How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Yet said:

this running out of shells for defence + long mud season doesnt sound in RU favor at all. It is that much harder to get supplies in, to rotate personal or to make any tactical changes to the 'operational design'.

There is corrosion till you can break it and corrosion till it falls apart by itself.

Russia can't run out of missiles fast enough, that's for sure.  Another terror strike killing innocent civilians in Kherson:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3787645-zelensky-condemns-russia-as-absolute-evil-after-deadly-christmas-eve-strikes-on-kherson/

Here's an irony.  According to Russian law, the Russian military just deliberately killed Russian citizens.  Y'know, because Kherson is part of Russia and people there received Russian passports.  Not that this surprises anybody in the West, but I bet almost nobody in Russia is thinking about it this way.

Steve

[Grossman]

Long threads on Carlson. Give a guy enough rope, and they self-detonate, as Carlson will do. The UKR fight has overwhelming pubic support in the US (one always has a vocal 10% in opposition to anything). The GOP will be focused entirely on 2024 election; it simply will not hold up supplies to Ukraine. End of story. What the time line means is that the UKR want to finish this war in 2 years, probably next year 2023. The shear scale of munitions involved means it cannot go on for 4 more years. And UKR is not going to give up. 

What is intriguing me at the moment is, who blew up the Nordstream pipelines? The Russians were using gas as a weapon, leverage against the Germans principally. And one has to remember that Nordstream could supply 40% of German needs, and that German industry is built on Russian gas. One country or countries decided to cut that leverage by blowing up the pipelines, thus forcing Germany to give up any hope off rapprochement with Russia, forcing it to rebalance its industry. It happened on September 26. The Kerch Bridge explosion happened on Oct 8.

My guest its was a combo operation, Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. The Post reports there is nothing conclusive. Not surprising. 

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't like the way Congress goes right to the deadline, and often PAST it, every year.  If I were in control of the rules, I wouldn't let any of them go home until a budget is presented, debated for at least several weeks, then voted on with enough time leftover to try again if the first vote fails.  But that's not relevant to this thread and is, for obvious reasons, best left out of it.  Which is why I didn't bring it up in the first place.

Steve

When I was working with my old employer, we'd do our yearly budget in June/July.  It started slipping.  Talked to my old teammate yesterday.  Their budget this year is still not in.    Seems it isn't just a gov't issue.

As to the US budget, that is because it is such a political football and the only thing that gets them to even get it done is the important folks know that a default would be disastrous for the country.

As to calling Tucker a RINO... well I am not so sure of that.  Citing Reagan as representative of GOP politics doesn't seem relevant anymore.  You are talking 40 years ago. 

Enough though.  Zelensky speaking before a joint session with multiple standing ovations from both sides of the aisle says what needs to be said for US commitment.  The WP article I cited before has an interesting review of the weapons the US has supplied, why and when.   another tidbit from that article.

Quote

 

“A conventional war … is an industrial war,” said Seth Jones, a former adviser to U.S. Special Forces who now heads the International Security Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). There are “serious challenges” to current supplies in the U.S. arsenal, he said. “We are really low … and we’re not even fighting.”

An upcoming CSIS report on American readiness, Jones said, concludes that “the U.S. defense industrial base is in pretty poor shape right now. If you identify China as the ‘pacing’ threat, and an ‘acute’ threat from Russia, we don’t make it past four or five days in a war game before we run out of precision missiles.”

 

 

[Simcoe]

32 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Long threads on Carlson. Give a guy enough rope, and they self-detonate, as Carlson will do. The UKR fight has overwhelming pubic support in the US (one always has a vocal 10% in opposition to anything). The GOP will be focused entirely on 2024 election; it simply will not hold up supplies to Ukraine. End of story. What the time line means is that the UKR want to finish this war in 2 years, probably next year 2023. The shear scale of munitions involved means it cannot go on for 4 more years. And UKR is not going to give up. 

What is intriguing me at the moment is, who blew up the Nordstream pipelines? The Russians were using gas as a weapon, leverage against the Germans principally. And one has to remember that Nordstream could supply 40% of German needs, and that German industry is built on Russian gas. One country or countries decided to cut that leverage by blowing up the pipelines, thus forcing Germany to give up any hope off rapprochement with Russia, forcing it to rebalance its industry. It happened on September 26. The Kerch Bridge explosion happened on Oct 8.

My guest its was a combo operation, Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. The Post reports there is nothing conclusive. Not surprising. 

Totally agree. Why would Russia destroy their pipeline? All they need to do is reduce the flow and make up an excuse. 

This has CIA work written all over it.

