How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Eddy said:

A second mobilization would be a catastrophe for the Russian economy. This is a far bigger problem than the population not liking it or whether there is enough basic war material etc.

It depends on size of it. Partial mobilization limited to, let's say, 100k most immediatelly needed at frontlines may be "containable" from both economical and political perspective, if pay will be high enough. They don't need to go full Zhukov. Open question is if they can be trained and equipped decently enough.

Ukrainians are playing poker here. This ofensive is really bold move on their part as it may both weaken or actually strengthen Russian war effort. This is one of these examples in history where Cossack genes of our neighbours took over political decisions. Not many militaries would decide on something like that.

[mosuri]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Putin is shown early retirement, replaced by next thug who had just enough daylight between himself and the last regime that we can work with...and we try to negotiate out of this total sh#tshow before the world blows up.  Russia slides further back into China's orbit unless we can somehow renormalize...and we get ready for WW3 and/or the next US Civil war. That is the only other thing I can come up with.

Assuming that the fighting would end with something that is acceptable to Ukraine -- and consequently, something russia will be hard pressed to claim as a victory of any sort -- is there really any other scenario that would work besides putin succumbing to an unfortunate case of sudden death and the successor pinning the blame on everything that went wrong on the gnome tyrant in order to keep things somewhat stable after the transition?

Assuming that the economic situation post war allows a chance for stability, anyways...

 

[Kinophile]

29 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

I've seen suggestions that UKR are now hoping to draw RU reinforcements into known railhead/deployment sites as they move to the Kursk area, which can then be engaged with HIMARS and the rest. Require the RU to create juicy targets in a fairly specific area, and then hit them with mass, precision fire. 

A lot more elegant than killing them one vehicle at a time.

P

Pursuant to this, I'm curious if we should call this a Fluid Phase, rather than Maneuver Warfare (I know we're debating if its actually in a maneuver formatting). 

RUS sucks TM at fluid operations in an open sandbox, but can grind its way through a Static Phase, ie Donbas 2023-24. But UKR have repeatedly shown an aptitude and the mindset for fluid operations in both offence and defence. 

Perhaps s UKR transitioning to static defence in Kursk would be the worst possible move, for the AFU. They only fight in static positioning in Ukraine because they're defending Ukrainian lands and peoples. But it's never been their preferrred style, while it's nie functionally Russias only option.

But Kursk, Belgorod? **** Em. Use them as a play space and flip Russia's traditional advantage (space) on its head. 

Stay loose, fluid, mobile. Push, pull, displace. Maximise the tactical stand-off potential of drones over the wide spaces  and never let Russia get a firm frontline that it can then start pummelling, a la Donbas. 

Fight the way Ukraine wants to fight but on Russian lands. 

Edited August 14 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

I can't help but harp over this, if you go over the timeline of escalation management by Ukraine has just been stunning to see. I think one can reasonably conclude that the Ukrainian position of pushing limits, demanding more support, more ability, illustrating their own tactical and strategic resolve, running over Russia's "red lines" has resulted in the status today, a state of the battlefield that had one gone back to 2022 and vocalized it to any but the most strident of pro-UKR fanatics, one would be stared at as if crazy. 

I mean, Ukraine just drone striked multiple Russian air bases, including Chkalovsky in Moscow, which if this War Zone article is correct, https://www.twz.com/claims-swirl-around-sabotage-raid-on-airbase-near-moscow, contains doomsday nuclear scenario command and control aircraft.

Just reviewing the thread in 2022 will find multiple pages of arguments on whether the West should step over the "red line" and provide tanks to Ukraine, and now in 2024, there are suspicions that a Challenger II got drone killed in Kursk. Actions once considered impossible, that would potentially result in the loss of Western support over WWIII escalation, are now commonplace, without comment. The worldwide public that was worried about WWIII over Western support, now glosses over drones striking Moscow and missiles slamming into Crimea daily. 

I mean i recall the discussion on whether drones entering Russian territory might not set off a flurry of escalation and engender a "true war" mobilization in Russia, a wave of a hundred drones just hit multiple Russian airbases! Of course risks remain for worrisome escalation, and the West remains erring on the side of caution, but any aspect of reviewing Russia's and Ukraine's position ahead needs to account for just how much Russian deterrence has eroded. 

