How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Artkin]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Sounds good.

What lol? Each of these is worth over 100k? What a complete ripoff. Taxpayers are getting ****ed so hard. 

[Butschi]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

FPV dog fights are already a thing: 

 

The shape of things to come...

 

[G.I. Joe]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

FPV dog fights are already a thing: 

 

Shades of the Battle of Hampton Roads.

[Kraft]

Another video appeared of russians executing 3 Ukrainian PoWs this time.

That makes 6 on Zenit and 5 filmed by drone in 2 days.

Edited February 19 by Kraft

[cesmonkey]

18 minutes ago, Artkin said:

What lol? Each of these is worth over 100k? What a complete ripoff. Taxpayers are getting ****ed so hard. 

At least it supports some Canadian jobs. Maybe their next generation will be better?

[pkanarki]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

 

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

First of all, it does not work like this.

You made a claim and were asked to back it up. How else should it work?

 

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Second, we have two solid facts - the most important for Putin pipe was not blowen. And the same pipe is actually in fully working condition. 

Nobody denied that the pipe wasn't blown as is still intact. Solid facts, as you say. Your conclusion was what was challenged.

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

So, let me be clear - I do have solid facts for my assessment while you both do not.

But we don't have to. Sorry, but that is the established way of debating and gaining knowledge. The one who makes a claim has to back it up. Not the one who challenges the claim. You can make up your own rules but then please don't expect to be taken seriously.

While your facts are solid, they are not conclusive for the claim you make. For once, it is not Putins pipeline but a Russian-German joint venture.  I am not a conspiracy theorists but my government profited at least as much from the blown pipeline as Russia. In fact Russia didn't really profit much at all. The situation before was much more in their favor because Russia was able to blacknail Germany with gas deliveries and thus divide our society. Giving in to Russian blackmailing was an actually heatedly debated solution at that time.

Sure, I'd still count Russia among the prime suspects just for their demonstrated preference to do things others find unreasonable. I'd even say they are one of the likelier suspects. But they are not the only one and your facts are not suited to shorten that list.

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Now, given your opinion (that you need something more credible) please provide me with screenshots when you ask the same thing from RU public (for example screenshots of you asking RU public to provide credible source for Putin statement that US did it).

Expand  

That's a) whataboutism. We were discussing your claim, not someone else's. Your claim doesn't get any more credible by someone else making a claim he doesn't prove. And b) I don't discuss with the Russian public in general, I discuss with specific persons on this forum, so that's not a valid point. But if any Russian came here and made the claim the US were behind the blown pipelines I'd ask him to back up his claim, too.

 

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

If you fail to provide them then I am forced to make an assessment that opinion is not based on your fair judgment but on your personal pro-RU bias.  

Call me pseudo intellectual, again, but that is yet another rhetoric method aimed at discrediting a person's opinion instead of actually arguing his points. You are constructing a false dilemma here: A position is either fair judgement or pro Russian bias. This is false because obviously there can be a lot in between and also outside of that spectrum (for instance I could just be biased towards my line of argumenatation instead of making a fair judgement and still come to the same conclusion). But this way you make it look like everyone who doesn't share your view must be on the Russian side. Which of course discredits the person without having to deal with their points.

 

This deserves a quote...Well spoken Butschi.

Thank you

Edited February 20 by pkanarki
Fixed quote inside quote

[chuckdyke]

7 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Love that guy.

Correct. Part of his talents were he could predict future battles. 

[danfrodo]

Graphic video of UKR night raid on unsuspecting RU position.  Plus some other UKR war bits.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/19/2224391/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-might-get-long-range-ATACMS?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

Ecuador now pulling back on sending it's RU weaponry to UKR.  Putin does know how very easy & cheap & effective it is to simply bribe people.  

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

The government parties agreed to send the motion for a parliament voting on a new military aid package containing “long range weapons”. The word “TAURUS” is not mentioned but it is obviously the core of that new military aid package. Voting should take place this week.

Reason for this change of heart is Navalny’s murder. Even members of the SPD are appalled and now ready to support the bill, in order to send a message to Putin.