[Zeleban]

52 minutes ago, Grossman said:

My guest its was a combo operation, Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. The Post reports there is nothing conclusive. Not surprising. 

 

Wow, and what kind of equipment do you think was used in this case? Combat submarines, divers with explosives, specially trained dolphins?

Edited December 24, 2022 by Zeleban

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Totally agree. Why would Russia destroy their pipeline? All they need to do is reduce the flow and make up an excuse. 

This has CIA work written all over it.

Might as well be done by PL or one of the Baltic countries. We ( or they  ) had 15 years to prepare for this contingency, and it was probably the single biggest sea-related security concern for us in the Baltic sea. 
Polish Special Troops Command includes Formoza, a unit specializing in maritime sabotage - literally James Bond/ Tom Clancy type of guys, they have their headquarters on the artificial island, in the former Nazi torpedo test center.

On a serious note, this surely is one of these things that we won't learn truth about in many decades, perhaps never - but we'll be able to treat ourselves to some interesting books and movies.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Huba

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Everybody, I'd like us all to take a deep breath here.  We should be able to discuss narrow, on-topic stuff without domestic issues getting dragged into the discussion.  I understand there are lots of you with sensitive trigger fingers on both sides of the political spectrum, so it's pretty obvious that there are certain topics that are more likely to get people firing away and dragging this thread off topic.  And it's not just US politics and/or Fox, though obviously it comes up fairly regularly.

Everybody's had enough of a say and I hope my last two posts cleared up misunderstandings of what I posted and why.

Steve

I'll make this one comment on the topic. (Some of) You US forum members comment on politics in other countries like you are automatically right because you are the grown-ups and the rest of the world are just squabbling children. And yet you can't even discuss something as disgusting as the words of this Carlson guy without being at each other's throats.

And I wish I could blame you for it but we are no better. The thing is, we discussed more than once that the current conflict is a clash of systems. But what good is democracy when we can't actually discuss politics?

*sigh*

Anyway, Merry Christmas, all of you.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

The ANA had a large scale literacy problem among many others. In terms of teaching the Ukrainians to fight like Americans I do hope some is keeping in mind we have NOT given them Abrams, and an air force.

So I am not sure the Americans would be able to “fight like Americans” in this war - air parity being a big issue, US has not fought in an air parity context since Korea.  Big formations manoeuvring might actually play to Russian strengths: they are large enough that even Russian ISR will spot them, and they are concentrated which favours Russian massed fires.

Russians are in bad shape but I am not sure they are in such bad shape that offering them big targets wont get a response. Now corrosive warfare and then an iron fist to really exploit the breakthrough may be a plan here.  It may accelerate Russian collapses, but then we get into the logistics problems.  One has to sustain those formations at 100s of kms as they blitz.   

I am still kinda at “dance with the one that brung ya” and “if it ain’t broke…etc”.  Does the UA need manoeuvre formations, yes.  Do they need to emulate the US or other western powers…less sure they should.  In fact we could probably take in a lot of lessons and adopt the Ukrainian ways of war in many ways - it has been tried and tested in peer environment. The western way of war has never really had that.  Persian Gulf was a close as we got but that was 30+ years ago and a very different war. Since then it has largely been COIN/dusty grudge matches or the tethered one eyed goat that was left of the Iraqi military in ‘03- hardly a stunning pedigree of victories to show for trillions in defence spending and fairly untried in the environment the UA finds itself within.

[Huba]

In other news:

Reportedly a Cargo 747 from Abu Dhabi has landed in Warsaw today.

 

UA is reportedly continuing the counterattack south from Opytne, which puts all the RU units south of Bakhmut at risk and might lead to their withdrawal from some key positions. This is a rather hot news - we should know tomorrow, but if it's true, RU has just lost 2 months worth of territorial gains.

[Beleg85]

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success/

I don't think it was posted before.

 

Unfortunatelly, another Krab was destroyed in Ukraine:

 

 

 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

What is intriguing me at the moment is, who blew up the Nordstream pipelines? The Russians were using gas as a weapon, leverage against the Germans principally. And one has to remember that Nordstream could supply 40% of German needs, and that German industry is built on Russian gas. One country or countries decided to cut that leverage by blowing up the pipelines, thus forcing Germany to give up any hope off rapprochement with Russia,

One, German industry is not built on Russian gas. It is built on cheap energy which is often gas, which often came from Russia.
Now we import 0% Russian gas and the industry is still working.

Then, Russian gas was out on February 25th. That was a political decision and there is no way back. Except maybe to pay for Russian reparations to Ukraine when the war is over.

