How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

This is getting to be really interesting.  Stalin-level purges, not just firing them but putting them on trial.  What the heck is going on?  And what will it mean for the war I wonder??

These events should always be considered in the context of the ongoing faction battle inside Russia. The FSB was on the back foot for a while after their failures at the start of the war, but now the DoD hasn't been able to get the job done the FSB has seen a chance and is exerting control again. That Putin is letting it happen could mean he realises he will need the FSB more than the military in the immediate future.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

These events should always be considered in the context of the ongoing faction battle inside Russia. The FSB was on the back foot for a while after their failures at the start of the war, but now the DoD hasn't been able to get the job done the FSB has seen a chance and is exerting control again. That Putin is letting it happen could mean he realises he will need the FSB more than the military in the immediate future.

Which is a smart bet.  The military isn't an internal security tool, therefore it isn't what Putin needs if he is to maintain power against a domestic threat.  On the other hand, more than a little bit of the military was complicit with the Prig mutiny.  The military also was found unreliable in 1991.

The flip side of this is that the FSB is not an external security tool.  In fact, when it was misused for that purpose in 2022 it led to the disastrous war that Russia is in now.

Now, let's use some observational logic here.

Russia is currently in a grueling and extraordinarily difficult ground war that has been going on for years and is draining Russia of lives and treasure.  The military may be doing a bad job of managing the war, but it is the tool designed for it.  Yet Putin is apparently replacing it with the FSB which isn't the right tool for this sort of job AND has recently demonstrated that fact. 

It does seem like Putin is getting ready to switch emphasis on internal security over external adventures.  And when he does that, he wants to make sure the military won't become a problem.

Ether that or he simply thinks giving the FSB a leadership role in the military will change the situation on the ground.  That seems unlikely, but of course dictators often delude themselves when desperate (and even when they aren't!).

Steve

[danfrodo]

47 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

These events should always be considered in the context of the ongoing faction battle inside Russia. The FSB was on the back foot for a while after their failures at the start of the war, but now the DoD hasn't been able to get the job done the FSB has seen a chance and is exerting control again. That Putin is letting it happen could mean he realises he will need the FSB more than the military in the immediate future.

Good thoughts there, @Offshoot, thanks.  I guess my hope is that the FSB decides it doesn't need Putin anymore.  

[FancyCat]

Perhaps Putin just has an affinity for the FSB? Its interesting despite their failure in Ukraine, the rumored reshuffles never occurred accordingly for the FSB. 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

 

 

Putin seems to have decided to put the FSB 100% in charge of the war, and more or less everything else. Also ISW is PROFOUNDLY unimpressed with Putin' latest ceasefire feelers.

•  

Galeotti has a more measured take:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-putin-purging-his-generals/

Worth pointing out...this is not necessarily going to improve Russian war fighting at all. As Galeotti notes, Belousov has no loyal cadre to put into position to carry out his initiatives on the ground. Just the long arm of FSB. There might be less theft but morale, effectiveness and initiative are not created by audits.  

 

 

[billbindc]

 

 

[FancyCat]

Unsure if posted.

Quote

A Bradley appreciation video. The video shows a Bradley IFV from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade damaged by RPG and FPV strikes in the Soloviove area by Russia's 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade. A second Bradley evacuates the crew of the 1st Bradley, all of whom appeared to survive, while coming under artillery fire and withstanding a strike from an anti-tank weapon.

https://t.me/Alekhin_Telega/10335

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Galeotti has a more measured take:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-putin-purging-his-generals/

Worth pointing out...this is not necessarily going to improve Russian war fighting at all. As Galeotti notes, Belousov has no loyal cadre to put into position to carry out his initiatives on the ground. Just the long arm of FSB. There might be less theft but morale, effectiveness and initiative are not created by audits.  

 

 

So his take is this is purely an anti-corruption move. Obviously that is part of what's going on, but as the author points out the whole system, from Putin on down.  There's no chance of "changing the culture" when the culture is stealing.  A culture that Putin damned well knew all about long ago yet did nothing.  So what is really going on?

