How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Yesterday Ukrainian troops managed to throw back Russians on one section of nortern flank of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Ivanivske. Our troops regained control over the cementry and dairy farm complex near Khromove

On other hand today's morning Russians could seize dachas east of Ivanivske

On southern section of Bakhmut front main clashes now for the fortified hill near Klishciivka. Since 3rd assault brigade withdrew for rest and replenishment, backbone of defense here became 5th assault brigade. After intensive assaults of the hill and huge losses Russians slighly reduced intensivity of assaults, but continue it anyway. In recent days they could push back our troops behind railway north from Klishchiivka, but judging on Russian TG messages, UKR artillery received new batch of shells, so could intensify own support, cutting off any further attempts of Russians to advance.

According to Kostiantyn Mashovets, Russians are moving 57th motor-rifle brigade from southern flank of Bakhmut to Avdiivka sector, so Avdiivka is bigger priority for Russian command.  

[Haiduk]

Amid Mi-24 and Mi-8 Ukraine uses some number of Mi-2MSB helicopters - Ukrainian upgraded Mi-2. Before the war there were even variants of armed Mi-2 and even ASW version, but thanks God, taxpayers money were saved to be wasted for these useless projects. Despite this Mi-2 still carry out own humble service as light transport helicopters for transporting small cargo, high-ranked officers and wounded.

This Mi-2 and his crew of GUR, resqued hundreds of lives, evacuating them from stabilization points to hospitals in the rear.

Accordong to Orix five Mi-2 were lost: two destroyed (one of them in crash) and three captured on Chornobaivka airfield.

  

Edited December 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Aragorn2002]

48 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Merry Christmas and a happy new year and whatever other holidays you folks may celebrate on this forum, and more importantly to the AFU personnel fighting the good fight.

 

I have the feeling this war is going to escalate and expand all over the world. Silly perhaps, but I have the feeling we are all heading for war. Or whatever they call it nowadays.

[Haiduk]

Air Force Command press-secreter made a statement that F-16, which Ukriane can receive already on next week (though already there are many conspiracy all three Su-34 were shot down by F-16) were upgraded with more long-range radars

Netherlands and Denmark, whose jets will arrive first have F-16A/OCU/MLU versions. It's unknown what exact we will receive. But likley these are older jets, which now upgrading to MLU level. But I want to believe we will get some better than MLU. 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

42 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I have the feeling this war is going to escalate and expand all over the world. Silly perhaps, but I have the feeling we are all heading for war. Or whatever they call it nowadays.

I'd say you are correct.  Putin is at war with democracies all over the world for many years now.  It's a war he wages by  fostering ignorance/stupidity/racism, promoting demagogues and weakening our institutions.  

[Haiduk]

One grenade, dropped from the drone and hit BMP has stopped advance of Russian armored assault group. Video of 79th air-assault brigade, south from Maryinka

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

One grenade, dropped from the drone and hit BMP has stopped advance of Russian armored assault group. Video of 79th air-assault brigade, south from Maryinka

 

Good example of a safe lane being compromised.  It doesn’t take much in this day and age.

[Haiduk]

Updated information about UKR and RUS losses in Kherson oblast along Dnipro (not only in Krynky area) on both banks of the river

Russia lost 133, Ukraine 18 (also 11 RIBs and boats, not included to the table)

Ukrainian losses:

Russian losses (likely only one Su-34 was counted, because despite even Russian side confirmed loss of more than one jet, but photo evidence was only for the one bomber)

Edited December 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Hmmm... An information has apperaed UKR troops of 48th separate assault battalion seized the lighthouse on Tendra Spit. No any other confirmations yet. 

Here is a location 

 

Photo of lighthouse for the scale

48th separate assault battalion of Territorial Defense is a new unit, formed in Autumn 2023 as a unit of Crimean Tatars, who will fight for liberation of peninsula. But, of course not only ethnic Tatars serve there. This battlion was formed on the base of 251st TD battalion of 241st TD brigade (Kyiv), having experience of Kyiv battle and Bakhmut.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[OBJ]

On 12/22/2023 at 5:57 PM, dan/california said:

This book contains four excellent case studies of some of the biggest turnovers in military technology from the last ~150 years. I thought it was excellent, and i learned a lot from it.

https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300234091/the-origins-of-victory/

re @The_Capt discussion on strategy, I agree with @dan/california, very good reference, published in 2023.

