How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

Many (most?) of the feeds we see are downsampled/lossily compressed by the social media sites that they get posted on. The original feeds are probably HD and have a few cm resolution at 1 km, and better at closer.  So if they have a data clearinghouse it's probably possible to extract quite a bit of intel.

Do you think? According to my very crude calculation, given full HD you have 1 pixel per 40cm at 1km distance with a FOV of 45° (which is the minimum we are using in  automated driving). Usually the FOV should be larger, I think, so resolution is worse.

Add to this that Ukraine has a rather diverse fleet of DIY drones. You have many different camera configurations with different resolutions, FOVs and calibrations. That makes applying AI complicated as  detection models are often sensitive to these differences. Not impossible but not something I'd expect to give good results out of the box.

[chrisl]

19 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Do you think? According to my very crude calculation, given full HD you have 1 pixel per 40cm at 1km distance with a FOV of 45° (which is the minimum we are using in  automated driving). Usually the FOV should be larger, I think, so resolution is worse.

Add to this that Ukraine has a rather diverse fleet of DIY drones. You have many different camera configurations with different resolutions, FOVs and calibrations. That makes applying AI complicated as  detection models are often sensitive to these differences. Not impossible but not something I'd expect to give good results out of the box.

FOV is variable if you have a optical zoom. The best you can do with an optical system is lambda/D, where for visible lambda is ~500 nm and lens diameter D for a typical camera that will fit on a drone is ~1 cm. Even you you have more apparent magnification it doesn't give you any better resolution.  

Edited February 21 by chrisl

[Butschi]

10 minutes ago, chrisl said:

FOV is variable if you have a optical zoom. The best you can do with an optical system is lambda/D, where for visible lambda is ~500 nm and lens diameter D for a typical camera that will fit on a drone is ~1 cm. Even you you have more apparent magnification it doesn't give you any better resolution.  

Fair enough, I hadn't considered optical zoom.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Murz colleague reports that Murz is no more.

Mr Murz, he dead

[chrisl]

26 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Fair enough, I hadn't considered optical zoom.

And I just gave a WAG.  I'm sure there's a lot of variability in what's on the drones, and that's probably about the best that any but the most expensive will have.  If you have a few billion dollars you can do ~10 cm from space.

[Carolus]

23 minutes ago, chrisl said:

And I just gave a WAG.  I'm sure there's a lot of variability in what's on the drones, and that's probably about the best that any but the most expensive will have.  If you have a few billion dollars you can do ~10 cm from space.

And that's just the optics.

I shudder to imagine drones with chemical sensors. Just think if they could be trained to seek out every breath of vodka on the frontline.

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap.  We on this Forum talk about people "flaming out", but this is taking it to the next level.

I will miss Murz's reports, however the world is better off without him.

Steve

It feels to me that between Wagner's dissolution, Girkin's imprisonment and Murz's suicide, the death knell for 'altruistic' Russian revanchism as been well and full rung. More proof of the demobilized and demobilizing political nature of Putin's sclerotic regime and a very good thing for long term Ukrainian prospects. 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

FOV is variable if you have a optical zoom. The best you can do with an optical system is lambda/D, where for visible lambda is ~500 nm and lens diameter D for a typical camera that will fit on a drone is ~1 cm. Even you you have more apparent magnification it doesn't give you any better resolution.  

Your posts on the characteristics and limitations of drones are very helpful. Keep them coming.

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

P.S. Indeed, Murz left full blown suicide note. Except to get a feel of the mood.

And this is how RU army learns from mistakes.

Now that is news, thanks Grigb for your translations.

Suicide is one form form of expression when realization comes as to the real value of русский мир. Murz was kind of bloody idealist, I am curious how many similar crazy behaviours we can expect from other Russian nationalists when reality come to them. They will keep fighting and deluding themselves, beacuse otherwise their worldview would literally explode.

Also from my observations of his activity, his posts were usually 80% about conditions in which former LDPR and various PMC companies from his sector fight, not necessarly entire Russian army as such. In fact he often expressed he know little of other fronts, but it was long time ago since I reguralrly read all his posts (early phase of war), so perhaps things changed from that time.

Anyway, it seems that despite nominal inclusion of LDPR and partition of Wagner and other PMC into one regular force, conditions and inter-services bahaviour changed little. "Grisnakh more important than Ugluk, Ugluk do what he says or pay with his life".