If this is not some sort of realignment of the basic power structures of the Kremlin, then it could be Putin is simply concerned about the economy and trying to stretch Russia's financial resources.  Which would be interesting to know more about!

Steve

[Sojourner]

Maybe the bigger crime wasn't that they were taking bribes but rather that they weren't giving Putin his share.

In a mafia state, bad things happen if you don't pay the vig.

[ZellZeka]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So your theory is that if Kyiv falls Poland, the Baltics, Finland and Sweden are going to do what?  Switch sides?  If we lose in Ukraine it is definitely a western defeat a la Vietnam (but no where near as personal) but we can live with it.  There hasn’t been a single signal out of any NATO nation that the alliance is in doubt if Ukraine falls.  In fact I suspect it will be quite the opposite, we will likely double down on the one mechanism that keeps Russia in check.  In fact the entire theory of an Eastern Europe schism in light of a Russian victory doesn’t make any sense but you keep rolling it out like Armageddon.  Further, you seem to imply that it is an outcome so bad that we should be willing to start playing fast and lose with the nuclear equation.  

You do realize that you are promoting reckless courses of action that if they slide are going to hurt Ukrainians first?  If Russia either loses control, has a misunderstanding or simply says “nope” Ukraine is very likely going to the demonstration venue.

As usual you are going off without a shred of proof behind your own opinion.  Show me one declaration from any of the states you mention that they are willing to start taking the risks you are advocating or that Ukraine is the central issue in their continued partnership.  FFS we are putting a Bde in Latvia, I am sure of Ukraine falls the first thing then Latvians are going to do is tell us to leave.

You are over inflating a Ukrainian loss to the point that WW3 makes perfect sense. This is not good analysis, it is hyperbolic propaganda.  Of course we do not want Ukraine to lose.  We have spent billions trying to stop that from happening.  But we also do not want an uncontrolled escalation…and my proof is self-evident by the lack of western air or land power direct involvement in this war.  Ukraine is simply not worth this whole thing expanding or escalating into a broader regional or global conflict - we already did that sort of thing in 1914 and do not need a repeat.

Think logically about what the fall of Ukraine will lead to:

The Russian army will reach the borders of countries such as Hungary and Slovakia. The population of these countries, having seen enough of the atrocities of the Russians in Ukraine, will demand from their governments only one thing: to negotiate peace with Putin as quickly as possible and to exclude even the possibility of a Russian attack on these countries. Guess which of the Hungarian and Slovak politicians is well acquainted with Putin and can come to an agreement with him? Of course it's Fico and Orban. These guys will receive total support from their population. (There is no other explanation for Orban’s desire for the fall of Ukraine and the emergence of hordes of orcs on the borders of Hungary). I think there is no need to say what conditions for peaceful coexistence Russia will put forward to these countries. Of course, this will be a withdrawal from NATO. And the people of these countries will willingly agree to this demand, especially after they are convinced of the West’s inability to consolidate in the face of the impending threat.

The problem is not only in Hungary and Slovakia. In every country there are pro-Russian politicians who eagerly await Putin's victory as evidence of the weakness of the West. Take the Czech Republic for example. Pro-Russian sentiments here are no less strong than in Hungary or Slovakia. The same is true in Bulgaria. After Putin’s victory, these politicians will gain an undeniable advantage in a number of countries. These politicians will strive to leave NATO and enter into an alliance with Russia (this is logical, no one wants to be with the loser, everyone wants to be with the winner). 

The role of the war in Ukraine in the existence of the Current Order in Europe should not be downplayed. Ukraine's defeat could cause significant changes in eastern Europe.

Edited May 26 by ZellZeka

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/23/2024 at 6:16 PM, Haiduk said:

Allegedle plan of Russian troops in current operation on the north of Kharkiv oblast. 

Troops of 6th CAA and 11th Army Corps from the north capture Vovchansk and advance south along the water reservoir of Siverskyi Donets river. Simultainoulsly (or with some delay) troops of 1st Tank army comes from the east to Oskol river and cut off the road Shevchenkove - Kupiansk. Next is encirtclement of Kupiansk group of UKR troops. 