The most convincing theory is IMO that Putin burned the bridges behind him with that. To kill any chance of disposing of him, retreating from Ukraine and buying the way out with gas.

[dan/california]

deleted, Steve asked us to stop...

edit: But i am owed a real bone about the game for this restraint....

Edited December 24, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Another funny opus. Especially for those who think that Russia's appetite is limited to Ukraine. It turns out that Poland is Russia, which has never been able to become a full-fledged Russia.

It does explain Poland putting in orders for the strongest land forces in Europe rather neatly. 

[BlackMoria]

Heh.  Starshe Edda needs to learn what another 'geopolitical error'  is.  Attacking Poland or any other Baltic State.  Damn, the Russian bear's face is already stung and badly swollen from sticking it into the Ukrainian wasp nest.   And they want to do it again... with murder hornets this time.  That is some cosmic level stupidity going on right now.

[sburke]

Just a heads up to folks.  We had better stay within forum rules and on topic.  The Eagles are losing to Dallas.  It is possible Elvis will drown himself to an oblivion state but I wouldn't count on it.

[sburke]

Russian carrier catches fire and then this?  Coincidence?

Russian Defense Bigwig Dies Suddenly and ‘Tragically’ (yahoo.com)

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, BlackMoria said:

Heh.  Starshe Edda needs to learn what another 'geopolitical error'  is.  Attacking Poland or any other Baltic State.  Damn, the Russian bear's face is already stung and badly swollen from sticking it into the Ukrainian wasp nest.   And they want to do it again... with murder hornets this time.  That is some cosmic level stupidity going on right now.

TV and internet propagandist/nationalists like beformentioned already absolutelly convinced many Russians they are indeeed fighting NATO itself and these Polish mercenaries. It's hillarious to watch, but long-term consequences for countries in Central Europe can be actually real, with milions of people so much zombified they may find somebody to do terror attacks in the future or at least having carte blanche from their population for more aggressive provocations. Large parts of their society seem to truly believe in this made-up stuff, and for this sole reason we should be on guard. It may not even end with Putin, and bear fruits even decade from now.

 

Btw. thread slightly touching on this topic (i.e. Russian society after war):

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/zelensky-congress-speech-us-ukraine-support/672547/

Quote

Russian soldiers, strengthened by their stunning victory, would already be on the borders of Poland, setting up new command posts, digging new trenches. NATO would be in chaos; the entire alliance would be forced to spend billions to prepare for the inevitable invasion of Warsaw, Vilnius, or Berlin. Millions of Ukrainian refugees would be living in camps all across Europe, with no prospect of ever returning home; the tide of sympathy that originally greeted them would have ebbed long ago; the money would be running out, the backlash under way. The Moldovan economy would have collapsed entirely; a pro-Russian government in Moldova would perhaps already be planning to incorporate that country into the emerging Russian-Belarusian-Ukrainian federation that one Russian propagandist hailed, too early, on February 26.

This disaster would not have been confined to Europe. On the other side of the world, Chinese plans to invade Taiwan would be well under way, because Beijing would assume that an America unwilling to defend a European ally, and now totally bogged down in a long-term battle against an emboldened Russia, would never go out of its way to help an island in the Pacific. The Iranian mullahs, equally cheered by Russia’s success and Ukraine’s defeat, would have boldly announced that they had finally acquired nuclear weapons. From Venezuela to Zimbabwe to Myanmar, dictatorships around the world would have tightened their regimes and stepped up the persecution of their opponents, now certain that the old rules—the conventions on human rights and genocide, the laws of war, the taboo against changing borders by force—no longer applied. From Washington to London, from Tokyo to Canberra, the democratic world would be grimly facing up to its obsolescence.

A most unpleasant might have been. To say we owe Zelensky and the Ukrainians a LOT is an understatement. Truly, some tanks and some longer range missiles are not even a tithe of what we owe them.

[sburke]

Lukashenko arrives in Moscow, but Putin doesn’t show up to meet him (yahoo.com)

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Just a heads up to folks.  We had better stay within forum rules and on topic.  The Eagles are losing to Dallas.  It is possible Elvis will drown himself to an oblivion state but I wouldn't count on it.

I had to run to Portland and back, didn't realize Eagles lost til now.  I'm gonna go hide under my bed.  Elvis is gonna be looking to put a whuppin' on somebody.  Eagles did have back up QB in but they gave up 40?  Oh my.  He's gonna be really mad.

Be a good time to goad someone you don't like though in the hopes he'd throw the personal foul flag on the retaliation while missing the instigation.  Risky though.

