How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Russians today's morning conducted next strike on Ukrainian power infrastructure and natural gas storages complex near Stryi city in L'viv oblast (Kinzhals were launched there)

As result of attacks Kharkiv again has a lack of electricity, several substations hit in Odesa, L'viv, Zaporizhzhia, Khasrkiv oblasts. Alas, thermal power plant in Trypillia, Kyiv oblast  - destroyed. 

Statsistic of today's attack:

20 Kh-101 cruise missiles - 17 intercepted

6 Kinzhals - no interceptions (at least 4 on L'viv oblast)

12 S-300 - no interceptions (all on Kharkiv oblast and Kharkiv city)

4 Kh-59 - 2 intercepted (all on Zaporizhzia oblast)

40 Shakheds - 37 intrcepted

Unkile 2022-2023 power infrastructure strike campaign, when Russians mostly attacked large substations and transformer sites on territories of power plants - direct strikes on generation objects where relatively rare, that now they concentrated on destroying exactly of generation capabilities and alas have success in this. Mainly using S-300, Kinzhals and Iskander-M missiles, which unreachable for our AD

Result of Russian attack in Trypillia - burning thermal power plant, which mainly generated the energy for southern part of Kyiv oblast and part of Cherkasy amd Zhytomyr oblasts. Reportedly Kh-101 strike, but other sources say that were Shakheds. By the way this thing hit and set on fire the turbines.

Meanwhile US officials: UKR strikes on Russian refineries may affect global energy situation. Ukraine should concentarte on military targets.

Russian energy infrastructure is a civilain target...

And wow - Republican senator asks her why UKR shouldn't strike on Russian infrastructure if Russia strikes on Ukrainian, but she continues own bla-bla-bla about "Ukraine claimed own high democracy standards and we concerning about strike on civilian infrastructure"

Not surprising

Dr. Wallander was President & CEO of U.S. Russia Foundation which promotes US investments in Russia.

 

Just some craziness from MAGA:

Ukraine wages a war against Christianity

 

Edited April 11 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

But here and good news. After despearted interview of UKR Foreign Affairs minister about "Patriots", something moved in Eurpore

 

[Holien]

Maybe the White House is trying reverse psychology on the Republicans...

A cunning plan? (I doubt it)

[Haiduk]

Next Russian attempt to enter to Chasiv Yar from Ivanivske. Column is destroyed. Video of 225th separate assault battalion

Su-25 over Chasiv Yar. Initially there was information this is Russian jets, but many told this is Ukrainian. Still unknown, so just "Su-25 over Chasiv Yar"

Rare episode of Ukrainian aviation uses gliding bombs. Russian position in Ivanivske got GBU-39

 

Edited April 11 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Elements of 59th mot.inf brigade,  109th and 111th TD brigades pushed Russians back from NW part of Pervomaiske village, taking back a school almost in the center of the village. Russian troops seized almost all it several days ago, advancing to Karlivla. This is southern flank of Avdiivka sector

  

 

[Haiduk]

In last days Russians activated on Staromayorske - Urozhaine section (Berdiansk directions). Mostly a war of small groups for forward positions. Here is Ukrianian troops of 58th mot.inf brigade turned back own previously lost position in 1 km south from Urozhaine

M113 approaches to threnches, shells it and land assault squad. Assaulters eleiminte Russians with grenades and HE charges, then ran back to M113, which already brought fresh group, which will hold position 

 

[FancyCat]

When EU parliament is doing better than the House of Representatives, I hope Speaker Johnson looked at the eclipse without protection. What a ridiculous mind boggling genuinely bad look for the Republican Party, Congress and the U.S. At this point, a pure Ukraine bill should be able to pass. The fact it cannot, despite a majority of republicans, democrats, a bipartisan majority in Congress, alongside a majority of the American people, due to one man, the speaker, and I suppose, one presidential candidate, how can any ally of the U.S have faith in us? I mean, let’s be blunt, support for Ukraine is bipartisan and popular and not a fringe position. The fact that despite this, we are unable to pass the bill will not reassure any American allies, nor our enemies, nor neutrals to trust us.

[Holien]

54 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile US officials: UKR strikes on Russian refineries may affect global energy situation. Ukraine should concentarte on military targets.

The more I think about this, the more I am wondering if it is tied to the potential missile attacks to be made on Israel and the potential for that region to get very messy very quickly.

That whole region is a tinder box and the Biden team are trying to keep a lid on it with no help from the extremists in control of Israel.

