How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[poesel]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Huh? Don’t really have a dog in this fight but Morocco is “North of the Tropic of Cancer”…no?

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
 

IANAL but Morocco is not an island:
"Article 6: ...or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;"

But hey, I think they can amend that when they join.

[JonS]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

IANAL but Morocco is not an island:
"Article 6: ...or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;"

But hey, I think they can amend that when they join.

Getting Georgia in is already going to take some rhetorical gymnastics, or a rewrite of Art.6

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Sure, there must be a footprint but telling by the results is not enough and in historical comparison, the scale is smaller by orders of magnitude. 

Also seemed the intelligence community that has the "boots on the ground" had the better situational understanding. Not the Pentagon that doesn't have its guys on the ground on the scale it is used to with partner forces. Britain has a bigger footprint than US in Ukraine and that is also a small presence

Here I am referring to the War on the Rocks crews reports; Kofman, Lee 

US SOF numbers on the ground is going to be classified, Kofman and Lee don’t know squat as to actual footprint.  Given the levels of US C4ISR integration I am fully confident that the US has pretty deep situational awareness as to what it’s going on.  But militaries tend to see only what they want to see, like anyone else really.  So they likely told themselves “well if we train and equip them…” I have heard the narrative that Ukrainians (or Russians) are failing because they can’t/won’t fight like us.  This completely discounts the realities they are actually under.  These become assumptions that can drive a lot of planning.  Clearly no one Red Teamed this course of action.

Look, it was definitely a screw up.  But throwing more “advisors” is not the solution if higher is not listening to those advisors regardless.  After this failure we will hopefully correct and support fighting this was Ukrainian style (again).  For all I can see Manoeuvre Warfare may be dead for awhile so clinging to it might just wind up making things worse.  Russia learned this, so maybe it is time we did too.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

IANAL but Morocco is not an island:
"Article 6: ...or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;"

But hey, I think they can amend that when they join.

True but apparently “North Atlantic area” has Morocco covered.  I mean if Romania got in, I think Morocco is safe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_the_oceans

[poesel]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

True but apparently “North Atlantic area” has Morocco covered.  I mean if Romania got in, I think Morocco is safe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_the_oceans

Well, Romania managed to squeeze in through that "North America & Europe" thing.

But Georgia is in the US anyway and Morocco has this Greek guy lifting the world - that should suffice.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, poesel said:

Well, Romania managed to squeeze in through that "North America & Europe" thing.

But Georgia is in the US anyway and Morocco has this Greek guy lifting the world - that should suffice.

They also actually have coastline on the North Atlantic.  Nice place actually spent 6 weeks there once.  Not sure why they would suddenly want to start lobbing HIMARs at Spain but who has more fun than people?

[Battlefront.com]

OK, let's move on from Morocco shall we?

Back to the "who screwed up more" with the counter offensive, I think the fundamental issue is that both the US and Ukraine saw the need to take back big chunks of territory this summer before we got into US political cycles and similar issues in other countries, but neither had a good concept of how to achieve it.

Last Spring when we were looking at various options some were thinking Ukraine should have concentrated in the Donbas.  I argued against this because the terrain was highly unfavorable, Russian troop density was much higher, and everything was closer to Russia's primary logistics centers.  Also for consideration is that much of that territory had been under Russian control since 2014, which would mean administering the recaptured territory could be problematic.  Plus, there was never a big payoff waiting to happen similar to a successful strike in the south. 

If Ukraine had instead attacked in the Donbas I think it wouldn't have achieved much more than it did in the south.

The only other options available were extremely high risk and prone to spectacular failure.  One would be a strategic sized amphibious assault over the Dnepr, another would be to push into Russia itself.  For obvious reasons, neither of these were selected.

So, we have the south as the only possibility of achieving the sort of success that both the US and Ukraine were looking for.  But neither had a viable plan to make that happen.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Moscow is lately again working heavily on Iranian direction. Axis of Evil seems to have new ugly baby.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

33 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Moscow is lately again working heavily on Iranian direction. Axis of Evil seems to have new ugly baby.

 

Not that I would want to sit down and have a beer with this guy, but I kinda agree with what he is saying here. One of the goals of Russia's invasion from the very beginning was to attack not just Ukraine but also attack our rule-based world order.

