How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[hcrof]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree, I don't think this will disrupt production for very long.  And if this was only 1 of 3 factories it won't disrupt it at all, though the number used per attack may be reduced.  All of that is good and well worth the expense of one long range drone.  Still, it's not an answer on its own.

The thing about all these attacks is that no single attack has much impact on how the war is going today.  Even sinking a ship doesn't.  However, cumulative and over time they matter.

Earlier in the war we had Ukraine blowing up railroad bridges and switching stations.  Everybody cheered, but they were quickly repaired.  The next hope was that Ukraine could knock them out faster than Russia's repair capacity could fix them.  This seemed a long shot and it is probably why Ukraine has switched to other targets. Something with inherently more concentrated and more difficult to replace/repair.  More costly too.

The attacks on the oil/gas industry are not yet having a noticeable impact on the war, but they are a great thing to concentrate on.  There are a limited number of targets, they don't move, due to size and vertical nature they are easy to hit, they are insanely expensive to repair, some components are difficult for Russia to replace, and there's only so many qualified construction crews and engineers to fix things at any given time.

Steve

Agreed. The wider the radius Ukraine can strike, the area Russia needs to cover with air defence goes up by that number squared. If nothing else it is an expensive distraction having to defend such an enormous area. 

It is a puzzle to me why Ukraine chooses not to increase the number of strikes. Maybe they think that money is better spent elsewhere, maybe they don't want to mobilise russian society, or maybe the Americans told them not to do it. I am sure we will find out in time...

[panzermartin]

Imagine eventually Russia moving the factories further east to the Urals like in WW2. And yet a drone or two will still be able to find them...

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Taking Adiivka or Bakhmut as signs of Russian winning, resolve or invincibility, only demonstrates a serious lack of understanding how war actually works.  And strangely, where were these people when Ukraine was making similar small limited tactical gains last summer?  Oh wait, they were here crowing about how “Ukraine is done!”

I fully agree. In Spring 1918 Germany had signed a very favorable peace treaty in Brest-Litovsk, taking Rusia out of the war and was taking a lot of ground in the West Front and almost put Italy out of the war too. AFAIK, Germany finally lost the war some months later 

Edited April 2 by Fernando

[Carolus]

51 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Imagine eventually Russia moving the factories further east to the Urals like in WW2. And yet a drone or two will still be able to find them...

Year 3 of the US operation to save the English speaking minority of northern Mexico from ethnic cleansing by the drug cartel regime of Mexico City. 

After dismantling the McDonalds PMC and mobilizing 30.000 men every month, President Biden orders to relocate the American weapons industry to the east of the Appalachean mountains to save them from Mexican long range drones.

"Everything is going according to plan" defense Minister Lloyd Austin proclaimed in a recent press conference. "In fact, things never looked better for the American cause. Rumors of losing 10.000 Abrams tanks and M2 Bradleys are actually sign that victory is just a question of time."

Edited April 2 by Carolus

[Eddy]

Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))

Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:

The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands

1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
Michael Kimmage
5 How the War Will End => Anne Applebaum

Part ii: The Conflict
6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War  => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua Baker

Part iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
13 Putin’s Point of No Return  => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion 
of Ukraine  => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William Inbode

It's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.

I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, alison said:

This is the key point to take away from the rather tedious past couple days on this thread.

Thanks for this post and suffering through the messiness that is democratic discourse.  Although I was 95% sure where this was headed after sfhand's first post, I am obligated to let it play out if this is to be a truly open conversation where people don't fear the "ban stick" for voicing a contrary position.  As painful as it might be to work through, it's an acceptable price to the alternative.

(on a side note... 25 years of managing this Forum has given me some "mad skilz" in pattern recognition.  The conspiracy theorists like to think of themselves as special, but in reality they are common and mundane.  Which is why they are so easily spotted)

2 hours ago, alison said:

It is depressing how many people fall into this hole.

Well summed up and definitely depressing how easily people are duped.  It's not just the extremes (Flat Earth, Q-Anon, Stolen Election, etc), but very much everyday experiences.  There's a reason why so many YouTube ads start out with phrases like:

1.  One simple trick/hack...

2.  This crazy idea...

3.  Throw out all of you X and buy this...

4.  You aren't ready to handle this...

5.  You can earn millions by...

etc.

I see things like this and feel a little vomit in my throat, yet there's plenty of people that think "wow, this sounds great!". The same people that believe conspiracy theories are the same ones who jump on pretty much any manipulation train someone invites them onto.  Politics being an obvious one that constantly derails otherwise good people into tracks that go nowhere good.

I feel bad for these people because it's all self inflicted.  They spend their money they rarely can afford on scams.  They spend their time angry at things that don't exist.  They become less social, losing friends, family, and better balanced communities.  This makes them angrier and more depressed.  That's not a great way to go through life on this planet.

2 hours ago, alison said:

This is not only why it is important to counter the Kremlin's lies, but also to consistently push back against the same kind of democracy-eroding rhetoric coming from media and political figures in parts of the world where there still is freedom of expression and freedom of association and so on. The people pushing it tend to either be useful idiots, or privileged enough (through age, wealth or power) to be insulated from the consequences. In both cases, not the best folks to be looking toward to inform your view of the world.

