How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[G.I. Joe]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Remains of "Aeropract" A-22 small aircraft, turned into drone was recovered on the impact place in Yelabuga

Maybe it would be better to dismount chassis and launch the plane with catapult - instead of chassis weight to put more HE

 

It probably would be technically feasible to catapult launch an A-22 at maximum takeoff weight without overstressing the airframe, but my guess is they didn't feel it was worth the extra effort to rig up such a system. The equipment that could be stripped out during the drone conversion (seats, harnesses, radios, instruments, control columns, rudder pedals, etc.) probably already weighed more than the undercarriage. Having a look at the POH (downloaded from here), a stock A-22LS already has room for 200 kg / 440 lbs of payload, the drone conversion would probably already get that to around 225 kg / 500 lbs without major airframe modifications.

[Offshoot]

The manufacturer of the Caesar is talking it up and saying that it's characteristics are helping it to survive better on the modern battle field compared to other self-propelled guns

In Ukraine, ‘shoot-and-scoot’ tactics helping Caesars survive
 

Quote

 

Ukraine has lost less than 10% of the truck-mounted Caesar howitzers it received from France and Denmark, with greater mobility resulting in a higher survival rate than for some other self-propelled or towed systems, according French manufacturer KNDS Nexter.

Losses for some other self-propelled or towed systems in Ukraine’s war with Russia amount to nearly 30%, the company said in a statement to Defense News, without providing specifics...

“Use of drones and loitering munitions has become a real threat 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the front, where the Caesar operates,” Nexter said in the statement. “Its light weight and ability to leave its position in less than a minute to avoid counter-battery fire are therefore major assets.”

 

 

Edited April 3 by Offshoot

[Offshoot]

The HUR making some bold claims

‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack
 

Quote

 

Senior officials from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service indicate it is plotting a third attempt on the bridge, after two previous attempts to blow it up, claiming its destruction is “inevitable”.

...

The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”.

...

Ukraine planned to strike more Russian targets, Skybytskyi claimed, with undercover agents playing a part. Some were “Russians with Ukrainian roots”; others were non-ideological Russians recruited in exchange for payments. The “pool” was so large the HUR could pick and choose candidates for sabotage operations, he said.

 

 

Edited April 3 by Offshoot

[panzermartin]

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-the-ukraine-war/

So the denazification is not a total lie after all but it is known that war attracts the most primitive/far right elements from both sides. Probably serves each side's government well if the extremists elements eliminate each other. 

[alison]

"Denazification" is and always has been a total lie insofar as the idea that it is a legitimate justification for invasion.

On the other hand, it's no secret that there are right-wing extremists in Ukraine.

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

What do you mean “Even worse …about it?” The day that someone, anyone, “can do something about it” is the day this country ceases to exist as a Republic guided by our Constitution! It is extremely pitiful when someone complains that an opposite point of view, no matter how distasteful it is to another should be forbidden. The oath I swore for over 60 years both in the military and in Federal Government service “To protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies, both foreign AND DOMESTIC….” Is deeply ingrained in me. The First Amendment protections of free speech and freedom of association doesn’t apply to just you alone, and I will fight to the death to preserve YOUR right to speech and association even when I think you’re a left-wing nut case! Will you guarantee the same to me and others? It sure doesn’t look it from your statement.

 

 

But isn’t a “domestic” enemy someone whose position is forbidden?  There weren’t a lot of protections granted communists in the US back during the Cold War.  For example, if one was a firm communist they were not going to be employed within the defence department.  Roll forward to modern era, devoted fundamentalist Muslims did not fare much better.  This “freedom” concept really appears to be selective when viewed through a historic lens.  Sure, a US citizen can be free to express whatever they wish, but to do so without consequences from both private and public sectors has clearly been demonstrated as false.  Once a society allows for negative consequences as a result of free speech or association, it is no longer “free”.  This inconsistency appears migratory and frankly unfairly applied historically.  Try being a black civil rights movement in the 1930s in the South.  Not a whole lot of freedom of speech and association in that period for that demographic. LGBTQ in the 50s?

So what, as it relates to this war and situation?  Within the US, and other modern democracies, I do not think this is a case of “autocratic control” but you are very correct in calling it out as a slippery slope.  I think it is a case of “when does speech and association become a threat to national security?”  When is it honest political discourse in an open and fair democracy, and when does it become too dangerous to tolerate?  Obviously sharing information on how to build and deploy a WMD should not be covered in “freedom of speech”.  Nor should sharing of classified information.  But when does political discourse cross that line?