Russian advance in Vovchansk now is bogged. But from the east Russians attack through captured Kyslivka village along railroad toward Kupinask-Vuzlovyi.

 

Wow, been quite a while since we've seen us some Giant. Red. Arrows. Of. DOOMdoomdoomdoomdoom(c) on the Thread!

[cesmonkey]

Interesting bit in the daily update from StratCom of the ZSU / AFU StratCom

https://t.me/AFUStratCom/24298

Quote

According to detailed information, yesterday the enemy launched 10 missile strikes with 13 missiles, 40 airstrikes (in particular, using 56 anti-aircraft missiles), 1,001 kamikaze drone strikes (of which 994 were fpv) on the positions of our troops and populated areas.

 

[Tux]

2 hours ago, ZellZeka said:

Think logically about what the fall of Ukraine will lead to:

The Russian army will reach the borders of countries such as Hungary and Slovakia. The population of these countries, having seen enough of the atrocities of the Russians in Ukraine, will demand from their governments only one thing: to negotiate peace with Putin as quickly as possible and to exclude even the possibility of a Russian attack on these countries. Guess which of the Hungarian and Slovak politicians is well acquainted with Putin and can come to an agreement with him? Of course it's Fico and Orban. These guys will receive total support from their population. (There is no other explanation for Orban’s desire for the fall of Ukraine and the emergence of hordes of orcs on the borders of Hungary). I think there is no need to say what conditions for peaceful coexistence Russia will put forward to these countries. Of course, this will be a withdrawal from NATO. And the people of these countries will willingly agree to this demand, especially after they are convinced of the West’s inability to consolidate in the face of the impending threat.

The problem is not only in Hungary and Slovakia. In every country there are pro-Russian politicians who eagerly await Putin's victory as evidence of the weakness of the West. Take the Czech Republic for example. Pro-Russian sentiments here are no less strong than in Hungary or Slovakia. The same is true in Bulgaria. After Putin’s victory, these politicians will gain an undeniable advantage in a number of countries. These politicians will strive to leave NATO and enter into an alliance with Russia (this is logical, no one wants to be with the loser, everyone wants to be with the winner). 

The role of the war in Ukraine in the existence of the Current Order in Europe should not be downplayed. Ukraine's defeat could cause significant changes in eastern Europe.

While I don’t wholly agree with the above being a likely scenario (for example I’m not convinced that any amount of “logical thinking” would lead a country to think leaving NATO will make Russia less likely to invade them), it is undeniably an unpleasant one.

Where I think your argument falls apart is in implying that we should risk actual nuclear war in order to avoid it.

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[hcrof]

39 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

By "effectiveness was low" he means "Russia has been chased out of the western black sea so there is a distinct lack of targets"...

Interesting though - I wonder how effective they are at land attack?

[Letter from Prague]

4 hours ago, ZellZeka said:

Take the Czech Republic for example. Pro-Russian sentiments here are no less strong than in Hungary or Slovakia.

Excuse me?

[ZellZeka]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

While I don’t wholly agree with the above being a likely scenario (for example I’m not convinced that any amount of “logical thinking” would lead a country to think leaving NATO will make Russia less likely to invade them), it is undeniably an unpleasant one.

Where I think your argument falls apart is in implying that we should risk actual nuclear war in order to avoid it.

Study the mood of the population of Eastern Europe. I believe you will not dispute the fact that the residents of Slovakia and Hungary quite legitimately elected anti-Western politicians such as Orban or Fico. these politicians are known for their anti-Western/anti-NATO statements and yet they have significant support in their countries. The entry of Russians onto the borders of these countries will only strengthen their anti-Western sentiments.

 

On the contrary, I argue that not a single NATO country, in the event of a Russian nuclear strike on another NATO member country, will lead to a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia. No one wants to risk a nuclear retaliatory strike from Russia. For example, if Russia strikes Poland, the United States will under no circumstances launch a nuclear strike on Russia. This fact in no way strengthens faith in NATO

[ZellZeka]

5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Excuse me?

Do you want to say that the moods of the Czechs differ from the moods of the Slovaks who are close to them in spirit and worldview?