[FancyCat]

5 hours ago, Grossman said:

What is intriguing me at the moment is, who blew up the Nordstream pipelines? The Russians were using gas as a weapon, leverage against the Germans principally. And one has to remember that Nordstream could supply 40% of German needs, and that German industry is built on Russian gas. One country or countries decided to cut that leverage by blowing up the pipelines, thus forcing Germany to give up any hope off rapprochement with Russia, forcing it to rebalance its industry. It happened on September 26. The Kerch Bridge explosion happened on Oct 8.

My guest its was a combo operation, Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. The Post reports there is nothing conclusive. Not surprising. 

 

4 hours ago, Simcoe said:

Totally agree. Why would Russia destroy their pipeline? All they need to do is reduce the flow and make up an excuse. 

This has CIA work written all over it.

Please be advised, the pipelines from Russia thru Ukraine, and Russia thru Poland to the rest of Europe remain open and flowing, tho Russia cut off gas supply thru Poland but the pipeline is still good for flows to Germany if restarted. The pipeline thru Ukraine remains active.

If Germany decided to reopen gas imports, it can do so via those routes.

Be aware, Nordstream 2 Line B was not destroyed and Gazprom stated it would be able to flow gas thru in the aftermath of the sabotage.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/gazprom-ready-to-ship-gas-via-shelved-nord-stream-2-pipeline

Nordstream 2, mid-approval process was shut down by Germany at the start of the invasion as punishment by Germany towards Russia, however Nordstream 1 gas contracts remained in force, with Germany expecting the gas to remain flowing in NS1. Gazprom shut down the flow via NS1 claiming maintenance issues and the sanctions prevented their resolution of the issues.

When Germany refused to budge and insisted on continued gas flowing in NS1, lol and behold, NS1 blows up.

But NS2 remains functional with one line.

However, in contrast to NS1 which Germany can state that existing contracts must be fulfilled, NS2 requires the German government to finish approving the pipeline, thereby stopping Germany's own placed sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion.

Had Germany felt pressured by the loss of gas via NS1 such that NS2 would be approved, it would basically divide the Western consensus on Ukraine and Russia and mark a success for Putin and Russia in reducing European sanctions and pressure on Russia.

It makes perfect sense for Russia to destroy NS1 and half of NS2, one, they hoped to divide the West with the idea of Poland-Ukraine-UK-USA (the Anglo-Saxon alliance in opposition to continental Europe (GER/France), a common Russian talking point) destroying the pipeline to keep Europe and Germany freezing in Winter and stopping European independence, Two, by leaving only NS2 able to flow, Russia hoped that since Germany would obviously fight back against the "Anglo-Saxons" by asking for gas, incidentally, this gas must flow thru the shuttered NS2, meaning the clear end of German shift in policy against Russia, in contrast to the more muddled NS1 fulfillment of existing gas contracts.

 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Russian carrier catches fire and then this?  Coincidence?

Russian Defense Bigwig Dies Suddenly and ‘Tragically’ (yahoo.com)

That carrier is always on the verge of burning or sinking.  When they manage to get the engines running it generates a continuous smoke screen/signal and the rest of the time gets hauled around by a tug.  It didn’t need any help catching fire.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, chrisl said:

That carrier is always on the verge of burning or sinking.  When they manage to get the engines running it generates a continuous smoke screen/signal and the rest of the time gets hauled around by a tug.  It didn’t need any help catching fire.

that wasn't the suggestion.  It was more another embarrassing moment for Russia.  Putin isn't likely in the best of moods these days.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

One, German industry is not built on Russian gas. It is built on cheap energy which is often gas, which often came from Russia.
Now we import 0% Russian gas and the industry is still working.

Then, Russian gas was out on February 25th. That was a political decision and there is no way back. Except maybe to pay for Russian reparations to Ukraine when the war is over.

The most convincing theory is IMO that Putin burned the bridges behind him with that. To kill any chance of disposing of him, retreating from Ukraine and buying the way out with gas.

This. 

If you read the reports on this carefully, pretty much all they say is that nobody's fingerprints were left on the operation. That's all. You then get a bunch of quotes from politicians who plant their favored scenario on the reporter. That's what politicians do but it's not evidence in any sense and the vast preponderance of circumstance points at Russia.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/zelensky-congress-speech-us-ukraine-support/672547/

A most unpleasant might have been. To say we owe Zelensky and the Ukrainians a LOT is an understatement. Truly, some tanks and some longer range missiles are not even a tithe of what we owe them.

Once again in the field of human conflict, so much is owed by so many to so few...