How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

As far as I know most revolutions and uprisings have one or more underground/resistance/rebel - groups that do have a decent "organisational structure" with active planning and communication. Sometimes they're small in size (Nazi-Germany), sometimes huge (Afghanistan).  Some are only strong in a country's rebellious area's (Yemen), while others can be found almost throughout the entire country. (Vietnam, Algeria 1950's).

Those organisations usually make plans for what to do, and how to act, when the opportunity for "the revolution" arises.

They're all a bit like embers in a dying fire. Waiting.. but as soon as a new piece of wood is thrown upon those embers the flames suddenly come back to life.

The Prigozhin-revolt was not one log into the fire, but an effin busload of logs! Even in Russia most people, and certainly any "revolutionaries" must have realized that something big was going on. I think the storming of the Bastille in France may have been less huge in every aspect (except for the final result, that is).

But I haven't heard of ANY streetfighting ANYWHERE in Russia, because revolutionary groups took their chance. Nowhere, as far as i know, were huge demonstrations reported. No attacks on governemental institutions, no riots, no protests, not even minor disturbances, no cheering crowds. Not the least bit of chaos! Such a huge country, but nowhere any noticable support for, what after a few hours was stunningly obvious for even the stupidest of onlookers, an uprising was on the way without any opposition!

But nothing but silence..

And that for me indicates that we will not see a people's uprising in Russia. Maybe someone close to Putin succeeds in killing him, or maybe he falls terminally ill, but I cannot see a second "storming of the winterpalace".

The one thing you have to remember about Prig is that he was not promising peace and bread, he was promising to fight harder and more competently. This might have limited his revolutionary appeal.

More generally I think if Russia really has a bottom up political convulsion it will be very much like the Arab Spring. A random spark in a random place, except the fire department manages to pour gasoline on it instead of water. 

[Haiduk]

Not always an idea of point blank shooting of enemy positions is good. Russian IFV rolled to UKR position of 25th airborne brigade, but finally turned out unlucky. Probably it has found own mine or some AT weapon and was nuked out.

 

Edited January 17 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The one thing you have to remember about Prig is that he was not promising peace and bread, he was promising to fight harder and more competently. This might have limited his revolutionary appeal.

More generally I think if Russia really has a bottom up political convulsion it will be very much like the Arab Spring. A random spark in a random place, except the fire department manages to pour gasoline on it instead of water. 

The 1905 Revolution went hot with the Bloody Sunday shootings of demonstrators at the Winter Palace. The 1917 Revolution began in earnest when soldiers revolted at the violent suppression of demonstrators also. 

Watch the demonstrations. 

 

[Haiduk]

In one of latest missile attack on Ukraine 6 Kinzhals were launched. Air Force Command claimed three of them didn't hit own targets. At least two were found in fields near Kropyvnytskyi city (central Ukraine), where one of largest airfiellds. Missiles hit the ground and didn't explode. Sappers conducted controlled explosion of their warheads.

If you expected some sci-fi type of warhead, that Kinzhal has slightly modified FAB-500 dumb bomb as it.

PS. On today's briefing deputy of GUR chief Vadym Skybytskyi told Russians significantly modernized own Kh-101 cruisse missiles in comparison with models, which they used in 2022. Late version of missile has not only passive defense system like flares block, but also the block of EW, which should interfere to make targeting for AD systems

Humilitation of the "wunderwaffe"

Edited January 17 by Haiduk

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

But I haven't heard of ANY streetfighting ANYWHERE in Russia, because revolutionary groups took their chance. Nowhere, as far as i know, were huge demonstrations reported. No attacks on governemental institutions, no riots, no protests, not even minor disturbances, no cheering crowds. Not the least bit of chaos! Such a huge country, but nowhere any noticable support for, what after a few hours was stunningly obvious for even the stupidest of onlookers, an uprising on the way without any opposition!

But nothing but silence..

True there is no organized opposition, but that is to be expected with how quickly the regime cracks down.  There have been protests including some decent sized demonstrations, but the Russian state shut that down quickly.  There were also a number of firebombing of police stations etc.  There is not and likely won't be any organized opposition that we will see.  That doesn't mean there isn't any opposition.

Never assume because you don't see something, that it doesn't exist.

Not related to the war, but a good example of how the regime responds to protests.