[The_Capt]

So back to the war.  We all know and love the NYT but do we have any in-country reports on how the withdrawal from Adiivka really went?
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/ukraine-prisoners-avdiivka-russia.html

 

[zinz]

Quote

The New York Times (NYT) reported that the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka may have left hundreds of Ukrainian personnel “unaccounted” for. The NYT reported on February 20, citing two Ukrainian soldiers, that about 850 to 1,000 Ukrainian personnel “appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for” following the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka.[30] The NYT reported that unspecified senior Western officials stated that the range of apparent Ukrainian personnel losses “seemed accurate.” The NYT reported that some unnamed Western officials stated that Ukrainian forces failed to conduct an orderly withdrawal from Avdiivka on February 16 and 17, which resulted in an apparent "significant number of soldiers captured.” Personnel who are “unaccounted for” include those killed in action, wounded in action, missing in action, and captured. ISW has not yet observed open-source visual evidence of massive Ukrainian personnel losses or the Russian captures of Ukrainian prisoners at such a scale, and the Russian information space customarily displays such evidence when it has it. The lack of open-source evidence does not demonstrate that the NYT’s report is false, however, and ISW continues to monitor the information space for evidence on which to base an assessment of the outcome of the Ukrainian withdrawal. The Kyiv Independent reported on February 20 that some Ukrainian forces conducted a disorderly withdrawal from the Zenit strongpoint south of Avdiivka and experienced high losses.[31] ISW has observed that this Ukrainian position was the only identified tactically encircled position at the time of the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024

ISW has not seen any indication of that. Besides the cenit position 

[Kraft]

5 minutes ago, zinz said:

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024

ISW has not seen any indication of that. Besides the cenit position 

I think it needs to be repeated everytime the NYT is quoted but their board has russians working on it, that have previously worked for russian state newspapers.

Anytime they quote "anonymous sources" discard the trash article into the next bin.

Edited February 21 by Kraft

[fireship4]

On 2/20/2024 at 4:08 AM, Offshoot said:

Some analysis on the Battle of Irpin River (Feb-March 2022) by the British Army Review (54 page PDF). As well as the historical analysis it looks like it would be valuable for campaign designers.

Battle of Irpin River

I found it on Mick Ryan's twitter

 

Available from https://chacr.org.uk (The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research, a think tank established for the British Army) as a .pdf

[Kraft]

 

 

 

 

Edited February 21 by Kraft

[Bulletpoint]

Barely 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can still defeat Russia, finds poll

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-cent-of-europeans-believe-ukraine-can-defeat-russia-poll

[Ales Dvorak]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So what this thread is trying to do is understand better.

I'm not sure about that. Two days ago I want to hear some more information about Nord Stream and after a few questions I become a lying pro-Ru hypocrite.

Understand better?

Edited February 21 by Ales Dvorak

[Grigb]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Murz was kind of bloody idealist, I am curious how many similar crazy behaviours we can expect from other Russian nationalists when reality come to them.

We should not expect any more suicides since, as you mentioned, he was an idealist. Any other RU Nat in his position would swallow his pride (which is not a huge thing for Russians) and survive. More crucially, any other RU Nat would unlikely place himself in the same circumstances. Murz issued an ultimatum to the propagandist, who belonged to a powerfull (relatively speaking) propaganda network. No other RU Nat would do that.

However, what we should expect is increased disfranchisement of RU Nats and their quiet exodus from the war.

quote

Quote

...So, it appears that the moment has come to state that the system in which the Strelkovs [plural] are in prison for nothing and the Murzs [plural] are killing themselves out of desperation.

But societal dandruff [human garbage] like the bastard Julia Lozanova [propagandist with whom Murz had a conflict] to the finest instances of genius [Shoigy - sarcasm] are eternally in chocolate [blameless].

Such a system is doomed. This is what individuals who think about the future should consider [now].

Another one

Quote

However, your death was not in vain.
I am confident that it will highlight even more vividly to everyone the rottenness, hypocrisy, venality, and insignificance of those who now think of themselves as the masters of our country.

And another one

Quote

Murz was at the foundation of the Russian world, and it began to crumble!!!

But sadly, not noticed by many. A humble man began to lose hope for victory. He sees Russia's flow of resources to the West and doesn't understand why he's fighting... [bla-bla-bla about all problems Murz wrote]. Murz was aware of and seen all of this, and more. That's why he protested so strongly.

Other Russian men do it more quietly.

Someone stops conducting humanitarian work; someone, after hearing from those who are really fighting the truth about the unpromising and disparaging condition of affairs in the army, changes his opinion about volunteering. Someone like Murz battled it till the end, attempting to figure out why there was no supply [to troops], and he was fired at best, or perished in a penal battalion at worst.

There are thousands of these stories. And they've been going on for quite some time.
We are losing the Russian backbone, those who defend the Motherland [and also] who think soberly [about RU]. Those who refuse to ignore issues.

Murz's protest suicide is a symbol of the scale of [that] trend: the collapse of the foundation of the Russian world. When an ordinary [Russian] muzhik is "grinded" to nothing.

 

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also from my observations of his activity, his posts were usually 80% about conditions in which former LDPR and various PMC companies from his sector fight, not necessarly entire Russian army as such. In fact he often expressed he know little of other fronts, but it was long time ago since I reguralrly read all his posts (early phase of war), so perhaps things changed from that time.

The crucial point is that the situation in an LDPR grouping is the best in terms of combat capability on average due to the presence of experienced LDPR commanders and specialists (such as Murz). Furthermore, there is an extensive and sophisticated RU Volunteer supply network there. Other directions are worse, that's why we should use Murz info as sort of best-case data.