I wish more people who support appeasement or don't think this war is worth spending money on, could hear this guy talk. As someone who follows this war on social media to get all those war clips that I post here, I still feel a lot of people just don't seem to get it. 

[Joe982]

12 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

8 other Nepal merceneries got own contract-sign payment of 195 000 RU, but turned out more clever - after two weeks of service in rear or in training camp they just deserted.  

The Rubles can only be spent within Russia.  It cannot be converted to another currency. They cannot send the money overseas to family.  

Edited December 6, 2023 by Joe982

[Vet 0369]

13 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Used to subscribe, but won't even read it anymore after their Editorial Board article opining that step one to reducing the deficit is cutting back on veteran's benefits. Nope. 

The gist of their opinion being that veterans are getting partial disability but still able to work. Well, duh. It's not JUST about work. It's about life. What if the partial disability was that they lost a hand or lower arm and can no longer play piano, or they lost almost all of their hearing, or they were a marathon runner and lost a lower leg, or two....  I could go on, but it's about compensation for life altering injuries caused by being sent into combat. Sure, in *all* of those examples, the veteran can work, at some job, even good jobs, maybe even the job they were in before the service. But life overall has become different now, with great loss to the important things in life. It's not *just about work. As a former chief engineer who was our group leader told me once (and one of the smartest guys I ever knew), "You work to live, not live to work." 

Sorry for the off-topic but this is a huge sore spot with me. The WaPo got slaughtered in the comments for that editorial but they did not retract it or comment in any way. Someone pointed out that no one who wrote that garbage ever served. Not surprised.

We return you now to your regular warfare news.

To make an on-topic post, for myself, being essentially a Cold Warrior (although things in the 82d could occasionally get "interesting"), I would have *loved* to have the technology that is available for today's artillery. Watching all the videos of using drones to call and adjust artillery fire. These are real game changers in supporting fire. Imagine the savings in ammunition there has been because of the ability to see the enemy so much better, or to see him AT ALL, even when out of sight of any forward observer. And even at that, both sides burn through artillery ammo at a staggering rate. Coolest thing we had were the very first laser target designators and we thought that was Star Wars level stuff at the time. 

Dave

PS - I subscribe to the NYT and the Times of London, so if anyone wants an article gifted from those, let me know

 

Unfortunately, this concept isn’t new. My Father was severely injured while in the U.S.M.C. during WWII. His left leg was crushed from the hip to the ankle when a vehicle he was driving rolled over to the left, which threw his leg out and under it. My Grandparents received the telegram “We regret to inform you ….” He spent two years in the hospital, where they get him addicted to Morphine, which he had to kick. The U.S.M.C. discharged him on a medical discharge as a “Ruptured Duck” because his left leg was put back together with rods, pins, plates, and screws, and was 1 and 1/2 inches shorter than his right leg. He continued to work for the rest of his life as a fisherman, lobsterman, automotive body repair, and a Master Plumber. When he tried to get the U.S.M.C. to up his pension from 60 or 70% disabled to 100% disabled, they refused stating that they would up it when he couldn’t work anymore.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/us/politics/ukraine-aid-zelensky-congress.html

Ukraine Aid Falters in Senate as Republicans Insist on Border Restrictions

Legislation to send military aid to Ukraine and Israel was on the brink of collapse, after a briefing devolved into a screaming match one day before a critical test vote in the Senate.

 

Not good, I really think Biden needs to give the Republicans three quarters of what they want on this. Not because I agree with any if it, but because the border being a mess a different way for a few years is not an existential issue. Ukraine IS an existential issue.

If the Republicans do get what they want on the border the entire business lobby will abandon them as soon as the labor shortage really bites, and then maybe we can have a real conversation.