Hundreds protest and clash with police in a Russian region after an activist is sentenced to prison (msn.com)

Quote

 

Hundreds of protesters clashed with police in the Russian region of Bashkortostan on Wednesday in a rare display of public outrage after a court convicted a local activist and sentenced him to prison, media reports and rights groups said.

The unrest — one of the largest reported demonstrations since the war in Ukraine began in 2022 — erupted amid the trial this week of Fail Alsynov in the town of Baymak, about 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) southeast of Moscow, in the southern Ural Mountains.

Several thousand people had gathered outside the courthouse to support Alsynov, who was convicted of inciting hatred and sentenced to four years in prison, according to OVD-Info, a Russian rights group that tracks political arrests and offers legal aid.
Police used tear gas and batons to disperse the crowd, which chanted “Fail, we stand with you!” along with “Freedom!" and “Disgrace!” They demanded the ouster of Bashkortostan's governor and hurled snowballs at officers, OVD-Info and local media reported. Dozens of people were detained and injured, OVD-Info said.

Alsynov was a leader of a group that advocated for preserving the Bashkir language and culture, and protested limestone and gold mining operations in the region. The group, called Bashkort, was outlawed as extremist in 2020.

He faced charges after a speech last year in an unsanctioned rally against gold mining, Russian independent news outlet Mediazona reported.

 

The person in question has also been targeted for opposition to the mobilization.

Putin Deploys Rosgvardia Reinforcements as Protesters Clash With Police (newsweek.com)

Quote

In December 2022, Alsynov, 37, spoke out against the war in Ukraine started by Putin, calling his partial mobilization a "genocide of the Bashkir peoples" in a VKontakte post that landed him a 10,000 ruble ($113) fine for violating wartime censorship laws.

 

Edited January 17 by sburke

[Seedorf81]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The one thing you have to remember about Prig is that he was not promising peace and bread, he was promising to fight harder and more competently. This might have limited his revolutionary appeal.

More generally I think if Russia really has a bottom up political convulsion it will be very much like the Arab Spring. A random spark in a random place, except the fire department manages to pour gasoline on it instead of water. 

Yeah, trouble is that nobody knows what will really happen. I do think however that 2024 will be a year with more surprises than 2023.

Climate, China, Biden/Trump/other, Venezuela, Iran, North-Korea, Russia, Africa, Israel, new global virus, just some things that are in motion or may be big troublemakers. And probably some things we never expected.

We live in exciting times, that's for sure..

 

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The 1905 Revolution went hot with the Bloody Sunday shootings of demonstrators at the Winter Palace. The 1917 Revolution began in earnest when soldiers revolted at the violent suppression of demonstrators also. 

Watch the demonstrations. 

 

Indeed, popular revolutions succeed when the soldiers & police decide to not shoot.  That's one thing often overlooked.  When the police also have no heat or are angry for whatever reasons or are just not wanting to kill people they identify with, things can rapidly change.

[Haiduk]

Russian TG today shared information that units of 810th naval infantry brigade recaptured the center of Krynky and raised flag there. Though since some time other TG has writen this was stupid action of command to show for higher chiefs that "Tout va tres bien, madame la Marquise", so the flag hanged just about a hour.

UKR TG refuted any Russian assaults today

Approximate situation in Krynky now

Some sources claimed Russian began to esteblish defensive line in 3 km from Krynky behind M-14 road. Allegedly this can be a sign that Teplinskiy, who sent to the grave huge number of troops in stupid direct assaults probably will be removed from command here and this is a sign of changing of Russian tactic.

 

[Haiduk]

Hm... Our response to jet Shahed-238.... eee... jet "Bober"(?). By the way fragments of shot down allegedly Shahed-238 were shown about week ago, but Air Force Command can't confirm this was exactly this type of drone. 

Reportedly this UKR jet strike drone still under tests. 

 

Edited January 17 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Well, 92nd assault brigade is no more a single unit in Ground Forces (if not count National Guard) who has BTR-4. Now 56th motorized brigade also uses them. There was in info from soldiers in twitter that all brigades, estalished as motorized in 2015 - 56th, 57th, 58th, 59th now became mechanized, but  I don't see this changes in official naming yet

  

 

Edited January 17 by Haiduk

[sburke]

Turkey Follows China in Move Likely to Infuriate Putin (msn.com)

Turkish banks have started to refuse to work with Russian banks, according to a Russian media report, which follows a similar move by institutions in China to avoid secondary sanctions linked to Vladimir Putin's full-scale Ukraine invasion.

Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported on Wednesday that Turkish banks had terminated relationships with almost all Russian credit institutions and suspended payment processing, although there was an exception for foreign subsidiary banks in Russia.

Sources told the paper that dealings between Turkish banks and Russia were complicated by U.S. President Joe Biden's executive order in December imposing secondary sanctions against foreign firms that help Moscow in the war.
Biden's order allows U.S. authorities to disconnect foreign banks from the U.S. financial system that violate sanctions imposed against Moscow.

Logistics companies working with Turkey told Kommersant that cross-border payments have become much more complicated and that more data and documents were required to confirm that sanctions rules were not being violated.

A source in Turkey's banking sector told Russian state news agency Tass that Turkish institutions were "in a holding pattern." This was because Biden's order required additional clarification, as it was "very broadly worded" under the rules of the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury Department.

 

 

Meanwhile, independent Russian language news outlet The Bell reported that the move by Western countries to block Russian firms from circumventing sanctions "so far looks strong" and that it now meant that "Russia was in trouble with its largest trading partners, China and Turkey."

The Bell said that "problems with international settlements should also be expected" in other countries that Russia terms "friendly" potentially adding to transaction costs and the prices of imported goods.

 

 

 

[sburke]

War in Ukraine Drains Nearly Half of Russia’s Liquid Assets (yahoo.com)

Russia’s government has tapped almost half of the national wealth fund’s available reserves to shield the economy against the fallout from its almost two-year war in Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future shocks.

The National Wellbeing Fund’s holdings of cash and investments that can be easily liquidated slumped to 5 trillion rubles ($56.5 billion) at the end of last year from 8.9 trillion rubles before the war, while total holdings fell almost 12% to 12 trillion rubles, Finance Ministry data showed. The value of the fund’s stakes in Russian companies and in bonds that were issued to finance infrastructure projects has surged by more than 2 trillion rubles, according to Bloomberg calculations.

“The total size of the NWF seems quite irrelevant now that a big chunk of it has been invested in Russian shares and infrastructure – essentially illiquid investments,” said Tatiana Orlova, economist at Oxford Economics. “Only liquid investments can be considered as rainy day reserves, the rest is gone.”

The wealth fund, which has taken years to build up its assets, is set to come under further pressure as Russia’s economy continues to be buffeted by sanctions that were imposed by Western nations in response to President Vladimir Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Finance Ministry tapped around 3 trillion rubles from the fund to cover the budget deficit last year as it ramped up spending on the military and measures to cushion the economy. It plans to take another 1.3 trillion rubles this year.

In addition, budget rules provide for NWF funds to be paid over to the Finance Ministry to compensate it for a loss of export revenue should its earnings from oil sales undershoot the budget estimate of $60 a barrel.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“If oil prices continue to ignore the risks of supply disruption from the Israel-Hamas war, the remaining stock of the NWF’s liquid assets will continue to dwindle, making Russia increasingly vulnerable to shocks. It will last only another one to two years if Russia’s oil export price declines below $50.”

[Haiduk]

Sourse of this infornation is unknown, it's as if a list of dead on A-50 and IL-22 planes:

Russian TG writes, that Russian generals decided to share as official the version of friendly fire. They already pointed "guilty" AD unit and official version will be this was mistaken launch from Krasnodar region. But nobody in clear mind in troops don't believe in this 

The list of dead:

A-50:

lt. colonel V.Levchenko - vessel commander and other 5 members of crew (two majors, two captains, sen.lieutenant). This list is not complete.

IL-22:

colonel Burmistrov (allegedly)

There is no information eirther was present onboard ot not the deputy commander of Long-range aviation Command lt.general Pchela.

 

Some UKR sources hinted that Russian planes were hit by Patriots, but tracking radar was Ukranian/Soviet. This was a result of work of FrankenSAM program - integration of Soviet/Ukrainian AD systems into western. Probably Russian crew spotted radiation of UKR radar, but though they are safe, because S-300 can't reach them, but got Patriot missile. 

Air Force Command claimed this night first time was successfully used one of FrankenSAM system, which destroyed Shahed in 9 km from Odesa. Except project Patriot+UKR/Soviet radar, also exists two other - Buk+ Sparrow missiles and AIM-9+radar (I give up how it can work, maybe AIM-120 meant)

Edited January 17 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Russia is more isolated now than it has been since the Cold War.  The trend appears to increasing as the US continues to exert its own power.  Is Russia completely isolate, no, not yet.  But one cannot say that is had been business as usual either.