 

[Battlefront.com]

BBC article detailing a small part of Russia's underhanded means of keeping its meat waves stocked with flesh.  The reporting focuses on duping poor and uneducated Indians to come to Russia for "security guard" jobs, but then instantly going to training and soon after the front.  Nothing new, but the article provides some texture:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68767470

Steve

[sross112]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well except for the part where we have operationalized a technology that can find and hit a flying target the size of a bird with a very small munition at crazy scales.  What do we suppose the impact of that technology is going to have on conventional ground units?  That level of ISR alone means nothing can move without being picked up for kms.  Individual infantry are screwed, vehicles may as well be battleships.  The changes such technology would bring would be f#cking profound.

So there is no going back after this with or without UAS.  Unmanned, plus ISR, plus processing power, plus miniaturization, plus cheap production are all conspiring against our entire current theories of warfare. They have been for decades while we tried to ignore them.  So we can do “hope and denial” or we can can see the shift for what it is and adapt.

 

 

So the way I think through this is that the country with the biggest drone budget wins. Whoever can field the most UAV and C-UAV will control the battlespace and everyone else is toast. Therefore if you aren't the largest economy in the world you need to figure something else out. So the natural response will be nuclear proliferation as that is the only trump card left in the deck at that point and if you don't have nukes you are defenseless. 

I guess this is a good thing for defense budgets as all other systems can be scrapped and most countries will only have to maintain a few ICBMs. I reckon we can all look forward to a unprecedented period of peace among mankind or nuclear annihilation. 

[The_Capt]

54 minutes ago, sross112 said:

So the way I think through this is that the country with the biggest drone budget wins. Whoever can field the most UAV and C-UAV will control the battlespace and everyone else is toast. Therefore if you aren't the largest economy in the world you need to figure something else out. So the natural response will be nuclear proliferation as that is the only trump card left in the deck at that point and if you don't have nukes you are defenseless. 

I guess this is a good thing for defense budgets as all other systems can be scrapped and most countries will only have to maintain a few ICBMs. I reckon we can all look forward to an unprecedented period of peace among mankind or nuclear annihilation. 

Until someone trips up the nuclear equation. I mean if C-UAS can find a small drone and kill it one has to assume ABM and other nuclear delivery systems can and will be blunted.  So we will move to the next WMD, nano or self generating AI autonomous unmanned…or both.  Grey Goo here we come.

We are talking another shift in the nature of warfare…the third by my count.  

[sross112]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Until someone trips up the nuclear equation. I mean if C-UAS can find a small drone and kill it one has to assume ABM and other nuclear delivery systems can and will be blunted.  So we will move to the next WMD, nano or self generating AI autonomous unmanned…or both.  Grey Goo here we come.

We are talking another shift in the nature of warfare…the third by my count.  

You are just a ray of sunshine today!!

In the meantime, Maginot Line fortifications might come back into season. How else do you defend a line other than covering it in several feet of reinforced concrete with screened apertures to keep the drones out?

[Battlefront.com]

I'm sure at some point someone will field something that mostly does what is needed for C-UAS.  We've been discussing this for years and the only thing that seems viable is UAS dog fighters that go after other UAS.  However, I don't think we're anywhere close to being there.

This raises the question... how is a C-UAS supposed to work if the enemy is almost undetectable and can operate in large numbers over a massive volume of space?  Even if C-UAS is itself fully automated, with swarms flying proactively in case they spot something, spotting is a real bugger to deal with.

A couple of pages ago we discussed now damned difficult it is to detect a small, fast moving object that can hug the ground and terrain features.  Even detecting energy signatures is tricky because of background clutter and the fact they don't have that much energy to make a signature with.  Plus, with autonomy there wouldn't be a radio signal to latch onto.

Decades of military R&D has been spent on radar tech has not produced a system sensitive and practical enough to suit C-UAS needs.  Certainly not anything that is practical to scale.  Yet this is a prerequisite to successfully defeating UAS threats.

This is why I just don't see a solution coming about any time soon.  There's some fundamental limitations that haven't been overcome for even legacy systems, so why should we expect a magical solution now?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

France is saying the quiet part out loud... navies need to get ready to be attacked by things other than nation states:

https://www.politico.eu/article/french-rear-admiral-jacques-mallard-france-navy-prepares-high-intensity-warfare/

And another Politico article.  US Army's top commander for NATO assesses that Russia's frontline strength has increased since the war started (470k now vs. 360k to start with) despite the massive losses.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/11/christopher-cavoli-russian-military-losses-00151718

Steve

[Ts4EVER]

So basically the war is lost or at least unwinnable mid-term?

[omae2]

2 hours ago, Holien said:

The more I think about this, the more I am wondering if it is tied to the potential missile attacks to be made on Israel and the potential for that region to get very messy very quickly.

