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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In theory that is probably doable, though I expect it would be rather slow to make it happen.

Steve

 Biden made at least some initial moves towards giving Ukraine the frozen Russian funds at the Federal Reserve. I still think it is more likely the Dems will eat enough crap on border policy to actually pass something, but if there is going to be a plan B, it is the frozen Russian money.

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https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/while-the-west-dithers-the-future-of-the-world-is-being-decided-in-ukraine/

For now, too many people in the West seem far more afraid of defeating Putin than of actually stopping him. They remain in denial over the scale of the civilizational challenge posed by Russia, and continue to labor under the comforting delusion that some kind of compromise can return the world to the prewar status quo. In reality, a confrontation with Putin’s Russia can no longer be avoided; it can only be won or lost. 

 

I can't put it any better, the whole article is worth a read.

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On 12/6/2023 at 10:30 AM, Haiduk said:

Likely successfull assasination by GUR/SBU

Deputy of LPR "parliament" Oleg Popov, tied with LPR intelligence was blew up in own car in Luhansk and later died in hospital. Though, some Russian milblogger claim this can be inner showdowns, because Popov belonged to group of Igor Kornet, former "minister of internal affairs" of LPR, who had a prob;lems woth Russian Investigatin Committee and was blown up and heavy wounded in May 2023 in Luhansk.

 image.png.523eeecdd44a8af569dfdddb0ca7b351.png

Also by unconfirmed information of several Russian TGs, former Ukrainian deputy Ilya Kiva, who fled to Russia, known with own crazy Zhyrinovskity-style statements, was found murdered today in Moscow oblst on territory of hotel. According one info he was shot dead, by other killed likely with stiletto blow to the temple   

image.png.481765f3d14c3d12cd1b98c16a04d525.png

Ok, at the risk of sounding really ignorant after 3071 pages of this thread, is the GUR/SBU Russian or Ukraine?

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3 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Ok, at the risk of sounding really ignorant after 3071 pages of this thread, is the GUR/SBU Russian or Ukraine?

It can be a little confusing.  GUR = Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, which is a part of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.  The GRU = Russian Military Intelligence.  Which means switching the letters can cause a lot of problems :)  The way to remember it us "RU = Russia", so GRU is Russian.

SBU is Ukrainian Security Services, which is responsible for both internal and external security of Ukraine.  Think of it as CIA and FBI combined in the US or MI5 and MI6 combined in the UK.  It reports directly to the President.

Steve

 

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Short article on Ukraine raising 5 new brigades.   Mentioned a bunch of pages ago, so not really new news.  Article gives some hints of how they are to be armed (i.e. not with Western IFVs or tanks):

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/07/ukraine-is-forming-five-new-mechanized-brigades-now-they-need-vehicles/?sh=3c0af7432f70

Steve

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On 12/6/2023 at 3:40 PM, dan/california said:

I just wrote and called both Senators and my Congressman about getting Ukraine funding done. Every single reader of this board who is a U.S. Citizen should do the same.

LOL, while I understand and sympathize with you, I live in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Massachusetts, so ALL of our Federal Representatives and Senators, and most of our State Representatives and State Senators are Democrats, and I refuse to associate with any of them since Ted Kennedy left the Senate. He at least would reach across the aisle and negotiate with the Republicans “for the good of the country” as would the Republicans of that era. Today, EVERYONE’s philosophy is “my way or the highway.” In both parties!

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There's plenty of ire to heap on the GOP for any number of things it is/isn't doing these days (at least the f'n hold on military promotions is almost over!), but that isn't relevant enough to Ukraine to keep the fires burning.  Anybody reading this thread likely knows what the stakes are and has a strong opinion about why we are where we are.  And I'm sure everybody wants it to get solved quickly.  So no need to keep that discussion going.

Steve

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On 12/6/2023 at 4:48 PM, Jarran said:

Hi, I have been lurking this thread since the start of the war and would just like to contribute with an exellent video from the Ward Carrol channel on youtube. This video talks about some stuff that has been in the talks lately, especially the air war and F-16.  Would also recommend his older videos with Justin Bronk.

 

Video Name: Justin Bronk on the Fate of the West if Russia Wins in Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmMclP8dlI0&t=1081s

 

 

// Jarran

Welcome to the thread! As you’ve probably deduced, we’re a cranky, contentious group (myself exempted as I’m a perfect voice of reason, most times) but don’t let that scare you off from commenting! Again, welcome aboard.

 

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1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Welcome to the thread! As you’ve probably deduced, we’re a cranky, contentious group (myself exempted as I’m a perfect voice of reason, most times) but don’t let that scare you off from commenting! Again, welcome aboard.

 

Yes, welcome aboard, but I thought I was the reasonable one......🤣

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"On November 30, at least 12 soldiers were killed and eight were injured in an explosion at a training facility at the Kuzmin military training ground in the Rostov region in southern Russia, bordering Ukraine, local media reported.

The soldiers died after around 20 marine brigade personnel lit a fire next to ammunition stocks during their lunch break. "An RPG-7 grenade launcher shell rolled into the fire and exploded," according to the news outlet 161.ru, citing a government source."

Putin's Guardsman Killed in Explosion at Military Range in Central Russia (newsweek.com)

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44 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

That was interesting, thanks.

Seems to be a small unit doing some sort of recon work in a gray zone as they didn't seem even remotely worried about infantry going after them.  One had a silencer, which come to think of I haven't seen a lot of lately.  The leader seems to either have been around for a while or is just putting on a show for the camera (or both!).  Either way, he seemed relatively comfortable.

We also have to keep in mind this was filmed by a propaganda embed and not just some random GoPro video.  Which means everything was carefully selected to portray the Russian forces in a positive light.

Steve

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/07/world/europe/poland-ukraine-truckers-blockade.html

Frontline Troops in Ukraine Feel Bite of Polish Truckers’ Protest

A border blockade by haulers angry that the European Union has suspended a permit system for their Ukrainian counterparts has led to problems with deliveries of wartime supplies.

 

Not been a good week.

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5 hours ago, Sojourner said:

"On November 30, at least 12 soldiers were killed and eight were injured in an explosion at a training facility at the Kuzmin military training ground in the Rostov region in southern Russia, bordering Ukraine, local media reported.

The soldiers died after around 20 marine brigade personnel lit a fire next to ammunition stocks during their lunch break. "An RPG-7 grenade launcher shell rolled into the fire and exploded,"

Do Russian soldiers actually get any training in anything useful?  At a training facilty ????

.

 

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"We want Russia to be faced with a decision by the end of 2024: either they have to sit down at the negotiating table on terms acceptable to Ukraine which means sovereignty and territorial integrity for all of Ukraine, or they will face a stronger Ukraine, which is backed by defense industrial base of the US and Europe. For Russia, this will be a difficult strategic choice."

US gameplan. Sounds good to me

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17 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

"We want Russia to be faced with a decision by the end of 2024: either they have to sit down at the negotiating table on terms acceptable to Ukraine which means sovereignty and territorial integrity for all of Ukraine, or they will face a stronger Ukraine, which is backed by defense industrial base of the US and Europe. For Russia, this will be a difficult strategic choice."

US gameplan. Sounds good to me

Gotta be a little bit skeptical here.  So basically the negotiation is for Russia to admit total and complete defeat - not sure that is going to go over.  Or face a stronger Ukraine backed by what is looking more and more like a shaky defence industrial and political base within the US and Europe.  For Russia there is no “choice” here.

I mean, hey cool if you can pull it off but this is not really a strategy.  It is more of a political statement and posturing.  In fact for Ukraine to be truly “stronger” the focus should be defence industry in Ukraine or Ukrainian owned/controlled.  Building a long term Ukrainian defence industry that can shore up this war is far more likely to make Russia think.

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Just a nice show of longer range fire from Bradley autocannon:

Saw translation lately of one of posts from Russian milbloggers, it was in roughly this manner: when Ukies storm our trenches riding on Amercian Bradleys, defenders tend to run away immediatelly or fight o the bitter end, nothing between. Fire from their cannons is worse than facing tanks; at least the latter need to raload and leave 10 sec. gap to run/hide, while autocannons sweep everything in the area, not even leaving time to surrender.

It seems Russians captured two Bradleys in working condition, and videos with them are flying everywhere in Mordor TV.

 

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3 hours ago, Joe982 said:

Do Russian soldiers actually get any training in anything useful?  At a training facilty ????

.

 

I'm sure they do, but only the ones that survive their first few weeks ;)

My guess is Russia has partially reorganized how it trains since they wrecked their traditional methodology by sending their prewar trainers to the frontlines early in the war.  But as with everything Russian, it is likely half arsed.  Add that to what seems to be a cultural absence of safety, either organized or individual, and you get fun stuff like this happening.

Steve

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5 hours ago, Carolus said:

No. And yet... no Russian breakthrough.

The whiskey glass is still half full.

Terratorial losses pretty much across the front where russia attacks with intent dont count?

Also, too early for critical stocks to have hit rock bottom yet.

I can assure you once the stockpiles of FPV and observation drones and other critical equiptment reach 0 you'll see movement like in Bakhmut and Soledar when the terrible weather and thick fog made drone observation impossible, advances that would have taken weeks of grinding happened overnight because nothing was stopping the meatwaves from overrunning outnumbered (and unwarned) defenders.

Hopefully, truckers and the US hostage taking resolve themselfs before that becomes a reality.

Edited by Kraft
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