[The_Capt]

44 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

On the contrary, I argue that not a single NATO country, in the event of a Russian nuclear strike on another NATO member country, will lead to a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia. No one wants to risk a nuclear retaliatory strike from Russia. For example, if Russia strikes Poland, the United States will under no circumstances launch a nuclear strike on Russia. This fact in no way strengthens faith in NATO

And this is when I stop listening.  If this were remotely true then what is stopping Russia from conducting strikes into Poland right now? This is the complete BS line of thinking that Russia is somehow some unstoppable juggernaut that only Ukraine can possibly stand up to, while the weak kneed western powers are too scared to do anything other than support Ukraine.  This sort of nonsense is the mirror of the pro-Russian crap that we get drive bys on every month or so.  It has no basis in facts and is basically propaganda lines.

I am about as enthusiastic to being a target of Ukraine IO campaigns as I am being a target of Russian ones.

Edited May 26 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Do you want to say that the moods of the Czechs differ from the moods of the Slovaks who are close to them in spirit and worldview?

I think he is saying that you really have no idea what you are talking about.  Let’s just throw some facts on this little theory of yours.  Here is Hungary’s trading profile:

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/hun

So your theory is that Hungary is essentially going to walk away from the west and jump in with Russia, who is currently under an enormous sanctions regime that definitely won’t be lifted any time soon.  

“The most common destination for the exports of Hungary are Germany ($35.5B), Italy($8.02B), Romania ($7.94B), Slovakia ($6.78B), and Austria ($6.32B).“

[Tux]

No, sorry, there’s no convincing argument here:

46 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Study the mood of the population of Eastern Europe. I believe you will not dispute the fact that the residents of Slovakia and Hungary quite legitimately elected anti-Western politicians such as Orban or Fico. these politicians are known for their anti-Western/anti-NATO statements and yet they have significant support in their countries.

Granted, for the sake of this discussion. 

46 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

The entry of Russians onto the borders of these countries will only strengthen their anti-Western sentiments.

Assertion/speculation.  Needs support.

46 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

On the contrary, I argue that not a single NATO country, in the event of a Russian nuclear strike on another NATO member country, will lead to a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia. No one wants to risk a nuclear retaliatory strike from Russia. For example, if Russia strikes Poland, the United States will under no circumstances launch a nuclear strike on Russia. This fact in no way strengthens faith in NATO

On the contrary to what?  Also, this is baseless assertion again (feel free to add a base for it though).  Also, you don’t get to introduce what turns out to be an assertion as an “argument” and then immediately leap to calling it a “fact”.

40 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Do you want to say that the moods of the Czechs differ from the moods of the Slovaks who are close to them in spirit and worldview?

Overall, given that you’re the one who identified “logical thinking” as the basis for your argument, your grasp of how rational inductive reasoning works seems to be lacking.

 

tl;dr - You don’t have a rational argument here.  You have a stream of thought which ends in a conclusion that you find meaningful but you cannot expect anyone else to find it convincing.

Edited May 26 by Tux

[Tux]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So your theory is that Hungary is essentially going to walk away from the west and jump in with Russia, who is currently under an enormous sanctions regime that definitely won’t be lifted any time soon.

I mean at this point he could just answer “yes” and his ‘argument’ would be no less rational.

[ZellZeka]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am about as enthusiastic to being a target of Ukraine IO campaigns as I am being a target of Russian ones.

Exactly. Ukrainian propaganda is no less powerful than Russian propaganda and just as much harms the Western understanding of the war. For example, I have not seen any facts in the Western information field that Zelensky’s popularity has fallen so much in Ukraine that Ukrainians are almost ready to openly oppose him. The opinion that if it were not for Western countries and Zelensky, the bloodshed would have stopped long ago is becoming more and more popular in Ukraine. 

Please note that refusal to participate in NATO in no way means refusal of economic cooperation. For example, Russia has never been a member of NATO, but Russia’s economic cooperation with NATO countries has always been enormous. Why should Hungary abandon economic cooperation with the West after leaving NATO?

Edited May 26 by ZellZeka