How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Calling all fans of military engineering.

I like these custom Ukrainian vehicles a lot more than the budget Bond/Mad Max BMW I posted yesterday. Very interesting.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Year end perspective on Bakhmut and the summer counter-offensive.  A bunch of pages ago I argued the same points, especially that Bakhmut is why Wagner is no longer Wagner:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-fight-bakhmut-russia-wagner-forces-costly-clearly-paid-off-2023-11&post-bottom-piano-recommendations

The two primary sources for this interview are both from ISW, so I'm not surprised I find myself in agreement with their conclusions

Steve

My only concern/counter point is that Bakhmut also pinned down UA forces and gave the RA breathing room further along the line.  While everyone was watching the slaughter at Bakhmut the RA was quietly laying minefields in depth.  And that cost Ukraine the Summer ‘23 offensive (or at least on the surface).  I am not sure if they had pulled back from Bakhmut and preserved their forces they could have pushed back along the line and disrupted RA obstacle preps.  However, by getting pulled into Bakhmut they guaranteed freedom of action for the RA elsewhere.

Best way to breach a minefield is to kill the guys before they can lay the damned thing.  Based on the density I have seen the RA pulled off this damned Putin Line pretty much unmolested.  

[LongLeftFlank]

With tongzhi (同志) like these....

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/27/ukrainian-military-discover-chinese-mines-in-russian-positions/

(for 'mine' read 'mortar shell', although it could certainly be turned into an IED)

The Russian military does not have indigenous 60mm mortars in service that could fire this ammunition.

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, Carolus said:

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, acrashb said:

You may then enjoy this article from Human Progress:

How Dignity-First Development Can Spread Liberal Democracy Better - Human Progress

And for all of the numerous doomsayers here, with the exception of human freedom (which has taken a hit in the last decade or so, as measured by Freedom House), everything gets better all the time.  Just open your eyes to evidence vs. media trying to terrify you.  I suggest skimming the stats found in Human Progress.  While one should not expect results when bringing facts to a feelings fight - I think the people here can do better than that.

As a historian I totally agree.  I have had so many arguments with so many "the world is worse now than ever before" people (left and right) over the last 30 years it never ceases to amaze me how ignorant and myopic people are about The Big Picture.  Even when there's definitive backwards steps (and the US is flirting with another huge one in 2024) it still gets better over time.  Hard to ignore the suffering that happens with backwards steps (oh, like WW2 for example), but from the historical perspective it's just the costs of progress.

Unfortunately, all of this historical precedent goes out the window if certain conditions continue on as they are.  Nuclear war has been the traditional party pooper concept, but now we have climate change.  Unlike the indefinite pause of nuclear war, climate change is already having a tangible impact and will only get worse as the years go on.  Nobody quite knows what climate change will ultimately mean for our species, so too soon to say we'll snuff ourselves out.  However, climate change + resource wars + bio tech + AI tech + nukes definitely puts Humanity at risk in a way that it never has been before.

We may not be in the End Times, however I think it's pretty clear we're entering a phase of ramifications for partying too hard over the past 70 years.  Hangovers aren't fun.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

My only concern/counter point is that Bakhmut also pinned down UA forces and gave the RA breathing room further along the line.  While everyone was watching the slaughter at Bakhmut the RA was quietly laying minefields in depth.  And that cost Ukraine the Summer ‘23 offensive (or at least on the surface).  I am not sure if they had pulled back from Bakhmut and preserved their forces they could have pushed back along the line and disrupted RA obstacle preps.  However, by getting pulled into Bakhmut they guaranteed freedom of action for the RA elsewhere.

My counter to that if Russia had been given Bakhmut on a silver platter, the 10s of thousands of intact troops it had would have been moved elsewhere to cause any number of problems for Ukraine.  Knowing Russia it would have been another offensive somewhere that might not have offered Ukraine such favorable odds.

Nope, I'm sticking with of all the crappy options Ukraine had in front of it, going with a proven way of crushing a large amount of Russia's available combat power over something that ultimately didn't matter was the right call.

Separate from that...

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Best way to breach a minefield is to kill the guys before they can lay the damned thing.  Based on the density I have seen the RA pulled off this damned Putin Line pretty much unmolested.  

Why Russia was able to build up such dense defenses in the south is on a very short list of things from this war I hope to someday get a definitive answer about.  The answer is probably extremely complicated and probably boils down to multiple failures.

