How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Interesting RU Nat hint - Vostok battalion that was in reserve during frontal attacks now is at Ugledar (to the south of Donetsk) and is expecting to enter the battle. 

Possibly RU is preparing a left hook at Ugledar to cut supply from UKR defenses at  Maryinka-Pisky-Avdyivka.

Audacious plan but southern axis offensive is stalled. So, they have to do something.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

The question is when will RU people not be able to preserve families lifes intact? We can try to link it to dates or to conditions

Dates

• Liberals were waiting for August initially. Now for August-September - they believe this is when RU economy will tank.
• Nationalists are waiting September-October - they believe cold will knock sense into EU forcing EU to abandon UKR. it's their last straw. One it's broken it should affect greatly their morale.

Conditions 

• Death of Putin - too much hinges on him. Once he is gone a lot of things will set in motion.
• RU Serious Economic Crisis. But we need to understand that RU economic crisis in RU starts not when it starts but when it is widely reported and discussed.  When there is word on the street that RU economy collapsing (regardless of actual collapse) it could be the last straw for many men who wants to continue to feed families.
• RU Humiliating Defeat in the battle - the same thing as with Economic Crisis - when there is word on the street that RU army collapsed (regardless of actual collapse) many men would want to change a lot of things.
• Mobilization - you cannot preserve the life of your family when RU gov wants to use you as cannon fodder.

Separate condition

I am putting this condition as way for myself to get out of my comfort zone and think through a scenario that I myself do not consider as likely (I do believe in UKR decisive victory), but it could still happen.

• Stalemate - without significant offensive victories on both sides and without significant changes in RU economy, the static fighting will last well into winter. The thing is the areas of two Donbass offensives are in extremely bad shape. There is a reason why UKR are evacuating people. RU currently boast they will restore everything. Given RU corruption and incompetence it is possible that it will end up in huge humanitarian disaster. It will force a serious political crisis in RU that Kremlin will not be able to ignore.

This is interesting sum up of what can happen, especially part about nats last straws- again playing into thesis that Russian fatalism and passivity are ultimate resources for Kremlin. We will probably see a lot more of narrative of "nation builded upon enduring suffering vs. luxury-driven West" incoming months.

Let's add what real cards Russia may still have in its sleeve in Ukraine (from point of view of Kremlin, not saying they will work)

1. Blackmail, inlcuding atomic- unfortunatelly more likely now than several months ago; not in the form of atomic weapons, but fallout from strike/"malfunction"/sabotage of Ukrianian atomic plant. Very disturbing in light of recent events at Zaporozhizhia NP. Kremlin probably now watching reactions of the West and try to establish future strategy regarding this resource; fear and memory of Chernobyl is still very fresh in, for example, Poland and Scandinavia, so it may be useful to put some pressure. Of course @Grigb is right it is probably personal prerogative of Putin and nobody else; it is hard to believe Russians targeted spent fuel storage area by mistake.

2.Using civilians as de facto hostages- practically already in motion, but may become more prevalent,massive in scope and strategy-driven. Most probably to take place not in Donbas, but in occupied areas where locals are not cooperative enough (Kherson obl./Kharkiv)

3.Threat of destroying all infrastructure on areas left behind by RUAF- also de facto already happening, but in Kremlin's official language they are still restraining. It is even possible that part of Russian top brass genuienly thinks that way.

4. Local chemical/biological terror campaign disguised as Ukrainian/CIA work- tool of last resort. After 5 months, Russian propaganda still weights heavily on "American biolabs" narrative despite its obvious absurdity. I don't think this is just silly excuse for invasion. In Kremlin's twisted language it may send signall to the west "let's remember something bad may happen if you push us too hard".

 

In discussions at Putin's long tables other factors are also probably being put up frequently, like those of geopolitical/diplomatic nature. It would be fascinating to be a fly on Kremlin' cabinets walls; to know how much Putin himself really understands from all of this.

[Grigb]

29 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Interesting RU Nat hint - Vostok battalion that was in reserve during frontal attacks now is at Ugledar (to the south of Donetsk) and is expecting to enter the battle. 

Possibly RU is preparing a left hook at Ugledar to cut supply from UKR defenses at  Maryinka-Pisky-Avdyivka.

Audacious plan but southern axis offensive is stalled. So, they have to do something.

 

[UPDATE] Yesterday Girkin reported about RU attack at Ugledar. Given he does not report about small skirmishes then there is possibility yesterday a big RU attack happened at Ugledar but nothing came out of it. If it is so, then RU plan was for Vostok to strike into Maryinka flank to break stalemate at least there. Probably they will try it again.

We will see.

Edited August 8, 2022 by Grigb

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

We need independent confirmation. I do not doubt they put explosives everywhere just in case. But I do doubt RU general openly telling things that only Putin has right to tell (nuclear blackmailing). RU generals brave enough to tell what only Putin can tell are long dead. Also, the more you say the more reasons to get you to prison. 

So, I do not believe it yet due to this brazen statement. Too bold, too audacious to be the real thing. 

It is not independent verification, but Ukraine is officially declaring it occurred. One, it's interesting Russia is resorting to blackmail and threats to leave Ukraine a wasteland in the event of Russian defeat, that speaks volumes to the potential for defeat. Two, assuming this isn't some mouthy Russian general, Russia continues to make the case for Ukraine to fight on, and the West to support Ukraine in doing so. There are more nuclear power plants including one near ish Odessa, and actions like this are not at all deescalatory.

EDIT: tweet below may be debunked as responding to fakes.

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

Russia denies it. It's a pretty big claim so good it looks to be a fake. Could be Ukrainian planted? Potentially. Anything that gets Russia away from the plant is important.

 

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, riptides said:

Birds aren't real.

https://birdsarentreal.com/

 

Try convincing them of that when they're clamped onto your leg.

[Grigb]

Notes from RU Nats volunteer experience countering drones:

• Anti-drone rifles are better to use together with small arms fire. While typical rifle will not disable drone completely (especially custom modified drones) it will at least disrupt communication to some extent. It will make drones much easier target for small arms (once drone comms interrupts control simple AI takes control of the drone, but it is stupid and moves slowly and in straight line). 
• Anti-Drone rifles must be supplemented with direction finding EW equipment to be able to aim at drones without seeing them, for example at night.
• RU Nats claim to have custom modification of Anti-drone rifle (probably based on LPD-801) that allows them to drain drone battery. So, their rifle not only interferes with communication it quickly crashes targeted drone.

Based on that typical infantry platoon should have at least one anti-drone two-man team with EW direction finder, anti-drone rifle and marksman rifle with advanced sight to be able hitting moving targets. Obviously there should be a more powerful vehicle-based solution. 

This seems to be the answer to countering cheap drones that RU arty is using now.

Edited August 8, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Here is better videos from Cowshed position in Pisky. Ignore Ru talks - the first is useless chit chat of civilian reporter about shed and RU arty that could hit it. Second is RU soldier BS about Evil Nazis.

Edited August 8, 2022 by Grigb

[poesel]

36 minutes ago, Grigb said:

• RU Nats claim to have custom modification of Anti-drone rifle (probably based on LPD-801) that allows them to drain drone battery. So, their rifle not only interferes with communication it quickly crashes targeted drone.

That is physically impossible. Utter BS.

[dan/california]

It sounds like at least one side is trying something.

[chrisl]

26 minutes ago, poesel said:

That is physically impossible. Utter BS.

Could be a bow and arrow with a wire to ground...

[quakerparrot67]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Try convincing them of that when they're clamped onto your leg.

they are more likely to go for ears, noses, and fingers.  i live with one.

cheers,

rob

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Interesting RU Nat hint - Vostok battalion that was in reserve during frontal attacks now is at Ugledar (to the south of Donetsk) and is expecting to enter the battle. 

Possibly RU is preparing a left hook at Ugledar to cut supply from UKR defenses at  Maryinka-Pisky-Avdyivka.

Audacious plan but southern axis offensive is stalled. So, they have to do something.

I think the same map has been generated for every single RU operation in Donbas.  The Pisky attack was supposed to break the lines there & follow the road net to then cut off bakhmut.  Before that were attacks toward Avdivka.  And I think most of us here will be willing to bet on the outcome:  big barrage for a day or so, UKR pulls back, RU gains ~1km or so.  RU stalls.  over & over & over & over again.  

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It sounds like at least one side is trying something.

Now that is interesting.  I wonder what's up?  I wonder how much ammo RU forces have stockpiled?  And what is the rate of re-supply?  Once the rate-in is less than the rate-out, things are going to get interesting.  Hopefully RU will make the wise decision and try to mount an offensive out of this bridgehead.  Preferably planned at the very highest level of RU military decision making by Herr Putler himself.  

If the bridgehead is compressed, the only bad news is that left bank RU arty will be in range of front lines.  

August is shaping up to be a very interesting month.

On the nuke plant subject:  I suspect if RU were to cause a radiation disaster, they would of course blame it on HIMARS.  And no one would believe that except Amnesty.  But this would be a massive escalation -- I think it would cause EU to become more aggressive, not less.  

RU handling this so stupidly, as I've mentioned before.  Instead of saying "this is internal civil war, stay out, we just want peace", they continually say "watch out, we're craaaaaazy, and you're all next!"

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

If the bridgehead is compressed, the only bad news is that left bank RU arty will be in range of front lines.  