For example, lots of prior discussion on the damage to Russia and Putin's regime over the wild optimistic scenario of Crimea being returned to Ukraine in a future peace deal. Lets imagine a wildly optimistic scenario of Ukraine occupying a decent chunk of Kursk oblast 2 months later, would Russian civilians not question the status of the SMO when Russian territory remains in enemy hands? Would Crimea being returned to Ukraine really be a shocker after Russia absorbs the fact that the SMO cannot apparently stop a "terrorist raid" from occupying and threatening Russian territory such that requires a evacuation of 200,000 people? (the kursk raid cleanup is declared as a anti-terror operation!) 

Of course, that is a highly unlikely extreme scenario, but it illustrates why Russia needs to retake Kursk and restore its territory. It damages Russia's portrayed reality. One aspect of Russian threats about escalatory actions is that the "Russian bear" might wake up with terrible consequences for Ukraine and the West. Ukraine has been intent on poking this bear. We may be worried about a cornered bear, but as the review of the risks of mobilization indicate, Ukraine's salvation may ultimately rely on this bear waking up and then collapsing like so much the rest of Russia's vaunted status. Definitely worrisome escalation, but hey Russia has shown no signs of compromise, nothing to hash out a acceptable peace agreement that does not immediately destroy Western and Ukrainian hopes for a permanent if not entirely satisfiable peace. 

Quote

This base is responsible for the 8th Aviation Division of Special Purpose (8 ADON, to give its Russian acronym) which supports the commanders of the Russian Armed Forces as well as state authorities in wartime. Its fleet of around 100 passenger and transport aircraft is used to move military personnel, including special forces, and support foreign operations, including in Syria.

Even more critical, however, are Chkalovsky’s special mission aircraft, which as well as the aforementioned Il-20M and Il-22 also include the Il-80 airborne command post and Il-82 communications relay aircraft, which have a strategic wartime role, equivalent to the U.S. military’s “doomsday aircraft.”

Among the best-known aircraft assigned to Chkalovsky are those operated by the 223rd Detachment, technically a commercial entity, but previously part of the 8th Aviation Division. It is responsible for around 20 Il-62, Il-76, Tu-134, and Tu-154 aircraft that are used to transport government officials, including President Vladimir Putin himself.

 

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I can't help but harp over this, if you go over the timeline of escalation management by Ukraine has just been stunning to see. I think one can reasonably conclude that the Ukrainian position of pushing limits, demanding more support, more ability, illustrating their own tactical and strategic resolve, running over Russia's "red lines" has resulted in the status today, a state of the battlefield that had one gone back to 2022 and vocalized it to any but the most strident of pro-UKR fanatics, one would be stared at as if crazy. 

I mean, Ukraine just drone striked multiple Russian air bases, including Chkalovsky in Moscow, which if this War Zone article is correct, https://www.twz.com/claims-swirl-around-sabotage-raid-on-airbase-near-moscow, contains doomsday nuclear scenario command and control aircraft.

Just reviewing the thread in 2022 will find multiple pages of arguments on whether the West should step over the "red line" and provide tanks to Ukraine, and now in 2024, there are suspicions that a Challenger II got drone killed in Kursk. Actions once considered impossible, that would potentially result in the loss of Western support over WWIII escalation, are now commonplace, without comment. The worldwide public that was worried about WWIII over Western support, now glosses over drones striking Moscow and missiles slamming into Crimea daily. 

I mean i recall the discussion on whether drones entering Russian territory might not set off a flurry of escalation and engender a "true war" mobilization in Russia, a wave of a hundred drones just hit multiple Russian airbases! Of course risks remain for worrisome escalation, and the West remains erring on the side of caution, but any aspect of reviewing Russia's and Ukraine's position ahead needs to account for just how much Russian deterrence has eroded. 

