How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[OBJ]

I guess we'll see where European support goes. I am disgusted by my (US) country's conservative politics, not what I signed up for. I am left with the hope Europeans can hold things together until US national politics comes more into balance, which I fervently hope is this year.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-is-europe-starting-to-change-its-strategy/a-68188384

[Desertor]

Nice paintwork…

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

A "wargame" looking at the utility of robot wingmen:

https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/the-need-for-collaborativecombat-aircraft-for-disruptive-air-warfare/
 

Quote

Advances in autonomy and other uncrewed systems technologies have created a unique opportunity to combine the lethality of 5th and 6th generation fighters with CCA that are designed to disrupt and defeat China’s counterair operations. The Air Force could begin to acquire CCA at scale to reduce risk and deter China this decade. This stands in contrast to other, more exquisite solutions that are necessary to keep pace with China but may not be available in numbers for years.

https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Need-For-CCAs-for-Disruptive-Air-Warfare-FULL-FINAL.pdf

[billbindc]

When talking about Zaluzhny and Zelensky, it's important to take note of the mobilization issue: 

It's pretty clear that the general with his ask of 500,000 men has little understanding of the political problems such a step could cause. That's why you don't let generals over rule politicians. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

I am sure they will find other ways but this is not bad. 

 

 

This is good news!  And as our beloved Elvis (BFC type, not the singer living in Paris with Jim Morrison) likes to say... if Plan B was as good as Plan A then it would be Plan A.  Or something like that

Every single sanction effect on Russia creates friction of some sort.  Sometimes a little, sometimes a lot.  Sometimes it's obvious, sometimes it's not.  Sometimes the reaction is surprising, sometimes not.  But all of it helps, at the very least making things more difficult than they would otherwise be.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

The Chinese bank news is a good reminder that pundits moaning about Russia's strength often focus on Ukraine's limitations (like the idiots in the US House of Reps) and make predictions about the war based solely on that.  They don't take into consideration sudden changes that may happen to Russia that could balance things out or make things worse for them.

The big example of this is something like Ukraine's mobilization problem.  For sure it is a problem and for sure it negatively impacts Ukraine's side of the war.  But there's some sort of assumption that Russia doesn't have such problems now nor ever in the future.  That only Ukraine can wear down it's ability to generate new soldiers, never Russia.  Yet those of us who look at the Russian side of things know better than that.  We just can't predict the future, only understand that it isn't as certain as the pundits make it out to be.

Steve

[Kraft]

41 minutes ago, billbindc said:

When talking about Zaluzhny and Zelensky, it's important to take note of the mobilization issue: 

It's pretty clear that the general with his ask of 500,000 men has little understanding of the political problems such a step could cause. That's why you don't let generals over rule politicians. 

Mobilisation needs to happen sooner rather than later. Not acting because its unpopular is just brushing issues under a rug until the issue spills out and someone pays for it, either because mobilised dont get full training to hurry them to the front or formations that are spent and need rest having to stay despite worsening performance and dropping morale because russia outnumbers everywhere in men, machine and ammo.

Edited February 7 by Kraft

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

 

America is just playing with my feelings. I want a divorce.

[billbindc]

20 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Mobilisation needs to happen sooner rather than later. Not acting because its unpopular is just brushing issues under a rug until the issue spills out and someone pays for it, either because mobilised dont get full training to hurry them to the front or formations that are spent and need rest having to stay despite worsening performance and dropping morale because russia outnumbers everywhere in men, machine and ammo.

I agree to a large extent but to do it well also requires a unified and clear political strategy to minimize the friction it's going to cause. Zaluzhny needed to stay out of that aspect of it...and he clearly didn't.

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, Butschi said:

May I ask about the purpose of dropping a few lines from a five monts old article without any further comment or explanation why this fits the current discussion?

Total honesty, I didn't realize it was that old. And it ties into the current mess in the U.S..

[Harmon Rabb]

Alright this will be my last post regarding this guy for a while, I'm frankly getting tired of seeing his face. Don't think I'm the only one who feels this way by now.

Here is the Newsweek article Jonasz and the KyivPost are referencing.

Exclusive: Tucker Carlson Could Face Sanctions Over Putin Interview (NewsWeek)

Quote

Tucker Carlson's interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin could see the conservative pundit targeted by European Union lawmakers, current and former members of the European Parliament have told Newsweek.

Carlson visited Russia this week, and on Tuesday revealed he would "soon" be releasing an interview with the Russian leader.

Carlson's work in Russia could see the former Fox News host in hot water with the EU, Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian Prime Minister and current member of the European Parliament, told Newsweek.

The lawmaker—who has called for the EU to explore imposing a "travel ban" on Carlson—described Carlson as "a mouthpiece" of former President Donald Trump and Putin, adding: "As Putin is a war criminal and the EU sanctions all who assist him in that effort, it seems logical that the External Action Service examine his case as well."

