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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

If I already meant "Magyar" some words about him. His unit is again making level-up - now - it will be 414th separate UAV battalion, which will include not only recon and strike drones of different classes, but also SIGINT/ELINT unit as well as EW unit to track enemy drone teams, enemy drone in the air and supress them by EW systems.

"Magyar" claims afetr this upgrade this unit can maintain 100 km of frontline with firm ELIINT/EW and strike support of troops. This will be first unit of such type in the world.

And there ought to be a whole team of NATO observers in that command post learning how it actually works.

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And one more story with happy end, how drone team could spot and resque wounded soldier. In this time it was more hard - the guy hide behind knoked out vehicle, so drone hovered directly over him to determine it is own or foe and he is dead or alive. After soldier was recognized as own-alive, drone was charged with tea, flashlight and lighter - all this was dropped to soldier. The note was attached "If you can crawl follow the drone, rise a hand". But soldier likely lost own strenghth, so despite enemy was close, resque group was send and they could find and evacuate own comrade 

 

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20 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I look forward to using bucket trucks in future CM games

 

There was point in the last two decades where a militarized version of this with a remote turret woulds have made a lot of sense.  I think the advances in drones and NLOS ATGM systems have moved well past it now though. It is far better to launch things straight up, from another ten kilometers back.

Edited by dan/california
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9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And there ought to be a whole team of NATO observers in that command post learning how it actually works.

We already have 14th separate UAV regiment, but probably it has only recon and strike purpose, without (or limited) ELINT/EW capabilities.

Edited by Haiduk
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It is Friday, wanted to post something a little fun.

Always enjoyed Pilsner Urquell due to its taste and place in beer history. Now i have another reason to buy it this year.

Hey this is a wargaming forum, and everyone knows wargamers love their beer and pretzels sometimes. 😎

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4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

It is Friday, wanted to post something a little fun.

Always enjoyed Pilsner Urquell due to its taste and place in beer history. Now i have another reason to buy it this year.

Hey this is a wargaming forum, and everyone knows wargamers love their beer and pretzels sometimes. 😎

Heh, well, than I need to buy one, albiet I like dark beer )

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8 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

It is Friday, wanted to post something a little fun.

Always enjoyed Pilsner Urquell due to its taste and place in beer history. Now i have another reason to buy it this year.

Hey this is a wargaming forum, and everyone knows wargamers love their beer and pretzels sometimes. 😎

Just after the wall came down I went to the Czech Republic and tried to get to the brewery.  I made it to the Pilsen train station, then realized it was Sunday.  Nothing was open and ohboy, was the area around the train station not a nice place.  Spent a couple of hours waiting for another train to get me somewhere better.  Shame it didn't work out.

Steve

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38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just after the wall came down I went to the Czech Republic and tried to get to the brewery.  I made it to the Pilsen train station, then realized it was Sunday.  Nothing was open and ohboy, was the area around the train station not a nice place.  Spent a couple of hours waiting for another train to get me somewhere better.  Shame it didn't work out.

Steve

Did you ever run into that mliko business with Pilsner Urquell? My over hopped American tastebuds could not wrap themselves around it.

Edited by billbindc
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just after the wall came down I went to the Czech Republic and tried to get to the brewery.  I made it to the Pilsen train station, then realized it was Sunday.  Nothing was open and ohboy, was the area around the train station not a nice place.  Spent a couple of hours waiting for another train to get me somewhere better.  Shame it didn't work out.

Steve

European train stations are almost universally dodgy AF. I remember the Florence and Koln ones as particularly iffy. 

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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just after the wall came down I went to the Czech Republic and tried to get to the brewery.  I made it to the Pilsen train station, then realized it was Sunday.  Nothing was open

Funny. I went to Pils in 2017. On a Sunday. Nothing was open then either 🤣

As annoying as it is, I kinda like that Europe is all "**** it. We dont do sundays."

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6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Heroical crew of one of two Bradleys, who disabled Russian T-90M

As somebody joked - "after such free advertisment, Bradley manufacturer has to give at least a dozen vehicles for us"

An Interview with the brave Ukrainian knights behind the Bradley IFV armor.

