How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

If the US backs off on sanctions and renormalizes relations with Putin’s Russia, the damage to the international order will be pretty much irreversible. It essentially would mean the US based international rules system is dead. The repercussions of that are world breaking.  

That is precisely my analysis of the outcome. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, The Steppenwulf said:

This is quite true of course. But let's not overlook that this nebulosity is largely explained by election campaigning. A phenomena not exclusive to the US, as it also strongly characterised the recent UK elections over economic policy and EU relations. So much so that the UK press repeatedly challenged the lack of honesty of all the main parties' respective manifesto positions. And manifesto commitments in UK politics are arguably more detailed and indelible than their US party platform equivalent/s.

Nevertheless, is it not the case that once in govt, reality bites? Whatever is considered, suggested or indicated during campaigning, hits hard tarmac once it actually lands. That is govt, but due to the nature of how US administration is structured it's much more prevalent as the default character. 

And with specific regard to the Republican party presently, let's look back to Trump's first round out in the Whitehouse and consider the disconnect between his election rhetoric and actual policy implementation. Nebulous rhetoric is one thing, Realpolitik another.

This is quite true. The first Trump administration was notable in just how little it actually got done, despite promising to change everything. Of course we have seen what US political paralysis looks like with respect to this conflict and it is not pretty. 

[Letter from Prague]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If the US backs off on sanctions and renormalizes relations with Putin’s Russia, the damage to the international order will be pretty much irreversible. It essentially would mean the US based international rules system is dead. The repercussions of that are world breaking.  

Yup. We know. Trump winning is a great success for enemies of the West, which is why they are getting him on the throne in the first place.

It's a tragedy that while Russia might be failing on the battlefield, by smart (if evil) manoeuvring in the political space they will get a complete victory and achieve everything they ever wanted.

We truly live in a rotten world, but at least the climate change will end us soon.

Edited July 20 by Letter from Prague

[cesmonkey]

Rybar says 4 Ukrainian UAVs impacted by no aircraft were lost:

 

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Rybar says 4 Ukrainian UAVs impacted by no aircraft were lost:

 

Rybar is a Kremlin mouthpiece at this point, he got the message when they threw Ghirkin in prison. The one thing that seems absolutely given in this war is that everything is on tape, and no one can keep their mouth shut, so we will know soon enough.

I mean yesterday we had a Ukrainian video of a done strike on an SPG, and the Russians were kind enough to post a BDA video, with color commentary. That is a beyond silly amount if data.

Edited July 20 by dan/california

[Holien]

2 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said:

Nebulous rhetoric is one thing, Realpolitik another.

See the response from @billbindc

It is no longer the Republican party but a cult and the folk that will be in power can not be compared in ANY way with the first term of Trump...

[sburke]

Ball bearing shortages?  History repeating itself?

Russian military transport fleet hit by defective ball bearings scandal (msn.com)

Businessmen were said to have sourced ball bearings of unknown origin and, after falsifying documentation, delivered them to the Aviastar plant in Ulyanovsk, which produces the Il-76 aircraft, from 2017 to 2022. The defective bearings caused a series of failures. Five Il-76 aircraft were grounded, deemed a detriment to the national interest by the Ministry of Defense of Russia and a blow to Russia’s defense and security.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This is quite true. The first Trump administration was notable in just how little it actually got done, despite promising to change everything. Of course we have seen what US political paralysis looks like with respect to this conflict and it is not pretty. 

There may be other alternatives in the works to at least provide funding.

Europe kicks off $1.65 billion transfer to ukraine from russian assets (msn.com)

The European Fund for Ukraine will receive its first transfer of approximately $1.65 billion later in July. The money comes from the revenues of Russian assets, reports Rzeczpospolita. Western countries hold Russian assets with a total value of about $275 billion.

[IMHO]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

if the US backs off on sanctions and renormalizes relations with Putin’s Russia

It will never happen in the next 30-50 years at least -- Putin or after-Putin. Russia is now an existential threat by now. Switching the name on plaque won't change anything.

Edited July 20 by IMHO

[IMHO]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

first Trump administration was notable in just how little it actually got done, despite promising to change everything

1. Not a Trump supproter, don't vote in the US, just looking from outside.But by the word of it enough of you don't do either (facepalm).
2. Hoiw many major foreign policies installed by Trump Biden admiinistratation took away (successfully)? May be sweeeping Chinese import tariffs, may be blackmailing EU? Has Biden revoke them? No and I can go on and detail. IMHO US business elites are using Trump's "remarkable" PR-front for what they wanted to achieve long time ago.

Edited July 20 by IMHO

[MikeyD]

Not to mention Trump turning his back on South Korea and embracing North Korea. What leadership! And sanctions on Russia will be thrown out the day after Trump has another one of his infamous no-Americans-allowed secret meeting with Putin.