Newsweek contacted the Tucker Carlson Network by email to request comment on Wednesday morning. This article will be updated if a response is received.

Explaining his motive for the interview, Carlson said in a video statement on Tuesday: "Most Americans have no idea why Putin invaded Ukraine or what his goals are now."

"We are not here because we love Vladimir Putin....We are not encouraging you to agree with what Putin may say in this interview, but we are urging you to watch it. You should know as much as you can."

 

The EU's External Action Service (EAS) is the bloc's diplomatic arm, responsible for foreign policy. For an individual to be added to the EU's sanctions list, evidence must be presented to the EAS for review. If deemed sufficient, the EAS can then present the case to the European Council—the body made up of EU national leaders—which takes the final decision on whether to impose sanctions.

As such, any hypothetical sanctions for Carlson may be some way off, even if the move has sufficient support among European lawmakers and heads of state.

Luis Garicano, a former MEP, told Newsweek he agreed with Verhofstadt's stance. "He is no longer a newsman, but a propagandist for the most heinous regime on European soil and the one which is most dangerous to our peace and security," Garicano said of Carlson.

The content of Carlson's interview with Putin is not yet clear but, given the pundit's long-time defense of aspects of Russian policy, critics expect it to be sympathetic to Moscow.

"First of all, it should be remembered that Putin is not just a president of an aggressor country, but he is wanted by the International Criminal Court and accused of genocide and war crimes," MEP Urmas Paet, who previously served as Estonia's foreign minister, told Newsweek.

 

"Carlson wants to give a platform to someone accused of crimes of genocide—this is wrong. If Putin has something to say he needs to say it in front of the ICC. At the same time Carlson is not being a real journalist since he has clearly expressed his sympathy for the Russian regime and Putin and has constantly disparaged Ukraine, the victim of Russian aggression.

"So, for such propaganda for a criminal regime, you can end up on the list of sanctions. This concerns primarily travel ban to EU countries."Tucker Carlson speaks at the Turning Point Action conference on July 15, 2023, in West Palm Beach, Florida. The former Fox News host is expected to soon release a new interview with Russian President Vladimir...

 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has confirmed that the interview had already taken place. "His position is different from the others," Peskov said of Carlson on Wednesday. "It is in no way pro-Russian, it is not pro-Ukrainian, it is pro-American, but at least it contrasts with the position of the traditional Anglo-Saxon media."

 

Carlson's interview will make him the first member of the Western media to question Putin since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"Americans have a right to know all they can about a war they're implicated in and we have the right to tell them about it," Carlson said in his video statement.

He added that he had also requested an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

 

Edited February 7 by Harmon Rabb

[Kinophile]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ecuador-plans-to-deliver-osa-akm-sam-to-ukraine-through-the-united-states/

Edited February 7 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

22 hours ago, billbindc said:

This, all damn day: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2024.2309068

Good read.  Basically outlines Corrosive warfare and proposes it as the main strategy for this entire year.  I am pretty much in agreement.

Ukraine needs to develop and field capabilities that allow for rapid, precision attrition of the Russian military system along its entire length.  The pace of that attrition must outmatch the RAs ability to replace and reinforce.  It must be targeted at key nodes and connectors, not simply grinding cannon fodder at the front.  If they can do this well enough, for long enough, the RA operational system will lend itself to collapse, which will then allow for manoeuvre.

At least that is the theory.

[A Canadian Cat]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I'm frankly getting tired of seeing his face. Don't think I'm the only one who feels this way by now.

Indeed

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Here is the Newsweek article Jonasz and the KyivPost are referencing.

But wake me up when they actually do it. Don't tease me with hypotheticals and rumors of it being discussed. Just. ****ing. Do. It.

[A Canadian Cat]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't have a chart handy, but my impression is even with this aid Russia is firing about 1/2 what it was during the Spring 2022 offensive.

There are additional factors to, the AFU have smashed more than they have lost via counter battery fire. Plus, my impression is the RA cannot replace worn out tubes as quickly as the AFU can.

Just like sanctions it all adds up. 

[sburke]

25 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat - was IanL said:

There are additional factors to, the AFU have smashed more than they have lost via counter battery fire. Plus, my impression is the RA cannot replace worn out tubes as quickly as the AFU can.

Just like sanctions it all adds up. 

not to mention, when using N Korean ammo one has to be a bit desperate.

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

When talking about Zaluzhny and Zelensky, it's important to take note of the mobilization issue: 

It's pretty clear that the general with his ask of 500,000 men has little understanding of the political problems such a step could cause. That's why you don't let generals over rule politicians. 

