrain is represented with fields of winter crops and sunfloweres with rare tree-lines on our side and the same fields with small forests from the enemy side. Zherebets river is several meters in wide only and in many places you can ford it. But banks of the river are soft and muddy on dozen meters in both directions and impassable for vehicles without engineer preparations.

Defense line from Raihorodka to Karmazinovka seized 15th motor-riflre brigade of 2nd CAA, Central military district [this is so-called "peacemaking brigade", which in 2014-2015 fought on Donbas with blue UN colors. Brigade has BTR-82A, some BTR-80 and MTLB and unclear T-72 modification]. Our troops expecting enemy attack dug in up to eyes, except dragon teeth and usual mines, we deployed chech hedgegogs and radio-controlled IEDs. 

At the beginning of July the "Storm" unit of our brigade conducted reconnaissance in force with support of our recons. As a result of several days fighting we could capture small forest west from Karmazinovka, where except our "Srorm" operated "Storm" unit of 21st motor-rifle brigade [I supopse, author is wrong, because 21st brigade fought further to the south in Ploshchanka village area]. Losses of our stormers were serious, especially "Shtorm-Z" [convicts] company of "Storm" unit is suffered. This company was almost totaly wiped out with mortar fire. Most of victims were wounded, bud it had also many dead enough. After this the enemy tried to counter attack twice to recapture the lost ground, but they failed. Both times they attacked during the rain. 

At last on 20th of July general assault began by forces of motor-rifle battalions of our brigade. Artilley barrages began at 3:00 of night. Grads, barrels 152 mm, tanks with semi-direct fire, mortars, but most importanty - TOS-1! All artillery had been working up to mid of the day. On next day dawn assault groups of our infantry had beenn moving forward, they crossed the river with it swampy banks on foot, carring the weapon over the head. Assault was pure infantry, because all bridges were destroyed and all fords, suitable for vehicles were mined as far as in past autumn. 

For first day we have advanced on 2,5-3 km from our positions. Two enemy mortars, which stand in front of our way were supressed as far as at the morning. Resty of enemy artillery by unknown reason kept silence. Beacause of this we had small losses, mosly by booby-traps and machine-gun fire. In the places, where the enemy snapped, we were withdrawing and their position were shelling with tanks and mortars. The fire ajusted with quadcopters. This was continuing continuing endless. One enemy unit still resists fiercely despite our shellings, so we decided to bypass it, lefting this problem for later.

Enemy, of course, tried to pull reserves, but first group on pick-ups was disassembled by our tank. The second group we already expected - as their infantry dismounted from BMP, they got mortar fire and were eliminated, alas BMPs had time to flee.

Next day intanse shower began. This caused problems to our infantry, who was under open sky and for our drone teams, which can'r fly to adjust fire. First day brough us dozens of captured. Ememy also lost many killed. Several his grops were spotted fleeng to west. One time we spotted even whole platoon in 18 men, but couldn't reach them. 

Next day we continued our advance, though several men couldn't stand the stress and "enlisted to 500th" [unauthorized abandoning the unit] - they returned back to our start positions. One our wounded squd leader lost own radio, but this didn't have any consequences, because it has only one frequency of his company. We again, using the quadcopters cought enemy reserve and destroyed it with tank fire. To the mid of day we overcame 4 km. Company commanders reported about reached lines. 

The same enemy group, which turned out in our rear,  we offered to surrender, but they rejected, so we drop on them dozen 120 mm mortar shells, them came on their position and shot out remained wounded in order they not to suffer.

Bridgehead was seized. The work of moles [sappers] has started of mineclearing and setting the crosses through the river. To forward lined moved ammo and food, to the rear - POWs, tophies and wounded. In companies of our battalion were about dozed wounded in each. Killed either weren't at once, or just several men. Among trophies were pick-ups, several AGS, equipment, ammo, radios etc. Artillery of the enemy started to work only in the mid of the day. It worked mostly on roads and crossings. This was unpleasnantly, but didn't play any significant role. 

On next day throug the new crossings new fresg battalion of our brigade came - they already had armor, including tanks. Infantry of the second battalion came to reinforce the first battalions, which advance some stalled near Raihorodka. We continues to move forward, relying on tank and artilelry support under eyes of our quadcopters. 