For example, Donetsk grouping recently pushed UKR out of Avdiivka. Kherson grouping, despite having supposedly one of the best RU commanders and not insignificant resources, still battles something like hundred UKR marines in the village. Zaporozhy grouping banging Robotne bulge. North Luhansk grouping is banging villages around Kupyansk.

 

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Anyway, it seems that despite nominal inclusion of LDPR and partition of Wagner and other PMC into one regular force, conditions and inter-services bahaviour changed little. "Grisnakh more important than Ugluk, Ugluk do what he says or pay with his life".

That's RU state for you. 

However, there is a rift between LDPR fighters and RU regulars. LDPR are very dissatisfied with RU state traditions. We knew about it before from GUR phone intercepts but now it has started to spill in public domain.

Former LDPR fighter from Donetsks

Quote

I'll take it out of the comment [section and put it here]. Don't be angry when I address you as "Russiancy" [lightly derogatory author invented nickname for Russians]. I love Russia and Russians very much, their great culture and art, literature, breadth of soul, valor and honor. For me, since childhood, Russia has been the heir to the former greatness of the USSR, the now inaccessible achievements of that great civilization, the remnants of which we are now defending with weapons in our hands. All my life I've taken it for granted that Donbass is Russia. And went to war with the Ukrainian fascists in 2014, to return Donbass to return to Russia as well. 

And now we are already part of Russia.

And I don't want to associate myself with the majority of those who came from the Mainland to teach me how to be Russian. I endlessly mourn the loss of my Free Pirate Republic, where we fought and worked on our specific [to us] tasks significantly more effectively and better than the Russians. Here we achieved what they couldn't even dream about [comms thanks to Murz and a like]. I look at these stupid people who knock their heads [at enemy] and do not understand that it is impossible to defeat the enemy with advanced certificates, meaningless sabotagin [us] statistics and mountains of waste paper. I watch how [state] visitors [from RU] create [local] authorities in the liberated territories using accomplices of ukrofascists and pedophiles - and I am ashamed to look into the eyes of those who waited for Russia to come here, who send to us coordinates [of enemy targets], I am telling them - do not associate me with them, I am not one of them. I look at the looters who are stealing Russian budgets as well as our industrial facilities [RU occupational administration love to dismantle and sell for scrap UKR plants and factories] - and I don't see them [as my] compatriots. I am a D-E-N-E-R [RU nackname for DPR people] from the Free Pirate Republic, I am an inferior Russian, I'm sorry.

 

[Kinophile]

Another one? 

 

Edited February 21 by Kinophile

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, zinz said:

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024

ISW has not seen any indication of that. Besides the cenit position 

The same here. I have seen few POWs and the same one damaged Bradley everywhere.

But there was screw up at Zenit position (the most difficult position to retreat from). And possibly at Koksohim but it is unverified.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

I'm not sure about that. Two days ago I want to hear some more information about Nord Stream and after a few questions I become a lying pro-Ru hypocrite.

Understand better?

Maybe try being more aware as a step to better understanding?  Reviewing your questions, they could be taken as confrontational and not inquisitive.  This is an imperfect communication medium, tone and non-verbal queues are missing.  You may have taken you questions as honest and genuine, well another poster saw them as something else.  You can get all hurt and offended or chalk it up to a miscommunication.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So back to the war.  We all know and love the NYT but do we have any in-country reports on how the withdrawal from Adiivka really went?
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/ukraine-prisoners-avdiivka-russia.html

 

 

[Kinophile]

26 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Barely 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can still defeat Russia, finds poll

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-cent-of-europeans-believe-ukraine-can-defeat-russia-poll

Sounds weirdly low. 

[Beleg85]

46 minutes ago, Kraft said:

 

 

"Pietia" Panasiuk was just media stooge, he was never a farmer and only lately joined protests; he is walking a joke in PL net cause he openly supports Russia, while smarter muscovite assets stops at feeding anti-Ukrainians sentiments and dwell on historical memory of UPA genocide.

Like I wrote, such lizards crawled out of stones they were hiding -channels for Antivaxes, Flat-eartheners and God ones what else. Their numbers are small, not more than low thousands, but learned how to be visible. They are usually so nuts I personally find them harmless, if not damaging Russian efforts; real problem is they are cover for real network of spies and influencers. Sometimes they manage go to the leads in newspapers and have their day, like yesterday.

[Butschi]

53 minutes ago, chrisl said:

And I just gave a WAG.  I'm sure there's a lot of variability in what's on the drones, and that's probably about the best that any but the most expensive will have.  If you have a few billion dollars you can do ~10 cm from space.

FOV is never variable in our setups. The camera position is fixed, no (dynamic) zooming or swiveling whatsoever. So basically a pixel always covers the same solid angle. Makes sensor fusion (e.g. with lidar) easier. For us, detecting and classifying objects beyond 100m is a real challenge.

[Kraft]

16 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The same here. I have seen few POWs and the same one damaged Bradley everywhere

2 Bradleys and one Leopard 2 were lost in the last couple days afaik