The US currently has elected officials who are pretty actively supporting a foreign powers agenda.  To the point that they are blocking military aid to an ally in the middle of an existential war.  At what point does this stop being “open and free political discourse” and become “paid foreign lies by a domestic enemy?”

I honestly do not know.  I have watched my country wrestle with this.  I think our “hate speech” laws are in fact dangerous.  But clearly there is a point, even within free democracies where we cannot tolerate free expression.  For this war, where that line is drawn could very well impact its outcome and what the region looks like. 

Edited April 3 by The_Capt

[riptides]

10 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

What do you mean “Even worse …about it?” The day that someone, anyone, “can do something about it” is the day this country ceases to exist as a Republic guided by our Constitution! It is extremely pitiful when someone complains that an opposite point of view, no matter how distasteful it is to another should be forbidden. The oath I swore for over 60 years both in the military and in Federal Government service “To protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies, both foreign AND DOMESTIC….” Is deeply ingrained in me. The First Amendment protections of free speech and freedom of association doesn’t apply to just you alone, and I will fight to the death to preserve YOUR right to speech and association even when I think you’re a left-wing nut case! Will you guarantee the same to me and others? It sure doesn’t look it from your statement.

 

 

Don't get all flustered.

There was little to no rebuttal on that one. 

I'll not be drawn into political debate on free speech equating that someone can support the idiocies and viciousness she promotes without repercussions.

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

This is not the first time we have seen evidence that the Russians are depleting their Soviet legacy reserves to stay in this war.  The slow but steady downgrading of equipment and troop quality is consistent.  The impact on this war are yet unknown.  Are Ukraine and Russia in a “race to the bottom”?  Not if the West can get its act together and ramp up production of modern systems.  We can easily crush Russia in a modern force generation war, the real question is whether or not we are willing to do it.

The “so what?” for the next war is that Russia as a regional threat (side stepping the nuclear equation) has been demonstrably reduced.  The spectre of hordes of T62s and T55s is laughable in this day and age. Russian military production is constrained and they are not going to be able to rebuild a modern offensive force quickly.  In fact we are not even sure what a modern offensive force really looks like but I do feel safe to say it is not whatever Russia has left.  Next gen will demand higher levels of technology: unmanned air and ground, distributed space based capability, AI supported C4ISR, PGMs everywhere.  All that takes a lot of investment and pivoting for a Russian military industrial complex designed to make tanks and IFVs.

This projects Russia into a serious security dilemma after the war: completely re-tool after the war, or stick with former conventional metrics and try to rebuild what hey had on 21 Feb 22.  In both cases they are heavily burdened by western sanctions and pressures.  Neither is a great option or easily done in anything less than a decade.

Another metric that Russia has essentially “lost” this war - they have likely dramatically reduced strategic post-war options as a result of this as opposed to expanding them.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-the-ukraine-war/

So the denazification is not a total lie after all but it is known that war attracts the most primitive/far right elements from both sides. Probably serves each side's government well if the extremists elements eliminate each other. 

Where have you been for the past 3369 pages?  This isn't news.  It wasn't news back in 2014 when Russian trolls were amplifying Right Sector and Azov extremists. 

So yes, it is a lie.  A huge one.  All countries, including Greece, have some significant problems with right wing extremists because Humanity seems genetically predetermined to keep producing them.

I ask you... if Turkey pointed to the Golden Dawn and invaded Greece right now to denazify it, would you consider that be "a total lie"?  Because I sure as F would.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dawn_(Greece)

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The US currently has elected officials who are pretty actively supporting a foreign powers agenda.  To the point that they are blocking military aid to an ally in the middle of an existential war.  At what point does this stop being “open and free political discourse” and become “paid foreign lies by a domestic enemy?”

It's especially tricky because it's not clear cut as to the intentions.  For the most part I think the Republicans are actively opposing Ukraine support for the simple reason that the Democrats want it.  This has been a problem with the GOP for some time now, and it's getting worse.  Look at what they did to the border security compromise.  Just about everything the Democrats offered up was something the GOP has been demanding.  Did they get everything?  No, and nor should they since they don't speak for 100% of America.  But what happened?  They torpedoed something they claimed was their top priority.  Which indicates to me that it was never a real priority to solve, it was just a vehicle to win elections.

There's also the problem that the GOP's core agenda is, for its own domestic reasons, in concert with many of Moscow's aims.  Cutting back foreign assistance has always been favored by the populist wing of the GOP, even though up until now arms packages were usually exempted.  Catering to Joe Sixpack's short term interests is also a strong tradition within the GOP, so railing against anything that might be perceived as filling up a gas guzzling truck is on their agenda.  And let's not forget isolationism.  A huge and long standing force in American politics that comes from deep seated emotions which, sadly, people like Hitler and Putin take full advantage of.