Obviously happy about slaying that dragon... I mean T-90M. 🙂

Edited by Harmon Rabb
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another reason for China to be wary of extending itself too much for Russia.

China’s $6.3 Trillion Stock Selloff Is Getting Uglier by the Day (msn.com)

Chinese stocks just capped another dismal week, with a gauge of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong languishing at the bottom of global equity index rankings for the year so far.

Grim milestones have kept piling up in recent days: Tokyo has overtaken Shanghai as Asia’s biggest equity market, while India’s valuation premium over China has hit a record. Locally, a meltdown in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc on the nation’s asset management industry, pushing mutual fund closures to a five-year high.

In all, some $6.3 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021, underscoring the challenge that Beijing faces as it seeks to arrest a decline in investor confidence. Authorities have ruled out the use of massive stimulus to revive the flagging economy, leaving traders wondering when things will improve.

“What we are seeing this year so far really is a continuation of what we saw last year,” John Lin, AllianceBernstein’s chief investment officer of China equities, said in an Jan. 17 interview on Bloomberg Television. “These squeezing-the-toothpaste type of stimulus policies so far haven’t been able to turn around the underlying bottom-up fundamentals of areas like the property sector.”


The HSCEI gauge plunged more than 6% this week and is on track to record its worst January performance in eight years. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index has dropped in nine of the last 10 weeks. Signs that state funds likely bought exchange-traded funds and a decision by China’s largest brokerage to suspend short selling for some clients failed to halt the onshore benchmark’s losing run.

The headwinds buffeting the market are well documented: China’s real estate sector remains a trouble spot, deflationary pressures are building and a long-running feud between Beijing and Washington refuses to go away, with the US election set to take place later this year. In recent days, uncertainties about the trajectory of US interest rates and the threat of an imminent blowout of local stock derivatives have added to investor worries.

Asian fund managers have cut their allocation to China by 12 percentage points to a net 20% underweight, the lowest in more than a year, according to the latest Bank of America survey.

Managers of benchmark-tracking funds have sold a net $300 million of shares traded in mainland China and Hong Kong this month, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. That’s a reversal from the last half of 2023, when they bought $700 million on a net basis even as stock indexes declined.

“China is a waiting game and we continue to be waiting,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which is mostly avoiding Chinese equities.

Beijing’s efforts to reassure investors have been met with skepticism from investors, many of whom worry that authorities are behind the curve. While the People’s Bank of China took steps last month to pump cash into the financial system, it bucked widespread expectations for cutting a key policy rate on Monday.

Speaking to leaders at the World Economic Forum this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang trumpeted his nation’s ability to hit its roughly 5% growth target for 2023 without flooding the economy with “massive stimulus.”

Right now, the loss of confidence is so severe that even attractive valuations are of little help. The MSCI China Index has never been this cheap versus the S&P 500 gauge from a forward earnings estimate perspective. Still, bets on a short-term rebound have failed to materialize.

“The government seems very sanguine about the economy,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director for Asian equities at abrdn. “The market might not even trust the 5% growth figure, it certainly has a much more negative view on the economy and definitely believes Beijing needs a big fiscal response.”

 

 

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2 hours ago, sburke said:

another reason for China to be wary of extending itself too much for Russia.

China’s $6.3 Trillion Stock Selloff Is Getting Uglier by the Day (msn.com)

Chinese stocks just capped another dismal week, with a gauge of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong languishing at the bottom of global equity index rankings for the year so far.

Grim milestones have kept piling up in recent days: Tokyo has overtaken Shanghai as Asia’s biggest equity market, while India’s valuation premium over China has hit a record. Locally, a meltdown in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc on the nation’s asset management industry, pushing mutual fund closures to a five-year high.

In all, some $6.3 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021, underscoring the challenge that Beijing faces as it seeks to arrest a decline in investor confidence. Authorities have ruled out the use of massive stimulus to revive the flagging economy, leaving traders wondering when things will improve.