For example, lots of prior discussion on the damage to Russia and Putin's regime over the wild optimistic scenario of Crimea being returned to Ukraine in a future peace deal. Lets imagine a wildly optimistic scenario of Ukraine occupying a decent chunk of Kursk oblast 2 months later, would Russian civilians not question the status of the SMO when Russian territory remains in enemy hands? Would Crimea being returned to Ukraine really be a shocker after Russia absorbs the fact that the SMO cannot apparently stop a "terrorist raid" from occupying and threatening Russian territory such that requires a evacuation of 200,000 people? (the kursk raid cleanup is declared as a anti-terror operation!) 

Of course, that is a highly unlikely extreme scenario, but it illustrates why Russia needs to retake Kursk and restore its territory. It damages Russia's portrayed reality. One aspect of Russian threats about escalatory actions is that the "Russian bear" might wake up with terrible consequences for Ukraine and the West. Ukraine has been intent on poking this bear. We may be worried about a cornered bear, but as the review of the risks of mobilization indicate, Ukraine's salvation may ultimately rely on this bear waking up and then collapsing like so much the rest of Russia's vaunted status. Definitely worrisome escalation, but hey Russia has shown no signs of compromise, nothing to hash out a acceptable peace agreement that does not immediately destroy Western and Ukrainian hopes for a permanent if not entirely satisfiable peace. 

 

Fair points.  I think both Ukraine and the West have carefully managed escalation in a frog boiling exercise on this one.  I think if Challenger IIs, HIMARS and drone strikes into Russia and all that happened back in summer of '22, we very may well have had a dangerous escalation.  By taking a deliberate and cautious approach - which many derided as everything from cowardice to incompetence - this war has been risked managed very well.  For example, a significant cross border incursion in Fall of '22 may very well have triggered a big mobilization because support for this war in Russia was still high and exhaustion had not set in.  In '24...different story (maybe).

Conversely, there is a simple fact that Russia cannot "win" this war, yet they cannot "lose this war...by too much".  Only the most fanatic pro-UKR fanatics are ready to dismiss a Russian Federation in complete and uncontrolled freefall, which could very well be the outcome of a total Russian defeat and regime collapse.  So that gradual escalation also offered Putin some offramps...which he of course has ignored, but more importantly it continues to offer those who may depose him offramps.

I have said since the beginning that this is a very complex and delicate strategic situation.  The West cannot simple go in and establish a no-fly zone on Day 1 or we risk some very bad escalation risks.  Now a no-fly zone in year 3 after steady signaling and justification...?  Same for western troops in Western Ukraine in support.  Western control of part of the Black Sea.  All of these are elements of a slow and steady compression that avoids forcing hasty decisions. 

I totally agree, whoever is steering this whole thing has done an outstanding job of "managing Russia."  Now if we can get to a finish line in one piece, it will be one for the history books. 

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, omae2 said:

Putin will not retire he feels responsible for this thing, my totally armchair opinion that he pushed this thing in 2022 because he wanted to done with it before retirement.

What we need to keep in mind that this war is not only about Ukraine if you check his speech in the start of the war he really wanted to push out western influence from the eastern part of Europe. Two months before the war russia demanded that NATO get back to its 97 borders. Leaving out Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and im too drunk to check on all the others. This was about a new world order from the get go. The goals did not changed since. IF the westerners give russia a peace that can be portrayed as a russian victory they will use it to get more meat into the war machine. Further more some eastern European countries political parties will use it to spread anti western propaganda. That the west is weak it cannot defend us we need another defender. And the russians gonna exploit this.

The west cannot afford to let russia have anything that resemblance a victory. They have to loose. They have to feel that this was a waste of life and money so they don't do it again. Otherwise within ten years you gonna see a new a worst conflict.

I think you're correct on the basics. The underlying reason for this conflict is that Putin felt that Russia was 'unrightfully to her status' outdone by western actors and he had/has big plans to readdress that issue. He was probably on the same drugs covid medicine Trump was using ;-D, but given Putin's context he was/is able to get away with more wild stuff. Russia has been busy with 'loss aversion' since March '22 and is not unlike gamblers at the one-armed bandits who think they can get their losses back if they just put more money into the machine. Unfortunately in this context the house doesn't always win without shedding its own blood, and Putin has a lot of blood and money he can spill.