The motion is also a concession to TAURUS supporters in the government parties who threatened to bring in their own notion, further straining the government coalition.

Please make it happen.

 

 

 

Edited February 20 by Harmon Rabb

[JonS]

Hopefully they'll be sending live ones.

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

Then why would russia report it first?

The Russian government has a long history of killing off traitors, which, fundamentally and legally, he was. Brave and somewhat principled but still, apples to apples, he betrayed his parent country and delivered valuable military hardware to the enemy in time of war. 

Let's be honest, his days were numbered. He knew it, everyone knew it. 

 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

he betrayed his parent country and delivered valuable military hardware to the enemy in time of war. 

When and where was the court case? Never the less a country has a duty of care in regards of incarcerated persons. 

[Battlefront.com]

Let's take it down a couple of notches on the Nordstream debate.  It's unnecessary and not in keeping with the discussion standards here.

My take on it is Grigb's new information (that Putin is saying it's basically operational) adds to the the existing theories that Russia was the only one with the means and motivate to blow it up and there is some physical evidence to suggest this to be true.

However, as persuasive as this line of thinking is, it's not proven factual even if there's no better explanation (and I've yet to see one).

Obviously this is a bit of sensitive topic because there's way too many that have formed opinions that the West (US in particular) or Ukraine was behind it.  The alternative theories are helpful to Russia, even if unintentionally.

Steve

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

FPV dog fights are already a thing: 

 

Nah that's just ramming, and we've had at least two videoed instances prior,  one from early 23.

Where's my real gun cam at? 

Edited February 20 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

True? 

Hopefully. 

[danfrodo]

Looks like every one of our allies is shaming us.  Thanks Japan and thanks Germany for doing the right thing.  

[Kinophile]

Well see how much effort Musk really puts into this. 

 

[LuckyDog]

Have we discussed the possibility of AI analysis of the drone camera feeds to complement other intelligence feeds? Good enough data could even track vehicle and soldier movement. The geolocation and time stamps could enable predictive observation (resupply/build up) and potentially predictive artillery fire. The feeds don't look very high resolution but I've seen AI pick out PPE use on similar sized (relative to the screen) objects. Any thoughts?

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Back to war assessment.

Let's have a look at battle damage of RDK M113 from Avdiivka. The M113 got hit by 1-2 RU FPV drones.

• 00:50-00:56 damage to fuel tank from fragments
• 01:00-01:10 damage to engine compartment from fragments
• 01:10-01:20 damage to heater from fragments
• There are a lot of floor shots to show blood from the wounded they were transporting
• 01:20 other vehicle (again damage from fragments)
• M113 was able to return to base

Interesting, but the damage comes from fragments, not HEAT. It's possible that HEAT warheads aren't often used at that location or that the FPV drone trajectory isn't always optimal for HEAT, or it missed due to pure luck.

Conclusion

FPV damage is primarily caused by fragmentation and HEAT from 40mm grenades and RPG-7 type-rounds (in hindsight it is kind of obvious). The damage is moderate and may be considerably reduced by standard methods such as bar and ERA armor, as well as spall liners.

The most significant distinction between FPV and conventional rounds is that FPV may hit anywhere on the vehicle, whereas current militaries are primarily concerned with up armoring vehicles against standard Grenade and RPG trajectories.

Reasons for extreme effectiveness of UKR drones

If we look at RU AFVs there are three distinct groups:

• Highly flammable tanks and BMPs
• Low flammability yet weakly armored MT-LB
• Completely unarmored wheeled vehicles

The exceptional success of UKR drones is due to the inherent vulnerability of RU vehicles and the RU's virtually total lack of a mass uparmouring program.

Let's see agent Murz opinion

Other reason for FPV effectiveness

Unlike in low-intensity combat, once a vehicle is disabled, it is effectively gone due to arty fire. So, FPV drones just need to disable the vehicle, not to inflict major damage.

And the FPV drone does not even need to disable the vehicle; instead, it may damage the sights, external electronics, and unmanned turret. In low-intensity conflict, such damage is not critical; in this war, it is effective mission kill because there are many other weapons systems around.

