How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-complain-about-the-quality-of-artillery-shells-from-the-dprk/

 

About the North Korean shells. Shows a picture of the propellant of three different charges. 

I can't find this screen again - Russian miliblogger writes Russian troops in Krynky area complain that Iranian shells have completely different ballistic features, but there are no firing tables for them. Also many shells have the same problem as N.Korean - enough big deviation in powder masses of charge. So, most of shoots even with equal settings lead to significant undershoots or overshoots far beyond standard dispersion ellipse

[Maciej Zwolinski]

48 minutes ago, Butschi said:

If your drones are cheap enough (compared to the targets)... I don't know, the battlefield calculus is certainly different. Is killing a tank 30% of the time while killing one of your guys... 1% (just to put a number here) of the time ok? For us not but for Russia?

Presumably it is not only the issue of friendly fire, but also the drone being susceptible to camouflage. I suppose the cheaper and smaller the seeker is, the easier would be to fool it by throwing a camo net over the tank

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

Does anyone know differently? I have no experience with Soviet era/ Russian artillery beyond seeing a D-30 set up and fired once from a distance at Fort Bragg (now Ft. Liberty).  The artilleryman in me is curious.

 

This is exactly what the Russian artillerymen are complaining about. He says that instead of balanced sheaves of gunpowder, in Korean charges the gunpowder is mixed, so there is no way to quickly change the firing range

[Carolus]

20 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

This is exactly what the Russian artillerymen are complaining about. He says that instead of balanced sheaves of gunpowder, in Korean charges the gunpowder is mixed, so there is no way to quickly change the firing range

DRNK shells have one setting: reaching Seoul.

They didn't tell the Russians about the feature. 

[Haiduk]

Polish "Rak" 120 mm SP-mortars on "Rosomak" APC basis arrived to Ukraine and were spotted in service of 44th mech.brigade

54 "Rak" mortars were ordered.

I suppose, these mortars would be look more naturally in air-assault units, but... On other hand this brigade already has "Rosomak" APCs and Leo 1A5

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Carolus]

 

I wondered last year if there was more to what we see in a positive sense. Sure, politicians are talking nonsense in public about Ukraine, but behind the curtains, the US is taking the lead, formulating a secret plan with Ukraine and tells militarily unexperienced Europeans to follow their lead. This completely embarrassing floundering of the Western countries in the face of this serious catastrophe - for Ukraine and the global order - must be performance. Must be a ruse. They cannot possibly be this dumb and corrupt.

Now, more than one year later, I wonder if it isn't going in the other direction. There is more going on than we see, but in the negative direction. The embarrassing floundering is actually the best "show of united strength" we can manage and behind closed doors, things are way worse.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Carolus

[Ultradave]

48 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

This is exactly what the Russian artillerymen are complaining about. He says that instead of balanced sheaves of gunpowder, in Korean charges the gunpowder is mixed, so there is no way to quickly change the firing range

I didn't see that in the list of complaints in the article, which is why I asked. It seemed the loading, quality and type of powder all varied, but the pictures appear to show ALL the powder charge wired together, apparently as it was designed to be. One size fits all, or as someone else said, charge measured to reach Seoul.    There isn't even any visible means improperly installed to have distinct charge levels.

In any case, the end result is sketchy powder charges, with the possibility of a lot of banana peeled howitzer tubes in the future. I'd not want to be a Russian artillery crewman, knowing the ammo was suspect. Of course, the average Russian artillery crewman may not know this.

Dave 

[Haiduk]

From Russian TG - reportedly direct hit of Grad rocket into engine compartmement of T-62 somewhere in Kherson oblast

[Haiduk]

Russian TG claims UKR troops landed and seized positions on Velykyi Potyomkin island south from Kherson. So, Russian milblogger assumes UKR forces aimed on Hola Prystan'. 

ISW went further and clamned whole island (this big semi-round one in the middle divided by small river) now under UKR control, but this is obvious exaggregation

In Krynky area UKR forces repelled next assault of Russians. 