Edited August 14 by Lethaface

[Haiduk]

17 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok,ok…now this is something.  It is but a hint and would need a lot more evidence but if the RA has lost air denial, and the UA can gain air superiority…now that is something.  I am struggling to remember another CAS strike in this war.  Attacking over a barely manned frontier is one thing.  Breaking the air deadlock would be something else entirely, even for a short period.

Very early days but this would be one to watch.

Really to hit border town Tyotkino our jet didn't have to fly into Russian airspace, the bomb could be dropped over Ukranian territoiry. BTW UKR helicopter fly in Kursk oblast - in first days there was a video with our Mi-8 flight.

Alas, 12th of August during strike mission, we lost MiG-29 of 40th "Ghost of Kyiv" aviation brigade and pilot Olexandr Mihulia.

One of previous Mihulia's flights on 4th of August also was a bombing mission with AASM

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Something I hadn't thought about.

Quote

Working on Russian territory brings new challenges, especially in the sphere of communication. Starlink doesn’t work. The Ukrainians can use radios (or even Russian sim cards), but it makes them trackable.

https://x.com/OliviaKortas/status/1823633540166152338

 

[Haiduk]

Hm... Not only 80th air-assault and 82nd air-assault, but 95th air-assault too operates in Kursk oblast. Also we know about 22nd and 116th mech.brigades and 92nd assault brigade (at least part of it), 225th separate assault battalion of Territorial Defense Command. Maybe more will come

 

Edited August 14 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

As some of us might have noticed, a next step has unfolded in the investigation into the Nordstream sabotage.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2533281-waarom-duitsland-als-enige-land-wel-blijft-jagen-op-nord-stream-saboteurs

It is one of the few/only subjects I feel that this forum in majority stepped over information and arguments and believed what they wanted to believe.

The sponsors/beneficiaries behind the sabotage are still unknown, so fundamentally all is still up in the air. But some things people don't like to consider are now more in the open to consider again, if I may say so.

I for one think it is prudent to classify some of the original information about this attack, which hinted at a 'Ukrainian direction', as serious + trustworthy. Mind, there is zero proof or indication that Presidential level/Zelensky was involved. It could also still be something in which Russia has meddled. But it also could be something in which Russia didn't mettle.

Some might feel like just stepping over the whole thing and leave it be. But that would be similar to telling an American supporting Biden and having info that Ukrainian entities might somehow be involved in an assassination against Trump, to just step over it and leave it be; it's probably just internal kompromat.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Pursuant to this, I'm curious if we should call this a Fluid Phase, rather than Maneuver Warfare (I know we're debating if its actually in a maneuver formatting). 

RUS sucks TM at fluid operations in an open sandbox, but can grind its way through a Static Phase, ie Donbas 2023-24. But UKR have repeatedly shown an aptitude and the mindset for fluid operations in both offence and defence. 

Perhaps s UKR transitioning to static defence in Kursk would be the worst possible move, for the AFU. They only fight in static positioning in Ukraine because they're defending Ukrainian lands and peoples. But it's never been their preferrred style, while it's nie functionally Russias only option.

But Kursk, Belgorod? **** Em. Use them as a play space and flip Russia's traditional advantage (space) on its head. 

Stay loose, fluid, mobile. Push, pull, displace. Maximise the tactical stand-off potential of drones over the wide spaces  and never let Russia get a firm frontline that it can then start pummelling, a la Donbas. 

Fight the way Ukraine wants to fight but on Russian lands. 

This is all true, but only if the Ukrainians have the forces, and the logistical capability to keep playing the game. If they have really have the forces, they need to start hooking towards Belgorod, or preferably just behind it. But would probably take ten times the forces they have committed so far, and I don't think they have that much, or anything close to it. I would love to be wrong, but as Steve just brought up the risk over extension are quite high.

I firmly believe it will work just fine to start digging in at some point soon, and make the Russians take it back EXPENSIVELY. And they will be wrecking Russian territory while they do it, instaed of Ukrainian land.

Edited August 14 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Completely insane fight, which took place on 30th of April 2024. Two soldiers of 4th National Guard Rapid reaction brigade "Rubizh" defends own position near Spirne village (Siversk direction). In the first attack Russians could land into crater - during the skirmish most of them were killed and wounded, but one of UKR soldiers was also killed by enemy FPV. Single defender still fight with support of drones and rare mortar/AGS fire - they repelled four more attacks, when one Russian sqaud was landing by one and approaching to position until reinforcement arrived and cleaned the trench, were Russians already had a time to leak. 