“What we are seeing this year so far really is a continuation of what we saw last year,” John Lin, AllianceBernstein’s chief investment officer of China equities, said in an Jan. 17 interview on Bloomberg Television. “These squeezing-the-toothpaste type of stimulus policies so far haven’t been able to turn around the underlying bottom-up fundamentals of areas like the property sector.”


The HSCEI gauge plunged more than 6% this week and is on track to record its worst January performance in eight years. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index has dropped in nine of the last 10 weeks. Signs that state funds likely bought exchange-traded funds and a decision by China’s largest brokerage to suspend short selling for some clients failed to halt the onshore benchmark’s losing run.

The headwinds buffeting the market are well documented: China’s real estate sector remains a trouble spot, deflationary pressures are building and a long-running feud between Beijing and Washington refuses to go away, with the US election set to take place later this year. In recent days, uncertainties about the trajectory of US interest rates and the threat of an imminent blowout of local stock derivatives have added to investor worries.

Asian fund managers have cut their allocation to China by 12 percentage points to a net 20% underweight, the lowest in more than a year, according to the latest Bank of America survey.

Managers of benchmark-tracking funds have sold a net $300 million of shares traded in mainland China and Hong Kong this month, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. That’s a reversal from the last half of 2023, when they bought $700 million on a net basis even as stock indexes declined.

“China is a waiting game and we continue to be waiting,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which is mostly avoiding Chinese equities.

Beijing’s efforts to reassure investors have been met with skepticism from investors, many of whom worry that authorities are behind the curve. While the People’s Bank of China took steps last month to pump cash into the financial system, it bucked widespread expectations for cutting a key policy rate on Monday.

Speaking to leaders at the World Economic Forum this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang trumpeted his nation’s ability to hit its roughly 5% growth target for 2023 without flooding the economy with “massive stimulus.”

Right now, the loss of confidence is so severe that even attractive valuations are of little help. The MSCI China Index has never been this cheap versus the S&P 500 gauge from a forward earnings estimate perspective. Still, bets on a short-term rebound have failed to materialize.

“The government seems very sanguine about the economy,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director for Asian equities at abrdn. “The market might not even trust the 5% growth figure, it certainly has a much more negative view on the economy and definitely believes Beijing needs a big fiscal response.”

 

 

And today the US S&P 500 just hit an all time record high.  Funny that our previous President predicted that if he wasn't reelected that the stock market would tank.  I don't think he specified the US stock market, so I guess he was technically correct? :D

Seriously, that's a huge hit for the Chinese economy at a time when everybody is already nervous.  Just read another article about the declining birthrate.  Since the Chinese government started aggressively trying to get women to have more babies the birthrate DECLINED.

Anyway, let's not get sidetracked on the China thing (though we always do for a bit!).  The point here is that China isn't in a position of great strength at this moment.  The last thing it can afford to do is have key pieces of its economy falling into secondary sanctions from the US.

Not that this will solve all of the sanctions problems (nothing will), but it is sure to have an impact.

Steve

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Some time ago I posted here a video how Russian soldier chases MTLB, trying to get onboard. Now is full video is available - this is Russian armored column was eliminated by drones during advance to Novomykhailivka about month ago

 

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Article in NYT about the recent strikes on petroleum storage facilities:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/world/europe/ukraine-russia-oil-drone-attack.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240120&instance_id=113029&nl=the-morning&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=155843&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

One angle that I had not thought of is targeting aviation fuel storage specifically.  As I'm sure everybody knows, the fuel used by aviation is specific to it.  As a % of fuel produced, and therefore stored, it is probably relatively small and concentrated.  Add to this the different grades of aviation fuel for the different types of aircraft, making disruption of any one specific type easier still.

Steve

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Severe crash test for MaxxPRO. Damaged and abandoned vehcile with M58 MICLIC was bombed from the drone. In result of direct hit on M58 catasrophic explosion completely destroyed this vehicle.

This happened several days ago in Kherson oblast. Likely right bank.

  

 

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