But if the bridgehead is compressed enough for Russian artillery on the other side to do any thing it also means Ukrainian guns can range the river and ALL the other Russian supply routes for that sector with normal 155 instead of the fancy rounds. I am strongly of the opinion that any segment of the Russian pocket that gets compressed this far will collapse almost immediately due zero usable supply routes. The whole area is flat as a pancake and there is no cover to speak of.

[Grigb]

Agent Murz reports from the frontlines about RU tank comms. Summary - as usual it is even worse than you think.

Quote

Impressions and request [from other people] of the last days add up to a picture that looks like, for the uninitiated, as apocalypse-not-today-tomorrow,  but organisms like mine, accustomed to [such] amazement, can handle it.

The weapons specialists are calling. There was no supply of ZIP [spares] for small arms before February, and there is no now. But now, only now all LNR military shops have either been swept clean on this issue, or closed. Getting anybody in the army on mobilization, one should probably assume that the missing skills in handling weapons and their savings will lead to the need to have this very ZIP in a significant amount. But no.

By the way, yes, another wave of catching people has started in the Republic [new wave of forced mobilization started couple of days ago. They say they mobilize even those who was not allowed to mobilize before for example due to important skills], called to suffer premature death or injuries to compensate for the official incompetence of those who planned SMO and the unwillingness of the leadership of the Russian Federation to mobilize in the Russian Federation. It is ridiculous in some places, as in February, - the mobilization of people from telecommunications companies paralyzes the work of state organizations, after which the entire chain of state organization realizes the mistake and begins to roll back [the changes]... Factories, at least in places that have been launched with much difficulty, [we] can close or stop again, because the replacement of those mobilized by [recently arrived] "displaced persons from liberated territories" is, of course, a very fun attraction, but this malicious joke has nothing to do with the [maintaining] workflow [hints at UKR saboteurs among recently "liberated" UKR workers]. In general, it's fun.

I don't know how many people will be caught this time, but the full impression is that when some kind of mobilization in the Russian Federation begins by the end, the mobilized Russians will fight already, yes, with shovel handles. As I have already said, we have run out of generals who grew up on Ozerov's films [old soviet ww2 epics], and the existing ones will reproduce Mikhalkov's "masterpieces" [Mikhalkov's ww2 movies are like Enemy at gates but worse]

I was recently in the workshop where the signalmen of 2 AK NM LNR repair radio stations R-123 and R-173 with military equipment. No, they don't give the R-123 tube radios to museums after repairs, but put them back on tanks. To fight. Because the Russian Federation was not preparing for war, and there is nothing more to put in tanks, and the AFU has a digital Motorola on the archaic BRDM, adapted for a tank intercom device. For the entire People's Militia of the LPR, there was one motorized rifle battalion that could do something like this - our "Ghost". The result - in the summer of 2021, at the training ground, they [RU officers] demanded to remove Motorolas and put back the old stuff, although there were plenty of basic and portable digital radios to control the equipment. "Not allowed [due to military TOE]!"

And only in the late spring of this year, our signalmen finally found the time and returned normal communication to the equipment. Now using captured "Lybeds", transitional platforms, and captured "Motorolas", this has gradually begun to be done by neighbors. In small quantities.

Of course, the infantry has nothing but the P-159 to communicate with tanks normally. Tankers and infantrymen all over the front are frantically looking for at least some portable radios operating in the 30-50 MHz range. What the KCPN [volunteer org] brought before 2022 instantly became a drop in the sea of "urgently needed yesterday." And, of course, everything rests in the end not even in the number of P-159, but in the number of normal batteries for them and in the number of chargers. Old, **** knows when released. Replaced by devices like Imax B6, but these Imax B6 still need to be bought and brought and taught to people how to use them.

However, the signalmen from the tank battalion call next, and I understand that no one will simply live to experience the problem of walkie-talkies, because the headsets have run out. And no, dear reader, the headset is not a cloth cap with foam inserts protecting the head of a tanker. This is a cloth cap with foam inserts, in which there is a headset of a tank intercom device connected to this TPU [tank intercom] through the appropriate connector. And through this very TPU, the tanker talks to other crew members and, if necessary, goes into radio communication with other vehicles, infantry and superiors. Head phones, laryngophones, everything. And now it's all gone. The functional stuffing of the headsets is gone. Everything that was possible has long been removed from winter headsets and rearranged into summer ones. And it's already over. And there is no supply.

You all know about TPU tangents, the topic has been revealed by me many times. [it is constantly breaks but there is no spare]

So, in principle, there is no doubt about the fate of the remnants of our "tank force". These pathetic remnants will also be destroyed without communication.

Amazing people.
And everyone will receive awards and next military ranks for this.
And then Prigozhin [oligarch, owner of Wagner] will film how "Wagner" defeated everyone. Another piece of **** like "The Sun".
And everyone will be happy, which will be somewhat disturbed by the distant cannonade coming from the front, where people will continue to die.