What is the point of your top-of-the-line unmanned turret if drone with the cost of 400 bucks can destroy it quickly. 

New paradigm of AFV up armoring

Apart from other things (APS, AD, Drone EW) we need to change the paradigm of uparmouring.

1. As much of the vehicle's surface as feasible should be armored to survive a 40mm grenade
2. Engine must be protected even better than other compartments (withstand RPG-7)
3. External components, such as electronics, turrets, and weapons, should be resistant against 40mm grenades or have the ability to be moved inside the vehicle quickly.
4. Spall liners is a must. Crew members may benefit from a full-body flak suit. Previously, there was a possibility of receiving few RPG strikes during missions. Now you may be struck by dozens of FPVs. Each of them may do small damage, but fragments could eventually strike, for example, the driver leg, making the vehicle temporally immobilized and vulnerable to arty fire.

Wheeled light vehicles

Let's look at RU recommendation for wheeled and unarmored vehicles 

So, the speed of the vehicle increases survivability. That means steps must be taken to ensure that logistics and unarmored wheeled vehicles can travel at the highest possible speed. Roads need to be improved and fixed. Drivers need to be trained. Vehicles need to have better accident protection (due to obvious decrease of safety).

From my own limited piloting of virtual aircraft and watching countless videos, it's seems that sometimes the optimal strike method runs into limitations.

The easiest way to hit something is to start high and angle downward.  Easier to spot, benefit of a solid background, no obstacles, etc.  This means that when the FPV is in its final run towards the target it is headed towards the ground.  If the target moves at the last second (as those lucky Ukrainians with the white pickup truck did) there's not enough reaction time too "pull up" and avoid hitting the ground.

Compare this to the much more difficult horizontal attacks we've seen on open roads vs. moving target.  The pilot might need several attempts before being able to score a hit (that we see) or a miss (which we don't see as often).

This is a reminder that as good as FPV pilots are, their reactions are slower and less subtle than quality smart weapons out there.  Not that they can't miss either, it's just that they are probably less likely.  Also, a smart munition doesn't require an excellent gunner, just a good one.

Steve

[Offshoot]

Some analysis on the Battle of Irpin River (Feb-March 2022) by the British Army Review (54 page PDF). As well as the historical analysis it looks like it would be valuable for campaign designers.

Battle of Irpin River

I found it on Mick Ryan's twitter

 

Edited February 20 by Offshoot

[cesmonkey]

 

[kimbosbread]

40 minutes ago, LuckyDog said:

Have we discussed the possibility of AI analysis of the drone camera feeds to complement other intelligence feeds? Good enough data could even track vehicle and soldier movement. The geolocation and time stamps could enable predictive observation (resupply/build up) and potentially predictive artillery fire. The feeds don't look very high resolution but I've seen AI pick out PPE use on similar sized (relative to the screen) objects. Any thoughts?

It’s an interesting idea, but I think you’d find the data to be sparse, both in space (area covered) and resolution (sent back from drones). Honestly dropping accelerometers all over the place (ie major roads) that would phone home every day or so would probably net you more useful info.

[Kinophile]

Separate war but shows how quickly an organization can shift into a new Unmanned System. 

https://news.usni.org/2024/02/19/houthi-lethal-underwater-drones-adds-new-threat-to-red-sea

I'll lay odds we'll yet see a Ukrainian Unmanned Underwater System take out a full Russia sub. It's just that kind of war now. 

Edited February 20 by Kinophile

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Bra jobbat Sverige!

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Separate war but shows how quickly an organization can shift into a new Unmanned System. 

https://news.usni.org/2024/02/19/houthi-lethal-underwater-drones-adds-new-threat-to-red-sea

I'll lay odds we'll yet see a Ukrainian Unmanned Underwater System take out a full Russia sub. It's just that kind of war now. 

Well, well I have always wondered what Iran gets out of toppling Yemen (besides squeezing the Saudis from two sides) but control of the international waterways did not occur to me.

I had assumed Houthis were just the regular Islamist militia with AKs, RPGs and Toyota trucks. But Iran has really upgraded their capabilities while the West was sleeping on it.

Edited February 20 by Carolus