Maciej Zwolinski Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 43 minutes ago, poesel said: The problem of the rocket laying system is its size. It's a tank or tank sized. And it is a single piece of expensive equipment that you probably don't have that many of. Those systems get killed fast if they trundle slowly around in the open. If you have drones doing the mine clearing (=placing the C4), then you have small & cheap pieces of equipment you can have lots of. And you have variable clearing depth as well. Let's assume such a drone system costs 10k (I'm talking about that plywood fixed wing thing). A mine clearing tank costs 5m (also a guess). You could have 500 drones for a price of one tank, and those drones could clear a 5 km(!) path through mines, even if every single one of them would be lost after one use. Of course, this is not the Wunderwaffe that fixes mines & breaching alone. But to think of the possibilities of what drones could do at an industrial scale is... interesting. Lots of current weapon systems are being made obsolete in a very short time. I'm not sure if that is with precedent. If I only knew any military historians, I could ask... Amen, and thanks! I was harping on this pet idea of mine but I could have no hope of supporting it with such wonderful calculations, as I have no way with numbers. But I was the voice calling in the wilderness and along came someone who is mightier than I, and I am unfit to untie the thong of his sandals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) Quote https://www.instagram.com/p/C1LGx1_NemN/ An instagram video from United 24. It does an excellent job of making the point that the people in Western capitals complaining THEY are tired need to bleeping get a grip. Apologies for posting the instagram link, I couldn't find it anywhere else, and I tried fairly hard. If someone has a link on another platform please post it. Edited December 23, 2023 by dan/california 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, The_Capt said: A single 500m line charge would be too heavy for any drone. It would take a team of drones to carry and place, which does not sound practical. Now some sort of FAB system… It could grip it by the husk! Edited December 23, 2023 by LongLeftFlank 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: It could grip it by the husk! It was a matter of time…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Latest comedy of errors. At some point these numerous catastrophic failures (which we do NOT see mirrored on the UA side) have got to sum to a force-wide loss of operating capability, offensive and defensive alike. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Wonder if Kiev Independent is following this forum. Eerily timely and well worth a read. Editorial: Why we don’t avoid ‘unpleasant’ stories about Ukraine December 22, 2023 9:23 PM https://kyivindependent.com/editorial-why-we-dont-avoid-unpleasant-stories-about-ukraine/ "Falling out of touch with reality is dangerous, especially in times of war. We saw how this disconnect with reality has been the reason behind some of the Russians’ failures. Thanks to their bad intelligence and corrupt leadership, they walked into Ukraine thinking they would take Kyiv in three days and be met with flowers. We can’t afford to fall into the same trap of ignorance." 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 7 hours ago, The_Capt said: Ok, I see where you are going. I am not sure how one would place them. A line charge runs an explosive chain from end to end. If you split the line charge into pieces, each one would need to be individually triggered. A single 500m line charge would be too heavy for any drone. It would take a team of drones to carry and place, which does not sound practical. Now some sort of FAB system… A zillion pages (= a couple of weeks) ago I proposed that a UGV or UAV fly with a cable instead of the full line charge. Then, when at its destination, activate a winch to reel a line charge to it. That fixes the problem of the massive cumulative weight of dragging the whole line charge while also trying to move the UV. The problem with this is if the line charge triggers a mine while being reeled in then the op is fooked. They can cut the deployed part from the spool and detonate what they have, but they'll need to hook up another UV with a cable and try again. On second thought, that might not be so bad as you can have a LOT of drones in reserve for the price of one engineering vehicle. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said: Latest comedy of errors. At some point these numerous catastrophic failures (which we do NOT see mirrored on the UA side) have got to sum to a force-wide loss of operating capability, offensive and defensive alike. At least one soldier mutilated by a BMP, another possible one, and several definite close calls. This, kids, is why you should never conduct a mechanized assault without adult supervision. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 9 hours ago, Zeleban said: Repulse of a massive, mechanized offensive of the Russians on the position of soldiers of the 2nd battalion of the 30th MBr in the Kupyansk direction. It is indicated that the large-caliber M2 machine gun was used to repel the attack, as well as fire from the BMP-2. Earlier there was a short segment of this video. Now there is a long version of two parts Thanks for this. The first video shows how absolutely chaotic this assault was. The number of vehicles that wound up being in the same tight spot at the same time shows how badly coordinated this attack was. More interesting is this was an attack of about company size (roughly 2x Mech Platoon and 1x Tank Platoon with a tank plow in front) where the vehicles all moved en mass to take a platoon sized objective. Hence all of the hilarity of vehicles getting in each others' way. And from there it got worse. The vehicles all pull back as fast as they can drop off and drive over their infantry. Although the video doesn't show how it happened, despite deliberately ensuring the vehicles were exposed for a minimum amount of time, they lost at least three. Once again, we see Russia trying to figure out how to keep using mass and once again we're seeing those attempts not working very well. Just imagine how much worse it would have been for the Russians if Ukraine had a lot more AT in the area. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: At least one soldier mutilated by a BMP, another possible one, and several definite close calls. This, kids, is why you should never conduct a mechanized assault without adult supervision. Here's a rare view of a mechanized assault from the Russian side. It doesn't seem particularly organised, especially after one of their BMPs gets blown up, but I have no experience to say one way or another. Edited December 23, 2023 by Offshoot 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, poesel said: There is this review from a guy who seems to very exactly know the stuff he needs from the game: https://steamcommunity.com/id/iserediuk/recommended/2707940/ There is a lot on the day-to-day drone operation in that comment. I find it interesting that he gives a 1 in 15 chance for a drone to be shot down by a soldier on the ground. That is more likely than what we thought, I think. Not a very appropriate review. The studio developer of this game from St. Petersburg and commentators actively ridicule the author of the article and thank him for his help to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Edited December 23, 2023 by Zeleban 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 hours ago, dan/california said: They seem to be telling us - Patriot sucks. But look how cool our air defense is, shooting down three planes at a time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcrof Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: A zillion pages (= a couple of weeks) ago I proposed that a UGV or UAV fly with a cable instead of the full line charge. Then, when at its destination, activate a winch to reel a line charge to it. That fixes the problem of the massive cumulative weight of dragging the whole line charge while also trying to move the UV. The problem with this is if the line charge triggers a mine while being reeled in then the op is fooked. They can cut the deployed part from the spool and detonate what they have, but they'll need to hook up another UV with a cable and try again. On second thought, that might not be so bad as you can have a LOT of drones in reserve for the price of one engineering vehicle. Steve I am quoting Steve but this is a general comment: isn't a line charge just dumb mass? You don't need hundreds of kg of explosives if you drop a small charge on every mine individually and that means you can clear a wider path with fewer assets. Sure you might miss some but it is not like a line charge is 100% effective either. The key is to adequately map the field first but I am sure a combination of ground penetrating radar, infra red, LiDAR etc combined with clever post-processing would do the trick. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 An interesting BBC documentary that uses social media posts and other sources to see what happened to Russian marines (155th brigade) around Vuhledar. It is useful as it directly contradicts with evidence what the Russian authorities are saying about the offensive and losses. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 It's officially announced the first batch of 16 Dutch F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine. A second batch will probably follow. Wilders or no Wilders. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) A long and intelligent interview/discussion with Ben Hodges, particularly on scaling up armament production. It covers much of what has been discussed here. At one point he says the west seems to have lost it's "strategic backbone". From about the 40 minute mark they discuss wargaming in preparation of the Ukrainian summer offensive. Edited December 23, 2023 by Offshoot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: A zillion pages (= a couple of weeks) ago I proposed that a UGV or UAV fly with a cable instead of the full line charge. Then, when at its destination, activate a winch to reel a line charge to it. That fixes the problem of the massive cumulative weight of dragging the whole line charge while also trying to move the UV. Ok, let's assume 100m of breaching. At about 7,5kg/m (see above) we are talking about 750kg for the weight of the line. Since you are dragging it, friction comes into play, so we double that number to 1,5t. Then the line has to be strong enough to pull itself, add weight. It has to structurally survive the whole dragging process (the C4 and the ignition mechanism have to stay in place and operable) - add weight. Let's say the whole thing equals to a pulling weight of about 2t. Now you need a winch that can pull 2t. But