Totaly 23 Russian soldiers were killed and 2 wounded (UKR drones dropped grenades and finished off survivors), one MTLB was destroyes, three otehr light armor were damaged. We lost one soldier Danylo Biliuk. In his honor 4th brigade issued now the video about this fight

  

 

Edited August 14 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

As some of us might have noticed, a next step has unfolded in the investigation into the Nordstream sabotage.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2533281-waarom-duitsland-als-enige-land-wel-blijft-jagen-op-nord-stream-saboteurs

It is one of the few/only subjects I feel that this forum in majority stepped over information and arguments and believed what they wanted to believe.

The sponsors/beneficiaries behind the sabotage are still unknown, so fundamentally all is still up in the air. But some things people don't like to consider are now more in the open to consider again, if I may say so.

I for one think it is prudent to classify some of the original information about this attack, which hinted at a 'Ukrainian direction', as serious + trustworthy. Mind, there is zero proof or indication that Presidential level/Zelensky was involved. It could also still be something in which Russia has meddled. But it also could be something in which Russia didn't mettle.

Some might feel like just stepping over the whole thing and leave it be. But that would be similar to telling an American supporting Biden and having info that Ukrainian entities might somehow be involved in an assassination against Trump, to just step over it and leave it be; it's probably just internal kompromat.

It's not been overlooked here at all.  What we've seen, however, has not been convincing in any direction.  The article you linked to does not provide anything more than we knew last year.  Much of it contradictory or disputed.

Also keep in mind that even if Ukrainians were involved that doesn't mean they were acting on behalf of Ukraine, even unofficially.  Russia has plenty of Ukrainian agents, past and present. 

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

2024, there are suspicions that a Challenger II got drone killed in Kursk.

I would say its very inconclusive. The first few edits are almost certainly a challenger 2 in Kursk (man that's something crazy to think about: Western MBTs in Kursk!), but the video is edited into four different parts. The hit location looks nothing like the original shots, nor can we make out what is even being targeted in the first place. To me it looks like a bunch of ammo cooking off.

I suspect this is just Russian propaganda, they do this all the time with their lancets. 

They have been releasing Lancet footage like crazy recently, and a fair number of them are visibly seen hitting trees or missing entirely. I view it as desperation to show the domestic audience that 'we are doing something' When in reality Ukraine brigades are still causing chaos. Still a big tactical problem of course, but one that is perhaps overstated. 

Edited August 14 by ArmouredTopHat

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The optics of this sort of thing is... well... pretty damned good!

Steve

Interesting that this territory, where our forces now operating as far as in beginning of 20th century were settled by Ukrainian population - since midst of 17th century these were lands of Sumy cossack regiment (regiment in Ukriane of 17th c was not only a military, but territorial-administrative unit like modern oblast).

There were several videos already from Kursk oblast, where grandmas talk with UKR soldiers in quite clear Ukrainain language often without Russian accent. Many of villages in current battlezone have Ukrainian names or just respelled on Russian manner. 

Edited August 14 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

If UkrPost will implement of the ideaa of such poststamp like somebody issued in Twitter, it probably will be not less popular that the one with "Moskva" cruiser.

The writing of UKRPost "Well, who did this?"

And writing on the poststamp "Kneel down in front of Ukraine!"

Edited August 14 by Haiduk

[ArmouredTopHat]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

If UkrPost will implement of the ideaa of such poststamp like somebody issued in Twitter, it probably will be not less popular that the one with "Moskva" cruiser.

The writing of UKRPost "Well, who did this?"

And writing on the poststamp "Kneel down in front of Ukraine!"

If you were to tell me in 2014 that one day Ukrainians would be taking POWS in Kursk alongside a literal thousand square miles I would of laughed. How far the AFU have come. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

A snapshot of what's going on from the Russian perspective (Ukrainian opsec continues to remain pretty watertight) 

Seems like Ukraine are taking full advantage of the chaotic Russian response. Its hard to believe they are still having major coordination problems between different units this far in. Not that I am complaining of course! 