On this moment we enetered to Novoyegorovka, strange village - it present on maps, but there no houses here. Interaction between two our batatlions allowed us to breach enemy strongpoint near Raihorodka and approach to Nadiya village. So in this time [24-25th of July] we control three villages - Nadiya, Novoyegorovka and Sergeevka in the middle. 

The cause of our success became surprise factor. The eneny knew about assault, but though only "Storm" units would be participate as usual. But we launched attack on wide front and they couldn't maintain support by reserves - it's turned out they just didn't have it. All other likely went to Bakhmut and to Zaporozhye. I told my opinion that "Shtorm" units are only for harassing actions and alignment of frontline, but when it will be need all infantry will go forward simultainously.  And yes, mobilized soldiers also went to the battle and fought not worse than contractors and voluntreers. 

Exellent showed themselves the chain quadcopters - mortars - tanks. Drone operators were experienced, crews of tanks and mortars too. Infantry got some experience as far as in autumn clashes. The radio communication, built on "Combats" and "Motorolas" didn't fail, as well as commanders and HQs. We did all as in field manual - came, kill them all and took bridgehead. Many soldiers didn't believe in such success, taking into account negative experience of past. 

Konstantin Mashovets, commenting developments of this axis told next things:

- significant enemy advantage in artillery and amount of ammunition, collected here for long time

- Russians have enough reserves here to reionforce own efforts

- Russians had better level of combat control over own units, than UKR side, represented mostly with units of 66th mech.brigade. According to words of our soldiers from there, our defense system was saved by the miracle and timely samrt decisions of battalion-company level commanders.

- very weak battlefield AD of brigade. Not only Russian fixed-wing drones, but usual copters felt free in the air and allowed the enemy to adjust fire without problems.

 

   

[Kinophile]

 

[dan/california]

52 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

source?

[Vanir Ausf B]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

source?

https://time.com/6294670/us-strategy-ukraine-prioritizing-asia/

Caption reads "A M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on the Bakhmut direction on May 18, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine."

[kevinkin]

What provides a better defensive position:

Hardened village

Dug in trench lines in grain fields

Or a combination of the two?

I think trench lines offer better overall survivability. Especially if they can't be hidden and not easy to spot from outer space. Villages are static targets. Hedgehogs for sure. But I would defend ground in a more flexible manner where the enemy can't discern where you are and use ambush tactics to delay and attrite the attacking force.

Many don't think the RA is capable of this. I am not convinced. Many are using stereotypical analysis that the RA are incompetent barbarians. They are prejudging future results based on the past. If the US thinks they can attrite Russia using Ukraine as a proxy, they are the incompetent barbarians. If the US thinks the UA can be taught western operational concepts in a period of mouths, they are delusional.  If the US is just is just throwing the dice, hoping for the best and a Russian collapse, I want my taxes back.

If the UA is on the verge of a breakthrough - surge NATO surge. Let's stopping being so cruel to Ukraine. If this becomes a analogy of NK vs SK, please acknowledge those that predicted it a over the winter. There will be no winner or loser, just an uneasy peace and another Cold War. Much to NATO's and Ukraine's disadvantage. But the three martini lunch will prevail in DC.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by kevinkin

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR troops after conducting stabilizing actions on Borova direction could more push back Russians to the east. Villages Nadiya and Novoyehorivka came to grey zone (other info says UKR controlled these villages again). Indeed all three captured villages are very small per 50-100 inhabitants (pre-war info). Red dotted lines mark maximal Russian incursion on 24th of July (DeepState depeicted even worse situation, but it was recognized wrong and unconfirmed)

Here is a story from Russian side, from participant of 15th motor-rifle brigade, how developed their offensive from 20 to 24th of July, when Russians achieved most success on this direction.

In Russian news recent tactical success of Russian army is known as "Karmazinovka offensive", though main strike was conducted from Kovaliovka village, which almost merge with Karmazinovka, but situates some to north on the bank the same Zherebets river.  Units of 2nd CAA of Central military district since October 2022 settled defense positions along Zerebets river. The river itself lіes in lowland on 100 m above sea level. Estern bank, which we seized has heights 150-160 m above sea level, the western bank, where the enemy has 160-170 m. All terrain is represented with fields of winter crops and sunfloweres with rare tree-lines on our side and the same fields with small forests from the enemy side. Zherebets river is several meters in wide only and in many places you can ford it. But banks of the river are soft and muddy on dozen meters in both directions and impassable for vehicles without engineer preparations.