Video of 35th marines brigade

"Magyar birds" except four tanks and about dozen of light armor for yesterday also destroyed Russian BTR with mounted RP-377 "Loraindit" EW system for SIGINT and supseession of UHF radio communications. Three FPVs were wasted to destroy it. Total for 10th of Dec were destroyed 4 tanks, 2 BMDs, 4 BTRs and supressed/destroyed 28 of 31 enemy FPV drones 

Russian TG clarified why general Teplinskiy established "officer assault detachemnts" - this is a method of "upbringing" for false reports about situation. Lower commanders scare to be punished for bad news, so reprort "all good, we push teh enemy", but instead situation completely different.  So, platoon and company commanders now have three options: to be punished for lying, to be pinished for truth, to be killed in next assault on Krynky

 

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile, north from Bakhmut situation is getting worse day by day. Even some reserves, moved here to help exhausted 77th air-assault brigade and several rifle and TD battalions, can't stop Russian advance here. Russians attack with fresh full equipped 98th VDV division and 200th motor-rifle brigade of coastal defense. Recently Russians moved here new-formed 299th VDV regiment of 98th VDV divisiosion, but keep it mostly in reserve, though some of it elements probably already involved in attack toward Rozdolivka, when main forces obviously have an objective to threat the rear of southern flank of UKR troops, which also forced to repell intensive Russian attacks. 

In first days of December main UKR strike force on southern flank - 3rd assault brigade was moved to rear for rest and replenishment. 

[Haiduk]

French TRF-1 howitzer on heavy mudded position

 

 

[FlemFire]

20 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

I wondered last year if there was more to what we see in a positive sense. Sure, politicians are talking nonsense in public about Ukraine, but behind the curtains, the US is taking the lead, formulating a secret plan with Ukraine and tells militarily unexperienced Europeans to follow their lead. This completely embarrassing floundering of the Western countries in the face of this serious catastrophe - for Ukraine and the global order - must be performance. Must be a ruse. They cannot possibly be this dumb and corrupt.

Now, more than one year later, I wonder if it isn't going in the other direction. There is more going on than we see, but in the negative direction. The embarrassing floundering is actually the best "show of united strength" we can manage and behind closed doors, things are way worse.

 

Maybe when these leaders go on T.V. and speak they're in actuality lying. Just a guess. 

[Haiduk]

Next post in Russian TG about new tactic of UKR forces in struggle with FPV drones - now UKR troops often use combinations of different ELINT and EW systems (both military and commercial developed) for detecting of drone operators position, and after this this location hit with various weapon, so they suffeerd sensitive losses. This forces many Russian operators to reject to go too close to zero line (it means on that directions, where such UKR ELINT operations are more significant)

[Haiduk]

On Kupiansk front Russians activated again, assaulting Syn'kivka village. They have some success near Pershotravneve and tried to advance near Orlianske, but here a result:

 

[Letter from Prague]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/russia-imprisoned-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-disappeared-ahead-of-russian-president-elections-vladimir-putin-2023-12-11-906850

Russia's jailed opposition leader Navalny disappears mysteriously ahead of Presidential elections

[Yet]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

 Is killing a tank 30% of the time while killing one of your guys... 1% (just to put a number here) of the time ok? For us not but for Russia?

 

... for us not, when fighting a non-existential war on foreign soil. But for Russia? 

[Tux]

On 12/10/2023 at 5:24 PM, The_Capt said:

If the RA can marshal and project hundreds of strike tac UAS capable of penetrations of 10s of km.  And the UA is doing the same...well this thing is essentially frozen no matter how much hardware we throw at the problem.

The only thing preventing this from also being true of traditional CAS assets is AD, right?

The hardware to throw at this problem is anti-drone weaponry.  First side to field an effective anti-drone solution* wins the ability to flip the board whenever they want and force a drone-free fight upon the enemy.

*As I’ve mentioned before my suggestion would be a cheap fighter-drone design that autonomously homes in on any airborne RF emitter.  Autonomous drones are a problem for another day.

[Haiduk]

Well, now we have Latin American battalion "Bolivar" - the group of Columbian and Bolivian fighters has grew up with other nationalities ) Initially about platoon of these fighters was in composition of "Karpatska Sich" volunteer unit and our soldiers had very good opinion about their capabiities.

In contray, fighters from Cuba in Russian army. Not only Nepal %)

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

27 Nov OpEd by a defence tech CEO, fwiw. Nothing too surprising, since we are already  watching his key points unfold in real time....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/amirhusain/2023/11/27/hyperwar-ascendant-the-global-race-for-autonomous-military-supremacy/

Today, Hyperwar seems to be the operative paradigm accepted by militaries the world over as a de facto reality. Indeed, the observe-orient-decide-act (OODA) loop is collapsing. Greater autonomy is being imbued in all manner of weapon systems and sensors....