The result of all of this is it's not very easy to point a finger as to why the GOP is behaving the way it is.  Some members are clearly pro-Putin, others are just anti-Democrat, and others still are generally anti-democracy.  Even if an individual is all three, they should be allow to speak.  That's not the problem with our society.  The problem is a large percentage of the population isn't able or capable of understanding that speech, yet are perfectly happy to go along with it because it makes them feel good.

Steve

[panzermartin]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Where have you been for the past 3369 pages?  This isn't news.  It wasn't news back in 2014 when Russian trolls were amplifying Right Sector and Azov extremists. 

So yes, it is a lie.  A huge one.  All countries, including Greece, have some significant problems with right wing extremists because Humanity seems genetically predetermined to keep producing them.

I ask you... if Turkey pointed to the Golden Dawn and invaded Greece right now to denazify it, would you consider that be "a total lie"?  Because I sure as F would.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dawn_(Greece)

Steve

It has happened before with Cyprus in 1974 where Turkey blamed the right wingers for harassing turkish Cypriots and invaded Donbas style. Of course it was just the pretext...But somehow international community had to accept it. Now it's history... 

Of course many countries have problems with neo nazists. We almost reached a point where GD had a significant 7-8 %presence in the parliament and in the streets. Not proud of it. That was during the deep social and economic crisis where usually extreme elements come out and manipulate the anger/desperation of the people. 

The difference here is that Greek Golden dawn isn't trained and armed by western funds and weapons and embedded in the armed forces. They don't have a paramilitary division in some aegean island. They are all currently in jail serving a 10+ sentence for criminal organization charges. I can't guess what will happen in a war crisis but that's the way it is now. 

That being said , I understand where your comment is coming from. I didn't mean to imply this alone could justify invading a country. My denazification remark bordered a little on sarcasm. 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, alison said:

On the other hand, it's no secret that there are right-wing extremists in Ukraine.

Can you give an example of such extremists and what is their extremism? 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Can you give an example of such extremists and what is their extremism? 

Not worth getting into because a) it isn't relevant and b) it is a Russian talking point that we've already debunked many times already.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The difference here is that Greek Golden dawn isn't trained and armed by western funds and weapons and embedded in the armed forces.

It probably would be if Greece was invaded by a power hostile to NATO.  And you would probably be OK with it if they were part of the reason your country wasn't completely overrun.

Context is everything.

Life is full of cause and effect.  Russia caused a war, the effect is right wing extremists are tolerated out of desperation.

Since 2014 right wing extremists have been fighting for and against Russia.  Many of them foreigners to both countries, but aligned ideologically.

It is strange to see right wing Westerners fighting right wing Easterners when the fact is both groups are ideologically identical in most respects.

Steve

[Ales Dvorak]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not worth getting into because a) it isn't relevant and b) it is a Russian talking point that we've already debunked many times already.

Steve

Haiduk is bored.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Haiduk is bored.

Don't worry!  Ukraine will sink a ship or blow up a refinery any minute now

Steve

[panzermartin]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It probably would be if Greece was invaded by a power hostile to NATO.  And you would probably be OK with it if they were part of the reason your country wasn't completely overrun.

Context is everything.

Life is full of cause and effect.  Russia caused a war, the effect is right wing extremists are tolerated out of desperation.

Since 2014 right wing extremists have been fighting for and against Russia.  Many of them foreigners to both countries, but aligned ideologically.

It is strange to see right wing Westerners fighting right wing Easterners when the fact is both groups are ideologically identical in most respects.

Steve

Agreed

Yeah it's puzzling they fight each other, since they are both white and believe in white supremacy and are probably fans of Nazi Germany too but these are groups that never went too deep with their reasoning I guess. 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

Agreed

Yeah it's puzzling they fight each other, since they are both white and believe in white supremacy and are probably fans of Nazi Germany too but these are groups that never went too deep with their reasoning I guess. 

"extremist" and "reasoning" are kind of mutually exclusive.

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Where have you been for the past 3369 pages?  This isn't news.  It wasn't news back in 2014 when Russian trolls were amplifying Right Sector and Azov extremists. 

So yes, it is a lie.  A huge one.  All countries, including Greece, have some significant problems with right wing extremists because Humanity seems genetically predetermined to keep producing them.