[Battlefront.com]

13 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Mashovets today:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2047
 

 

I'm confused because lately he's been talking about how close the Russians are to being unable to keep on attacking.  Yet these comments by him appear to be talking about Ukrainian forces near ready to collapse.  Any indications about who his comments were directed towards?

Steve

[IMHO]

9 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

sanctions on Russia will be thrown out the day after Trump

1. Never evere. Trump or no Trump. For the next 30-50 years. I'm not joking. This is one major major part of the problem. Containment will be / is strategic. For 30-50 years to go at least. Much beyond the question of the current combat. They, negotiators, can offer something, yet one should never trust it because fundamentlally that might be against RU national interests (no relation to dimitry simes )

[Letter from Prague]

27 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Not to mention Trump turning his back on South Korea and embracing North Korea. What leadership! And sanctions on Russia will be thrown out the day after Trump has another one of his infamous no-Americans-allowed secret meeting with Putin.

That to me is the most bizarre thing ever. I would expect the fascists behind Trump would want strong American Empire,  as a leader of the (somewhat less free) world. But their actions are going the opposite direction.

2 minutes ago, IMHO said:

1. Never evere. Trump or no Trump. For the next 30-50 years. I'm not joking. This is one major major part of the problem. Containment will be / is strategic. For 30-50 years to go at least. Much beyond the question of the current combat. They, negotiators, can offer something, yet one should never trust it because fundamentlally that might be against RU national interests (no relation to dimitry simes )

One strike of a pen of a US President and they're gone. You would be right in a sane world, but that is very much not the world we live in.

Edited July 20 by Letter from Prague

[The Steppenwulf]

15 minutes ago, Holien said:

See the response from @billbindc

It is no longer the Republican party but a cult and the folk that will be in power can not be compared in ANY way with the first term of Trump...

Okay maybe, I agree that Trump is now a cult figure that the entire Rep campaign is hinged upon, but then this is typical of presidential politics anyway. But I still resist taking too seriously about what's said in the heat of election rhetoric.

Bringing back into this a clear and substantive point, when Trump states that "he will call Putin, and end the war in 24 hours" then I'd ask (as I've questioned myself) how does Trump think he can achieve this, given Russia's immoveable terms, set against Ukraine's quite reasonable approach to a settlement, as set out by Zelensky? 

This is an on-point example I'm referring to regarding the yawning gap between rhetoric and the hard reality of international politics. Not only does the entire US Administration (it goes beyond Trump at this stage) come face-to-face with a hard choice about whose side the US is really on, but how does the US negotiate its way round the intense political scrutiny from all stakeholders (home and abroad) about the far reaching consequences arising from such Russian appeasement, and where lies in this board-flipping quagmire is there some kind of future tangible benefit for the US? 

This is why, the more I've thought about it, the more I just see hard tarmac!

[IMHO]

41 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

One strike of a pen of a US President and they're gone.

1. Trump or no Trump restriction will never be resiscinded. For the next 30-50 years and I'm not joking about years.
2. Unfortunately that takes away the major chip off the negotianion table.
3. Every day "one waits for a better deal" costs lives. A LOT those. 

Edited July 20 by IMHO

[ArmouredTopHat]

Some very interesting technology demonstrators recently unveiled. Some very promising concepts on hand as well. Not the biggest fan of Redeffect as stated previously but he covers this stuff pretty well.

Certainly not all roses mind, some questionable role overlap of loitering munition capability / unnecessary 130-140mm guns. Still interesting to see what might be on hand and what defence companies are experimenting with with the whole concept of interchangeable main guns. 

Leclerc Evo is also apparently on the verge of being ready for production if its approved (its not actually a demonstrator unlike these other vehicles but a life extension program) We might see it within a few years in service if its accepted. Seeing the Panther turret being able to be fitted to a Leopard 2a4 chassis is also very interesting, certainly appealing when it comes to cost if you happen to operate leopard platforms and want to upgrade. 




Its also really interesting to see the emphasis on UAS protection at this point, meshed with APS. 

Video also shows some excellent test footage of 30mm air burst downing groups of drones, certainly seems like that is the system being chosen for counter drone on these platforms and for good reason. Though there are also some 7.62 platforms also being used. Both seem to be handling drones quite well when equipped with the appropriate detection platforms. Been trying to get my hands on more test footage. 

I'm also not convinced that drone manoeuvring really protects them from these systems either, looking at some test footage at least. These are fast moving drones jinking around and they are still being shredded. Interesting to say the least. Saturation seems the only real way to overwhelm the system. 

Really do think we might some some very effective C-UAS systems down the line within a few years. 

 

Edited July 21 by ArmouredTopHat

[dan/california]

 

37 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Some very interesting technology demonstrators recently unveiled. Some very promising concepts on hand as well. Not the biggest fan of Redeffect as stated but he covers this stuff pretty well.