The other question I keep coming back to is how Ukraine could have not realized the insane density and depth of these positions prior to assaulting them.  Or if they did, how they could have thought they would breach them and still have forces necessary for exploitation.  Because hindsight clearly shows they didn't have the right plan for the challenge.

Steve

[acrashb]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

[...]Even when there's definitive backwards steps (and the US is flirting with another huge one in 2024) it still gets better over time. 

[...]Hard to ignore the suffering that happens with backwards steps (oh, like WW2 for example), but from the historical perspective it's just the costs of progress.

[...]

Unfortunately, all of this historical precedent goes out the window if certain conditions continue on as they are. 

1) if you're referring to The Donald, unless the Democrats field a viable candidate pretty soon, The Donald will be the 47th President of the United States.  So whatever preparations you deem necessary, I'd start them now...

2) It truly is.  Sweeping statements like "the Plague of Justinian hastened the end of the Roman Empire" sweep enormous suffering to the side.  In the immortal words of Heinlein, talking about ordinary people, "Perhaps their lives have no cosmic significance, but they have feelings. They can hurt."

3) I had not intended to take advancement in social and physical technologies for granted - "past performance is no guarantee of future results" - these advancements and the relatively recent radical upturn in their pace are not an accident.  I just wanted to take some wind out of the doomsayer's sails, because the only sure way to lose is to give up - it is the sufficient condition.  Anyway, Human Progress is a sure antidote to the drumbeat of negativity from legacy media.

Regarding the future, given that we appear to be the only sentient life in at least the Milky Way, a) we may be about to be challenged by The Great Filter and b) it is important both to us (for obvious reasons) and everything else (because sentience gives meaning to the universe) that we overcome it.

One of the clear steps is avoiding nuclear escalation due to the Russo-Ukraine war (see how cunningly I brought this back on-topic?), and as the_capt often says, this isn't a given, even in peacetime ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls ). 

Edited November 27, 2023 by acrashb

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/27/ukrainian-military-discover-chinese-mines-in-russian-positions/

(for 'mine' read 'mortar shell', although it could certainly be turned into an IED)

The Russian military does not have indigenous 60mm mortars in service that could fire this ammunition.

 

 

Or convert into drone's air dropped bomb.

Feel like this is from the same batch reported back in Sept 2022. It says that batch of 60mm was donated by Albania, captured by Russia in May then recaptured by AFU during counteroffensive.

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Chibot Mk IX

[Vet 0369]

On 11/26/2023 at 7:55 AM, The_Capt said:

Wow we moved onto US Bashing Day fast.

As a Citizen of the U.S., and one who has worked in the Military/Industrial field and the Private (non Military/Industrial fields, including more than 20-years in Government Service (USMC, USMCR, and FAA), I must agree with LLF’s assessment of the Executive and Legislative Branches of the U.S. Government. I don’t view his statements as “U.S. bashing.”

Edited November 28, 2023 by Vet 0369

[Vet 0369]

On 11/26/2023 at 2:13 PM, Haiduk said:

Again about sanctions and bypassing...

 

But, but, but, …. If Germany clamps down on these sales, some other manufacturer, in some other country, will make all that money! We can’t allow that to happen.

[Vet 0369]

On 11/26/2023 at 3:04 PM, Letter from Prague said:

What are you working out, if you have no flesh?

His mind. He is doing mental exercises!

[Vet 0369]

On 11/26/2023 at 4:34 PM, Haiduk said:

So, natural right of nation to defend own culture and don't turn into "multicultural Babylon" to be gradually "swallowed" by newcomers is a sign of nazism? As for me this is a sign of nation health. 

You have wrong opinion about Ukrainians, I should say. We never will greeting hordes of non-european culture migrants here. Some Muslim communities live here historically, but they are minor, and they are more "secular Muslims", so they don't make problems for us

With so many comments and reply’s regarding the illegal immigration issues, as far as I’m concerned, I think the angst her is directed primarily to “illegal immigrants”, not the legal ones.

That said, perhaps you all need to put a cork in it and stop distracting the rest of us from the main purpose of this forum, which is to discuss the illegal war of Russia in Ukraine.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

My counter to that if Russia had been given Bakhmut on a silver platter, the 10s of thousands of intact troops it had would have been moved elsewhere to cause any number of problems for Ukraine.  Knowing Russia it would have been another offensive somewhere that might not have offered Ukraine such favorable odds.