I ask you... if Turkey pointed to the Golden Dawn and invaded Greece right now to denazify it, would you consider that be "a total lie"?  Because I sure as F would.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dawn_(Greece)

Steve

When the unified right wing National Corps slate only manages to get something like 2.5% of the total vote in Ukraine while rightest parties dominate Russia then this discussion gets very silly. 

[sburke]

ruh roh!!

China's Quiet Push Into Russia's Far East Puts Putin in a Pickle (msn.com)
 

Quote

 

Though Beijing and Moscow have touted their "unlimited partnership" on the global stage, a far-eastern corner of Russia has caught China's eye.

The border region of Primorsky Krai has seen a surge of Chinese farmers, and their growing economic clout is outcompeting locals, reported Nikkei, a Japanese newspaper.

The region, ceded to Russia by the Qing dynasty in 1860, has become a subject of interest for policymakers in Beijing and Chinese nationalists. Last year, the government decreed the country's maps should include Haishenwai—the Chinese name for Vladivostok, the administrative center of Primorsky Krai—and the Chinese names of seven other far-eastern Russian locations.

Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, who claims Ukraine has always been part of the Russian nation, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping has held the restoration of perceived lost territory high on his agenda for the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
China has pledged to someday bring self-governed Taiwan into the fold. It has also claimed most of the South China Sea, where Beijing's "historical rights" pit it against the Philippines and other neighbors.

Amid a gloomy economic outlook for Hegang, a former coal boomtown in China's northeast, more Chinese farmers may soon make their way to Russia, Nikkei reported.

"The concern for 'Yellow Peril' in the Russian Far East is not new. It has existed for decades, if not centuries, due to the vast imbalance of population on the two sides of the border," Yun Sun, the director of the Stimson Center's China Program, told Newsweek.

She added: "The concern is the inflow of Chinese people will challenge the Russia control. I don't think the sovereignty issue is still up for negotiation, but how to manage the Chinese farmers on the ground will be a thorny issue."

A 2021 study published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology found that in some cases, the presence of Chinese farms and sales to Chinese-owned businesses boosted local farmers' incomes.

 

 

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

ruh roh!!

China's Quiet Push Into Russia's Far East Puts Putin in a Pickle (msn.com)
 

 

Quote

 

https://forumvostok.ru/en/about/#:~:text=POPULATION,nationalities comprise the urban population.

 

There are approximately ten million people in the eastern third of Russia. The population of China, shrinking though it may be, is well over a billion. I don't think that is is a sustainable situation in the long term. 

Of course Russia has moved the long term even closer by preferentially mobilizing men from this part of Russia. The_Capt mentioned however many months ago that the level of pressure would depend on if and how much Global warming increased the areas agricultural potential. I need to go find the current best guess on that question.

[Jiggathebauce]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Agreed

Yeah it's puzzling they fight each other, since they are both white and believe in white supremacy and are probably fans of Nazi Germany too but these are groups that never went too deep with their reasoning I guess. 

When I argue with Ukraine skeptic leftists who aren't full bore vatnik, I like to encourage them to think of the war as partially rightwing infighting, and to see the elimination of both sides' fash elements as a positive. 

I think it's only logical that these groups are against each other in the end, because they're death cults ultimately based on domination, mythical belief in the superiority of their specific in-group, and never ending conflict. If your belief is that brave men are only those who die in battle, how could peace ever be an option? Victory is not only unachievable, but to be avoided- no more conquest and no more manhood. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, sburke said:

ruh roh!!

China's Quiet Push Into Russia's Far East Puts Putin in a Pickle (msn.com)
 

 

Who here didn't see this coming?  Show of hands... OK, yes... I see quite a few waiving around.  Good on you for paying attention!

Seriously, though, this was an easy call to make.  The weaker Russia's real and perceived strength is, the more people with longstanding grievances are going to explore ways to achieve their goals.  In addition, there will be those without any grievances who get involved because they sense a way to make money.  Since there's a lot of people, inside and out of Russia, who feel they've been wronged by Moscow, we should expect more of this as time goes on.

This is not limited to Russia and China.  This is a normal aspect of Human societies, not just autocratic ones with longstanding border disputes. 

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

unified right wing National Corps

Not unified ) We have several parties, which in our and western societies consider as "far right", but indeed almost all they are "left-national" with more or less particles of right/republicans things in own ideology. If political force votes for social-oriented economy, state control over largest economy branches they are not "right" - neither "far", nor "close". But maybe this war will generate social demand for national-right-center (republican) ideology.   

Edited April 3 by Haiduk