How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Couldn’t read The NY Times OpEd you attached. It’s behind a paywall.

It wasn't all that interesting, so you aren't missing anything.  I didn't find it all that bad, but it still sounds like old school "we gotta compromise because the other guy won't" line of thinking.  In there view the escalation of increasingly superior and numerous weapons into Ukraine is going to eventually cause Russia to do something escalatory.  Like attacking Lithuania or bombing weapons transiting from Poland while on Polish soil.  While this is absolutely a possibility, it presumes that Putin thinks NATO is a big bluff.  If the West starts to compromise now then guess what?  NATO is a bluff.  Which is why so many people who understand Russian thinking are saying that the West should not compromise and dare Russia to call NATO's bluff it that's what it wants to do.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Therefore, I'm gonna disagree with you on speed, and on the feasibility of taking Crimea. If Ukraine retakes the puppet republics, then the Ukrainian military is probably sufficient to invade Crimea. If Ukraine takes the republics, the Russian military does not have the ability to defend Crimea. If Ukraine takes Kherson and Putin does not mobilize, unless he's just getting the most incompetent advice from the General Staff, he's more afraid of mobilization than the loss of the Donbas republics.

For sure this is theoretically possible, but I don't think it is likely.  The more likely scenarios:

1. Russia's military collapses and Ukraine "walks in" to the occupied territories, including Crimea.
2. Same as #1, but Russia maintains enough fighting force to make Ukraine think twice about trying to retake Crimea.  The spit of land connecting it to Ukraine is not that difficult to defend.
3. Russia offers to pull back to pre-war lines and Ukraine, tired of war, accepts it and leaves everything else on the table for the time being.

Longer term, though, depends most heavily on how badly Russia falls apart when Putin is ousted.  The worse it goes for Russia, the easier it is for Ukraine to regain its lost territories.

Steve

[Haiduk]

In our twitters I often see how people from Kherson oblast, who could escape to UKR-controlled territoty or who could to communicate with own familiars on occupied territories, write, that relatively "calm" situation only in Kherson and in towns of oblast (but anyway Russians abduct people, robber property etc) - in villages situation is terrible, almost each village is micro-Bucha. Locals in fear try to escape to disrict centers or to Kherson if they can't go to UKR-controlled territory, but Russians often deny any movement out of villages. 

Translation: 

I have spoken with some people today... And I can say this. Katsaps (Russians) will defend Kherson oblast by all means and forces, Because when it will be liberated from them - the world will tremble from what it sees.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Not going to try finding the full version of this video because of how barbaric it sounds.

As repulsive as this video sounds I'm not even surprised anymore, given all the other war crimes we have heard of by now.

I saw that video. And other, when Russians cut off the head and hands of our soldier and put it on the fence. 

I post a link (GRAPHIC!):  https://twitter.com/dohuyaUmnyi/status/1552738347012980736

Nation of Tolstoy and Chekhov? We at war with hordes of cruel degenerates. 

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Thomm]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I post a link (GRAPHIC!):

You should not.

Just my personal opinion.

Stay safe!
Thomm

[Harmon Rabb]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I saw that video. And other, when Russians cut off the head and hands of our soldier and put it on the fence. 

I post a link (GRAPHIC!):  https://twitter.com/dohuyaUmnyi/status/1552738347012980736

Nation of Tolstoy and Chekhov? We at war with hordes of cruel degenerates. 

 

Thank you for bringing this to light and posting a warning.

I'm not going to watch it but I believe the video is exactly how you describe it.

Russia can't be declared a state sponsor of terrorism soon enough.

 

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I saw that video. And other, when Russians cut off the head and hands of our soldier and put it on the fence. 

I post a link (GRAPHIC!):  https://twitter.com/dohuyaUmnyi/status/1552738347012980736

Nation of Tolstoy and Chekhov? We at war with hordes of cruel degenerates. 

They already found the guy in social media, some Buryat/Kalmuk in very characteristic hat. Most probably Wagner/PMC. He was also found in other video with one of the lower commanders of Akhmat-Sila detachment.

What a bunch of barbarians. I really hope your guys will find him nad put to justice, whatever it will be...

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I have spoken with some people today... And I can say this. Katsaps (Russians) will defend Kherson oblast by all means and forces, Because when it will be liberated from them - the world will tremble from what it sees.

That will be one of the reasons Russians may stick to Kherson more than it is strategically sound. I wonder if their command learned something avfter Bucha massacres about at least hiding evidence of atrocities.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Most probably Wagner/PMC.

Kalmyk, not Buriat. 15th territorial defense battalion "Brianka/USSR" of LPR. Citizen of Russia

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Kalmyk, not Buriat. 15th territorial defense battalion "Brianka/USSR" of LPR. Citizen of Russia

Yep, they just found his personalia. Internet is fast and terrible tool in such cases. Very good. After seeing this I just put some extra money for crowfund for Warmate drones. Really, this army behave like Budionny's cavalry in 1920.

 

[FancyCat]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Longer term, though, depends most heavily on how badly Russia falls apart when Putin is ousted.  The worse it goes for Russia, the easier it is for Ukraine to regain its lost territories.