Yes , but how that benefits Ukraine? Russia may buckle down in timespan of 5-10 years, but it will be enough to wear down its enemy before that time. Also Russia was never meant to be compoletelly isolated...one can see at Africa and Middle East, they don't seem to shrink their presence and have some undisputed successes, like pushing Frenchmen out of some African states. Hopefully temporarly; but it is sure entire world does not see Russia as a dead horse as we would like.

About US really exerting power we need to wait till elections...it seems for now it is USA that is much more undecided than Russia, with current champion for th seat calling Putin his buddy and that he will end war in 24h. Now it's Trump, so his hands may end in very different place than his mouth was, but who will sit in White House it will be deciding point of 2024 and likely this war. It is UA who is on trajectory for dramatically shrinked options in this phase rather than RU (unless muscovite economy is so bad it will somehow collapse earlier). If UA get lucky, they will play into another round and then perhaps Russia will face their own phase of doom and gloom.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Russia is definitely constrained in its ability to wage war.  We do not know the full effects of these sanctions on the economy but we do know that Russia is pulling from far afield to sustain itself.  I think there is an argument to be made on Putin wanting to avoid full mobilization because it may create a tipping point amongst the population - a restrained economy has to be part of that calculus.  Can Russia still fight?  Sure.  But can it field a modern competitive military right now...no freakin way.

On other side, they did arguably replugged what they could quite effectively regarding industry and bypassed sanctions wherever they could (Kazaklhstan noted something like 1000% yearly growth more in certain business areas). It can be argued that defeats already gave Russian military impulses for change in certain fields- namely, precision fires and specifically drones- that were unthinkable before 2022. Electronic Warfare is for example still their trump card and they produce enough missiles to sustain another air campaign (if it is really directed at achieving most effects is another matter).

There are pros and cons; I personally don't think we have enough non-anecdotal evidence to claim who is militarly on winning curve right now.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Are the Russian people actually doing anything about all this?  Who knows. 

Well, this we actually know..."if it doesn't quacks like duck, doesn't walks like duck it probably simply isn't a duck ... If there would be massive examples of disobey, civil unrest and other signs of visible opposition for this war- we would surely see them by now. Several actions of extremelly few brave souls are noble, but don't change overal trajectory.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

But these things can take years to fully come to bear.  One could argue that the sanctions regime is as much about the next war with Russia as the current one.

So before anyone throws up their hands and goes "Sanctions are not working!!"  Really look at what they are doing.  And more importantly how much worse the situation would be if we had never undertaken them.  We won't know about Russia breaking until it does.

Well sure some sanctions are better than no sanctions, there is probably nobody here arguing that. It is also difficult to say if even in ideal world, with hardest, longest economcial stick from enraged West Russia could be isolated- world is simply to connected for it. But on other side, hoping sanctions and Russians  do something is not viable long-term strategy for victory. And certainly not the one that can be sold to keep Ukraine in game; a country that already face massive mobiliziation/morale problems at least as severe as Russian ones. Keeping national morale in Ukraine at stable level will likely be one of points of this game in 2024.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, that is one way to look at it.  How about what we did not see?  Russian mothers were not standing arm in arm on the highways leading into Moscow to protect Putin either.  Apathy cuts both ways frankly.  Massive inaction, does not mean massive action in another direction.

Exactly, also my talking point in this debates for something like last 1500 pages. That is why Prigozhin march was for population like watching two pokemons fighting on limited arena, not some existential thing like Russia suddenly breaking (even civil war) or even more phantstically, partitioning itself into regions, like some in western Hemisphere (and silently even some Ukrainians) seemed to expect. Nothing of this sort happened even around Wagner disobedience.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

On this.  Did you ever consider that Europeans, particularly Eastern Europeans are too close to the problem?  Too much history, too much bias and just...too much?  I hear this "westerners just don't get it" a lot.  But maybe our perspective is a bit more unshadowed by Russia.  In the West we know all about "grudging, cursing and complaining", we have built entire industries around those concepts.  Our system looks entirely dysfunctional from the outside based on how much we disagree. 

By means of "grudging, cursing and complaining" I meaned "social glue" and common human interactions that are thriving on it in Russia; yes, West managed to turn them into political arguments and ultimatelly define rules of civil society to tame them. It internalized, destilled and crucially politicized quarells as packages of issues (we call them ideas or values) to deal with in civilized way and go on. This is very different than post-Soviet way of complaining as social activity for sake of itself. And the latter one can be misleading for untrained eyes.

Ok, this is direction of this debate that ges nowhere- I was never sold for this "clueless Westerners and cassandric Eastern Europeans" narration nor propagated it here by any post; in fact I made several times a talking point we have in PL limited view of this conflict due to lack of nuclear perspective, like USA/Russia has. *

That being said- popular perception is what rules populations, and politians must hear their voters in long term. So about Russian will to continue war: yes, I think overal Western European public seriously underestimate role of certain areas of Russian psyche, while skipping over others. We literally observe how stereotypes are proven real on our eyes- Russians are throwing their males into meatgrinder with zeal that (most of) us would think impossible after WWII, without major sign of collapse, and seem to like it, or at the most- shrugg their shoulders. I tend to do a roundup over Russian infosphere  (pro-Z, "opposition" and most important one- people following nachuism- i.e. not caring about it at all) every month or so in more details, and sadly don't there any visible signs of breaking or serious discontent. Even smallest, frankly. Yeah, they complain that winter is harsh, eggs are pricely and officials are corrupt; but so what?

I mean, comme on- after two years they still take actual volunteers into Storm-Z detachments, where chances of survival are like playing (nomen omen) Russian rulette with single-shot breechloader. Nobody will convince me this is normal in non-existential, non-religious war, that has all its cruelties streamlined online like if dozen Hannibal Lecters would suddenly open own legal YT channels. And yet, they go.

 

* Btw. I am not Eastern European. I am Central one- that was formated by Latin culture and republicanism, very distinct from mix of orthodoxy and despotism that influenced (or was imposed on) terrains of modern Belarus, partly Ukraine and Balts...and Russia itself- the region we can correctly call Eastern Europe. This is common habit of throwing everyone east of Oder river into one sack "former Warsaw Pact". But historically, it isn't real.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

But that vs armed troops off the freakin leash marching on the capital...is something else entirely.  Stuff exploding all over the place.  Rich people continually trying to fly out windows. 

That is good example of beformentioned misunderstanding...how many Russians not directly involved in war actually flew from windows (or met their deaths) since 2022? One dozen? Maybe two? Somebody important- an oligarch, his mistress or son? A politician perhaps? Nope. In Russian terms-often expressed in fears of real persecutions burned in their collective psyche by generations, with hot iron- Putin is still benevolent and very rational leader. It is his greatest claim to authority and fame; that is one of reasons he avoided mobilziation and wide repercussions for so long time, apart from material factors of course.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The amount of effort and expense Russia is spending on "internal security".  Evidence of extremely poor discipline and conditions within its military.  All this stuff starts to stack up well beyond "I want a better cellphone plan."

I didn't see yet any data regarding their spending on internal security alone...it is interesting issue we didn't discussed here, btw.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We project so much onto Russia - hope and fears.  When we should spend more time just watching the damn duck.  Is it walking and talking like a duck?  Is it making weird sounds that in any other nation we would see as signs of strain?  Russia is not in a good place.  There is no doubt of that. 

Oh, 100% agree it is not. But before it realizes it is in dark s..thole (and cause of whom), a lot of water in Volga will need to pass, like some old Russian writer told. Btw.- take adjustment on sheer size of this country; any social processess there takes very slow turn. UA doesn't have such comfort.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Finally, what does that mean to the war?  Well the big one is that Russia's ability to field a modern military able to conduct operational level offensive operations is in serious doubt.  They had the goods two years ago but that old lady filmed on that first week was right all along - The RA of 2021 is in Ukrainian fields pushing up sunflowers.  What is on the ground now is largely conscripts and essentially holding on while being wasted on small tactical suicide missions. We were all surprised that they could even hold the lines they have, but there you go.  War, or at least this war, has shifted towards defensive advantage, that much is pretty much settled.  That had nothing to do with Russian prowess or resources, and everything to do with shifts over the last 40 years. 

Yup, we - or rather Ukraine- are in clinch phase of conflict, at least till late spring. I am not at all in "doom and gloom" camp here, but frankly I am very concern by Kremlin's reading of events and overall attitudes in second half of 2023; they visibly managed to catch breath from something looking like deathspirall. Even Putin seems to be more and more frank with its population, calling SMO war pretty freely and admitting it will take at least 2-3 years of slaughter until West "come to its senses".