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting that this territory, where our forces now operating as far as in beginning of 20th century were settled by Ukrainian population - since midst of 17th century these were lands of Sumy cossack regiment (regiment in Ukriane of 17th c was not only a military, but territorial-administrative unit like modern oblast).

There were several videos already from Kursk oblast, where grandmas talk with UKR soldiers in quite clear Ukrainain language often without Russian accent. Many of villages in current battlezone have Ukrainian names or just respelled on Russian manner. 

time for a referendum!

[ArmouredTopHat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1esawqs/russian_forces_released_helicopter_guncam_footage/

With regards to friendly fire. Russians are desperate enough to be releasing footage of their attack helicopters firing on their own Kamaz trucks for whatever reason. 

[Haiduk]

Just now, ArmouredTopHat said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1esawqs/russian_forces_released_helicopter_guncam_footage/

With regards to friendly fire. Russians are desperate enough to be releasing footage of their attack helicopters firing on their own Kamaz trucks for whatever reason. 

Not only KAMAZ, they also attacked two own Msta-S SP-howitzers on the move - one was destroyed, other abandoned and later turned out in the rear of our troops.

[Lethaface]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's not been overlooked here at all.  What we've seen, however, has not been convincing in any direction.  The article you linked to does not provide anything more than we knew last year.  Much of it contradictory or disputed.

Also keep in mind that even if Ukrainians were involved that doesn't mean they were acting on behalf of Ukraine, even unofficially.  Russia has plenty of Ukrainian agents, past and present. 

Steve

Not overlooked certainly, but from my POV the experience was 'Russia must be behind this' and some (not bad) sources were disqualified out of hand while pointing to Germanies kompromat potential becoming dependent on RU gas in the first place. 

I agree it is still no smoking gun, but the story about the boat and the divers which was valued as probably fantasy by (imo) several otherwise wise people, is getting 'more traction' if I may be un-Dutch indirect :). 

Certainly could still be a Russian directed operation, but it may also not be. That's a real contingency and better not to be surprised may such a thing turn out to be true; fortunately I think Germany has already stated whatever it was they still support Ukraine in it's fight against war of aggression. Anyway there will still be something to solve.

Edit: the new part of the story is that German authorities have independently verified information from foreign (and domestic) sources and came to the conclusion that there is enough hard evidence to send out an arrest warrant for an Ukrainian individual who is an experienced deep diver, who was/is living in Poland. However Poland stated Germany has made a mistake in issuing the arrest warrant and didn't supply it to the border guard equivalent, so now the individual has managed to flee from Poland to Ukraine. Ergo, PL doesn't seem to be very motivated to cooperate with the German fact finding / justice mission. Germany looks at it like it was an act of sabotage against critical infrastructure.
Being partly Dutch owned, we also have some looks but being pragmatics I guess we also feel that as it wasn't going to operate again anyway and not an attack against 'Dutch infrastructure' it doesn't really matter much anymore apart from being vigilant about the same thing not happening again by whomever.

Edited August 14 by Lethaface

[ArmouredTopHat]

To give you just a rough idea of how far Ukraine could actually be in certain regions that have not been registered on the map yet. This progress is truly incredible. 

[Haiduk]

On Sevasleyka airbase reportedly was destroyed fuel storage with T-6 kerosene - unique fuel, developed specially for MiG-31 heavy supersonic interceptors. Only this kerosene type allows MiG-31 to gain the speed for launching Kinzhal hypersonbic missile. 

UKR drone, likely shot down fell onto planes stand on Sevasleyka airfield. Likey some jets could be damaged

On airfield Borisoglebsk in Voronezh oblast is maintannence hangar was hit

Probably destrtoyed and damaged aircraft on Borisoglebsk airfield

Edited August 14 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

I've seen suggestions that UKR are now hoping to draw RU reinforcements into known railhead/deployment sites as they move to the Kursk area, which can then be engaged with HIMARS and the rest. Require the RU to create juicy targets in a fairly specific area, and then hit them with mass, precision fire. 

A lot more elegant than killing them one vehicle at a time.

P

Exactly what I hope to see.