unless you pull that apparatus across a parking lot, there will be snags. They only way to unclog them is to pull harder. So add 50% for safety. Just found a 6t electrical winch on Amazon. Comes with a remote, that's nice. It weighs about 30kg. It pulls with 4,5kW at 5m/min. To run the winch for 20 minutes (100m / 5m/min) you need a battery with 2kWh. Another 20kg. So the winch assembly is about 50kg that you need to bring to the other side of the minefield and deploy it there. By deploy, I mean you need it to fix it to the ground to withstand at least 3t of pulling force (or 30kN for those who care). I frankly have no idea how to pull that off apart from sending a human to do it. Which is a showstopper here. I'd rather fly in 10m pieces one at a time. 1 hour ago, hcrof said: ... isn't a line charge just dumb mass? You don't need hundreds of kg of explosives if you drop a small charge on every mine individually and that means you can clear a wider path with fewer assets. ... I proposed exactly that a few pages ago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) Weather conditions... UKR ATV driver of 135th TD battaion of 114th TD brigade (Kyiv oblast) after evacuation mission under ice rain Forest road near Lyman Russian T-72B has sunk. Vodiane area, south from Avdiivka Edited December 23, 2023 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Krynky battle count 65:0 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 WWII attack vibes - likely whole Russian company in attack on foot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) Russian true-orthodox anti-drone system - a prayer to Saint Barbara "against devilish drones" Saint Barbara, great martyress and patroness, Look down at us, mourners and sufferers, Agianst devilish UAVs, sowing death and destruction. Keep us in faith and hope, give us strength and courage, So as not to lose heart and despair In the struggle for true and freedom Our patroness, pray God for us, So as He to spare us And rid us of evil slanders of our foes Amen. Almost movie scene. Russian company prayer before next "meat assault" near Avdiivka. Edited December 23, 2023 by Haiduk 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, poesel said: The problem of the rocket laying system is its size. It's a tank or tank sized. And it is a single piece of expensive equipment that you probably don't have that many of. Those systems get killed fast if they trundle slowly around in the open. If you have drones doing the mine clearing (=placing the C4), then you have small & cheap pieces of equipment you can have lots of. And you have variable clearing depth as well. Let's assume such a drone system costs 10k (I'm talking about that plywood fixed wing thing). A mine clearing tank costs 5m (also a guess). You could have 500 drones for a price of one tank, and those drones could clear a 5 km(!) path through mines, even if every single one of them would be lost after one use. Of course, this is not the Wunderwaffe that fixes mines & breaching alone. But to think of the possibilities of what drones could do at an industrial scale is... interesting. Lots of current weapon systems are being made obsolete in a very short time. I'm not sure if that is with precedent. If I only knew any military historians, I could ask... Hmmm, yes, flying (light and heavy) drone use expanded beyond ISR and PVR attack into other missions, breaching, counter ISR, infantry transport, casualty evac, resupply, etc... and anti-infantry (link), this one, machinegun armed, 200 rounds, allegedly 100% accurate on human sized targets out to 200m. Critically no mention of endurance. https://futurism.com/turkey-buy-drone-machine-gun From the article: "But as more and more armed drones emerge, it seems like just a matter of time before militaries decide to remove human operators from the equation altogether. In fact, that may already be happening as United States Defense Secretary Mark Esper accused China in November of selling autonomous killer drones to nations in the Middle East. So, while the drones that Asisguard plans to sell to Turkey later this month might require a human operator, there's a chance the next armed drones the nation adds to its arsenal will be autonomous — and that'll be when things get really scary." Are we seeing the early signs of two tracks and two legs being replaced by four nacelled rotors? My opinion, near future, next 50 years, replacement no, major supplement yes, maybe something like the tank joining the infantry-artillery team 1916-1945, potentially a whole new arm, perhaps a new, 'arm of decision,' as well as a new form of vehicle mobility in many existing arms. 'And discuss,' this last quote attributable to others, LLF I think. Edited December 23, 2023 by OBJ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 13 hours ago, dan/california said: This book contains four excellent case studies of some of the biggest turnovers in military technology from the last ~150 years. I thought it was excellent, and i learned a lot from it. Dan, you are amazing. I'm a third into the book now. My favorite quote so far, Danish politician Karl Kristian, '"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 But this is really great news, if it’s true. If our air command can manage this asset wisely, then this, along with the F-16, will be a significant strengthening of our air warfare capabilities 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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