Alas, it was enough typical for western Ukriane as far as since 2014. Many patriotism in speeches, portrays of Bandera, but when the war came, as far as in 2014 many men of highland regions fled to work to Europe and to... Russia. In the same way representatives of enlistment offices met in some villages by angry mobs. This is just local mentality. The state must supply us, but  we don't owe anything to the state. Of course this is not bother for westren Ukriainans with pathos to tell you how only "Halychyna and Volyn boys fight at the war for this damned russian-speaking "easterners", when they (easterners) fled to western Ukraine. This is also doesn't bother to them to lease own apaprtments for refujees for cosmic money and sit in Poland, Germany and Slovakia as "refujees", getting social payments for money of local taxpayers. According to last statistic about Ukrainian refujees in Poland, among top-10 oblasts representattives, the western ones make up more than 30 %.   

Edited February 7 by Haiduk

[David Jaros]

Hi Guys i am thinking  how many of you must suffer with anxiety after visiting this Ukraine topic everyday

[Bearstronaut]

37 minutes ago, sburke said:

not to mention, when using N Korean ammo one has to be a bit desperate.

Plus, it's not like North Korea is a bottomless well of war material. 

[sburke]

40 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Many patriotism in speeches, portrays of Bandera, but when the war came, as far as in 2014 many men of highland regions fled to work to Europe and to... Russia. In the same way representatives of enlistment offices met in some villages by angry mobs. This is just local mentality.   

Hey it isn't so different here.  Folks are always complaining about taxes and there are groups that want to abolish the IRS, but wait till they see potholes on their street, water mains breaking, trash piling up and suddenly it is "where is the gov't?!"  The states in the US that most complain about taxes are the one that receive the largest subsidies from the federal gov't.  Go figure.

[Carolus]

 

Some hackers did some sleuthing about Shahed imports.

"The Iranian side announced a starting price of $375,000 per unit. However, during the negotiations, an agreement was reached for $193,000 per piece when ordering 6,000 units or $290,000 when ordering 2,000 units. The total price of the production contract, including the transfer of technologies, equipment, 6,000 pieces of UAVs and software, is roughly $1.75 billion. According to other published documents, at least partially, Russia conducts its financial transactions and payments with Iran in gold."

[sburke]

33 minutes ago, David Jaros said:

Hi Guys i am thinking  how many of you must suffer with anxiety after visiting this Ukraine topic everyday

not so much anxiety as frustration.  I am so pissed at my own gov't right now for being so fk'in lame.

[Haiduk]

Today we had next missile strike.

Kyiv form 6:00 to 7:30 of morning was under attack too. about 20 missiles were shot down over the city and on approaches. Alas, fragments of one missile hit residental buulding, causing death of four people and wounding of 36.

Two more were wounded in other place, where allegedly newest 3M22 "Zirkon" hypersonic missile hit the ground between two malls. This is in 5 km from my house. In result power lines was damaged, and part of our district was cut off from electricity and heating for several hours (but not our residental area)

The palce of "Zirkon" (ot its fragments) impact - Air Force Command didn't claim intercepted ballistic missiles today, but also didn't mean about "Zirkon" strike.

Allegedly "Zirkon" fragment with 3M22 marking, fouded near the crater. But this marking made like by hand and we have too few information about "Zirkon", so nobody now can't say for shure what type of missile it was. "Zirkon" is newest Russian sea-launched hypersonic missile with probable range 1000-1500 km and 400 kg warheed. It's not adopted yet, but reportedly first usage in Ukriane was on 29th Dec 2023, when it hit Zaporizhzhia. Some later the similar missile hit Dnipro. Curerently unknown what Russian ship on balcj sea or submarine could launch it. Russians tested it with new frigades pr. 22530M "Admiral Grigorovich" and nuclear submarine "Perm' ", but this vessels are from Northern Fleet. Allegedly "Zirkon" can be launched from upgraded launchers for "Onyx" and "Kalibr". Probably it was launced from the ground. 

 Kharkiv also was under attack. Initially all five missiles were claimed as S-300, but later two of them were identified as N.Korean KN-23. 

Mykolaiv. Kh-22 missile hit on the street of private houses. In result of impact 70 houses were damaged, 2 killed, 20 wounded.

 

Result of AD work today (morning info, while weren't clarifications of N.Korean missiles and allegedle "Zirkon"):

20 Shaheds - 15 shot down

29 Kh-101 - 26 shot down

3 Kalibr - 3 shot down

4 Kh-22 - no interceptions

3 Iskander-M - no interceptions

5 S-300 - no interceptions

Edited February 7 by Haiduk

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Carolus said:

Russia conducts its financial transactions and payments with Iran in gold."

That is the part I like best.  Another aspect of sanctions on Russia.  Paying in gold ain't the smartest thing... for Russia.