Steve

I am doubtful the regime will fall apart so in my opinion, war offers the best chance for Ukraine to regain territories without annoying calls for ceasefire and diplomacy. Also, if these reports emerging from Kherson oblast are correct, Russia has littered the occupied territories with war crimes, and cleansing of civilians and there is nothing like war crimes to drain international opinion. Bucha definitely tilted the scale internationally. 

I'm really not favorable on the opinion of the Russian Navy or Air Force to defend Crimea, not after they let Snake Island fall without so much a fight. I really don't think if Ukraine can beat Russia at Kherson, then run successful offensives into the Donbas, that Russia can both lose the Donbas republics yet hold Crimea. 

If anything, if not mistaken, I believe once Ukraine controls Kherson, and the rest of the right bank of the Dnipro, the Isthmus of Perekop is within range for targeting of HIMARS anyway. 

[Haiduk]

Interesting twitt about commercial drones vs EW and anti-drone rifles from our SOF fighter

Translation of this and comments:

My air recons with Autels now slightly in the ass. The powerful drones, but have a problems with "head". EW has been killing them. Curiously enough Mavics (DJI) show better survivability...

Yes, during the tests with antidrone rifle, Mavics just loss a picture, but keeps a control. But Autels are immediately turned on landing mode or return to home mode (But anyway anti-drone rifles are BS).

79th brigade's Autel had just altitude control failure and fu..ck hit on the ground.   

Edited July 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

Essential steps for ensuring Ukraine is willing to reform to abide by EU rules are continuing to take place. This was a key point required by the EU.

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/g-7-ambassadors-urge-ukraine-to-appoint-head-of-specialized-anti-corruption-prosecutors-office-vacant-since-august-2020

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

From yesterday's ISW report:

Quote

The Kremlin continues to show preference for some ethnic groups over others during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which may spark ethnic unrest in Russia. Ukrainian Deputy Justice Minister Olena Vysotska said that the Kremlin prioritizes returning Chechen fighters in prisoner exchanges but is not as interested in exchanging personnel from the Buryatia Republic or the Far East. Vysotska added that the Kremlin shows almost no consideration for the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) prisoners of war.

Just when I thought I had come to grips with how pathetic, petty, racist, violent, and profoundly dumb the Putin regime is, I find something that prove there is still room for growth in my contempt.  How stupid is it to NOT exchange a few prisoners from the republics doing most important to the war effort?  It's almost like Putin is trying to make sure that when the time comes the people of those republics will have even MORE reason to break away from Russian control.  It's like Putin isn't interested in even putting in minimal effort to keep discontent tamped down except for European Russia and Chechnya.

Which, BTW, once again brings us to Chechnya

If the repeated reports of prisoner exchanges favoring Chechens is true (and I assume it is), what does that say about Putin's level of concern about trouble there?  Especially if he knows that favoring Chechen prisoners to exchange looks bad to the other republics.

Tea leaves are all we have, so that's what we have to work with.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yep, they just found his personalia. Internet is fast and terrible tool in such cases. Very good. After seeing this I just put some extra money for crowfund for Warmate drones. Really, this army behave like Budionny's cavalry in 1920.

I am going to opt out on seeing these videos.  I've seen enough barbarity in my 40 years of studying warfare to be able to equate the descriptions with images already stuck in my head.  I don't need more in there.  I certainly don't need them to confirm the barbarity of Russian forces.  And it's going to get worse as they drain the prisons and the losers of society to rush into war with no training.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Russia continues to do the opposite of giving Western doves ammo to lower support to Ukraine. Its like Russia wants Ukraine to smash them to pieces in Kherson. I can see whatever remaining Dove lobby in the White House just getting ignored as Defense Secretary Austin sends more HIMARS to Ukraine. 

 

 

[Beleg85]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just when I thought I had come to grips with how pathetic, petty, racist, violent, and profoundly dumb the Putin regime is, I find something that prove there is still room for growth in my contempt.  How stupid is it to NOT exchange a few prisoners from the republics doing most important to the war effort?  It's almost like Putin is trying to make sure that when the time comes the people of those republics will have even MORE reason to break away from Russian control.  It's like Putin isn't interested in even putting in minimal effort to keep discontent tamped down except for European Russia and Chechnya.

 

Putin is completelly not intrested in those people fates, but it simply is effect of lack of connectivity of those guys within wider Russian system. I don't think Buriats or Kalmuks  discontempt will ever be dangerous for regime (they are too sparcely populated), but disgruntled guys from LDPR's may pose some problems in the very long future.

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If the repeated reports of prisoner exchanges favoring Chechens is true (and I assume it is), what does that say about Putin's level of concern about trouble there?  Especially if he knows that favoring Chechen prisoners to exchange looks bad to the other republics.

It speaks more about Kadyrov resoursefunless rather than Putin preferances. Guys become POW's, their families appeal for help to Kadyrov, who is bounded to help them if he sponsored their war escapades/will do a favour for loyalty if they go there by "military obligation". He calls the strings at Kremlin, for example Zolotov who is probably one of his few allies there (great minds think alike-you can google their photos...). I don't think Putin is necessarly involved there, may not even know about details of whole procedures. But Tsar generally cares about his oprychniki, because his security may lay on them one day.