[danfrodo]

Some stuff I hadn't seen here.  Aftermath of the ambushed RU convoy in Kherson region.  Cluster bombs are a significant health hazard.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/5/2209834/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-launches-mass-drone-assault-on-Crimea?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Unfortunately, this concept isn’t new. My Father was severely injured while in the U.S.M.C. during WWII. His left leg was crushed from the hip to the ankle when a vehicle he was driving rolled over to the left, which threw his leg out and under it. My Grandparents received the telegram “We regret to inform you ….” He spent two years in the hospital, where they get him addicted to Morphine, which he had to kick. The U.S.M.C. discharged him on a medical discharge as a “Ruptured Duck” because his left leg was put back together with rods, pins, plates, and screws, and was 1 and 1/2 inches shorter than his right leg. He continued to work for the rest of his life as a fisherman, lobsterman, automotive body repair, and a Master Plumber. When he tried to get the U.S.M.C. to up his pension from 60 or 70% disabled to 100% disabled, they refused stating that they would up it when he couldn’t work anymore.

sadly stories like this are too much the norm.  Look at the fight it took to pass the compensation fund for 9/11 responders.

[kimbosbread]

48 minutes ago, sburke said:

sadly stories like this are too much the norm.  Look at the fight it took to pass the compensation fund for 9/11 responders.

It’s like expendable workers during the pandemic… wait I thought I said essential…

Meanwhile schmucks like me are working from tropical islands drinking light beer and diving.

[Fernando]

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Huh? Don’t really have a dog in this fight but Morocco is “North of the Tropic of Cancer”…no?

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
 

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

Article 6

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France ², on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

 

2. On January 16, 1963, the North Atlantic Council noted that insofar as the former Algerian Departments of France were concerned, the relevant clauses of this Treaty had become inapplicable as from July 3, 1962.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Fernando

[Letter from Prague]

16 hours ago, JonS said:

You make it sound like the ANA debacle, barely 2 years later - equip a culturally different army with its own doctrine and its own tactical context kinda-sorta like us and expect them to fight like us, then stand around with pursed lips scratching your head when it all goes a bit pear shaped.

I don't think the Ukrainians are "culturally different" or comparable with ANA. Sounds kinda horrible to say, tbh.

From what we've seen, they implemented the Western doctrine correctly - but it doesn't work without hundreds of invisible airplanes ... or maybe just doesn't work anymore period.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[JonS]

All Armies have a distinct culture. This should not be a controversial proposition. The British Army is different to the French Army which is different to the German Army which is different to the US Army. Hell, the British Army is different to the armies of Australia, Canada and New Zealand despite their mutually shared history. For simple examples; look at an army's field rations, since food is a pretty strong expression of culture, or the cut and tailoring of an army's field and dress uniforms. Doctrine is also part of the difference, and even within NATO there are variations in doctrine, because doctrine too is a reflection of culture.

Ukraine has done a pretty impressive job at adopting a sort of generic smeared-out "Western" or "NATO" doctrine, but it isn't their doctrine in part because it doesn't reflect their culture. As far as I can tell from this distance, old Soviet doctrine remains a pretty strong influence on the Ukrainian Army, along with the stuff they've - uniquely among European armies - had to learn since 2014 and especially since 2022.

Also, I wasn't comparing the Ukrainian Army to the ANA. I was noting that a one-size-fits-all here's-some-left-over-kit now-go-fight-like-us approach to building foreign military capability doesn't have a great track record. This too should not be a controversial proposition. Afghanistan has some incredible warriors and military commanders, and their culture is clearly able to build a fully capable and competent military. The unfortunate thing is that we only really realised that in mid-2021 as they were destroying everything that we'd tried to build over the past 20 years, by fighting the way they wanted to.

Edited December 6, 2023 by JonS

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Fernando said:

to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

 Intent versus letter.  Puts Caribbean nations in a weird spot too.

[Haiduk]

National Guard FPV operators (likley from the 11th public order security brigade) detsroyed newest Russian SAM S-350 "Vityaz' " in Kherson oblast

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Not good, I really think Biden needs to give the Republicans three quarters of what they want on this. Not because I agree with any if it, but because the border being a mess a different way for a few years is not an existential issue. Ukraine IS an existential issue.

If the Republicans do get what they want on the border the entire business lobby will abandon them as soon as the labor shortage really bites, and then maybe we can have a real conversation.

The Republicans are essentially a revolutionary movement at this point and are going way beyond what was considered acceptable (i.e. politics ends at the waters edge) in the era of consensus. That said, as you note above, the border has been hurting Democrats politically while there hasn't been an easy way for Democrats to address it. If, perforce, the White House must accept a harsh border law to safeguard the global order, you can quite easily envisage a Dobbs situation where the politics starts running in the opposite direction. 