We are in a new global competitive dynamic where US military efforts are immediately matched by China, whose growing domestic technological capabilities and decades-old mastery of scale production make it a potent competitor....

The U.S. efforts to develop unmanned systems are - unsurprisingly, given the history of US defense projects - facing challenges regarding cost.... As a nation, we need to figure out how to produce affordable, yet advanced, products....

This global proliferation points to a new reality; middle powers, if they focus on their production capacity, can develop potent, accurate force projection capabilities on large scales. Gone are the days when the aircraft carrier was the only way to “pay a visit” to a belligerent nation not contiguously connected with one's borders....

[Pablius]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Well, now we have Latin American battalion "Bolivar" - the group of Columbian and Bolivian fighters has grew up with other nationalities ) Initially about platoon of these fighters was in composition of "Karpatska Sich" volunteer unit and our soldiers had very good opinion about their capabiities.

 

 

 

Two things, the person talking sounds like a girl (!) or maybe a teenager, the accent is Argentinian (or possible but less likely Uruguayan, the River Plate area accent sounds similar in both countries).

[Haiduk]

Next day in Krynky - Russian stormed with about 10 armored vehicles. 5 were destroyed, 2 were hit, but could retreat, one tank still intact.

Russian TG report about today's attempt:

"Units of 328th air-assault regiment of 104th air-assaut division tried to attack from three sides, but a miracle isn't happened and enemy advantage in artilelry accuracy and FPV drones did own sad work. We lost 1 tank, 3 BMD-2, 1 BTR-82A and 20 men"

 

One of tank hit by "Magyar birds" for today. Need to say, on Krymky direction works likley more equipped and trained UAV / counter-UAV/ EW units - evcept "Magyar birds" this also 14th UAV regiment and some other. 

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

Deepening the 'denied zone' beyond, of all places, the 'shallow' Ukrainian infantry bridgehead at Krynki.

https://nitter.net/foosint

Don't forget the mines

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

As writes UKR soldier likely of 65th mech. brigade, there is bad situation near Robotyne. They stuck in the terrible mud around - many wheeled vehicles (jeeps, pick-ups) just stuck dead and abandoned in fields. Problems with ammo supply and evacuation. Russians use it in own favor and conducted several successfull assaults, throwing our troops to the SW outskirt of the village. 

From other source - UKR troops yesterday took back most of fortified position south from Robotyne, which was lost 2-3 days ago, but Russians with counter-attack could recapture trenches again, so now western part of trench system is under their control and eastern - through the road either contested area, or under UKR control

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

The only thing preventing this from also being true of traditional CAS assets is AD, right?

The hardware to throw at this problem is anti-drone weaponry.  First side to field an effective anti-drone solution* wins the ability to flip the board whenever they want and force a drone-free fight upon the enemy.

*As I’ve mentioned before my suggestion would be a cheap fighter-drone design that autonomously homes in on any airborne RF emitter.  Autonomous drones are a problem for another day.

Autonomous drones are likely going to happen in this war if it goes on too much longer.  The issue with CAS is supposed to be other fighter aircraft.  But now the battlespace so so packed with Denial assets and C4ISR they cannot seem to effectively penetrate.  I also suspect CAS itself is going to change.  More like Storm Shadow from 70km back than the traditional bombing runs we have seen.

When both sides can field c-UAS we should have a ball game but it is going to get weird.  Think clouds and bubbles around tactical groupings linked to operational level layers.  Ground forces are going to have to get lighter, faster and more self-sufficient...as well as whatever the future holds for camouflages.  Long LOCs are suicidal and impossible to protect.  The entire battlefield is illuminated.  Mass as we knew it will change and manoeuvre is likely going to be the last thing done, not the first.

But in reality...who knows.  I count at least four principles of war that are in the wind right now: Concentration of Force, Security, Surprise and Offensive Action.  What those things meant on 22 Feb, are not what they mean now.  

[Haiduk]

79th air-assault brigade repelled next attack in Novomykhailivka area, but situation here also getting worse - Russians already almost reached eastern outskirt of the village. Since several month of artillery and airstrikes they managed to demolish most of fortifications and UKR troops each time were forcing to withdrew back.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Haiduk