There was once pretty good Galeev thread about their place in general security apparatus and differencec between legalistic power and charismatic power in Russia and Cechnya, which hit the mark- they are outside of official system, so they are much more flexible and useful for guys at Kremlin than regulars. Some day they may become like Batavian Guard of Roman emperors or Varangians in Byzantium, but we are not on this stage yet.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

Recall those prisoner exchanges where corruption/nepotism was involved, and the outrage that occurred. Poor soldiers with little connections to the rest of the Russian government/society are absolutely worth nothing to exchange, either by the Kremlin or on the mid-high tier of the Russian command looking for some money off of the exchanges. 

Chechens, are at least valuable blocking troops, not to mention part of Kadyrov's retinue. Pilots, likely to come from middle-class or higher ranking personnel, and are actually important militarily. Same for officers. etc. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by FancyCat

[Huba]

VABs are already in Ukraine:

 

[Machor]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

It's rather the other way round: in chess, you hit as hard as possible. There are only two parties - a zero-sum game. Your win is the loss of the other.

@Aragorn2002

I would like to make a correction to the widespread misuse of chess as a metaphor, but not for pedantic reasons - I think it's something worth keeping in mind when playing CM or any other tactical wargame:

Most chess games between grandmasters end in a draw. You do not win at chess by outsmarting your opponent; you win by waiting for him or her to make a mistake, and capitalizing on it. If neither player makes a mistake - and grandmasters rarely make mistakes - the game ends in a draw.

From Wikipedia:

"In chess games played at the top level, a draw is the most common outcome of a game: of around 22,000 games published in The Week in Chess played between 1999 and 2002 by players with a FIDE Elo rating of 2500 or above, 55 percent were draws. According to chess analyst Jeff Sonas, although an upward draw rate trend can be observed in general master-level play since the beginning of the 20th century, it is currently "holding pretty steady around 50%, and is only increasing at a very slow rate". Draw rate of elite grandmasters, rated more than 2750 Elo, is, however, significantly higher, surpassing 70% in 2017 and 2018.

In top-level correspondence chess under ICCF, where computer assistance is allowed, the draw rate is much higher than in the over-the-board chess: of 1512 games played in the World Championship finals and the Candidates' sections between 2010 and 2013, 82.3% ended in a draw. Since that time, draw rate in top-level correspondence play has been rising steadily, reaching 97% in 2019."

[danfrodo]

Corporate leadership has decided that chess metaphors are no longer appropriate and are not to be used going forward.  Everyone please use the approved Lord of the Rings metaphors for this conflict in all future memos.

Sincerely, 

Metaphor Management Committee

Edited July 28, 2022 by danfrodo
typeo

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Recall those prisoner exchanges where corruption/nepotism was involved, and the outrage that occurred. Poor soldiers with little connections to the rest of the Russian government/society are absolutely worth nothing to exchange, either by the Kremlin or on the mid-high tier of the Russian command looking for some money off of the exchanges. 

Chechens, are at least valuable blocking troops, not to mention part of Kadyrov's retinue. Pilots, likely to come from middle-class or higher ranking personnel, and are actually important militarily. Same for officers. etc.

That is because Chechens are mostly warriors not soldiers and their chief is bounded to pay ransom for them as part of their service for him ; it's not a prisoner exchange in Western terms. There were even special rules with approriate ceremonial in North Caucasus for this sort of things (would need to check in several books for specific terms). Except this time money probably goes to Kadyrov, who use this to put some levers in Moskow, a process which by the way may involve bribing several officials. Probably at the end Ramzan earns some money/gain loyalty, especially with younger fighters without connections.

But frankly most surprising is the fact that Ukrainians capture any Chechens at all.

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Everyone please use the approved Lord of the Rings metaphors for this conflict in all future memos

That's the spirit!

Edited July 28, 2022 by Beleg85

[Machor]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Thank you for bringing this to light and posting a warning.

I'm not going to watch it but I believe the video is exactly how you describe it.

 

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am going to opt out on seeing these videos.

Posting this as a warning to those who may want to watch the videos:

The video that Haiduk linked to shows the mutilated body of a Ukrainian soldier. I at least hope that he was already dead before this barbaric act was carried out.

Before I ran into the castration video on Twitter, I had thankfully read warnings from people who had watched it about how traumatizing it was, and I stopped watching it after two seconds - it is extremely disturbing!

[Machor]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Corporate leadership has decided that chess metaphors are no longer appropriate

Everything has its time and place...

You know what that move Russia made towards Kyiv in the beginning of the war was?

Putin's Gambit - where you screw up, then say it's all part of the 'plan'. 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Machor said:

Everything has its time and place...

You know what that move Russia made towards Kyiv in the beginning of the war was?

Putin's Gambit - where you screw up, then say it's all part of the 'plan'. 

"HA!  Fool, I wanted you to take my queen, which was just a feint so I could take two of your pawns at the low cost of just three of my pawns!  HA!  Take that!"

[Huba]

Now, look what the time is: