How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

UKR do not charge into the line of fire in Krynki. They mostly do what they do in Avdiivka - defend it. And it is not a bad position to defend.

This is the main point of our disagreement then. To me, it seems like a bad place to defend.

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This is the main point of our disagreement then. To me, it seems like a bad place to defend.

Disagreements are normal. We will eventually get further information to resolve the matter.

[Grigb]

Interesting UKR comment under video of Taras Cmut. An unknown commenter claims that UKR drone with 1.5 kg of plastid can take out any current RU dugout in typical Platoon Strongpoint (if it flies inside - they use another drone to blow up door/protective net first). 

BTW, hiding in dugouts is the main way to survive on frontline right now. 

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Disagreements are normal. We will eventually get further information to resolve the matter.

I hope you and @dan/california are right that it's a better place to defend than I see it.

And of course UKR command has much better info than this armchair general. I just hope they are defending that place because it actually makes sense on the ground and not for political reasons.

Looking at the Russian side, it does seem foolish to me that they expend so much energy trying to wipe out that small foothold. When they could just contain it and shell and drone it all day long.

[cesmonkey]

This is the page where it should show up and and we then can track how much support it gets:
https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

And of course UKR command has much better info than this armchair general. I just hope they are defending that place because it actually makes sense on the ground and not for political reasons.

There is no political reason in Krynki. There was a huge political reason to defend Avdiivka.

 

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Looking at the Russian side, it does seem foolish to me that they expend so much energy trying to wipe out that small foothold. When they could just contain it and shell and drone it all day long.

RU arty cannot shell it properly because they are afraid of UKR arty. They can't drone it since the majority of the drones sent are destroyed. They can't bomb it properly because VKS fears Patriot (they don't believe in S-200).

As a result, they cannot containt it unless they apply consistent pressure to keep UKR on the defensive. As soon as they stop, the same thing (new bridgehead/bulge) will happen a few km closer to Crimea.  

[Kinophile]

@Grigb

 

[poesel]

Scholz (finally) explained why Germany won't deliver Taurus to Ukraine.

TL;DR: you would need German soldiers in Ukraine to operate Taurus, and that would make Germany a war party. The explanation implies that the UK & France have just done that for Stormshadow/Scalp, but Germany won't.

This has caused harsh critics from the usual suspects (which is from the opposition and the other two parties of Scholz government). The point that German soldiers are absolutely necessary also seems factually wrong.

Scholz has willingly painted himself in that corner. I don't see a way out of it.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-olaf-scholz-begruendet-ablehnung-der-taurus-lieferung-a-3a43bb97-3709-4e24-80c9-dafb6ca2de75

Edited February 26 by poesel
forgot France :)

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Disappointing does not even begin to describe that the AFU has to plan for this. it is good that they are letting the world know they will have a plan to continue fighting, regardless what happens in D.C. 

 

 

I wonder if that was a factor with Zaluzhny. Was he too close to the Americanski that he was tarred with the failure of support? Was he over optimistic? 

 

Edited February 26 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

G'wan le Francais! 

 

 

[Kinophile]

Didn't know about the Archer, that's a great pity. 

Looks like the Rus have dedicated a significant effort to discovery, and tracking and destruction of these particular weapons. 

 

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Didn't know about the Archer, that's a great pity. 

Looks like the Rus have dedicated a significant effort to discovery, and tracking and destruction of these particular weapons. 

 

Damn, so this is not good news.  I have been dreading Russian ISR getting better.  Hopefully this was just a lucky week but if the RA get their C4ISR act together, or we pull back on support in this area, things could get very bad very quickly.

Regardless, we will need to keep an eye on these sorts of strikes.  Are they getting more frequent?  Are they getting deeper.  If the RA starts to look like the UA in the C4ISR and Deep Strike area, that will be a problem.

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Grigb

 

This is the kind of data that shows the grinding down of the the whole Russian system.

[Grigb]

51 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Grigb

 

Yes, it is possible.

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

RU arty cannot shell it properly because they are afraid of UKR arty. They can't drone it since the majority of the drones sent are destroyed. They can't bomb it properly because VKS fears Patriot (they don't believe in S-200).

Every marine complains they drop nonstop bombs, from the average drone footage coming out of there, Id agree with them.

Avdiivkas inner parts are more intact despite daily 70+bombs, many buildings still had roofs during 3rd AB GoPro footage during the withdrawl.

ze_bg1920 had a post about daily bombing, that he was even forced to deleate 

Edited February 27 by Kraft

[Grigb]

23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Didn't know about the Archer, that's a great pity. 

 

• Abrams got destroyed because UKR committed Abrams at Avdiivka direction to battle in recent days.
• NASAMS got destroyed as part of the intensification of RU campaign against that illusive Patriot.
• Caesar looks like Bohdana.
• Archer is a combination of two videos. First conveniently stops at range when EW usually disables the drone. Second video, well, is not clear. And initially only the first video was published in TG. Looks like somebody realised that it is not convincing enough and decided to "improve" it.

23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Looks like the Rus have dedicated a significant effort to discovery, and tracking and destruction of these particular weapons. 

They always dedicate significant effort to destroy foreign weapons. RU general admission western weapons superiority is a sure sign they caused RU tremendous pain that cannot be denied. 

 

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Every marine complains they drop nonstop bombs, from the average drone footage coming out of there, Id agree with them.

Avdiivkas inner parts are more intact despite daily 70+bombs, many buildings still had roofs.

Avdiivka is significantly bigger. And not the whole Avdiivka was bombed.

All stories about Krynky is hell is nice to hear until they tell you that there are about 60-100 marines against:

Quote

Last year, three tactical groups, numbering almost two brigades, were specially formed to squeeze the AFU from the left bank in Krynki . These groups operated on the flanks, from the Kazachy Lageria-Krynki, Korsunka-Krynki and frontally from route 2206 through the forest.

In addition, the command of the RU continued to build up the Dnepr group of troops and if in November 2023 there were 64 thousand men, now [01.02.24] it is 77 thousand men. In addition, the Dnepr grouping has:

Tanks – about 400 units;
AFV – 1 100 units;
Tube artillery – 500 units;
MLRS – up to 100 units.

 

Regarding nonstop drone bombing - Magyar: 

Quote

Total score: 2884 / 2235
(detected / destroyed) ️ ️ 77.4%

 

Regarding gliding bombs, yes, recently RU decided that it is safe now to bomb Krynki as usual. Only recently - 10.02.24

Quote

Furthermore, at its own risk, Russian tactical aviation is attempting to reach normal levels of KAB use in the Kherson region, both on the left and right banks.

 

Nobody says it is easy there. But when a few dozen defend ruins of village against two brigades that Putin watches... 

[Vet 0369]

11 hours ago, Grigb said:

No. but we have:

• 40% mobiks
• 50% contract soldiers who signed contract after start of the war
• 10% contract soldiers who signed contract before start of the war
• 10% others

Mobiks and contract soldiers can be privates or low-ranking non-commissioned officers only. As a result, officers could only make up 10% of the total.

 

Hmm. 40+50+10+10 = 110%. How does that work?

[JonS]

2 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hmm. 40+50+10+10 = 110%. How does that work?

In Putin's Russia, everyone puts in 110%.

What's so hard to understand?

[Kraft]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Nobody says it is easy there. But when a few dozen defend ruins of village against two brigades that Putin watches... 

I am not claiming the position is bad, in another post I said it is advantagous and funnels russians through deadly areas in which they attrition at greater numbers but I was talking about bombing.

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

All stories about Krynky is hell is nice to hear until they tell you that there are about 60-100 marines against:

The 35th, 38th, 36th, 503rd, 501st and SOF are there, I doubt they use 60-100 to hold a nearly 4km line at any given point, even if this is not "static trench".

2 russian brigades amounts to 3k, lets say actual: 1k, vs 60-100? I question that number, dont have a number myself but that sounds optimistically low.

[FancyCat]

Not worried about losses, things get lost, even if far beyond the front. Question is, is the West prepared to replace it? 

Also why is Scholz a idiot, always taking positions that just make it silly when he finally folds. 

[FancyCat]

lede is buried a little, im way more concerned about French opposition to purchasing artillery shells from outside EU for Ukraine, France has dropped that insistence. https://www.ft.com/content/83b8a80d-ab22-47fc-bbbb-6b1fd9df68ba

Quote

Emmanuel Macron, president of France, said sending western troops to fight in Ukraine “could not be ruled out” and that Paris would drop its long-standing opposition to purchasing emergency artillery supplies for Ukraine from outside the EU.