[Yet]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Updated information about UKR and RUS losses in Kherson oblast along Dnipro (not only in Krynky area) on both banks of the river

Russia lost 133, Ukraine 18 (also 11 RIBs and boats, not included to the table)

Ukrainian losses:

Russian losses (likely only one Su-34 was counted, because despite even Russian side confirmed loss of more than one jet, but photo evidence was only for the one bomber)

the number of lost drones strikes me. Id expect it to be surely in the double numbers compared to the rest. Are they not being used? not being targeted? or not being downed? 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Yet said:

Id expect it to be surely in the double numbers compared to the rest. Are they not being used? not being targeted? or not being downed? 

Just not counted. Most of used drones are small Mavic-type. It's impossible to count them.

[OBJ]

Kind of combining @Aragorn2002 @Haiduk  @Harmon Rabb and others...

Prayer for Ukraine, not original.

"Grant us fair weather for Battle. Graciously hearken to us as soldiers who call upon Thee that, armed with Thy power, we may advance from victory to victory, and crush the oppression and wickedness of our enemies and establish Thy justice among men and nations. Amen."

I can thank God I get to be a member of this forum and sit in my clean cloths, freshly showered, dry and warm, belly full, relaxed under a sky free of enemy drones and missiles, with no worry to man my position in a cold muddy trench to hold off the next enemy assault, and take in and share thoughts on the military and political nature of present and future conflicts 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by OBJ

[poesel]

My wish for Christmas is 'Swan Lake' on Russian TV on repeat.

[Haiduk]

Next week in Ukraine will beat up temperature records - +8..13 is expected

 

[Vet 0369]

On 12/20/2023 at 2:10 PM, dan/california said:

 

We won't be able to say we weren't warned. The entire West needs to go to wartime level munitions production NOW. That would be between five and twenty five times more than we are producing now.

What isn’t included here is that Xi used a very specific term during his discussion with Biden. That term was “Peacefully.” When we quote a statement, we should truthfully post the entire statement, not just that which supports our argument!

[Haiduk]

Odesa was struck by five missiles. Onix or Iskander-M

Reportedly at the same time Russian Su-30 was shot down over Black Sea, when launched a missile toward Odesa. No confirmations yet. 

UPD 1. Not confirmed. Explosion in Zalizhyi Port area wasn't related to jet falling. Su-30 really was in airspace, but either could evade the missile (using EW pod, for example) or was damaged and could fly back. Maybe Fighterbomber will tell more %)

UPD 2. Air Force Command officially claimed Su-34 was shot down on Mariupol direction. About Su-30 near Odesa it's claime "we worked at it, now objective control data is verifying to confirm was it shot down or not". So, will expect Fighterbomber comment too

UPD 3. UKR TG assotiated with Vitaliy Kim, the head of Mykolaiv oblast administration writes about Su-30:

You [Russians] can fundrise in absentia for burials for pilot with callsign "....-833". He will not so lucky next time like today.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

On 12/20/2023 at 4:20 PM, dan/california said:

 

There have two REAL emergency landings, and what appears to be spiraling mechanical delays in the last few months. Russia bought quite a few newish planes over the last twenty years, and they are just really hard to keep going without manufacturer support.

There is really no reason that the Russians should be having issues with aircraft maintenance. They actually have a very competent industrial and manufacturing base tha should be capable of producing virtually any airframe or engine part that they need, unless they have cannibalized their competent machinists, engineers, and mechanics as meat for the SMO. Now, it could be a completely different story if they can’t get the electronics, computers, and such to main their manufacturing base.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

There is really no reason that the Russians should be having issues with aircraft maintenance. They actually have a very competent industrial and manufacturing base tha should be capable of producing virtually any airframe or engine part that they need, unless they have cannibalized their competent machinists, engineers, and mechanics as meat for the SMO. Now, it could be a completely different story if they can’t get the electronics, computers, and such to main their manufacturing base.