It is my hope that the WH can wrangle out a deal from the most irresponsible opposition in my lifetime in American politics. Ukraine aid is at best 50/50 right now. 

[Haiduk]

Some other news about FPV drones from headliner of this direction voolunteer Serhiy Sternenko, who first became to fundrise many money for FPVs. Alas, Russians quickly understood effectivemess of this weapoan and they order on MoD level dozen southands of FPVs directly from China (when our volunteer after Chineese "embargo" for using commercial drones in warfare are forced to by drones and spare parts through mediatrs) and invested huge money in local manufacturing of FPV drones, which assemble even in the scholls. And let even Russians often complain their domestic-assembled FPVs have too low range, poor quality and relativly larg number of faults, their quantity anyway gradually come to quality on some directions of front

Ukraine lost much of time, because neither former Minister of Defense, nor many of militaries from generals in high HQs to even company commanders didn't take in serious theese "kid toys" and "wedding drones", so almost all direction of FPVs, drones with grenade-dropping devices and tactical recon drones like Mavic and Autel lied on the shoulders of volunteer funds. "Army of drones", being formally state program, but anyway exists for donations and embrace mostly heavier class of drones, including long-range kamkadze. Only from 2024 the state at last funded development of FPV sector.   

So, some takes from Serhiy Sternenko:

For understanding of the scale: 40 000 thermal vision kamikadze Russians ordered only on one factory (in China)

And this is sad irony post about problem of attitude to drone in Ukrainan army on higher HQs level. 

We are against duties of tankers in army, because we weren't taught this in 1896 year, it's not allowed. 

This is about an overdue solution to increse infantry units effectivenes by establishing special drone units in battalions and maybe better in the companies. Because existing RUBAKs (Company of Control of Unmanned Aviation Complexes) in composition of brigades has some other tasks and they are not always have a time to use FPVs and grenade dropping by infantry calls. And sometime all these their "toys" are "out-of-shtat" equipment, supplied by volunteers.

So, battalions and companies are forming own drone units spontaneously (and often by initiative of soldiers themselves), but they officially don't exist. Drone teams are usual riflemen, logists etc, who passed a courses of FPV operators, organized by volunteers (and there are many cases company/battalion commanders don't allow to servismen to depart to studing even if they have General Staff order). From one hand this weaken their "domestic" squads and platoons, because they involved in FPV control, not into own direct duty, but on other hand this is huge multiplicator of company/battalion effectiveness. Two days ago "Khorn Group" (but they are likely official RUBAK of 118th mech.brigade) repelled Russian attack on Stepove, not allowing them even approach withg own FPV attacks. But alas, manu commanders of even company/battalion level to this time treat FPVs as something auxiliary and even in rare cases prohibit to soldiers to gather money for FPV drones, because they didn't want to deal with tonns of papers to register these drones and then to write off them after usage. And thet still believe in Soviet doctrine of artillery, mass of armor and infantry chains). HQs prefer to use soldiers in direct attacks, when many  tasks could solve drones, saving the lives and health. They even don't understand this from economical side - it's much cheaper to buy 1000$ FPV drone, which will destroy ATGM or MG team, than state will be forced to pay 400 000$ for each killed UKR soldier, who tried to capture a fortifiacation with these ATGM/MG.     

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

One time I wanted to visit Emirates to see their high-tech paradise in the desert... Now UAE are died for me

 

[Haiduk]

UKR forces hit fuel depot in Donetsk. Three days ago the same facility was hit with drone in Luhansk

Likely not only a fuel, sounds of detonating small-caliber ammo are heard too

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Carolus]

43 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

For understanding of the scale: 40 000 thermal vision kamikadze Russians ordered only on one factory (in China)

And this is sad irony post about problem of attitude to drone in Ukrainan army on higher HQs level. 

We are against duties of tankers in army, because we weren't taught this in 1896 year, it's not allowed. 

Christ on a stick. 

While the EU funds are blocked by Ruski Orban and the US funds are blocked by Ruski Maga, China will dump a literal boatload of hurt onto Ukraine.

And the Ukrainian advantages rely mostly on the initiative and smarts of the lower ranks.

I know why I burn my supplementary bank account on every drone request I see a Ukrainian unit make.