Anwyay, we will see. Both camps here are watching into tealeaves at the moment and hoping.

Edited January 17 by Beleg85

[sburke]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, we - or rather Ukraine- are in clinch phase of conflict, at least till late spring. I am not at all in "doom and gloom" camp here

could have fooled me.   I'm watching Russia's economy buckling and the latest sanction declaration from the US in December has both Turkey and China reevaluating their financial ties.  Meanwhile despite some grumbling western aid is still pumping into Ukraine.  Russia losing command planes, airfields getting hit, infrastructure going down the toilet.. well for those who actually have toilets.  The Colonel responsible for defending the Kerch bridge just got jail time...

Russia Colonel Given Jail Time Over Crimea's Inadequate Defenses (msn.com)

Are things on the Ukraine side all rosy and wonderful?  No, but I'd rather be in Ukraine's shoes than Russia's.

[Harmon Rabb]

46 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

* Btw. I am not Eastern European. I am Central one- that was formated by Latin culture and republicanism, very distinct from mix of orthodoxy and despotism that influenced (or was imposed on) terrains of modern Belarus, partly Ukraine and Balts...and Russia itself- the region we can correctly call Eastern Europe. This is common habit of throwing everyone east of Oder river into one sack "former Warsaw Pact". But historically, it isn't real.

I did always find it kinda peculiar how a country like Slovenia which literally borders Italy and Croatia which practically borders Italy are sometimes called eastern Europe.

Heck, Yugoslavia was not even in the Warsaw Pact.

But what all of this reminds me is why when I post here I try not to speak of a western, central or eastern Europe. I just say Europe. I always felt like everyone has a different definition of what countries really represent those regions.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

could have fooled me.   I'm watching Russia's economy buckling and the latest sanction declaration from the US in December has both Turkey and China reevaluating their financial ties.  Meanwhile despite some grumbling western aid is still pumping into Ukraine.  Russia losing command planes, airfields getting hit, infrastructure going down the toilet.. well for those who actually have toilets.  The Colonel responsible for defending the Kerch bridge just got jail time...

Russia Colonel Given Jail Time Over Crimea's Inadequate Defenses (msn.com)

Are things on the Ukraine side all rosy and wonderful?  No, but I'd rather be in Ukraine's shoes than Russia's.

Oh, not at all dooming - but we should be very aware of turning this board into echo chamber, and truth to be told it sometimes slips into this a little. I am sceptical for example of taking attitude that McNamarra did in Vietnam: bodycounting. Because after another thosuand dead youngsters Vietnamese surely back down, right? Now Russians are able to replenish their human losses enough to keep meet-feeing machine going. No visible signs of serious stoppages. It is quite amazing given scale of this slaughter.

We will need to see about China true effects of this; probably not before first quarter of 2023 we will know more.

Russian constant rotation of commanders from day one of this war is partly effect of some militaries being to close to Wagner, not necessarly effect of lack of results. Recent smearing campaign against VDV general Teplinsky, where supposed nude photos of his wife were circulating, was likely part of such internal games.

Yup, Russia is getting some bloody nose. Ukraine military infastructure is also getting hammered by strikes (only later it is admitted) and personnell losses take a very brutal and visible toll on their military-age population; just number of MIA is officially deemed to be above 15 thousands. Note that mobilization of successive recruit years in Ukraine will be very painfull process as well. I would really like officers hunting in gyms, cafees and dormitories would only be stunts from Z-propaganda; unfortunatelly they are not. I would even risk of going as far as saying chances of soldiers disobeying orders and marching on capital to cut some corrupt officials are roughly similar both in UA nad RU, if judging by temperature of politcal rows and opinions of Ukrainian friends (note probably these chances are low overal and this may be simply another colour of politcal culture in UA, not real thing). Things are not pretty among them now.

On other side, recent decisive stances by British and French PM's are god direction. There is deifnitelly battle of wills going on here, perhaps more important than in 2023, due to stalemate at the front. All in all, typical for static, attritional war without clear strategy for winning on either side.

Ok, enough of it. Let's unban Zeleban so he could take the lead.