I think you are underestimating three factors that are contributing the Russians commercial aircraft maintenance issues. The first is the extraordinarily tight grip that Airbus and Boeing keep on the parts and maintenance business/process. They do this both because they get the blame when a plane has a problem, and because it makes them a great deal of money. This is facilitated by the highly regulated nature of the business among other things.

The second issue is that Russia did not launch a full scale program ten years ago to ready to get around the first problem. There are a lot of things they COULD have have done with several years of lead time, but the plan to actually invade was very held to an extraordinarily small group, and even that nasty little cabal in the Kremlin did not have a clue that they were looking at a multi year major war, with massive sanctions and so on. Nobody even tried to prepare for this in advance.

The third problem, that massively exacerbates the second one, is that the same limited pool of people and resources that might be able to do something about the problem are also being ordered to make an absolute maximum 24/7 effort to increase the production of everything from small arms ammo to Su-34s and Iskanders. I don't think the Russian airlines are at the front of that line. I am not even sure they are IN that line.

When you add up  the three factors, and the general Russian disregard for anything resembling safety, my advice is take the train.

[paxromana]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

When you add up  the three factors, and the general Russian disregard for anything resembling safety, my advice is take the train.

But probably not the BAM (Baikal-Amur Mainline) ... or anywhere near bridges or tunnels.

[danfrodo]

39 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think you are underestimating three factors that are contributing the Russians commercial aircraft maintenance issues. The first is the extraordinarily tight grip that Airbus and Boeing keep on the parts and maintenance business/process. They do this both because they get the blame when a plane has a problem, and because it makes them a great deal of money. This is facilitated by the highly regulated nature of the business among other things.

The second issue is that Russia did not launch a full scale program ten years ago to ready to get around the first problem. There are a lot of things they COULD have have done with several years of lead time, but the plan to actually invade was very held to an extraordinarily small group, and even that nasty little cabal in the Kremlin did not have a clue that they were looking at a multi year major war, with massive sanctions and so on. Nobody even tried to prepare for this in advance.

The third problem, that massively exacerbates the second one, is that the same limited pool of people and resources that might be able to do something about the problem are also being ordered to make an absolute maximum 24/7 effort to increase the production of everything from small arms ammo to Su-34s and Iskanders. I don't think the Russian airlines are at the front of that line. I am not even sure they are IN that line.

When you add up  the three factors, and the general Russian disregard for anything resembling safety, my advice is take the train.

uhhhh, corruption?  Graft and corruption in many industries don't have quite the immediate, catastrophic consequences that would occur with aircraft maintenence.  Charging for but pretending to replace expensive components when required.  Or using substandard components because so much cheaper.  Not running proper tests but signing off as if it was done, because running tests costs labor & time.  Over time, and not a very long time, corruption in maintenence would start showing up thru mix of planes having issues in the sky, some disasterous, some not.

[Letter from Prague]

35 minutes ago, paxromana said:

But probably not the BAM (Baikal-Amur Mainline) ... or anywhere near bridges or tunnels.

I would also recommend against Kerch Bridge.

Merry Christmas, everyone.

[Battlefront.com]

Watching some of the videos in the last page gave me three quick thoughts about contributing factors to the rise of defensive primacy in this war:

1.  the frontlines are pretty well established, which means each side has a lot of local knowledge to guide it's ISR activities.  Fast moving battles do the opposite. 

2.  all units on one side know that anything beyond a line on the map is hostile.  Thanks to GPS and other modern navigational aides, this means each side can unleash sudden destruction upon the other without having to worry about friendly fire.  Not that Russia has shown much concern about this anyway

3.  the presence of drones is so pervasive and deadly that soldiers seem to be adopting an attitude of "if one has found us, there will be more and soon". This is not good for keeping up morale while on the attack, even if the first strike wasn't all that effective.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Here's to wishing everybody a Merry Christmas!  Even though most Ukrainians are on a different calendar than many of us, that shouldn't matter because good wishes are good wishes

Steve

[dan/california]

Merry Christmas all.

To the Ukrainians in the trenches, and to the families who can't think about anything else, I wish you victory, peace, and that next year it will all be a bad memory. Churchill had a little speech about how much the many owed the few, It applies to Ukrainian soldiers as much or more than anybody in history.