Certainly not all roses mind, some questionable role overlap of loitering munition capability / unnecessary 130-140mm guns. Still interesting to see what might be on hand and what defence companies are experimenting with with the whole concept of interchangeable main guns. 

Leclerc Evo is also apparently on the verge of being ready for production if its approved (its not actually a demonstrator unlike these other vehicles but a life extension program) We might see it within a few years in service if its accepted. Seeing the Panther turret being able to be fitted to a Leopard 2a4 chassis is also very interesting, certainly appealing when it comes to cost if you happen to operate leopard platforms and want to upgrade. 




Its also really interesting to see the emphasis on UAS protection at this point, meshed with APS. 

Video also shows some excellent test footage of 30mm air burst downing groups of drones, certainly seems like that is the system being chosen for counter drone on these platforms and for good reason. Though there are also some 7.62 platforms also being used. Both seem to be handling drones quite well when equipped with the appropriate detection platforms. Been trying to get my hands on more test footage. 

I'm also not convinced that drone manoeuvring really protects them from these systems either, looking at some test footage at least. These are fast moving drones jinking around and they are still being shredded. Interesting to say the least. Saturation seems the only real way to overwhelm the system. 

Really do think we might some some very effective C-UAS systems down the line within a few years. 

 

So the other sides leans harder on cluster munitions, and mines...

[IMHO]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So the other sides leans harder on cluster munitions, and mines...

1. No, all that that the other side wants is a bit more money in YT kick-backs -- that's all 
2. Sorry for trying yo educate the author of the video yet have you ever personally seen a tank mine in RL?  

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, IMHO said:

1. Not a Trump supproter, don't vote in the US, just looking from outside.But by the word of it enough of you don't do either (facepalm).
2. Hoiw many major foreign policies installed by Trump Biden admiinistratation took away (successfully)? May be sweeeping Chinese import tariffs, may be blackmailing EU? Has Biden revoke them? No and I can go on and detail. IMHO US business elites are using Trump's "remarkable" PR-front for what they wanted to achieve long time ago.

Seriously, c’mon it is called an internet search engine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us/factbox-with-strokes-of-pen-biden-overturns-trump-policies-and-fights-covid-19-idUSKBN29Y2QM/

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-regulatory-changes-in-the-biden-era/

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/joe-biden-donald-trump-foreign-policy-track-record-what-to-know/3667547/

What matters to this thread is the foreign policies with respect to Ukraine and this war.  I am going to have to go with “disrupted and incoherent” for Trump because this is what we have seen so far on this subject.

Edited July 21 by The_Capt

[IMHO]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

One strike of a pen of a US President and they're gone

1. The problem is Russia will ever be percieved as a strategic threat be it the current President or the next President. And he current / next Congress / Senate. It's unmovable, they should no buy for in negotiants but anything happens 
2. See if Russian negotiators will trade something important for the ruse of cancelling sanctions. Firstly it's impossible due to p.1, secondly remember the history of JCPOA

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, IMHO said:

1. No, all that that the other side wants is a bit more money in YT kick-backs -- that's all 
2. Sorry for trying yo educate the author of the video yet have you ever personally seen a tank mine in RL?  

Dude, maybe go sober up a bit?  You just seem to be in here to pick a fight with anyone and everyone.

[The_Capt]

52 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

So the other sides leans harder on cluster munitions, and mines...

Same old song - solve for drones and all will be well.  Can’t solve for drones as the largest effect is ISR. Even if you can get a magic wizard gun, detection and engagement by the raft of other long range systems that come to bear when spotted are currently unsolvable.

And round and round we go again.  

A reminder, this is an Ukraine War thread and not an industry trade show.  If people have future of war implications based on what we are seeing in Ukraine, feel free to jump in.  But a bunch of corporate vids so we can argue about tanks again…well I am out.

[IMHO]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Can’t solve for drones as the largest effect is ISR. Even if you can get a magic wizard gun, detection and engagement by the raft of other long range systems that come to bear when spotted are currently unsolvable.

FPVa are the main damage delers now on UKR side. So ISR ***IS*** and will be ever be primary mission for drones yet the life is different now.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, IMHO said:

FPVa are the main damage delers now on UKR side. So ISR ***IS*** and will be ever be primary mission for drones yet the life is different now.

Ya think?  We just watched drones clear a freakin trench…no sh#t life is different now. You appear late to the party but there are those who think the air can be swept clean of drones so we can get back to good old fashion direct fire gun fights.  I for one think that ship has sailed, and along with Steve, think that investing billions into big, hot and very expensive direct fire platforms is pretty much on par with ordering more sabres after the Battle of the Somme. But there are entrenched opposing opinions who seem bent on dredging up this old debate.