And this is the other reason I allow conspiracy theory/alternate reality discussions to run amok for a short period of time.  The rest of the world needs to wake up to how dangerous these people are to themselves and others.  The Tuckerfication of the world will bring about nothing by misery.  The more we are exposed to the danger, the clearer it becomes and the easier it is to spot it.  There might not be much we can do to combat it, but not recognizing or understanding the danger certainly isn't going to help.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

When I am looking at the “winning/losing” equation I am using the following objectives.

For Ukraine:

- the survival of the state as independent and sovereign.

- the creation of a narrative of effective resolve and resistance that draws in international support.

- shape and set the conditions for enduring security integrity at wars end (this one is key to effective reconstruction and recovery).

Thanks for laying this out so succinctly. You have said them before but with more words and over more than one post :-). I have even pointed out what I am about to before too.

I would add

- restore territorial integrity to the 1991 borders.

Yes, I was paying attention to you when you said the Ukraine might have to settle for less. Yes, I agree you could even be right. Likely right even. I just think it is unfair to leave it off the list. There is a non trivial number of Ukrainians who want that on the list of victory. Outside Ukraine too.

I realize it doesn't mean they can necessarily get it but I think it needs to be there. As you, and others, pointed out they might be better off with some of those regions festering under control of Russia and no longer a drain nor a problem for Kyiv but there is no denying that Ukraine feels aggrieved after the invasion of 2014 and would like to have that restored too.

[Beleg85]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/02/zelensky-signs-law-lowering-draft-age-bid-boost-military-ranks/

Pres. Zelensky today signed decree lowering mobilziation age from 27 years to 25. It was voted by Verchovna Rada year ago, so now it seems it is closer from formal to actual mobilization.

Edited April 2 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

Quote

"Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters...Iran's provision of around 400 missiles includes many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons"

 

[dan/california]

 

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat said:

Thanks for laying this out so succinctly. You have said them before but with more words and over more than one post :-). I have even pointed out what I am about to before too.

I would add

- restore territorial integrity to the 1991 borders.

Yes, I was paying attention to you when you said the Ukraine might have to settle for less. Yes, I agree you could even be right. Likely right even. I just think it is unfair to leave it off the list. There is a non trivial number of Ukrainians who want that on the list of victory. Outside Ukraine too.

I realize it doesn't mean they can necessarily get it but I think it needs to be there. As you, and others, pointed out they might be better off with some of those regions festering under control of Russia and no longer a drain nor a problem for Kyiv but there is no denying that Ukraine feels aggrieved after the invasion of 2014 and would like to have that restored too.

The only reason I leave this off the list is that it really was not an initial strategic objective for Ukraine going into this war.  I think it evolved out of realizing that they might be able to pull it off.  Much in the same way that Russian strategic objectives of “take the Donbas and de-Nazify” are also off the list.  I would not let Putin or Russia off the hook on some re-drawn objectives, and I am not really comfortable with putting Ukraine on a hook for 1991 borders.

But hey if they can pull it off, more power to them.  Personally, I am not sure it is entirely a good idea at this point - we have had long discussions on the potential serious pain of reintegration on these break aways.  But that is really a Ukrainian decision.  Now whether the West will support this stretch objective is an open question.  I think if the UA got the momentum we would get onboard.  Further if Ukraine can get enough moment it won’t even need western assistance to roll the RA all the way back.

Of course for this to happen we are basically talking a full on Russian collapse.  As we have also discussed this also comes with some significant risks.

[A Canadian Cat]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The only reason I leave this off the list is that it really was not an initial strategic objective for Ukraine going into this war.

I suppose but wan't it an objective / desire even after the 2014 invasion?

 

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

But hey if they can pull it off, more power to them.  ...

Of course for this to happen we are basically talking a full on Russian collapse.  As we have also discussed this also comes with some significant risks.

Yep, makes sense.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat said:

I suppose but wan't it an objective / desire even after the 2014 invasion?

Yes, it was.  The restoration of Ukraine's full territorial integrity has been a consistent part of Ukraine's stated national goals since territory was lost.  Including Crimea.  So I agree, it should be on the list.

Steve

[Eddy]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

So I agree, it should be on the list.

Yep, even more so after the horror of Bucha was revealed from what I've read.

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The attacks on the oil/gas industry are not yet having a noticeable impact on the war, but they are a great thing to concentrate on.  There are a limited number of targets, they don't move, due to size and vertical nature they are easy to hit, they are insanely expensive to repair, some components are difficult for Russia to replace, and there's only so many qualified construction crews and engineers to fix things at any given time.

And best of all, oil/gas facilities burn.  So the damage can orders of magnitude greater than the explosive power in the drones.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

Related question on what Iran can and can't help the Russians with, do they make their own artillery barrels? Do they have a meaningful number in stock? Like wise the North Koreans, they have sent quite a bit of ammunition, have they sent any barrels or complete guns? Could they?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/01/energy/ukrainian-drones-disrupting-russian-energy-industry-intl-cmd/index.html

“Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of artificial intelligence. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data. The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision,” the source explained.