Defense line from Raihorodka to Karmazinovka seized 15th motor-riflre brigade of 2nd CAA, Central military district [this is so-called "peacemaking brigade", which in 2014-2015 fought on Donbas with blue UN colors. Brigade has BTR-82A, some BTR-80 and MTLB and unclear T-72 modification]. Our troops expecting enemy attack dug in up to eyes, except dragon teeth and usual mines, we deployed chech hedgegogs and radio-controlled IEDs. 

At the beginning of July the "Storm" unit of our brigade conducted reconnaissance in force with support of our recons. As a result of several days fighting we could capture small forest west from Karmazinovka, where except our "Srorm" operated "Storm" unit of 21st motor-rifle brigade [I supopse, author is wrong, because 21st brigade fought further to the south in Ploshchanka village area]. Losses of our stormers were serious, especially "Shtorm-Z" [convicts] company of "Storm" unit is suffered. This company was almost totaly wiped out with mortar fire. Most of victims were wounded, bud it had also many dead enough. After this the enemy tried to counter attack twice to recapture the lost ground, but they failed. Both times they attacked during the rain. 

At last on 20th of July general assault began by forces of motor-rifle battalions of our brigade. Artilley barrages began at 3:00 of night. Grads, barrels 152 mm, tanks with semi-direct fire, mortars, but most importanty - TOS-1! All artillery had been working up to mid of the day. On next day dawn assault groups of our infantry had beenn moving forward, they crossed the river with it swampy banks on foot, carring the weapon over the head. Assault was pure infantry, because all bridges were destroyed and all fords, suitable for vehicles were mined as far as in past autumn. 

For first day we have advanced on 2,5-3 km from our positions. Two enemy mortars, which stand in front of our way were supressed as far as at the morning. Resty of enemy artillery by unknown reason kept silence. Beacause of this we had small losses, mosly by booby-traps and machine-gun fire. In the places, where the enemy snapped, we were withdrawing and their position were shelling with tanks and mortars. The fire ajusted with quadcopters. This was continuing continuing endless. One enemy unit still resists fiercely despite our shellings, so we decided to bypass it, lefting this problem for later.

Enemy, of course, tried to pull reserves, but first group on pick-ups was disassembled by our tank. The second group we already expected - as their infantry dismounted from BMP, they got mortar fire and were eliminated, alas BMPs had time to flee.

Next day intanse shower began. This caused problems to our infantry, who was under open sky and for our drone teams, which can'r fly to adjust fire. First day brough us dozens of captured. Ememy also lost many killed. Several his grops were spotted fleeng to west. One time we spotted even whole platoon in 18 men, but couldn't reach them. 

Next day we continued our advance, though several men couldn't stand the stress and "enlisted to 500th" [unauthorized abandoning the unit] - they returned back to our start positions. One our wounded squd leader lost own radio, but this didn't have any consequences, because it has only one frequency of his company. We again, using the quadcopters cought enemy reserve and destroyed it with tank fire. To the mid of day we overcame 4 km. Company commanders reported about reached lines. 

The same enemy group, which turned out in our rear,  we offered to surrender, but they rejected, so we drop on them dozen 120 mm mortar shells, them came on their position and shot out remained wounded in order they not to suffer.

Bridgehead was seized. The work of moles [sappers] has started of mineclearing and setting the crosses through the river. To forward lined moved ammo and food, to the rear - POWs, tophies and wounded. In companies of our battalion were about dozed wounded in each. Killed either weren't at once, or just several men. Among trophies were pick-ups, several AGS, equipment, ammo, radios etc. Artillery of the enemy started to work only in the mid of the day. It worked mostly on roads and crossings. This was unpleasnantly, but didn't play any significant role. 

On next day throug the new crossings new fresg battalion of our brigade came - they already had armor, including tanks. Infantry of the second battalion came to reinforce the first battalions, which advance some stalled near Raihorodka. We continues to move forward, relying on tank and artilelry support under eyes of our quadcopters. 

On this moment we enetered to Novoyegorovka, strange village - it present on maps, but there no houses here. Interaction between two our batatlions allowed us to breach enemy strongpoint near Raihorodka and approach to Nadiya village. So in this time [24-25th of July] we control three villages - Nadiya, Novoyegorovka and Sergeevka in the middle. 

