The_Capt Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Rokko said: If I did, please correct me. To me, they seem to underline that, considering a RU replacement rate of about 20k per month or 5,000 per week (although we don't know since when and for how long this rate has held or will hold), a strategy focused on personnel attrition is probably not a viable option. Not that anyone would have made that claim. Even in their worst time, this replacement rate would have been almost sufficient to absorb their casualties (at 5,900 weekly casualties only 84.5% over a period of 9 weeks). Ok, I was following up to here. Why would a strategy of attrition be ruled out? First off we do not know which troops are being killed. If those are all front line conscripts, ok Russia can probably sustain that. But commanders, gunners, mechanics and ISR specialists are a very different story. How fast can the RA replace AD and EW expertise? There is a qualitative metric missing in this whole discussion. The same goes for equipment. We already know Russia is losing more equipment than it can replace. It has had to dip heavily into old war stocks. Attrition to the point that all the RA has left are leg infantry would work very well in that Ukraine need not worry about losing operational ground - in this environment troops cannot walk to Kyiv. Next, what is the strategic pressure? All those dead and wounded are a pull on Russian society. We hear rumblings and rumours all the time. At what point does Russia run out of excess human capacity and their society starts to turn? Like the Russian economy, the answer is not “never”. Finally, attrition is where things are at. We cannot dump enough hardware on Ukraine right now to break the denial/defensive primacy of this war. Someone has yet to field a solution to the deadlock and until they figure it out, attrition is where things are at. We have heard a lot of hand wringing on “oh dear attrition, we must be losing.” Well no, so long as one can do it better than the other guy it can be very effective in warfare. Sometimes it feels like we ran out of ideas when manoeuvre stoped working. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 hours ago, Haiduk said: Video gives a much better sense of just how large an explosion. You can definitely see how the earth is quite soft, but the sheer force shown is still unsettling. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Interesting. I'd wonder just how 5th gen are are their "5th Gen" fighters. Not casting aspersions, but as someone said, the 4-->5th is a hell of a leap... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Kinophile said: As I said a page or two ago, it seems Ukraine handle the defense and withdrawal from Avdiivka quite well so far. This is not surprising as they've consistently evaded entrapment since 2014. The only large scale exception was Mariupol, but that was a very special and specific set of circumstances. I would not be surprised if some Ukrainian rearguards get cut off at the very end phase of withdrawal. I expect Russia will crow about it if they do. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 29 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Interesting. I'd wonder just how 5th gen are are their "5th Gen" fighters. Not casting aspersions, but as someone said, the 4-->5th is a hell of a leap... Questionable if Ukraine will acquire them over other alternatives given they aren't supposed to be available until 2028 according to Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF_Kaan 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) On the topic of rotation and casulties, situation in Zenit and Avdiivka overall. Quote "110 OMBR, **** YOU!" Over the past few weeks, this is the most common phrase in my mind. And although I don't like the text that follows, because it sounds like whining (I want to be an indomitable warrior), I need to speak out and come to conclusions. I am on the verge of writing a refusal, to be honest. It's a trend here now. A lot has happened in all this time, namely, from the end of March 2022 to the present. And this is, for a moment, being on the contact line for 22 months. Rotation, no we haven't heard of it. All right, we've accepted it, okay, we've been dealt a hand of cards, we're serving. But there must be a limit to everything. Knock, knock! Under certain conditions, we could still somehow fight these infinity wars. But no, the external and internal factors have crossed the already stretched limits. Therefore, we feel that we are living out our last days here at our positions. From the outside, it is the enemy, it is a war, it is clear. We fought a war with the enemy on the frontline, no problem at all. Okay, now the left flank, okay, it will be fine. Oh no, now the right flank. Well, at least we have a rear! They started attacking from behind. Hey, isn't that a wake-up call? Attacking from all sides is like cutting off oxygen to a drowning man. Logistics was a disadvantage. The resource did not arrive, and the soldiers are in short supply. And it's not clear what was feeding him before. Because the schedule is such that if you go on leave once for 10 days, you are lucky. I was lucky to go on such a holiday, and then I caught the debris with my neck. I was home for a month, it was a thrill. There was also the practice of going to civilisation for a few days. For those who agreed. I made arrangements and went several times. Those who were silent were never there. But this is not a panacea. This is what we have been doing all this time. By the way, people are not the same as they were at the beginning. 80% for sure. I'm the only one left in the platoon. As for the company, you can count on one hand. A kind of rotation. If only one more year to 36 months, yeah, yeah. Of course, there has always been a lack of support from the "big brother" and the means to conduct infantry warfare. But at least they gave us the opportunity to build those damn huts and dig holes. We still had the effort and logistical capabilities to bring a log and buy bags. And that was despite the fact that the average age of the men was 40-45. + And then there were the chronic ones. Things are much worse now. There is a severe shortage of staff. Whatever broke, broke completely. The enemy's advantage has not disappeared, but only expanded. Our near encirclement gave the enemy new firing sectors. And there are almost no fortifications left. There will definitely be no new ones. There will be useless casualties. To the last soldier. Someone will be promoted. Movement in war is everywhere at night. But a new stage of the arms race has come. Night drones are very good at targeting everything they can. Art, equipment, night kamikazes. If they see you coming out, they immediately give the go-ahead to the always-ready machine gunners, RPGs and a ****ing sniper who has already taken out a bunch of people. And leaving is even harder. Everything depends on the reinforced concrete balls of our driver. And the snags we buy and repair ourselves. What else? As soon as we started to suffer the first losses, we immediately started to have regular chaos. We finally switched from de jure to de facto service. At the moment, in fact, we don't have a company, we have a company stronghold. There is no company commander, but a "senior". In general, I hate this concept, because I had to carry it myself. The senior is at the lower levels, so when you need something, Vitya, and if you don't like something, go **** yourself. So there is no company commander, the deputy is in the gate. But the deputy for morale and psychology has appeared recently. There is someone to receive reports of refusal. There are no platoon commanders, no chief sergeants, no squad leaders. There are only senior officers. And most of them have been in the war for the last week. I don't know, maybe I'll put on one more outfit and let this train derail. I can't wait to be transferred to Azov. I will leave Kuzia. And become a criminal. If I live to see it. Quote The legendary fortified unit, the Zenit military base. In my previous post, I wrote about the conditions in which we had to serve. And so, it all came to a critical point. Preservation of personnel, removal of weapons and equipment, competent mining and burning of the remnants of what we called positions. It would have been nice, but no. As in politics, no one likes unpopular decisions. Withdrawal of personnel is one thing, heroic defence is another. You can get a promotion for that. There were two attempts to withdraw. On the first night, 14 February, the top ten left. They had to engage in a small arms battle. The artillery was already brought in. Only three wounded made it back. And if two of them made it back in the dark. Then the evacuation, the last one was evacuated in the morning. I and three other volunteers carried him. And daytime is not the right time for movements, and even such heavy ones. And as a natural result. From one wounded, there were 4 more of us. And I was very lucky that I did not lose my mobility, but only got the Joker's smile. Okay. New day, new darkness. The master plan was either in place or gone. New groups were being formed. I didn't go into it. They said a box would come for the wounded. I relaxed. The groups were leaving, one after the other. There was zero visibility on the street. It was just stupid survival. A kilometre across the field. And a bunch of blind seals controlled by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is dotted with our corpses. I did not stay to wait for the evac. I led the group and went into the unknown. They covered me. I ****ed up the group. But in the end, I got to the point. And how the first groups died in the face of the enemy. The next ones were led a little bit around. This allowed those who were lucky to get out. Evak did not come. The last group left the bunker. And this dialogue on the radio wounded us to our very core: "Wounded. Is there no evac? Commander. No, there will not be, leave 300 and burn everything. He didn't know he was talking to a wounded man. There were at least six people left. And it was also difficult to read their messages, in the chat in the signal. Their desperation, their doom. It will always stay with us. Only the bravest die. And now, after all the horrors. Being completely exhausted, injured and with minimal belongings. And even though we are in Avdiivka, we are ready to leave. The command continues to pull. And even, ready to bring BC and supplies, and leave us to die. 110 OMBR 1st battalion, 2nd company. Help! Edited February 16 by Kraft 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Kraft said: On the topic of rotation and casulties, situation in Zenit and Avdiivka overall. A harrowing read. I listened to Wolski's podcast yesterday, he and the guest expert think that 110 Mech Bde is going to be refitting for the next year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) Oil storages in Avdiivka started to burn, ingited by Russian bombs. Soldier from 3rd Assualt wrote fumes are making breathing difficult and are toxic to people posted there. Nonetheless, they are still holding the position and Russians have no entry there- AFU will likely try to use it as main "bolt" for new defensive line once they withdraw soldiers from the south. Edited February 16 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raskol Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 There goes the Russian oposition. Also from: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/jailed-russian-opposition-leader-navalny-dead-prison-service-2024-02-16/ "MOSCOW, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is dead, the prison service of the Yamalo-Nenets region where he had been serving his sentence said on Friday. In a statement published on its website, the Federal Penitentiary Service of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District said that Navalny "felt unwell" after a walk on Friday, and "almost immediately lost consciousness". It said that medical staff had been called, but that they were unable to resuscitate Navalny. It said the reason of death was being established." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 According to RU government Navalny has died from dislodged blood clot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 In other news: Quote The Bank of Russia decided to maintain the key rate at 16% per annum. The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia is scheduled for March 22, 2024. This rate is devastating for RU economy as no RU business is profitable enought (unless it sell cocain). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well, Navalny's died in jail in Siberia. Surprised he lived this long. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-68316979 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, TheVulture said: Well, Navalny's died in jail in Siberia. Surprised he lived this long. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-68316979 Agreed. But why murder him now? I guess Navalny refused to restrain himself and to do what Putin told him. Brave man. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 53 minutes ago, Grigb said: According to RU government Navalny has died from dislodged blood clot. Three FSB agents got medals for their diligent work at dislodging it. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Death by Putinitis. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Decent SPGs, but a long wait time. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said: Agreed. But why murder him now? I guess Navalny refused to restrain himself and to do what Putin told him. Brave man. To our knowledge there were not even serious attempts from Kremlin side to turn him into licensed oppositionist that would have its place-naturally limited- on Russian political scene, basically for last decade. Better conditions, temptation for selling others, leaving politics entirely etc. - for sure it was at play. But on default he infuriated Putin and posed too much danger to become a puppet like so many others, even if he finally would break under pressure and agree to cooperate. But yeah, despite doubts as to his standing on Russian nationalism, he was example of civil bravery. Edited February 16 by Beleg85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Tucker Carlson will soon note how incredibly efficient the press in Russia is compared to backwards America. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said: Agreed. But why murder him now? I guess Navalny refused to restrain himself and to do what Putin told him. Brave man. The idea at the moment is to underline both at home and abroad a feeling of futility in Putin's opposition. This was "well" timed in that respect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Konstantin Mashovets' latest update leads with the situation near Avdiivka https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1631 Quote Zvizdets Mongoose Review... 1. First, about Avdeevka... As far as I understand, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will leave the city in the next 24 hours. However, in order to successfully withdraw troops from the Avdeevsky defense region, you also need to “strain yourself.” Mainly in the area Orlovka - Lastochkino - Severnoye - Tonenkoye + "9th quarter of Avdeevka". This area will need to be held until the last Ukrainian soldier leaves the city... At the moment, Ukrainian troops have left the most problematic positions and lines for further defense of the city, where they were really threatened by encirclement and difference from the main forces - the Zenit and Donetsk positions filter station (DFS)... However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces still continue to hold the territory east of the railway between the Avdeevka railway station and Turgenev Street (obviously, to ensure the further systematic and organized withdrawal of their units). The enemy's advanced units (114th separate motorized rifle brigade\omsbr, 30th motorized brigade) are now consolidating in the area of the "Brevno" restaurant and the Avdeevskaya motor depot... and, obviously, are preparing to continue the offensive in the southwestern and southern directions to try cut off the last communication, which still remains under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on the section between Severny and Oryol ATP-100... I think that in the near future... in the direction Vodyanoye - Severnoye, as well as Opytnoye - the "9th quarter" will try to attack and the enemy’s southern grouping, namely the enemy’s 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 10th Tank Regiment (tp) of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division (MSD), which was recently brought into battle, and also, in all likelihood, units of the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade may be connected to them enemy... In the southern and south-eastern parts of Avdeevka, the 2nd volunteer reconnaissance and assault brigade (DRShBR) "VYtirany", 1487th motorized rifle regiment of territorial troops (MST TRV), reinforced by 87- m rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve (sp MR)... It is obvious that the enemy command, at the moment, has already established the fact of the withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces units from a number of positions and lines in the Avdeevsky defense region and in the near future will try to prevent them from continuing this process in an organized and step-by-step manner . In other words, in the near future we can expect a stubborn attempt by the enemy to break through in the area between the village of Severnoye and the “9th quarter” (both from the north and the south), in order to deprive our units, which are still defending in the central part of the city, of the opportunity retreat in a western direction in a timely manner and with minimal losses... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 29 minutes ago, billbindc said: The idea at the moment is to underline both at home and abroad a feeling of futility in Putin's opposition. This was "well" timed in that respect. Elections soon. And Kremlin has several candidates for "opposition", for whom Navalny's legacy was like a thorn. But it simply could have been not-staged- judging by his health conditions, he could die at any moment. Anyway, there is little difference if they killed him outright or get him there by terrible living conditions. Blame is naturally on Putin. 30 minutes ago, akd said: ucker Carlson will soon note how incredibly efficient the press in Russia is compared to backwards America. "Putin may murder oppositionsts, but hey- did you guys knew how ingenous are Moscow shopping carts? You put a coin there; amazing, we can learn so much from Russians." Edited February 16 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 36 minutes ago, billbindc said: The idea at the moment is to underline both at home and abroad a feeling of futility in Putin's opposition. This was "well" timed in that respect. This, Putin is making a push to reset the entire board in his favor. This is of course facilitated by both Mike Johnson and Donald Trump. Biden needs to find a way to push back, HARD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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