That whole region is a tinder box and the Biden team are trying to keep a lid on it with no help from the extremists in control of Israel.

 

That's cant be the reason behind this. Israel has no border with Iran so they only going to shoot at each other with long range systems and some lightly armed paramilitary group will attack on land. If i would try to make some brain fart i would say that some US figure thinks that a constant russian threat to Europe is better than a beaten russia. Or just plain stupidity. I mean from personal experience i can say that humans are dumb as ****. But i don't move around the level these peoples live.

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

So basically the war is lost or at least unwinnable mid-term?

Based on the comments of Russia's force size increase?  Force size, in and of itself, doesn't really mean much either way.  All it means is that it is very unlikely that Russia's frontline force will collapse due to a lack of manpower and equipment, which it previously came close to doing at least twice in this war so far.

From a territorial standpoint this war has never been "winnable" from Ukraine's standpoint without either a Russian collapse or a Moscow decision to withdraw (in full, including Crimea).  The latter will likely NEVER happen, even in a collapse scenario.  So really, as with every conversation we've ever had about this, from a territorial standpoint collapse is a requirement for "winning" from a territorial standpoint.

Similarly, the only way Russia will get what it wants from a territorial standpoint is for Ukraine to collapse totally and utterly.  That doesn't seem likely, so it appears Russia won't get what it wants on the ground any time soon.

I don't see the frontline moving in any major way in either side's favor.  Whatever modest hopes I had for that were dashed last summer.

Steve

[Ts4EVER]

Yeah, that is what I meant with "un-winnable mid-term". That seems kinda bleak though, WW1 style pointless trench warfare without a clear way out.

[MikeyD]

I wonder what weapons Russians are equipping their meat wave soldiers with, considering they're expecting them to die within minutes. A 50 year old rifle and a couple clips of ammo?

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Holien said:

Maybe the White House is trying reverse psychology on the Republicans...

A cunning plan? (I doubt it)

Very Baldrik-ian if so...

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of course not.  I was simply illustrating that you can indeed pack a lot into a single truck. 

Steve

Ok, well, using that logic I will now simply demonstrate how you can pack a lot of artillery ammunition into a single truck

https://images.app.goo.gl/hPN4JLEuvudZ8aTo7

Checkmate, as I believe the kids say.

 

Edited April 11 by JonS

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

Ok, well, using that logic I will now simply demonstrate how you can pack a lot of artillery ammunition into a truck

https://images.app.goo.gl/hPN4JLEuvudZ8aTo7

Checkmate, as the kids say.

 

By linking a bunch of pictures of small arms pallets?  Somebody call a nurse….

[JonS]

Yeah, weird, right? Now, why would I do that? Oh, right, because Steve seems to think that micro drones are a useful proxy for large drones that can carry a reasonable HE payload.

Small things pack small. Micro drones and small arms ammo are examples of this.

Heavy things pack heavy. Artillery ammunition is the canonical example of this.

Bulky things pack bulky. Load carrying drones are an example of this.

Load carrying drones are a lot lighter than artillery ammunition, but they are also bulkier. Ignoring that doesnt make the arguments in favour of drones more compelling.

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is why I just don't see a solution coming about any time soon.

Echolocation? Bats use it to track small, fast moving objects.

Granted, not something we're likely to see soon, but possibly something worth looking into.

[kimbosbread]

18 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, weird, right? Now, why would I do that? Oh, right, because Steve seems to think that micro drones are a useful proxy for large drones that can carry a reasonable HE payload.

Small things pack small. Micro drones and small arms ammo are examples of this.

Heavy things pack heavy. Artillery ammunition is the canonical example of this.

Bulky things pack bulky. Load carrying drones are an example of this.

Load carrying drones are a lot lighter than artillery ammunition, but they are also bulkier. Ignoring that doesnt make the arguments in favour of drones more compelling.

That is totally fair and I at least appreciated the ammo fort picture, but I think you are wrong and I have numbers.

For reference, Switchblade 600 is almost 20kg (and almost 50kg with tube launcher + fcs), and is 15cm diameter x 130cm long. I couldn’t find a reference for the launch tube, but it looks to be ~30cm diameter from photos online. Definitely not 50cm. See attached photo.

I think we can agree that you could pack a bunch of these sized tubes vertically, so 30x30 cm in a 5x10 grid in a pickup truck bed, for example. Or you could angle them a bit, if space permits. Unless you have LC70 pickup, you couldn’t have 50kg tubes of course, but a real truck can hold more weight.

EDIT: This packaging extends to all sorts of things, for example packing Stinger and Javelin and Spike in vertical tubes. These systems are all similar sizes, really.

Edited April 11 by kimbosbread