The cause of our success became surprise factor. The eneny knew about assault, but though only "Storm" units would be participate as usual. But we launched attack on wide front and they couldn't maintain support by reserves - it's turned out they just didn't have it. All other likely went to Bakhmut and to Zaporozhye. I told my opinion that "Shtorm" units are only for harassing actions and alignment of frontline, but when it will be need all infantry will go forward simultainously.  And yes, mobilized soldiers also went to the battle and fought not worse than contractors and voluntreers. 

Exellent showed themselves the chain quadcopters - mortars - tanks. Drone operators were experienced, crews of tanks and mortars too. Infantry got some experience as far as in autumn clashes. The radio communication, built on "Combats" and "Motorolas" didn't fail, as well as commanders and HQs. We did all as in field manual - came, kill them all and took bridgehead. Many soldiers didn't believe in such success, taking into account negative experience of past. 

Konstantin Mashovets, commenting developments of this axis told next things:

- significant enemy advantage in artillery and amount of ammunition, collected here for long time

- Russians have enough reserves here to reionforce own efforts

- Russians had better level of combat control over own units, than UKR side, represented mostly with units of 66th mech.brigade. According to words of our soldiers from there, our defense system was saved by the miracle and timely samrt decisions of battalion-company level commanders.

- very weak battlefield AD of brigade. Not only Russian fixed-wing drones, but usual copters felt free in the air and allowed the enemy to adjust fire without problems.

 

   

If you read that account carefully, the UKR drone work was very weak. Russian was nothing special but unimpeded. Other UKR Counter attack accounts note intense UKR drone work and consequent Russian tactical defeats,  stacking up to local failures and retreats.

Victory goes to the side with better drone work. 

[Kinophile]

https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-double-the-size-of-its-military-in-response-to-security-threat/

[Teufel]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

what?  this level of pessimism isn't warranted yet. in fact most signs are pointing to this war becoming more and more a problem for the russian state.  Patience.

 

5 hours ago, Splinty said:

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

Well said and needs reminding! About the same time last year there was frustration growing over the lack of progress. Not much territorial progress until September and October, and the rest is history. We can argue back and forth about elements of surprise, conditions and defensive lines etc.

If it’s one thing we know for sure is that Russians are not very happy right now. Read any of the military bloggers or Telegrams right now, Murz yesterday being perfect example. The northern offensive is nothing more than attempt to draw attention away from what is unfolding in the south. Please do keep in mind that we are all useful idiots when we start to echo Russian propaganda.

100,000 troops up north! The Russians are coming! What is the General Staff of Ukraine waiting for?!

Seriously, are we that naive? Russians keep 100,000 men in reserve up north but don’t rotate them across the front (as per Murz et al. yesterday). Hmm, interesting! Either the Russians have fooled us all to underestimate their assets, or they are lying. You be the judges of each probability.

The Russians are importing shells from North Korea but have 100,000 troops armed to their teeth up north. Oh, really?! Soon we’ll be hearing about them having deployed the indestructible almighty T-14 Armata with those troops also. No wait! They also have the impossible to stop Kinzal missiles with them! Everyone take cover, we are in real trouble now!

In reality, this is nothing more than Russians doing their “little masquerade” aka maskirovka. They do not have the manpower nor resources to take back what they lost this year, less last year. I apologize for the rant but people, please start reading what the other side is saying. They are talking about the development as watching train crash unfold in slow motion. Anecdotal evidence of the opposite doesn’t change the reality of unfolding events. Either they are doing their best to fool us all into thinking they are losing, ”haha, we fooled them all and now for the element of surprise!”. Or they are really just frustrated and angry at their own inability to stop what is unfolding.

The credit goes to the Ukrainians in this situation, they are as good as the Russians at this Sovjet bull****. They’ve done remarkable job from day one by countering any propaganda with sarcasm and humor. Which has worked remarkably well btw.

If this offense is going according to plan or better, would the Ukrainians tell the World that? Aw Lawd! What if the Russians hear about it?!

As discussed yesterday - Tokmak, Polohy, or Zachativka. Not all of them but the Ukrainians need to take one of them and we got ourselves Russians in sh*t and not arms to their teeth.