Maybe…but.  The RA was (and still is) operationally hobbled.  Lateral movement of 10k troops to cover obstacle prep or an offensive somewhere else would have taken time, particularly in the middle of winter.  Granted many of those troops would still be breathing but there is a chance those obstacles would not have been as deep.

The UA ceded initiative to the RA over the winter.  To be fair, they may have been spent due to the Fall ‘22 offensive.  And then there is also the reality that if it wasn’t Bakhmut it probably would have been somewhere else.

As I said, I am not sure it would have mattered but it was a course of action.  Getting pinned at Bakhmut paid off in dead Russians, but it also locked in those obstacle belts.  There was a chance to at least do something about them with more troops actively hitting and sniping down south.  The RA did not have much of a covering force in the center.

Finally Bakhmut did not pay off enough.  The was enough RA left to successfully defend over the summer.  That is the brutal truth.  We will see if the RA’s back was indeed broken but indications now are that they dodged the bullet.  

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

As a Citizen of the U.S., and one who has worked in the Military/Industrial field and the Private (non Military/Industrial fields, including more than 20-years in Government Service (USMC, USMCR, and FAA), I must agree with LLF’s assessment of the Executive and Legislative Branches of the U.S. Government. I don’t view his statements as “U.S. bashing.”

As a citizen of Canada who has been in the military for over 35 years and has worked all levels of tactical, operational, strategic and political.  I can definitely say that any defence of LLF is not supported by my nation.

[zinz]

52 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

But, but, but, …. If Germany clamps down on these sales, some other manufacturer, in some other country, will make all that money! We can’t allow that to happen.

Well that graph is only half of the picture. A lot of goods were before the sanctions first sold to Russia and then on to countries like Kyrgyzstan. So the direct trade between Germany and Kyrgyzstan was expected to rise anyways even with perfect sanctions. How much this effect or circumventing sanctions or totally unrelated effects change this singular data point is without extra data complete guess work and not enough to draw any conclusions out of. 

[Vet 0369]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As a citizen of Canada who has been in the military for over 35 years and has worked all levels of tactical, operational, strategic and political.  I can definitely say that any defence of LLF is not supported by my nation.

LOL, YOU TWO SHOULD JUST GET A ROOM!

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

LOL, YOU TWO SHOULD JUST GET A ROOM!

Oh that is fine.  We can smoke cannabis too.  We just can’t defend him on the internet….it is a law, got Royal assent and everything.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

1) if you're referring to The Donald, unless the Democrats field a viable candidate pretty soon, The Donald will be the 47th President of the United States.  So whatever preparations you deem necessary, I'd start them now...

Way ahead of you!  I live close to the Canadian border and have a good buddy who mans a small border crossing.  Once across, I know where The_Capt lives and I will demand to surf his couch.

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

3) I had not intended to take advancement in social and physical technologies for granted - "past performance is no guarantee of future results" - these advancements and the relatively recent radical upturn in their pace are not an accident.  I just wanted to take some wind out of the doomsayer's sails, because the only sure way to lose is to give up - it is the sufficient condition.

Totally agree.  I'm more concerned about much bigger things for our species than an election cycle or what Vlad can do before he (or his body doubles) can do before dying.  However, as the great Hari Seldon was all about, I think it is our duty to do what we can to reduce the suffering our idiot species insists on imposing on itself.  Entropy sucks, but it sucks worse when nobody is pushing back against it.

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

One of the clear steps is avoiding nuclear escalation due to the Russo-Ukraine war (see how cunningly I brought this back on-topic?), and as the_capt often says, this isn't a given, even in peacetime ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls ). 

This is why I have been a voice for caution in how we escalated support for Ukraine.  My criticism of the West is that once a Russian Red Line was tested and found a bluff, we should have gone all in on whatever it was we were testing for.  As much as I think MBTs won't win this war, I still don't understand why Ukraine doesn't have several hundred Abrams already in the field.

Steve

[chris talpas]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

The other question I keep coming back to is how Ukraine could have not realized the insane density and depth of these positions prior to assaulting them.  Or if they did, how they could have thought they would breach them and still have forces necessary for exploitation.  Because hindsight clearly shows they didn't have the right plan for the challenge.