The French U-turn on artillery purchases is a sign of how events on the battlefield have forced a rethink of policies. Kyiv’s forces have started rationing the use of artillery due to limited western supplies. US aid is held up by congressional infighting and European arms manufacturers are unable to ramp up production fast enough to cover the gap. Macron said France would join an initiative led by the Czech Republic to make emergency purchases of artillery shells for Ukraine from non-EU countries. The policy shift signals France will lift its previous objections to using shared EU funds to buy artillery from suppliers outside the bloc, unlocking hundreds of millions of euros in additional finance.

Referring to securing more munitions, Macron admitted that Europe simply could not produce enough of them at the speed needed, so would turn to other countries. “We will mobilise bilateral financing as well as multilateral,” he said. Under its initiative, the Czech Republic has identified about 800,000 artillery shells that could be purchased immediately from outside the EU, and has offered to acquire, ship and deliver them to Ukraine if it can raise the necessary funding.

Separately, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said after the conference that about 15 countries had shown interest in contributing to the initiative, without naming them. “A number of states in the midst of the negotiations signed up to the initiative,” he told reporters.

 

[Zeleban]

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

• Abrams got destroyed because UKR committed Abrams at Avdiivka direction to battle in recent days.
• NASAMS got destroyed as part of the intensification of RU campaign against that illusive Patriot.
• Caesar looks like Bohdana.
• Archer is a combination of two videos. First conveniently stops at range when EW usually disables the drone. Second video, well, is not clear. And initially only the first video was published in TG. Looks like somebody realised that it is not convincing enough and decided to "improve" it.

They always dedicate significant effort to destroy foreign weapons. RU general admission western weapons superiority is a sure sign they caused RU tremendous pain that cannot be denied. 

 

For some reason, only the tactical or strategic reasons for this or that Russian action are always assessed, but the moral and psychological reasons are completely ignored. For example, why does Russia need to seize Avdeevka or Bakhmut. Or why Russia is so persistent in hunting for Western armored vehicles.

The capture of Avdeevka had a significant moral and psychological impact on both the Russian or Ukrainian population, and on Western citizens. The Russians received a morale boost from the fact that they were able to take an impregnable fortress that had resisted for 10 years, which indicates an improvement in their army. Ukrainians and Westerners received a decrease in morality, for the same reasons. It's the same with Western military equipment. The demonstration of even a single burning Abrams or leopards helps to reduce the faith of Western people in the invincibility of their military equipment.

But most importantly, the voices of those who are against sending Western equipment to Ukraine are sounding louder and more convincing. This is precisely the goal that the Russians are pursuing. To deprive Ukraine of Western support is the main goal of both Avdiivka and the possible capture of Robotino. Pay attention to the number of defeatist articles in the world's media after each such event. It would not be surprising if Russia sponsors such articles, increasing the moral effect of these events and further reducing Western support for Ukraine.

You have all discussed a lot here about the influence of this or that type of weapons supplied to Ukraine on the course of hostilities. ANY type of weapons supplied to Ukraine has a significant impact on the war. On the one hand, it shows Ukrainians that they are not alone in their struggle and significantly improves their morale. On the other hand, it shows the Russians that the West is not going to leave Ukraine without help in the face of the aggressor and that the end of the war is still very far away, which means they will have to continue to pay in blood and significant inconvenience for each newly captured senseless piece of land.

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hmm. 40+50+10+10 = 110%. How does that work?

My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

Scholz (finally) explained why Germany won't deliver Taurus to Ukraine.

TL;DR: you would need German soldiers in Ukraine to operate Taurus, and that would make Germany a war party. The explanation implies that the UK & France have just done that for Stormshadow/Scalp, but Germany won't.

This has caused harsh critics from the usual suspects (which is from the opposition and the other two parties of Scholz government). The point that German soldiers are absolutely necessary also seems factually wrong.

Scholz has willingly painted himself in that corner. I don't see a way out of it.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-olaf-scholz-begruendet-ablehnung-der-taurus-lieferung-a-3a43bb97-3709-4e24-80c9-dafb6ca2de75

It's not actually a new position, though. The explanation was floating around since roughly when this discussion had started.

It wasn't really clear from this article what the technical issue really was. I guess the problem is that it is either not possible to build some kind of geofencing into the software or they don't trust the Ukrainians not to (be able to) tinker with it. So the Ukrainians aren't allowed to target the missiles themselves.

Not sure if that's true - there was an article some months ago that suggested something similar. That would kind of imply Germany getting directly involved in the war.

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Also why is Scholz a idiot, always taking positions that just make it silly when he finally folds. 

In that case don't hold your breath. That seems to be a red line for Scholz.