In other words, the Liutyi drone is able to adjust its flight direction in real-time by comparing the objects it sees with a map stored in the computer. In the same way, the drone finds and hits the required object on the plant’s territory.

 

This sounds more like the pre GPS cruise missile guidance systems than true AI. Although there could be another layer to the software obviously. Either way it is fantastic they can't be diverted by GPS jamming.

[Haiduk]

Remains of "Aeropract" A-22 small aircraft, turned into drone was recovered on the impact place in Yelabuga

Maybe it would be better to dismount chassis and launch the plane with catapult - instead of chassis weight to put more HE

 

[Haiduk]

Chief of HUR Budanov several days ago warned that Russia after depleting of Kh-101 missiles amount after about month of intensive strikes may switc on strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles, which stocks were increased. 

New sattelite photo probaby confirms this like and that Russians managed to find a way to load Kalibrs on the ships in Novorossiysk base. Recently they could do that only in Sevastopol.

Today Putin assigned new Black Sea Fleet commander - now this is vice-admiral Sergey Pinchuk (on the photo he is in rear-admiral rank yet). Previous commander Sokolov wasn't seen with 100 % reliability since UKR destrpyed BSF HQ. To this time BSF had acting commander admiral Aleksandr Moiseyev 

Edited April 2 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, it was.  The restoration of Ukraine's full territorial integrity has been a consistent part of Ukraine's stated national goals since territory was lost.  Including Crimea.  So I agree, it should be on the list.

Steve

Each to their own.  However, I will disagree if people start to frame this war as a lost for Ukraine if they somehow fail to accomplish this.  Restoration of 1991 borders has been a larger long term objective of Ukraine.  To my mind “above and beyond” this specific war itself.  If it can be done through this war, absolutely great.  If it cannot, we should not have another parade through here of politically motivated trolls declaring this war a net loss because they are unable to accomplish a goal that they never really were planning to accomplish through this war in the first place.

Further, there is risk assigning it as a current war goal. This could be twisted into some sort of Ukrainian conspiracy to start this war and drag the West into supporting them to re-take back to 1991.  There is no evidence of this and I honestly doubt it was what Ukrainian political leadership were thinking on 23 Feb 22.

Now where it may be a goal is for the West, as we are more likely to benefit for a hard re-set in line with the rules going all the way back to the violations of 2014. But I am not sure it is what we had in mind from the offset either.

[Haiduk]

Updated statistic of spotted by videos FPV and grenade-dropping attacks on infantry.  Ukraine significanly boosted drones usage. Though, this is, of course, not comlete numbers

 

 

[Haiduk]

Yesterday in Russia happened two starnge huge fires on large plants. First is "Electroisolit" in Moscow region, other one is "Uralmash" in Yekaterinburg

 

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Updated statistic of spotted by videos FPV and grenade-dropping attacks on infantry.  Ukraine significanly boosted drones usage. Though, this is, of course, not comlete numbers

 

 

If valid - this my friends it what drone superiority looks like.

[Haiduk]

Because nobody posted this yesterday, here is aftermath of Russians armored assault attempts in different places for March 30th - April 1st

Siversk direction. National Guard battalion "Donbas" of 18th operative brigade eliminated enemy platoon

Usual day of 47th mech brigade, Berdychi area NW of Avdiivka - usual destroyed Russian armor and dead Ivans

25th airborne brigade repels the same most mass armored assault of Russian BTG of 6th tank regiment of 90th tank division in Tonen'ke area, SW from Avdiivka. I suppose we can see soon more epic video. 

Destroyed Russian armored column, which tried to advance further into Ivanivske (Russians still name it in old manner Krasnoye), west of Bakhmut

 

Edited April 2 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Because nobody posted this yesterday, here is aftermath of Russians armored assault attempts in different places for March 30th - April 1st

Siversk direction. National Guard battalion "Donbas" of 18th operative brigade eliminated enemy platoon

Usual day of 47th mech brigade, Berdychi area NW of Avdiivka - usual destroyed Russian armor and dead Ivans

25th airborne brigade repels the same most mass armored assault of Russian BTG of 6th tank regiment of 90th tank division in Tonen'ke area, SW from Avdiivka. I suppose we can see soon more epic video. 

Destroyed Russian armored column, which tried to advance further into Ivanivske (Russians still name it in old manner Krasnoye), west of Bakhmut

 

Two things about the last video stand out to me. It looked like all the Russian vehicles were getting hit from the same side, and none of them had their turrets turned towards the threat. Am I looking at this right, or are the cuts in the video confusing me? If they are all getting hit from the same side before they can even turn their turrets? That implies either epically bad radio/SOP for the Russians, or whatever blitzed them had a very high rate of fire. Is it possible that the column got flanked by a couple of Ukrainian tanks, and these were main gun hits? Were they seen coming so far in advance that at least three ATGM systems were set up for the perfect ambush? I have looked at a truly excessive amount of video of Russian stuff blowing up, and this looked different to me.