One last thing, let me whisper this so they don’t hear - “the Russians know this”! Oh they know! They know but are deploying 100,000 strong up north to prevent such crippling blows in the south.

Edit: PS! If anybody is of the opinion that I am full of sh*t - please PM me. I have a bridge to sell you!

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Teufel

[Offshoot]

Video on the modification and use of artillery technicals. Closed captions passable

 

[kevinkin]

Thank the lord someone has balls:

https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-drones-damage-two-moscow-buildings-no-victims-mayor-e619c5ee

[sburke]

Putin says Russia withdrew army from Kyiv because it was "asked" (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

At a meeting with African leaders, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has said that Russia withdrew its army from Kyiv last year because it was "asked to do so to create conditions" for signing a peace treaty.

Quote: "Essentially, a draft of this [peace – ed.] agreement was agreed upon. But after the withdrawal of our troops from near Kyiv, which we were asked to do to create conditions for the conclusion of the final agreement, the Kyiv authorities rejected all previous agreements."

 

[dan/california]

https://features.csis.org/preparing-the-US-industrial-base-to-deter-conflict-with-China/

We have to pour some concrete get serious about this folks.

 

[sburke]

South Africa’s stance on Russia puzzles many. Could a mine in the desert hold answers? (yahoo.com)

To many observers, South Africa’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine is puzzling.

While the country professes to be “non-aligned,” Western diplomats and policy experts point to a series of actions that they say proves otherwise.

Their list is long: South Africa abstaining from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations; hosting war games with the Russian Navy; repeatedly, and publicly, criticizing the United States; and even, allegedly loading weapons and ammunition onto a sanctioned Russian cargo ship.

This week, while many African leaders stay away, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is attending a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg along with key ministers.

The ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa has historic ties to the former Soviet Union, but that ideological legacy can generally only go so far.

Usually, money talks. And the United States’ and European Union’s trade and aid relationship with South Africa vastly outstrips the Russian Federation’s relatively meager contribution.

So, why is South Africa putting this important relationship at risk? Non-profit investigators at the AmaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism and anti-corruption activists are looking for answers in an unusual place: the Kalahari Desert.

 

 

[dan/california]

What was it you said a while back? No need to answer the South African governments calls and say no rudely, just route them straight to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Edited July 30, 2023 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

 

[Teufel]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

South Africa’s stance on Russia puzzles many. Could a mine in the desert hold answers? (yahoo.com)

To many observers, South Africa’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine is puzzling.

While the country professes to be “non-aligned,” Western diplomats and policy experts point to a series of actions that they say proves otherwise.

Their list is long: South Africa abstaining from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations; hosting war games with the Russian Navy; repeatedly, and publicly, criticizing the United States; and even, allegedly loading weapons and ammunition onto a sanctioned Russian cargo ship.

This week, while many African leaders stay away, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is attending a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg along with key ministers.

The ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa has historic ties to the former Soviet Union, but that ideological legacy can generally only go so far.

Usually, money talks. And the United States’ and European Union’s trade and aid relationship with South Africa vastly outstrips the Russian Federation’s relatively meager contribution.

So, why is South Africa putting this important relationship at risk? Non-profit investigators at the AmaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism and anti-corruption activists are looking for answers in an unusual place: the Kalahari Desert.

If there is one thing that binds Russia and most African leaders, not exclusively South Africa, is their mafia state operations. Al Jazeera made great investigative series on the state capture of South Africa by the Guptas, with gold mafia as middlemen. It’s long story, se details in the link below.

Putin is no different, giving out loans that are stolen by individuals in power, building nuclear power plant and mining uranium at mines owned by the son of former president Jacob Zuma. Plant that is way more expensive than anything the South Africans could have invested in per produced GWh.

No rational reason to accept these investments other than money to line the pockets of those at the top and their families. State capture 2.0 coming up in newspapers near you.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/4/14/gold-mafia-helped-gupta-brothers-in-south-africa-state-capture

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

Edit: changed post due to subscription needed, print screens end up bigger than max size attachable. Anyhow, news of Russian corporate HR and employment benefits.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Teufel

[Seedorf81]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

Whereas Russian morale...they don't have any.

 

Well, I'm not even a half-heavy drinker, but if I had to be an ordinary soldier in the Russian army, I'd probably try to be drunk 24/7, too.