RU can mobilize but they will have to fight with shovel handles. Full stop.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

That is physically impossible. Utter BS.

It was not a claim per se. It was just talk about their recent job the guy said something like btw, it quickly discharged drone battery so it dropped, and we picked it up. That's why I got curious. Maybe it does not affect the battery directly but sends signal to overspin engines and drain battery much faster. I would like to discuss it but my knowledge bout it is nil.  

[Grigb]

38 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think the same map has been generated for every single RU operation in Donbas.  The Pisky attack was supposed to break the lines there & follow the road net to then cut off bakhmut.  Before that were attacks toward Avdivka.  And I think most of us here will be willing to bet on the outcome:  big barrage for a day or so, UKR pulls back, RU gains ~1km or so.  RU stalls.  over & over & over & over again.  

Yes, I believe the same. Progress is ridiculously small in some places. 

[Grigb]

RU Nat comparing death rates

Quote

Well, in order not to forget later, I will name one figure that I heard here: the difference between the number of dead Muscovites from among those who signed a contract after the start of the special operation - and representatives of the three main national republics - is about 10 times. In favor of national republics. Despite the fact that there are much fewer people living in these republics than in Moscow.

 

[chrisl]

50 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Now that is interesting.  I wonder what's up?  I wonder how much ammo RU forces have stockpiled?  And what is the rate of re-supply?  Once the rate-in is less than the rate-out, things are going to get interesting.  Hopefully RU will make the wise decision and try to mount an offensive out of this bridgehead.  Preferably planned at the very highest level of RU military decision making by Herr Putler himself.  

If the bridgehead is compressed, the only bad news is that left bank RU arty will be in range of front lines.  

August is shaping up to be a very interesting month.

On the nuke plant subject:  I suspect if RU were to cause a radiation disaster, they would of course blame it on HIMARS.  And no one would believe that except Amnesty.  But this would be a massive escalation -- I think it would cause EU to become more aggressive, not less.  

RU handling this so stupidly, as I've mentioned before.  Instead of saying "this is internal civil war, stay out, we just want peace", they continually say "watch out, we're craaaaaazy, and you're all next!"

I've been wondering about that for RU artillery shells lately.  It seems like all they can do anymore is flatten a space with arty and then creep in, move a little forward, and repeat.  Someone has got to be tracking how much they're using daily, how much they're losing daily, and how much they can make to predict when they'll be incapable of even pretending to advance.

[Huba]

New batch of US weapons is announced, and it includes 20 "mortar system" which I'd think might be M113 based mortars? This is exactly what we talked about here like 2 days ago. I think it was Grigb who suggested that this is what UA needs, and voila!

[Grigb]

@Haiduk can you please comment UKR side claims of recent strikes at RU AD using HARM please? I mean it looks like there was a serios strike on 5-7 august with good result. Arestovich even claim that RU AD is infective in Kherson. What do you think?  

[Huba]

@Grigb US just confirmed that, and more - reportedly these are being launched by aircraft. I wonder how that's possible, perhaps Wolski's theory about OPFOR Su-27s is true? Or they managed to wire some other aircraft  from former Warsaw Pact (Bulgarian Su-25 or more probably Slovakian/ Polish Mig-29s?)

 

[JonS]

Why would any non-native opfor a/c be wired and certified for any live native weapons?

Edited August 8, 2022 by JonS

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

@Grigb US just confirmed that, and more - reportedly these are being launched by aircraft. I wonder how that's possible, perhaps Wolski's theory about OPFOR Su-27s is true? Or they managed to wire some other aircraft  from former Warsaw Pact (Bulgarian Su-25 or more probably Slovakian/ Polish Mig-29s?)

 

I wanted to know @Haiduk opinion about what seems to be start of UKR SEAD campaign.

Quote

Defeat of the Russian air defense system on August 5-7: deliveries of HARM missiles to Ukraine have become as deadly as HIMARS

The Armed Forces of Ukraine used the latest American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles against Russian air defense radars, and photos of the wreckage taken at Russian positions are posted on the Internet.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for August 5-7 reported the destruction of a record number of Russian air defense systems - 14 units of air defense systems and radars of the Armed Forces of Russia. Despite the fact that on August 4, not a single system in the Russian Federation, according to our official reports, was destroyed, it is obvious that the enemy missed a sudden powerful blow. When using HARM, the count looks like an exaggeration, but such a "pogrom" [mass defeat] is quite possible, since previously the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not use anti-radar missiles, and Russian radars worked almost without interference. Therefore, the effect of the surprise of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was absolute - I hope that someday we will hear about the details of this operation, which cost Russia hundreds of millions of dollars in losses in equipment and personnel.