Steve

Almost Kursk like in preparation.  Did the delays in starting the campaign arise out of waiting for the shiny new kit? Waiting which allowed further fortifications.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe…but.  The RA was (and still is) operationally hobbled.  Lateral movement of 10k troops to cover obstacle prep or an offensive somewhere else would have taken time, particularly in the middle of winter.  Granted many of those troops would still be breathing but there is a chance those obstacles would not have been as deep.

They would have been able to reposition those forces prior to Ukraine launching its counter offensive.  Or Russia could have pulled them back into Donetsk/Luhansk and waited for Ukraine to start before moving them to the front somewhere.  Maybe the Kupyansk-Kreminna offensive they launched would have done much better than it did with those reinforcements.  Or maybe they would have started pushing against Avdiivka earlier.  Or put them in the south and kept the forces along the Dnepr where they were, thus thwarting any moves across the river.

All of these are highly probable because the only thing Russia would not have done was leave them out of the fight.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The UA ceded initiative to the RA over the winter.  To be fair, they may have been spent due to the Fall ‘22 offensive.  And then there is also the reality that if it wasn’t Bakhmut it probably would have been somewhere else.

One of the most consistent things Russia has done is go on the attack whenever possible and often when it was highly inadvisable by an reasonable military standard.  If they hadn't burnt up their forces at Bakhmut the best case for Ukraine is they would have burnt them up someplace else where they had equal success slaughtering them.  But when I think back to that time I believe the chances are things would have wound up being worse for Ukraine.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

As I said, I am not sure it would have mattered but it was a course of action.  Getting pinned at Bakhmut paid off in dead Russians, but it also locked in those obstacle belts.  There was a chance to at least do something about them with more troops actively hitting and sniping down south.  The RA did not have much of a covering force in the center.

I can't agree with this because it's predicated on all those 10s of thousands of dead Russians not having countered whatever Ukraine did with its saved forces.  Remember, Russia probably lost 4x as many as Ukraine did, so if Ukraine pulled out of Bakhmut and saved 20,000 casualties then Russia would have 80,000 to put somewhere else.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Finally Bakhmut did not pay off enough.  The was enough RA left to successfully defend over the summer.  That is the brutal truth.  We will see if the RA’s back was indeed broken but indications now are that they dodged the bullet.  

Bakhmut did not pay off in the sense that it did not allow Ukraine to break through the south, but there is a pretty good chance that had it not fought at Bakhmut then the summer counter offensive might have gone even worse than it did and Ukraine might also have lost significant territory in Luhansk and/or Donetsk.  So when I "what if" this thing, I still come down on the side of Bakhmut likely being the best of a bunch of crappy options for Ukraine.

Regardless, I think it's pretty clear that if Ukraine pulled out of Bakhmut significantly earlier than it had, pretty boy Prig would still be alive and Wagner intact.  I see the fall of Wagner as a pretty significant benefit to Ukraine.

Steve

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

got Royal assent and everything.

With multi-partisan support.  Only Elizabeth May abstained.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Almost Kursk like in preparation.  Did the delays in starting the campaign arise out of waiting for the shiny new kit? Waiting which allowed further fortifications.

 

My guess, and it is just that, is Ukraine was waiting for the shiny new kit because it wasn't confident it could get through the defenses it believed were in front of it.  My sense is that during the "hurry up and wait" period in June Russia was reinforcing positions that Ukraine didn't even get to.  In other words, the positions Ukraine struggled to breach were largely that way before the campaign season was viable.

Steve

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

As a citizen of Canada who has been in the military for over 35 years and has worked all levels of tactical, operational, strategic and political.  I can definitely say that any defence of LLF is not supported by my nation.

A man should be also judged by his deeds.  We have benefited much from his efforts in maps and mods.

 Says this non-esteemed citizen of Canada. 

[Harmon Rabb]

 

 

Leopard in the snow. Snow Leopard?

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[chris talpas]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My guess, and it is just that, is Ukraine was waiting for the shiny new kit because it wasn't confident it could get through the defenses it believed were in front of it.  My sense is that during the "hurry up and wait" period in June Russia was reinforcing positions that Ukraine didn't even get to.  In other words, the positions Ukraine struggled to breach were largely that way before the campaign season was viable.

Steve

That is a good perspective.  Makes one wonder about how much more mines have been put in place further back.  Given the near impossibility of significant breaching operations in this new age of drones and drone directed high precision artillery, how do you avoid stalemate?

Could a concerted effort on the logistics chain using longer ranged Atacams and friendly ISR assets over the winter cause forces to wither on the vine?