Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like they didn't destroy as many aircraft as we would have hoped to see.  It's tough to say, but I'm counting 8 probable destroyed, with 2 possibly repairable or at least usable for parts.

Steve

Well we don't know if / how many pilots and maintenance personal were killed. I guess this hurts a lot more than just the planes. How long does it take to train a fighter pilot? 1 year, 2 years? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Well we don't know if / how many pilots and maintenance personal were killed. I guess this hurts a lot more than just the planes. How long does it take to train a fighter pilot? 1 year, 2 years? 

Local TG channel wrote about 60 KIA and 100 WIA among the base personnel including pilots, but this is just rumors

Edited by Haiduk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like they didn't destroy as many aircraft as we would have hoped to see.  It's tough to say, but I'm counting 8 probable destroyed, with 2 possibly repairable or at least usable for parts.

Steve

 UA claimed 9 destroyed, but I swear on both photos there are more. Also, hard to tell the level of destruction on those still standing. Curiously, the one aircraft standing directly against left-most detroyed shack seems to be largely ok.

 

Now, i wait for Russian milcommentators reactions. Meltdown will be priceless.

Edited by Beleg85
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 UA claimed 9 destroyed, but I swear on both photos there are more. Also, hard to tell the level of destruction on those still standing. Curiously, the one aircraft standing directly against left-most detroyed shack seems to be largely ok.

 

Now, i wait for Russian milcommentators reactions. Meltdown will be priceless.

The demilitarization of Russia continues. 😉

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OldSarge said:

US SURGEON GENERAL’S WARNING: Quitting Smoking Now Greatly Reduces Serious Risks to Your Health.

Lucky Strike, isn't it? 🤠

 

ED: Two short videos from infantry skirmish by Kostas kalinousky regiment; the unit reportedly get another KIA (not shown here). Interesting is that everybody seem to talk in their own language- I hear Ukrainian, Czech and Portugese (?).

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1557413153637650432

 

Edited by Beleg85
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a bit to chew on.

A contact of mine in Kyiv has spoken with a former Yuzhmash employee who has first hand knowledge of the Grim project.  What he was able to suss out is a theory that Ukraine has had these available for some time now, but only in extremely small quantities.  Some were used at ranges where they could be confused with Tochka-U strikes.  However, having had nearly none on hand at the start of the war and only able to produce them very slowly, there's not been many of these used until yesterday.  The theory goes that Ukraine built up a small quantity (~10) to do a strategic level strike, such as we saw yesterday.

Now that he's put this theory out there... I think we've all seen a Grim strike before.  Remember the precision strike on the HQ southwest of Izyum that nailed all kinds of senior officers?  Remember that I doggedly stuck to my guns and said the one hit on the HQ was a PGM and the other hits were to camouflage it?  Remember at the time I speculated that Excalibur was used for the precision strike and Tochka-Us for the others?  Well... I think I got all that right except it was a Grim instead of Excalibur.

I'm sure someone here will think of another situation where we scratched our heads about what Ukraine used for a strike.  There certainly are some others that were puzzling at the time.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Grigb said:

Khodakovsky (commander of Vostok battalion) describes his experience on Vugledar direction fighting [according to RU reports UKR arty at Vuhledar is stronger than at Pisky]

My comments:

  • I would believe Khadakovsky claims about losses at Mariupol - he is not stupid to participate in meat grinder when there are Mobiks. However, while Vostok was recuperating after Mariupol they completely missed single most important opportunity to achieve significant progress - force breakout at Pisky after UKR retreat from forward defense positions. I mean there was fresh Vostok battalion that lost almost nothing at Mariupol but it was other wasted battalions with the size of companies that tried to force the break out. And only when it was clear that everything has failed Vostok returned to battle and to completely different direction. Either Vostok lost significantly more at Mariupol or Khodakovsky does not do any serious fighting. Neither in Mariupol, not now.
  • Despite public perception of war as hard fire fights, the majority of time outside of the settlements fighting looks like running around from arty without pretty much firing a shot (keep in mind that firefight means you are static - easier target for arty).
  •  UKR arty can deal with RU if they get enough arty systems. On other hand RU arty cannot deal with UKR arty effectively.

This has been puzzling me since you first posted that Vostok was being deployed for a new operation.  My first thought was "huh, come to think of it I've not heard of them in any fighting for a while."  That seemed odd given how desperate the manpower shortage is for Russia and DLPR collectively.

I think the most likely scenario is that they took heavy casualties in Mariupol like all other units that fought there.  I really doubt they only had a few casualties UNLESS they were being kept to the rear to protect internal lines of communication.  But why weren't they thrown into any number of the desperate fights since then?  For example Popasna.  I doubt Khodakovsky has the same pull as Kadyrov to keep his unit shielded from real combat.  Therefore, a full strength Vostok sitting around not fighting doesn't make sense.

The obvious alternative is that Vostok got chewed up in Mariupol just like all the other Russian units and has been rebuilding since then.  Maybe with small detachments fighting here and there.

Steve

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK I very much want these images to be true but riddle me this why is the plane close to the "workshop" crater with an open bay front not pushed back or even over edge of rear blast wall?

 

I get the white one nearby being protected but not the one immediately opposite the blast?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Holien said:

OK I very much want these images to be true but riddle me this why is the plane close to the "workshop" crater with an open bay front not pushed back or even over edge of rear blast wall?

 

I get the white one nearby being protected but not the one immediately opposite the blast?

Good question, one of the planes was "moved" by blast compared to photo from hours before but apparently not entirely destroyed. Perhaps  blast was directed entirely to the west?

Also, there are heated discussions about airplanes from airstrip- were they destroyed but debris moved by Russians before the photo was made or those black signs are just remnants of some equipment?🤔

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The various names for the same new missile: Hrim-2, Grim-2, Grom, Grom-2 or Sapsam :blink:

The proper Ukrainian transliteration is Hrim («Грім»). "Grom" is the Russian transliteration of the Russian equivalent «Грoм». (It's like Kharkiv vs. Kharkov). Similarly, in Ukrainian, "Stugna" is actually pronounced "Stuhna".

"Hrim" refers to the missile itself, while "Sapsan" is for the complete complex (TEL + targeting etc.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Better hires pic of the area:

Image

from this thread:

 

 

I just don't see the evidence to support the larger number of destroyed aircraft.  Looking at the aftermath I count at most 9 probable fighter aircraft, 2 of which might be only somewhat damaged.  There's also two or more non-fighters in the area that likely have some sort of damage.  I don't see where the other 9 are post strike.  Before strike... sure, I see all kinds of aircraft, but that means nothing.  Aircraft can move ;)

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...