Edited January 17 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am sceptical for example of taking attitude that McNamarra did in Vietnam: bodycounting. Because after another thosuand dead youngsters Vietnamese surely back down, right?

for sure.  Killing russians matters but, while that is a tactical imperative, until it makes an operational/strategic difference it doesn't tell us that much.  It could make an operational difference if there were some local mutiny by men not wanting to be slaughtered that gained momentum and led to UKR making some valuable gain.  Strategically the only way I see it mattering is if it leads to some popular unrest where the guys w guns decide they are sick of their countrymen being sent to slaughter.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

distinct from mix of orthodoxy and despotism that influenced (or was imposed on) terrains of modern Belarus, partly Ukraine and Balts...and Russia itself- the region we can correctly call Eastern Europe.

Lol

My partner is from one of the Baltic States. She has been VERY clear that they're part of Northen Europe, not Eastern, thankyouverymuch

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, JonS said:

Lol

My partner is from one of the Baltic States. She has been VERY clear that they're part of Northen Europe, not Eastern, thankyouverymuch

I had a girlfriend long time ago from Lithuania, she very firmly insisted caling her Central European, while her friends viewed themselves as half-Russians. Baltics are crossroads, it depends whom you ask and where. Also, they are unique in NATO actually possessing significant Russian minorities.

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

IL-22:

colonel Burmistrov (allegedly)

There is no information eirther was present onboard ot not the deputy commander of Long-range aviation Command lt.general Pchela.

Interesting thing in this Il-22 case is that it still managed to come back and land, despite bloody mess inside.

Edited January 18 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Hm... Our response to jet Shahed-238.... eee... jet "Bober"(?). By the way fragments of shot down allegedly Shahed-238 were shown about week ago, but Air Force Command can't confirm this was exactly this type of drone. 

Reportedly this UKR jet strike drone still under tests. 

 

Another demonstration of why you might want to hold off purchasing an F-35 any time soon.  Think of how many of these you can buy with $100m.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Well, this we actually know..."if it doesn't quacks like duck, doesn't walks like duck it probably simply isn't a duck ... If there would be massive examples of disobey, civil unrest and other signs of visible opposition for this war- we would surely see them by now. Several actions of extremelly few brave souls are noble, but don't change overal trajectory.

You bring up some good points.  I think it may come down to which shade of grey one chooses to view the conflict through.  I am going to pick on this one though:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/08/23/russians-have-emigrated-in-huge-numbers-since-the-war-in-ukraine

For a nation not physically being invaded…this is “not nothing”.  If mass exodus of a million people - most well educated and well off from what we can tell - is not a sign of a freakin sick duck I don’t know what is.  Now Google “immigration to Russia” and tell me what you see.

This is like sanctions - if one wants to see that nothing is happening…well then that is what they will see.  Russian isolation benefiting Ukraine…well isolation economically means no one is going to loan Russia money and that is what actually makes the world go around.  Russia has managed to keep its military afloat…barely - I would not be surprised at all this winter is we saw more mutinies and the like.  Just because the RA can sit in water filled holes and cover minefields does not mean they are a credible military force.  Until I see a real operational offensive from the RA that goes anywhere, I am not jumping in the “Russian military is still fine” camp.

The UA has engineered three successful operational offensives in this entire war so far.  Russia has had zero.  Closest Russia came was Priggy, who made the single longest advance  the war…towards Moscow.  Yet we are pointing to Ukraine like all is lost and Russia is waiting to unleash like a coiled spring.  

The reality is that things are bad for Russia.  Ukraine may not be able to break this deadlock but frankly I don’t know of a modern military that may be able to for some time.  So What?  Well Ukraine is free and moving west.  Even if the US balks - and that is a big leap btw.  Europe will have to step up and keep Ukraine in the game.

 

[Vet 0369]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:02 PM, chrisl said:

Or dive underneath with the shaped charge pointing up.

Like the Soviet antitank dog mines during WWII? It wouldn’t be very difficult considering the clearances under most tanks, then someone would have to invent an “anti drone curtain” to prevent them! Think of the profits!!

[Vet 0369]

On 1/16/2024 at 2:41 PM, Haiduk said:

Bradley dismountles abandoned Russian BMP-2 near Avdiivka - video from close range

 

Excellent fire discipline at about1:40 through 1:50. I’m assuming the rifle has a burst or auto function, but he is snapping off single shots. Also, the automatic fire you can hear in the background is three to five round bursts. Good fire discipline saves A LOT of ammo!

[dan/california]

Much better footage of the the Bradley encounter